The leaders of countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia are cognizant of climate change mitigation efforts, and some have plans to diversify their economies and reduce carbon emissions. The authors conducted an examination of the critical mineral resources, extraction, trade flow, and requirements for the clean energy transition for the 21 countries in U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility.

From Mines to Markets in the Middle East and Central Asia

Critical Mineral Suppliers and Dependencies in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility

Fabian Villalobos, Emily Allendorf, Jo Caulkins, Sophia Charan, Elisa Yoshiara, Richard Silberglitt, Zohan Hasan Tariq

ResearchPublished Sep 18, 2024

Around the world, countries are making commitments to reduce consumption of fossil fuels to address climate change: The leaders of countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia are cognizant of these efforts, and some have plans to diversify their economies and reduce carbon emissions. Toward that end, many countries are looking to produce and procure clean energy technologies, but these technologies are reliant on critical minerals. Strategic and economic competition between the United States, Russia, and China has been the driver of many so-called de-risking policies, which aim to diversify critical mineral supply chains.

The authors of this report conducted an examination of the critical mineral resources, extraction, trade flow, and requirements for the clean energy transition for the 21 countries in U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility (AOR). Deep-dive case studies were used to provide more context into the relationship of specific country and commodity combinations of interest. This report may be of interest to policymakers in the United States and other Western countries who are concerned with (1) diversifying critical mineral supply chains or (2) the potential for conflict surrounding mineral development; regional policymakers who want to develop domestic capacity for extraction, processing, and production of clean energy technologies; finance, mining, automotive, and clean energy technology companies in the private sector; and others.

Key Findings

  • There is substantial untapped potential in the AOR that, if developed, could contribute toward diversifying global supply chains. There is a broad distribution of resources and reserves in these countries; some extraction or processing is already underway in more than half of them.
  • The AOR's reliance on external suppliers for several critical minerals, including China and Russia, reflects supply chain vulnerabilities. China and Russia have previously leveraged supply chain dependencies for economic coercion. Countries in the AOR may be able to fulfill some of this demand, which presents an opportunity to build intra-regional value chains and de-risk.
  • The potential for local conflict and disruption underscores the importance of monitoring and mitigating conflict to ensure the security and stability of mineral supply chains. Although Afghanistan, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and Yemen possess significant mineral resources, these countries have been highlighted on the conflict-affected and high-risk areas list.
  • In the region, Kazakhstan is a strategic supplier of critical minerals.
  • Access to critical minerals is needed to meet the stated climate goals of countries in the AOR. Climate plans, as described in these countries' Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contributions, outline these countries' intent to increase deployment of clean energy technologies and diversify economies by developing minerals and manufacturing sectors. Some have explicit plans to manufacture clean energy technologies. These plans may increase demand for critical minerals in the region, necessitating access to capital, mapping, workforce development, and the transfer of technical capabilities.

Recommendations

  • Policymakers in the United States and other Western countries should facilitate the development of the mineral resources and production capabilities of countries in the AOR.
  • U.S. Central Command should monitor the region for (1) mineral-related conflict and (2) the activity of strategic competitors in the AOR.

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Citation

RAND Style Manual
Villalobos, Fabian, Emily Allendorf, Jo Caulkins, Sophia Charan, Elisa Yoshiara, Richard Silberglitt, and Zohan Hasan Tariq, From Mines to Markets in the Middle East and Central Asia: Critical Mineral Suppliers and Dependencies in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility, RAND Corporation, RR-A2914-1, 2024. As of October 10, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2914-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Villalobos, Fabian, Emily Allendorf, Jo Caulkins, Sophia Charan, Elisa Yoshiara, Richard Silberglitt, and Zohan Hasan Tariq, From Mines to Markets in the Middle East and Central Asia: Critical Mineral Suppliers and Dependencies in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2914-1.html.
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This research was sponsored by U.S. Central Command and conducted within the International Security and Defense Program of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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