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How safe should highly automated vehicles (HAVs) be before they are allowed on the roads for consumer use? The question is of importance to policymakers, the transportation industry, and the public. Answering it requires long-term thinking: how will the performance and adoption of AVs change over time and how will choices made today shape the future of road safety? Making projections is fraught with complications because these forces are deeply uncertain. To help explore answers to the question, this tool lets users develop their own future scenarios and estimates the resulting fatalities against a future without AVs.

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This project is a RAND Venture. Funding was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. The research was conducted by the Science, Technology, and Policy Program within RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment.

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