Model of Travel in London Phase 3
Feb 26, 2021
Mode and destination choice model estimation
|PDF file||5.7 MB||
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.
This report documents the development of the mode-destination travel demand models that form part of TfL's Model of Travel in London (MoTiON). The travel demand models are estimated using statistical methods using observed data on individual's travel choices in London taking account of the characteristics of the different travel options available to them and their personal and household characteristics.
A focus of the model estimation work was to specify the models so ensure that changes in monetary cost result in good compliance with UK realism testing guidance. This involved the use of a consistent income segmentation across all non-business purposes and the transfer of cost sensitivity functions from purposes where the functions were well estimated to other purposes.
A 'bus propensity' segmentation was introduced to the model specifications so that the model represented a 'high bus propensity group' who are much more likely to choose bus than the rest of the population. Enhancements were also made to the model specifications so that the models are better placed to predict growth in ride-hailing services and, in the longer term, demand for autonomous vehicles.
Summary and recommendations
Tour building note
Model parameter results
Shopping centre zones
The research described in this report was prepared for Transport for London (TfL) and conducted by RAND Europe.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.