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The Sydney Strategic Model (STM) was originally developed between 1999 and 2002, and informs long term transport planning, policy development and infrastructure assessment in Greater Sydney. During 2009 and 2010, the individual models that comprise the STM were re-estimated to use more recent survey data, the geographic scope of the model was extended, and additional model components were incorporated to predict demand for toll roads and park-and-ride schemes.

During 2010 and 2011, three parallel projects were undertaken to implement the new models in the STM. This report describes the work to update the Population Synthesiser component of the STM. The Population Synthesiser is run to create forecasts of the future Sydney population segmented by spatial area and socio-economic segment. The Population Synthesiser predicts future levels of licence holding, representing both cross-sectional changes and cohort effects to incorporate the impact of trends in licence holding over time, in particular delayed licence acquisition for younger people, and higher female licence holding for older persons. The model also predicts future car ownership levels, and a key improvement in the new version if a process to 'pivot' off car ownership levels in the base year so that the observed pattern of spatial variation in car ownership levels is fully represented in the base year forecasts. The report also documents the updated prototypical sampling procedure, which is run to expand the base year population to best match future targets defined for each model zone.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    The Population Synthesiser

  • Chapter Three

    Updates to the synthesiser

  • Chapter Four

    Car ownership pivot

  • Chapter Five

    Model runs and analysis

  • Chapter Six

    Summary

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Bureau of Transport Statistics, Transport for NSW.

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