Ismael Arciniegas Rueda

Photo of Ismael Arciniegas Rueda
Senior Economist; Professor of Public Policy, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Washington Office


Ph.D. in economics, SUNY Albany; M.A. in economics, SUNY Albany


Ismael Arciniegas Rueda is senior economist at RAND and a professor of public policy at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Arciniegas has held leadership positions at major energy companies such as AES, PSEG, Constellation and TransAlta. At those companies, Arciniegas led structuring, quantitative and trading teams that successfully participated in wholesale, retail, and renewable energy markets. Some of the projects that Arciniegas worked on include: deployment of a global Energy Trading Risk system (at AES), managing one of largest U.S. wholesale load portfolios and launching a power retail business (at PSEG), leading R&D programs on risk management products for power/gas (at Constellation) and managing PJM congestion trading portfolio (at TransAlta).

Arciniegas maintains an active research agenda on real options and quantitative methods applied to energy and currency markets. He has several peer reviewed publications in scientific journals such as Quantitative Finance, Utilities Policy, IEEE System Man and Cybernetics, and Intelligent Data Analysis. Arciniegas also served over seven years on the Rutgers Master of Quantitative Finance Board of Directors. He is adjunct faculty at Catholic University where he teaches Energy Economics and Time Series courses. He also teaches courses at the Pardee RAND Graduate School on energy markets and climate risk management. He also worked at Los Alamos National Lab. He is fluent in Spanish, French and German (intermediate). He holds a Ph.D. in economics from State University of New York at Albany. 

Previous Positions

Vice President Global Commercial Operations at AES; Director of Structuring and Quantitative Analysis at PSEG Energy Resouces and Trade; Vice President of Research and Development at Constellation New Energy; Manager, PJM Financial Transmission Rights Trading at TransAlta Energy

Selected Publications

Aaron Clark Ginsberg, Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Jay Liu, Hong Chen, Jonathon Monken, "Maintaining Critical Infrastructure Resilience to Natural Hazards during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Hurricane Preparations by US Energy Companies," Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience, 2020

S., Moazeni, M., Coulon, I., Arciniegas Rueda, B., Song, and W., Powell, "A NonParametric Structural Hybrid Modeling Approach for Electricity Prices," Quantitative Finance, 16, 2016

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas, "SOM Based Data Analysis of Speculative Attacks’ Real Effects," Journal of Intelligent Data Analysis, 13, 2009

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Arciniegas, "Forecasting Short Term Power Prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a Fuzzy Logic Based Inference System," Utilities Policy, 16, 2008

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas and M., Embrechts, "Variable Selection with Partial Least Squares Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Currency Crises’ Real Effects," Intelligent Data Analysis, 12, 2008

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Marathe, "Important Variables Explaining Ontario Real Time Price," Utilities Policy, 13, 2005

I., Arciniegas Rueda, F., Arciniegas, M., Embrechts, "SVM Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Currency Crises’ Aftermaths," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics – Part A. Humans and Systems, 34, 2004

I., Arciniegas Rueda, A., Marathe, "Assessing the Efficiency of US Electricity Markets," Utilities Policy, 2003

Honors & Awards

  • Global Executive Leadership 2018, AES/Georgetown University
  • Executive Board of Directors of Master in Quantitative Finance 2011-2017, Rutgers University
  • Top Performer 2008, Constellation Energy


French; Spanish; German


  • Smoke rises from the pipes of a heat power plant, Kiev, Ukraine, November 27, 2015, photo by Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

    Rebuilding Ukraine for a Changing Climate

    When the war in Ukraine ends, the country will in all likelihood undergo a massive reconstruction. Ukraine could rebuild in a way that would both lower its carbon footprint and construct infrastructure resilient to the effects of climate change.

    Jul 8, 2022 The Hill

  • Clouds of pollution released by an industrial plant, photo by rui_noronha/Getty Images

    How Could the United States Incentivize Investors to Decarbonize the Economy?

    While mandatory climate-related disclosure may improve information and decisionmaking for investors, it alone is unlikely to accelerate investment in decarbonization at the rate needed. To motivate private investment in climate mitigation, policymakers could explore additional policies.

    May 12, 2022 The Hill

  • Green business growth and finance sustainable development, photo by mihacreative/Adobe Stock

    Green Bonds Can Leave Issuers in the Red

    To achieve the Biden administration's blueprint for solar energy and focus on climate change mitigation and adaptation, green bonds may be worth considering. But, like any other financing instrument, they may be best considered through a cost-benefit lens.

    Nov 22, 2021 The RAND Blog

  • A woman stands on a ruined building after Hurricane Eta, in Wawa Bar, a Miskito indigenous community in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, November 23, 2020, photo by Katlyn Holland/CRS /Latin America News Agency/Reuters

    Previous Disasters Provide Important Lessons for Central America's Recovery from Hurricanes

    As the global community works to assist Central America in recovering from the disastrous 2020 hurricane season, other recent recovery efforts offer helpful lessons, both for the governments of the region as well as outsiders providing resources and support.

    Jan 11, 2021 The National Interest

  • Telephone poles toppled over after Hurricane Laura, photo by Leslie Scarbrough/Getty Images

    Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Are Important Tools to Improve Cost Estimation for Natural Disasters in Electric Utilities

    Natural disasters in the United States cause billions of dollars of damage to electric infrastructure every year. Applying artificial intelligence and machine learning in a disaster-recovery context for electrical utilities might significantly improve cost estimating capability and responsiveness.

    Dec 4, 2020 Energy Central

  • Man wearing a hard hat facing away looking at electricity pylons and wires, photo by xijian/Getty Images

    The Downside of a Lean Electric Grid

    The electric grid is central to U.S. national security. Recent disasters provide an example of the downsides of leanness. It's more costly to be less lean, but given our dependence on the electric grid and the increasing prevalence of disasters, safety and resilience may be greater priorities.

    Oct 13, 2020 The Hill

  • Flood waters inside the gymnasium at C.E. King High School following tropical storm Harvey in Houston, Texas, September 8, 2017, photo by Mike Blake/Reuters

    Counting the Costs: Improving Disaster Recovery Cost Estimation

    Estimating the cost of disasters is a complex process. Disaster recovery is complicated even further during this new era of COVID-19, when extra precautions must be taken. How can we estimate costs quickly and reliably, thus improving the flow of dollars back into the community?

    Sep 30, 2020 Natural Hazards Center