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Model of Travel in London Phase 3

Mode and destination choice model estimation

by James Fox, Bhanu Patruni

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This report documents the development of the mode-destination travel demand models that form part of TfL's Model of Travel in London (MoTiON). The travel demand models are estimated using statistical methods using observed data on individual's travel choices in London taking account of the characteristics of the different travel options available to them and their personal and household characteristics.

A focus of the model estimation work was to specify the models so ensure that changes in monetary cost result in good compliance with UK realism testing guidance. This involved the use of a consistent income segmentation across all non-business purposes and the transfer of cost sensitivity functions from purposes where the functions were well estimated to other purposes.

A 'bus propensity' segmentation was introduced to the model specifications so that the model represented a 'high bus propensity group' who are much more likely to choose bus than the rest of the population. Enhancements were also made to the model specifications so that the models are better placed to predict growth in ride-hailing services and, in the longer term, demand for autonomous vehicles.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Modelling assumptions

  • Chapter Three

    Data

  • Chapter Four

    Model specification

  • Chapter Five

    Model results

  • Chapter Six

    Model validation

  • Chapter Seven

    Summary and recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Tour building note

  • Appendix B

    Model parameter results

  • Appendix C

    Shopping centre zones

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for Transport for London (TfL) and conducted by RAND Europe.

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