Global Security

commentary

The Nuclear Shadows of the Ukraine War as Seen Through a Chinese Lens

China-U.S. relations are once again on an upward trajectory after the meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit. But the good news should not obscure lingering bilateral tensions with respect to nuclear weapons.

Lyle Goldstein, Nathan Waechter

commentary

North Korea's Satellite Launch: Part of a Bigger Problem for Kim Jong-un?

On November 21, North Korea made its third attempt of 2023 to launch a reconnaissance satellite despite this launch violating multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and despite the urging of many other countries. It may well have been a desperate move by North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

commentary

From the Ashes of Hamas-Israel War, Can Economics Drive Peace?

The economic costs of the violence in Gaza threaten Israel's economic future. For the Palestinians, the costs may be so large that they undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. But the magnitude of these economic losses may, paradoxically, forge a new pathway toward peace once the fighting stops.

Daniel Egel

commentary

South Korea's Surprisingly Successful China Policy

When South Korea's president, Yoon Suk-yeol, entered office last year, the odds rose that a frostier bilateral relationship with China might take hold. But for now, at least, Yoon and his government have successfully managed China, and perhaps offered a road map for how others can too.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks

No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, and could be a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

blog

'Israel's 9/11,' Promoting the 988 Hotline, the Future of Space: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the Oct. 7 attack wasn't Israel's 9/11, humanity's future approach to space, the pressing need to ensure more people know about the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, and more.

commentary

Cherish Allies While You Can: What Should the U.S. Do To Support the Incoming Polish Government?

Plenty has been said about what lessons Poland's recent elections hold for pro-democracy forces across the wider West, as well as the message this election sends about a feared inevitability of autocracy, and the significance of this opposition win for European security. But what does the election of an opposition alliance mean for U.S. relations with Warsaw?

Krystyna Marcinek @KMMarcinek

blog

Supporting Veterans, Israel-Hamas War, AI and Geopolitics: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on supporting America's veterans, what Israel's ground offensive in Gaza can and cannot accomplish, how AI might affect the rise and fall of nations, and more.

commentary

China's Gray-Zone Tactics Show the U.S.-Philippine Alliance Is Working

The United States should continue to offer military assistance and training to the Philippines so that Manila can increasingly counter China on its own while Washington continues to remind and warn Beijing that Article V must not be violated. This is the least risky option that also holds the greatest chance of success.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

NATO Needs a Plan for Military and Nonmilitary Instruments of Power to Work Together

To adapt to changes in warfighting, NATO is developing a multi-domain operations warfighting concept. But for this concept to be successful, it must include a plan to manage military operations' increasing reliance on and interaction with nonmilitary instruments of power.

Ann Marie Dailey

commentary

Winning the Irregular World War

If the United States hopes to prevail in an asymmetrical world war, it must upgrade its abilities to provide self-defense and resistance support to its allies and partners, and better coordinate its disparate efforts to counter Russia and China across departments and agencies.

Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes, Daniel Egel

commentary

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

U.S. military forces no longer enjoy the kind of comprehensive superiority that was the foundation of victories over adversary states. Re-establishing a credible posture against aggression by highly capable adversaries will call for sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States, its allies, and its key partners to rethink their approaches to defeating aggression and to recast important elements of their military forces and postures.

David A. Ochmanek, Andrew R. Hoehn @AndyHoehn

commentary

Japan's Play for Today: Too Much? Just Right? Or Never Enough?

Japan is pushing ahead on a broad array of initiatives meant to strengthen the Self-Defense Forces' deterrent power across multiple domains. But there are bound to be limits in manpower, resources, capacity, or capabilities that will place limits on what the end point of Japan's buildup ultimately looks like.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

commentary

Nations Must Collaborate on AI and Biotech—or Be Left Behind

As two revolutionary technologies—machine learning and gene editing—converge, forward-looking policy is necessary to both mitigate risks and leverage opportunities.

Sana Zakaria @drsana_zak, Timothy Marler

blog

Israel-Hamas War, AI and Gene Editing, Social Media Regulation: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the Israel-Hamas war, the convergence of machine learning and gene editing, regulating social media while protecting free speech, and more.