Cover: Enhancement of the pivot point process used in the Sydney Strategic Model
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Enhancement of the pivot point process used in the Sydney Strategic Model

by James Fox, Andrew Daly, Bhanu Patruni

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The Sydney Strategic Model (STM) was originally developed between 1999 and 2002, and informs long term transport planning, policy development and infrastructure assessment across the Greater Sydney area . During 2009 and 2010, the individual demand models that comprise the STM were re-estimated to use more recent survey data, the geographic scope of the model was extended, and additional model components were incorporated to predict demand for toll roads and park-and-ride schemes.

During 2010 and 2011, three parallel projects were undertaken to implement the new models in the STM. This report describes the third of those projects, work to analyse and enhance the pivoting component of the STM. The pivoting component of the STM takes the predictions of the STM demand models in base and future years, and uses this information to 'pivot' off observed base matrices that describe base year travel patterns in order to generate the best possible predictions of future travel patterns. The report describes analysis of the operation of the original pivoting process, and the issues that analysis identified with the original process. The report goes on to describe the enhancements that have been made to the process to address these issues, and the analysis undertaken to demonstrate the resulting improvement in performance.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Performance criteria

  • Chapter Three

    Performance of original pivoting process

  • Chapter Four

    Enhancements to the pivoting process

  • Chapter Five

    Performance of enhanced pivoting process

  • Chapter Six

    Summary and recommendations

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Bureau of Transport Statistics, Transport for NSW and conducted by RAND Europe.

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