Gabrielle Tarini

NATO's Vilnius Summit Holds the Key for Ukraine's Reconstruction

Repelling Russia's invasion will be top of mind at the NATO summit in Vilnius. But longer-term security decisions may be even more important to Ukraine's future, after the fighting stops.

How to Reform and Reconstruct Ukraine After the War

Hostilities in Ukraine are ongoing, but it is not too early to consider post-war reconstruction. Indeed, the United States and Europe have already begun planning what will probably be the most ambitious post-war rebuilding effort in modern history.

Trying to Forestall the Next Civilian Casualty Horror

After civilians are injured or killed, the U.S. Defense Department isn't doing enough to learn from its own failures. The Pentagon needs to devote resources and senior leader attention to an issue that has historically lacked both. Civilian protection should become the singular priority for a critical mass of people across the organization.

The Lost Generation in American Foreign Policy

Throughout the 55 years following World War II, successive U.S. administrations racked up major foreign policy successes at an average rate of about once a year. Since 2001, the pace of foreign policy achievement has fallen to once every four years. The result has been a lost generation in American foreign policy.

Research Brief

Greater Conflict-Phase Access to Asia: U.S. Policies for Five Indo-Pacific Countries

This research brief addresses how U.S. allies and partners are likely to make decisions about granting approval for U.S. military access during a conflict and what U.S. policies in peacetime could affect those decisions.

Report

Improving Conflict-Phase Access: Identifying U.S. Policy Levers

This report explores how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific are likely to respond to military access requests in the event of a conflict with China and what policy levers the United States might use in peacetime to affect those responses.

Report

Building U.S. Responses to Russia's Threats to Use Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic Analysis of Brinkmanship

Using a game theory approach, the authors examine U.S. tools and levers to respond to Russia’s potential employment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in its conflict with Ukraine.

Report

Overcoming Barriers to Working with Highly Capable Allies and Partners in the Air, Space, and Cyber Domains: An Exploratory Analysis

In this report, the authors consider how the United States can enhance engagement with highly capable allies and partners to improve interoperability by identifying some of the main barriers to security cooperation with these countries.

Report

Reconstructing Ukraine: Creating a Freer, More Prosperous, and Secure Future

The authors of this analysis draw on lessons from relevant historical examples of post-war and post–natural disaster reconstruction to provide insights on how to organize, finance, and provide security for Ukraine's reform and reconstruction.

Report

Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.

Research Brief

What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.

Report

Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia

This report examines how to deter a national security threat when the threat, the underlying method, and the actor behind the threat are not understood with certainty.

Report

Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches

This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces.

Report

Understanding Civilian Harm in Raqqa and Its Implications for Future Conflicts

In this report, RAND researchers study the causes of civilian harm in the 2017 battle for Raqqa, Syria, and provide insights into how the U.S. Department of Defense can reduce civilian harm in future operations.

Report

U.S. Department of Defense Civilian Casualty Policies and Procedures: An Independent Assessment

In this report, researchers from the RAND Corporation and CNA conduct an independent assessment of U.S. Department of Defense standards, processes, procedures, and policies relating to civilian casualties resulting from U.S. military operations.

Report

Competition and Governance in African Security Sectors: Integrating U.S. Strategic Objectives

This report examines U.S. institutional capacity-building programs for the security sectors of African partner governments and their potential role in strategic competition.

Research Brief

The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS

The United States used airpower in Syria and Iraq to halt ISIS's momentum and help defeat the organization, without committing a large number of ground forces.

Report

The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Role of Airpower in Operation Inherent Resolve

Airpower played a pivotal role in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State from 2014 to 2019 and contributed to the success of Operation Inherent Resolve, but airpower alone would not have been likely to defeat the militant organization.

Journal Article

Future Threats and Some Considerations for the Next U.S. National Defense Strategy

In this article, the authors offer a U.S. perspective on the evolution of threats from the recent past, and posit several considerations for the next National Defense Strategy.

Commentary

Unlocking NATO's Amphibious Potential: Lessons from the Past, Insights for the Future

Researchers analyze the past, present, and future employment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's amphibious forces, highlight ongoing initiatives, and identify several efforts that should be pursued to advance its amphibious capabilities.

Commentary

The Lost Generation in American Foreign Policy: How American Influence Has Declined, and What Can Be Done About It

The authors trace the decline of U.S. international influence over the past two decades, explore reasons for this decline, and suggest ways in which it might be reversed.