This research explores future trends and developments that may impact provision and demand for mental health services among the UK Armed Forces community out to 2045. Using a scenario planning approach, the research identified five scenarios that capture varied Defence and societal contexts which exert different pressures on the Armed Forces mental health sector.

Future scenarios for mental health in the UK Armed Forces community

Linda Slapakova, Elizabeth Moisan, Erik Silfversten

ResearchPublished May 14, 2026

The UK Armed Forces charities sector supports a sizeable community of UK Armed Forces personnel, veterans and families who can face unique risks and challenges to their mental health. To effectively plan for the future, the Armed Forces charities sector requires a better understanding of what the future landscape of military mental health may look like. This includes understanding how the demand and need for mental health services among the Armed Forces community may evolve, but also how mental health treatments may develop.

RAND Europe was therefore commissioned by Combat Stress, with funding from the Forces in Mind Trust, to develop a range of future scenarios for Armed Forces community mental health out to 2045. This included identifying future trends and developments that are anticipated to impact provision and demand/need for mental health services among the UK Armed Forces community. The research used a scenario planning approach to explore a broad spectrum of future possibilities and thus help organisations within the sector consider and prepare for different future risks and opportunities.

Key Takeaways

The future of mental health in the UK Armed Forces community is shaped by several trends that cut across UK society as well as trends that are unique to the military context.

  • Important society-wide trends include increasing demand for mental health support, particularly among children and young people, and potential impacts of climate change, political polarisation and economic disruption.
  • Within the Armed Forces community, there are significant concerns about the implications of geopolitical uncertainty and the potential UK involvement in future large-scale conflicts. These trends may amplify stressors placed on personnel and families, including level of operational tempo, exposure to combat and the complexity of military operations.
  • Important transformations are taking place in the way mental health care is delivered in the UK. This includes structural reforms in mental health care delivery, increasing adoption of technologies, and changing healthcare practices.

The research identified five scenarios that capture varied Defence and societal contexts which would exert different pressures on the Armed Forces mental health sector. The scenarios reflect on trends which may be highly impactful but are also highly uncertain.

Recommendations

  • Stakeholders should consider how aspects of the scenarios may co-occur, to recognise how various pressure points on mental health services could be layered on top of each other. Although the scenarios present distinct dynamics, they are not mutually exclusive.
  • Service providers should keep abreast of high-impact trends which are not captured in the scenarios due to their higher level of certainty. This includes population ageing and the increasing prevalence of poor mental health across UK society, particularly among children and young people.
  • The sector should continue leveraging futures and foresight methods to help future-proof support strategies.

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Slapakova, Linda, Elizabeth Moisan, and Erik Silfversten, Future scenarios for mental health in the UK Armed Forces community. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4652-1.html.
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This research was commissioned by Combat Stress, funded by the Forces in Mind Trust, and conducted by RAND Europe.

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