Ismael Arciniegas Rueda

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda
Senior Economist; Professor of Public Policy, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Washington Office


Ph.D. in economics, SUNY Albany; M.A. in economics, SUNY Albany


Ismael Arciniegas Rueda is senior economist at RAND and a professor of public policy at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Arciniegas has held leadership positions at major energy companies such as AES, PSEG, Constellation and TransAlta. At those companies, Arciniegas led structuring, quantitative and trading teams that successfully participated in wholesale, retail, and renewable energy markets. Some of the projects that Arciniegas worked on include: deployment of a global Energy Trading Risk system (at AES), managing one of largest U.S. wholesale load portfolios and launching a power retail business (at PSEG), leading R&D programs on risk management products for power/gas (at Constellation) and managing PJM congestion trading portfolio (at TransAlta).

Arciniegas maintains an active research agenda on real options and quantitative methods applied to energy and currency markets. He has several peer reviewed publications in scientific journals such as Quantitative Finance, Utilities Policy, IEEE System Man and Cybernetics, and Intelligent Data Analysis. Arciniegas also served over seven years on the Rutgers Master of Quantitative Finance Board of Directors. He is adjunct faculty at Catholic University where he teaches Energy Economics and Time Series courses. He also teaches courses at the Pardee RAND Graduate School on energy markets and climate risk management. He also worked at Los Alamos National Lab. He is fluent in Spanish, French and German (intermediate). He holds a Ph.D. in economics from State University of New York at Albany. 

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Adjunct Professor Catholic University of America

Previous Positions

Vice President Global Commercial Operations at AES; Director of Structuring and Quantitative Analysis at PSEG Energy Resouces and Trade; Vice President of Research and Development at Constellation New Energy; Manager, PJM Financial Transmission Rights Trading at TransAlta Energy

Recent Projects

  • Exploring Implications of a Chinese Developed and Governed Transcontinental Power Grid
  • Understanding Benefits and Risk of Artificial Intelligence for Energy Security
  • Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Framework for Risk Registries.
  • FEMA Covid Review
  • Resilience Evaluation Consensus Based Codes and Standards

Selected Publications

Aaron Clark Ginsberg, Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Jay Liu, Hong Chen, Jonathon Monken, "Maintaining Critical Infrastructure Resilience to Natural Hazards during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Hurricane Preparations by US Energy Companies," Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience, 2020

S., Moazeni, M., Coulon, I., Arciniegas Rueda, B., Song, and W., Powell, "A NonParametric Structural Hybrid Modeling Approach for Electricity Prices," Quantitative Finance, 16, 2016

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas, "SOM Based Data Analysis of Speculative Attacks’ Real Effects," Journal of Intelligent Data Analysis, 13, 2009

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Arciniegas, "Forecasting Short Term Power Prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a Fuzzy Logic Based Inference System," Utilities Policy, 16, 2008

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas and M., Embrechts, "Variable Selection with Partial Least Squares Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Currency Crises’ Real Effects," Intelligent Data Analysis, 12, 2008

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Marathe, "Important Variables Explaining Ontario Real Time Price," Utilities Policy, 13, 2005

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas, M., Embrechts, "SVM Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Currency Crises’ Aftermaths," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics – Part A. Humans and Systems, 34, 2004

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Marathe, "Assessing the Efficiency of US Electricity Markets," Utilities Policy, 2003

Honors & Awards

  • Global Executive Leadership 2018, AES/Georgetown University
  • Executive Board of Directors of Master in Quantitative Finance 2011-2017, Rutgers University
  • Top Performer 2008, Constellation Energy


French; Spanish; German