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The Sydney Strategic Model (STM) was originally developed between 1999 and 2002, and informs long term transport planning, policy development and infrastructure assessment in Greater Sydney. During 2009 and 2010, the individual models that comprise the STM were re-estimated to use more recent survey data, the geographic scope of the model was extended, and additional model components were incorporated to predict demand for toll roads and park-and-ride schemes.

During 2010 and 2011, three parallel projects were undertaken to implement the new models in the STM. This report describes the work to update the Application System component of the STM. The Application System comprises nine travel demand (TravDem) models, one for each of the seven home-based and two non-home-based purposes modelled in the STM. The TravDem for each journey purpose implements the frequency, mode and destination choice models together in a combined structure that predicts demand for travel as a function of forecasts of the Sydney population by spatial area and socio-economic segment. The report describes work to update the TravDems to use the updated model parameters, and to extend the TravDems so that they predict demand for the new toll road and park-and-ride alternatives.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    The travel demand models

  • Chapter Three

    Segmentation

  • Chapter Four

    Operation of application system

  • Chapter Five

    Verification and validation

  • Chapter Six

    Summary

  • Appendix A

    Tree structures

  • Appendix B

    Mean proportions

  • Appendix C

    Detailed TravDem validation

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Bureau of Transport Statistics, Transport for NSW and conducted by RAND Europe.

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