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Global Security

Counterterrorism
commentary
Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 19, 2017
Newsweek
Terrorism has escalated horizontally, not vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks. The trick will be to predict and prevent new plots.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
U.S. Interests and World Community
Michael J. Mazarr
Jun 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Evidence shows that many countries consider themselves part of an emerging global community. This represents America's most potent competitive advantage. U.S. strategy is stronger when it works to reflect and build such a community.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
The Diplomat
Being a proactive contributor to peace involves risk if a country is serious about gaining real-world experience. Pulling out of South Sudan deprives Japan's Self-Defense Force of crucial operational experience and sends a confusing message to the United States and the international community.
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North Korea
blog
Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia
Jun 8, 2017
The increasing tempo of developments in North Korea is of growing concern not only to South Korea but also to the U.S., Japan, and even China. At a RAND event, senior researcher Bruce Bennett discussed how complex the situation is and what options the U.S. has going forward.
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North Korea
commentary
End the Korean War, Finally
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
New York Times
The North Koreans want a declaration of peace as reassurance that they won't be attacked and as recognition that their country is a sovereign state and legitimate power. A peace agreement is most likely a necessary element to any resolution of the North Korean nuclear challenge.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State
Natasha Lander, Kimberly Jackson
Jun 5, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Despite substantial policy and military focus, U.S. attempts to stop the Islamic State group have met with only varying degrees of success. A patient, long-term U.S. investment in governance—including a renewed commitment to addressing the root causes of instability in the Middle East—is needed in Iraq and Syria.
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Politics and Government
commentary
Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jun 2, 2017
Newsweek
President Moon Jae-in is focused on South Korean domestic issues and internal unification. But he needs to prepare for unification with North Korea. He will face challenges whether unification is brought on by peaceful coexistence or as the result of sudden change.
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Georgia (country)
commentary
Georgia Wants Reassurance That America Will Help Deter Russia
Kenneth Yalowitz, William Courtney @courtneywmh
May 25, 2017
The National Interest
Georgia is an emerging democracy in a difficult region with mainly authoritarian regimes nearby. To overcome severe challenges from Russian military occupation and economic weakness, it deserves sustained Western support.
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Arctic Region
commentary
What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?
Abbie Tingstad, Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard
May 25, 2017
United Press International
The shift in U.S. climate policy away from greenhouse gas reduction is significant for the Arctic, which is experiencing global warming at an accelerated rate. And a recent executive order will pave the way for expanded oil and gas drilling. How will these changes shape the Arctic in years to come?
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Turkey
commentary
A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?
Stephen J. Flanagan
May 21, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
While Turkish President Erdogan and U.S. President Trump emphasized the positive aspects of bilateral relations after their meeting, there remain points of contention. The stakes at this meeting and its outcome are high for both Turkey and the United States, and could mark a major milestone in the relationship.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
ISIS: Weakened but Still Potent
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 18, 2017
The Cipher Brief
ISIS is being defeated as an insurgency while preparing to transform into a clandestine terrorist group. But ISIS will continue to pose a serious threat to the countries where it operates and to the Western nations that it targets as it evolves.
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Russia
commentary
Russia in Action, Short of War
Bruce H. McClintock @BHMcClintock, Andrew Radin
May 9, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
The West needs to work more quickly and coordinate better to offset Russia's capabilities, aggressiveness, and success. Responding to Russia's hostile influence involves predicting Russia's targets, identifying the tools it's likely to use, and playing the long game rather than focusing on near-term events.
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Chemical Weapons and Warfare
commentary
Regional Action Needed to Prevent Syrian Chemical Attacks
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
May 8, 2017
The Arab Weekly
Action must be taken to deter future use of chemical weapons. Regional leaders could call for the International Criminal Court to indict Assad for war crimes. Also, borders with Syria could be sealed to prevent any of the remaining stocks from leaving the country.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Caliphate Is Crumbling: What Comes Next?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Craig Whiteside
May 3, 2017
War on the Rocks
ISIL's caliphate is crumbling. But unless the U.S.-led coalition can reduce the many possibilities that might give ISIL's down-and-out members a reason to fight on, the militants will continue to contribute to disorder in the region.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations
Hans Binnendijk, David C. Gompert
May 2, 2017
The National Interest
Steps are needed to fill the vacuum left as the caliphate collapses, lest forces on the ground turn on each other to gain control. The answer is for NATO to act under U.S. leadership. The alternative is either chaos or Iran, backed by Russia, filling the void.
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Threat Assessment
commentary
U.S.-China Tensions Are Unlikely to Lead to War
Timothy R. Heath, William R. Thompson
May 1, 2017
The National Interest
The U.S.-China relationship today may be trending towards greater tension, but the relative stability and overall low level of hostility make the prospect of an accidental escalation to war extremely unlikely.
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Global Security

Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?

U.S. Interests and World Community

Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal

Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia

End the Korean War, Finally

Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State

Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?

Georgia Wants Reassurance That America Will Help Deter Russia

What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?

A Turning Point in U.S-Turkish Relations?

ISIS: Weakened but Still Potent

Russia in Action, Short of War

Regional Action Needed to Prevent Syrian Chemical Attacks

The Caliphate Is Crumbling: What Comes Next?

NATO's Role in Post-Caliphate Stability Operations

U.S.-China Tensions Are Unlikely to Lead to War

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