Ismael Arciniegas Rueda

Photo of Ismael Arciniegas Rueda
Senior Economist
Washington Office


Ph.D. in economics, SUNY Albany; M.A. in economics, SUNY Albany


Ismael Arciniegas Rueda is senior economist at RAND. Arciniegas has held leadership positions at major energy companies such as AES, PSEG, Constellation and TransAlta. At those companies, Arciniegas led structuring, quantitative and trading teams that successfully participated in wholesale, retail, and renewable energy markets. Some of the projects that Arciniegas worked on include: deployment of a global Energy Trading Risk system (at AES), managing one of US largest wholesale load portfolios and launching a power retail business (at PSEG), leading R&D programs on risk management products for power/gas (at Constellation) and managing PJM congestion trading portfolio (at TransAlta). Arciniegas maintains an active research agenda on real options and quantitative methods applied to energy and currency markets. He has several peer reviewed publications in scientific journals such as Quantitative Finance, Utilities Policy, IEEE System Man and Cybernetics, and Intelligent Data Analysis. Arciniegas also served over seven years on the Rutgers Master of Quantitative Finance Board of Directors. He has been a visiting scholar at Catholic University and worked at Los Alamos National Lab. He is fluent in Spanish, French and German (intermediate). He holds a Ph.D in Economics from State University of New York at Albany. 

Previous Positions

Vicepresident Global Commercial Operations at AES; Director of Structuring and Quantitative Analysis at PSEG Energy Resouces and Trade; Vicepresident of Research and Development at Constellation New Energy; Manager PJM Financial Transmission Rights Trading at TransAlta Energy

Selected Publications

S., Moazeni, M., Coulon, I., Arciniegas Rueda, B., Song, and W., Powell, "A NonParametric Structural Hybrid Modeling Approach for Electricity Prices," Quantitative Finance, 16, 2016

I Arciniegas Rueda, "Empirical Analysis of Speculative Attacks with Contractionary Real Effects," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance, and Management, 19, 2012

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas, "SOM Based Data Analysis of Speculative Attacks’ Real Effects," Journal of Intelligent Data Analysis, 13, 2009

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Arciniegas, "Forecasting Short Term Power Prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a Fuzzy Logic Based Inference System," Utilities Policy, 16, 2008

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas and M., Embrechts, "Variable Selection with Partial Least Squares Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Currency Crises’ Real Effects," Intelligent Data Analysis, 12, 2008

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Marathe, "Important Variables Explaining Ontario Real Time Price," Utilities Policy, 13, 2005

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas, M., Embrechts, "SVM Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Currency Crises’ Aftermaths," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics – Part A. Humans and Systems, 34, 2004

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Marathe, "Assessing the Efficiency of US Electricity Markets," Utilities Policy, 2003

Honors & Awards

  • Global Executive Leadership 2018, AES/Georgetown University
  • Executive Board of Directors of Master in Quantitative Finance 2011-2017, Rutgers University
  • Top Performer 2008, Constellation Energy


French; Spanish; German


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    The Downside of a Lean Electric Grid

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    Oct 13, 2020 The Hill

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    Counting the Costs: Improving Disaster Recovery Cost Estimation

    Estimating the cost of disasters is a complex process. Disaster recovery is complicated even further during this new era of COVID-19, when extra precautions must be taken. How can we estimate costs quickly and reliably, thus improving the flow of dollars back into the community?

    Sep 30, 2020 Natural Hazards Center