Victoria A. Greenfield

Senior Economist

Washington Office

Education

B.S. in agricultural economics, Cornell University; Ph.D. in agricultural and resource economics, UC Berkeley; M.S. in agricultural and resource economics, UC Berkeley

Overview

Victoria Greenfield (she/her) is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation, and faculty affiliate with the Department of Criminology, Law and Society, George Mason University. At RAND, she specializes in national security and international social and economic issues, including transnational crime. Greenfield also advises agencies on strategic planning, performance evaluation, and organizational structure and change. Her recent publications include seminal work on assessing the harms of crime and studies of the risks of illicit opioids in Asia-Pacific markets, revenues from human smuggling, controls for chemical explosive precursors, mechanisms for reducing Afghan opium production, and opportunities for strengthening federal agencies’ operations. Greenfield has also written on defense contracting, the defense industry, and international trade and globalization.

Previously, Greenfield managed research quality assurance for RAND’s Homeland Security Research Division (2020-2021) and was a visiting scholar at George Mason University (2015-2018), a visiting fellow and lecturer at Leuven Institute for Criminology in Belgium (2016, 2022), and the Admiral Crowe Chair in the Economics of the Defense Industrial Base at the U.S. Naval Academy (2005-2012). In addition, she chaired the National Academies’ committee on reducing the threat of improvised explosive devices (2016-2018) and was a member of the committee on border enforcement costs. Prior to 2000, she served as the senior economist for international trade and agriculture at the U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers, the chief international economist in the Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State, and a principal analyst with the Congressional Budget Office.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Faculty Affiliate, Department of Criminology, Law and Society, George Mason University

Recent Projects

Use of economic analysis and metrics in military applications
Cybersecurity of the Air Force Industrial Supply Chain
Risks of Illicit Opioids in Asia-Pacific Markets
Performance Assessment Process Improvement for System Engineering Support
Economic Value of Human Smuggling to Transnational Criminal Organizations

Selected Publications

Victoria A. Greenfield and Letizia Paoli, Assessing the Harms of Crime: A New Framework for Criminal Policy, Oxford University Press, 2022

Greenfield, Victoria A., Blas Nunez-Neto, Ian Mitch, Joseph C. Chang, and Etienne Rosas, Human Smuggling and Associated Revenues: What Do or Can We Know About Routes from Central America to the United States?RAND Corporation (RR-2852-DHS), 2019

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Committee on Reducing the Threat of Improvised Explosive Device Attacks by Restricting Access to Chemical Explosive Precursors, Reducing the Threat of Improvised Explosive Device Attacks by Restricting Access to Explosive Precursor Chemicals, The National Academies Press, 2018

Victoria A. Greenfield, Craig A. Bond, Keith Crane, "A Household Model of Opium-Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan: Results and Lessons for Policymaking," Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(5), 2017

Victoria A. Greenfield, Letizia Paoli, and Andries Zoutendijk, "The Harms of Human Trafficking: Demonstrating the Applicability and Value of a New Framework for Systematic, Empirical Analysis," Global Crime, 17(2), 2016

Victoria A. Greenfield and Letizia Paoli, "If supply-oriented drug policy is broken, can harm reduction help fix it? Melding disciplines and methods to advance international drug-control policy," International Journal of Drug Policy, 23, 2012

Ryan R. Brady and Victoria A. Greenfield, "Competing explanations of U.S. defense industry consolidation in the 1990s and their policy implications," Contemporary Economic Policy, 28(2), 2010

Letizia Paoli, Victoria A. Greenfield, and Peter Reuter, The World Supply of Heroin: Can Supply Be Cut?Oxford University Press, 2009

Honors & Awards

Spotlight Award for Mentorship (2022), RAND
Silver Medal Award for Furthering RAND’s Mission and Impact (2020), RAND

Commentary

Opium and Democracy
Published commentary by RAND staff.
May 4, 2005
United Press International

Publications

Commercial Book
Assessing the Harms of Crime: A New Framework for Criminal Policy
Assessing the Harms of Crime provides a firm analytical foundation for making normative decisions about criminal and related policy, taking harm—and its reduction—as a conceptual starting point and supplying the means for systematic, empirical analysis in a harm assessment framework.
Jun 29, 2022
Report
Performance Management and Assessment of Federally Funded Research and Development Centers: Lessons from Academic Literature and Practitioner Guidance
In this report, the authors discuss insights drawn from academic literature and practitioner guidance that are applicable to the effective oversight, management, and performance assessment of federally funded research and development centers.
Jan 31, 2022
Report
Afghanistan in the Era of Fentanyl: Considering Potential Economic and Political Impacts of a Collapse in Demand for Afghanistan's Opiates
Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of illegal opium poppy and is a key source for many heroin markets. The authors summarize the economic and political roles of opiates in Afghanistan and discuss the potential impacts of their disappearance.
Jul 26, 2021
Journal Article
Illicit Synthetic Opioid Consumption in Asia and the Pacific: Assessing the Risks of a Potential Outbreak
While many illegally manufactured potent synthetic opioids (IMPSO) are produced in Asia, there is little evidence they have entered markets there. We consider the susceptibility to IMPSO's encroachment in markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
Mar 1, 2021
Report
Managing Risk in Globalized Supply Chains
This report addresses the challenges the U.S. Air Force faces in mitigating the risks associated with an increasingly globalized weapon supply chain and suggests ways to improve how it addresses such risks.
Feb 5, 2021
Report
Human Smuggling and Associated Revenues: What Do or Can We Know About Routes from Central America to the United States?
The authors examine the structure, operations, and financing of actors that engage in human smuggling along routes from Central America to the United States and develop a preliminary estimate of revenues associated with human smuggling.
Apr 22, 2019
Research Brief
Human Smuggling from Central America to the United States: What Is Known or Knowable About Smugglers' Operations and Revenues?
RAND researchers examined the structure, operations, and financing of actors that engage in human smuggling along routes from Central America to the United States and developed a preliminary estimate of revenues associated with human smuggling.
Apr 22, 2019
Report
The Role of Logic Modeling in a Collaborative and Iterative Research Process: Lessons from Research and Analysis Conducted with the Federal Voting Assistance Program
The report describes the underlying method of collaborative logic-model development and application and frames the approach in generalizable step-by-step terms, drawing from research and analysis conducted with the Federal Voting Assistance Program.
Feb 9, 2016
Journal Article
Starting from the End: A Plea for Focusing on the Consequences of Crime
Since its institutionalization as an autonomous discipline in the late 19th century, criminology's main project has been identifying the causes of crime.
Dec 29, 2015
Research Brief
The Federal Voting Assistance Program: Refocusing and Reorganizing for the Road Ahead
The Federal Voting Assistance Program is creating a clearer, shared understanding of its mission; building trust and strengthening its relationships with its stakeholders; and embracing a culture and principles of effectiveness.
Dec 16, 2015
Report
Nanomaterial Safety in the Workplace: Pilot Project for Assessing the Impact of the NIOSH Nanotechnology Research Center
RAND researchers develop a preliminary logic model to help the Nanotechnology Research Center identify and assess its contributions to improving the safety and health of workers who could be affected by engineered nanomaterials.
Nov 3, 2015
Report
The Federal Voting Assistance Program and the Road Ahead: Achieving Institutional Change Through Analysis and Collaboration
This report documents the Federal Voting Assistance Program's efforts to align its strategy and operations to better serve its mission and stakeholders, and set its own course, greet change, and communicate its role in the voting community.
Oct 26, 2015
Report
Reducing the Cultivation of Opium Poppies in Southern Afghanistan
Identifies drivers of opium poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan and assesses effects of programs to promote rural development, eradicate opium poppies, or otherwise create incentives for farmers to cultivate less opium poppy.
Jun 17, 2015
Report
Police Department Investments in Information Technology Systems: Challenges Assessing Their Payoff
As police departments and other public service providers manage reduced budgets, RAND researchers explored the rationale and evidence supporting the idea that IT investments can increase efficiency in policing, and do so cost-effectively.
Sep 25, 2014
Report
Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits
Assesses the advisability of changing the overseas basing presence of U.S. forces based on strategic benefits, risks, and costs. Characterizes how this presence contributes to assurance, deterrence, responsiveness, and security cooperation goals.
Apr 29, 2013
Research Brief
U.S. Overseas Military Posture: Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits
In an environment of fiscal constraints and shifting strategic needs, policymakers should carefully weigh the strategic capability effects, relative costs, and risks associated with potential changes to U.S. overseas military posture.
Apr 29, 2013
Journal Article
Change Is Possible: The History of the International Drug Control Regime and Implications for Future Policymaking
The article reconstructs and analyzes the parallel evolution of the international drug control regime and the world opiate market, assessing the impact of the former on the latter until the rise of present-day mass markets.
Jun 1, 2012
Report
Assessing the Benefits of U.S. Customs and Border Protection Regulatory Actions to Reduce Terrorism Risks
Summarizes the proceedings of a workshop in which experts on regulatory analysis and terrorism risk examined alternative approaches for estimating the benefits of regulations designed to reduce the risks of terrorist attacks in the United States.
Apr 16, 2012
Journal Article
If Supply-Oriented Drug Policy Is Broken, Can Harm Reduction Help Fix It? Melding Disciplines and Methods to Advance International Drug-Control Policy
Critics of the international drug-control regime contend that supply-oriented policy interventions are not just ineffective, but, in focusing almost exclusively on supply reduction, they also produce unintended adverse consequences.
2012
Journal Article
Budgeting for Immigration Enforcement: A Path to Better Performance
Budgeting for Immigration Enforcement addresses how to improve budgeting for the federal immigration enforcement system, specifically focusing on the parts of that system that are operated and funded by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).
2011
Journal Article
Is Medicinal Opium Production Afghanistan's Answer? A Reply to Comments
The authors respond to comments made in Bhattacharji, Romesh and Kamminga, Jorrit. (2010), A Response to Is Medicinal Opium Production Afghanistan's Answer?: Lessons From India and the World Market, Journal of Drug Policy Analysis, Vol. 3(1).
May 1, 2010
Journal Article
Competing Explanations of U.S. Defense Industry Consolidation in the 1990s and Their Policy Implications
In this article the authors test for structural breaks in U.S. defense industry and spending data over the last five decades.
Apr 1, 2010
Journal Article
Is Medicinal Opium Production Afghanistan's Answer? Lessons from India and the World Market
Poverty and corruption are pervasive in Afghanistan and opium production is rampant, especially in the country's most insecure southern regions.
Nov 1, 2009
Journal Article
The Global Diversion of Pharmaceutical Drugs, India: The Third Largest Illicit Opium Producer?
Explores India's role in the world illicit opiate market, particularly its role as a producer.
2009
Report
Design of the Qatar National Research Fund: An Overview of the Study Approach and Key Recommendations
This report documents the design and business and implementation plans that the RAND-Qatar Policy Institute recommended in 2004 to the Qatar Foundation for Education, Science, and Community Development for its Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF).
Feb 12, 2008
Journal Article
Contractors on the Battlefield: When and How?: Using the US Military's Risk Management Framework to Learn from the Balkans Support Contract
This study provides insight into the role and value of contractors and challenges facing the government as it seeks to best integrate the skills and capabilities it needs; these skills are increasingly principally resident in the private sector.
2008
Journal Article
Tajikistan: The Rise of a Narco-State
This article argues that since the mid-1990s Tajikistan has become a narco-state, in which leaders of the most powerful trafficking groups occupy high-ranking government positions and misuse state structures for their own illicit businesses.
Oct 1, 2007
Research Brief
Benefits and Barriers: Using and Sharing Geospatial Information in the Department of Defense
This research brief summarizes the benefits of and barriers to sharing geospatial data among both private and government organizations and discusses a three-step methodology used to assess the outcomes and benefits of sharing.
Sep 10, 2007
Report
Installation Mapping Enables Many Missions: The Benefits of and Barriers to Sharing Geospatial Data Assets
This report assesses the effects of sharing installations and environment geospatial data assets within and across the business, warfighting, and intelligence mission areas of the Department of Defense.
Aug 19, 2007
Report
Economically Targeted Terrorism: A Review of the Literature and a Framework for Considering Defensive Approaches
This report describes the range of economic effects of terrorist activities. The framework developed here captures costs of economic targeting, whether through episodic or campaign terrorism, and explores defensive measures against this threat.
Apr 25, 2007
Report
Using Logic Models for Strategic Planning and Evaluation: Application to the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control
This report is the result of RAND's effort to assist the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control with its PART (Program Assessment Rating Tool) review and long-term performance goals and emphasizes the use of a "logic model template."
Mar 30, 2006
Research Brief
Civilian or Military? Assessing the Risk of Using Contractors on the Battlefield
Key findings: --Contractors continue to play an important role in military operations --Any decision about using or not using contractors carries risk --Decisions about using contractors on the battlefield tend to be complex --A disciplined approach...
Nov 25, 2005
Report
Risk Management and Performance in the Balkans Support Contract
What has the Army learned about risk from its experience using contractors in the Balkans?
Aug 15, 2005
Report
How Should the Army Use Contractors on the Battlefield? Assessing Comparative Risk in Sourcing Decisions
What is the best and most cost-effective way for the Army to use contractors on the battlefield?
Apr 7, 2005
Report
The Role of the Office of Homeland Security in the Federal Budget Process: Recommendations for Effective Long-Term Engagement
The new Office of Homeland Security is uniquely poised to bring strategy and funding decisions together across departments and agencies.
Apr 1, 2002
Report
Going Global? U.S. Government Policy and the Defense Aerospace Industry
An examination of the effects of consolidation and globalization on the aerospace defense industry.
2002
Report
An Economic Framework for Evaluating Military Aircraft Replacement
An Economic Framework for Evaluating Military Aircraft Replacement
2002
Report
Measuring Global Drug Markets: How Good Are the Numbers and Why Should We Care About Them?
Measuring Global Drug Markets: How Good Are the Numbers and Why Should We Care About Them?
2002