Global Security

Oceania
commentary
PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 14, 2020
The Diplomat
The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.
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Information Operations
blog
Russian Propaganda, Domestic Terrorism, America's Electric Grid: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 16, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on how Americans react to Russian memes on Facebook, the possibility of domestic terrorism during election season, protecting the U.S. electric grid, and more.
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China
commentary
China's Friends Are Few and Unreliable
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Oct 12, 2020
Nikkei Asia
Amid escalating competition, China and the United States are actively shoring up their diplomatic relationships in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Compared to the United States, China's friends are certainly not as numerous, nor are they as reliable. That is a major challenge for Beijing.
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Military Strategy
commentary
The United States Can Achieve AI Dominance with Its Allies
James Ryseff
Oct 9, 2020
War on the Rocks
Close collaborators in any AI alliance must be able to usefully contribute to the work and be trustworthy enough to share in cutting-edge technical advancements. While achieving this close collaboration with allies may be difficult, it will be essential if the United States hopes to achieve the data dominance needed to succeed in future combat.
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Information Operations
blog
Election Interference on Twitter, Insulin Prices, Remote Learning: RAND Weekly Recap
Oct 9, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on evidence of interference in the 2020 election on Twitter, U.S. insulin prices compared to those of other countries, how parents can help their kids' education stay on track during the pandemic, and more.
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Joint Operations
commentary
Two Vignettes: How Might Combat Operations Be Different Under the Information Joint Function?
Christopher Paul
Oct 8, 2020
Mad Scientist Laboratory Blog
RAND researcher Christopher Paul employs storytelling to illustrate two distinct approaches to Joint Combat Operations. While both vignettes result in the expulsion of adversary forces and the restoration of territorial integrity, they take different approaches to kinetic and informational power.
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Russia
commentary
Belarusian Mortgage on Russia's Future
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz
Oct 5, 2020
The Moscow Times
In September, President Vladimir Putin signaled that Russia was throwing its weight behind embattled Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. But any move to enforce Putin's will in Belarus could invite tougher Western sanctions and scare investors. This would exacerbate problems facing Russia's flagging economy.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
How to Build Better Militaries in Africa: Lessons from Niger
Alexander H. Noyes @alexhnoyes, Ashley Bybee, Paul Clarke
Oct 2, 2020
Council on Foreign Relations
To help counter the threat of terrorism and build the capacity of African militaries, the U.S. government spends over $1.5 billion a year on security assistance to the African continent. Does this support work?
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo W. Kim @mllesookim
Sep 28, 2020
The National Interest
President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?
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Taiwan
commentary
Ambiguity Has Its Uses
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr
Sep 24, 2020
Foreign Affairs
As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.
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Middle East
commentary
In the Middle East, Russia and China Expand Their Influence
Ali Wyne, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 18, 2020
Lawfare
While the United States is concerned primarily about a resurgent China's inroads in the Middle East, it is also nervous about the gambits of a revanchist Russia. As the United States decides when and how to contest China and Russia—in and beyond the Middle East—it will have to resist alarmism as vigorously as complacency.
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Wildfires
blog
Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 18, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the growing risk of wildfires, how Americans' incomes have grown (or not), workplace screenings for COVID-19 symptoms, and more.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
America's Indo-Pacific Vision Is Becoming a Reality—Because of China
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 14, 2020
Nikkei Asian Review
The Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy has received a significant boost in recent months toward achieving its goal of keeping the region “free and open” from Chinese coercion. Ironically, China itself has been doing the boosting.
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Japan
commentary
Abe's Resignation Could Leave Japan Less Secure—and Destabilize Its U.S. Alliance
Zack Cooper, Jeffrey W. Hornung
Sep 8, 2020
Los Angeles Times
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's leadership, Japan tightened its alliance with the United States and took on a more proactive role in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world. His resignation could very well leave Japan less secure and the U.S.-Japan alliance unstable.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
America Is Betting Big on the Second Island Chain
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Sep 8, 2020
The Diplomat
The United States has deep and abiding interests in the Second Island Chain. But China's growing influence in the region could complicate U.S. plans. Washington will almost certainly seek to strengthen security cooperation with Pacific Island states in the Second Island Chain and bolster defensive positions on U.S. territories in the region.
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Military Strategy
q&a
The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen
Sep 8, 2020
What will the next decade of warfare look like? Raphael Cohen led a project to answer that question for the U.S. Air Force. The team considered not just technological or force changes, but also how global politics, economics, and the environment will shift and evolve between now and 2030.
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Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research

Global Security

PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific

Russian Propaganda, Domestic Terrorism, America's Electric Grid: RAND Weekly Recap

China's Friends Are Few and Unreliable

The United States Can Achieve AI Dominance with Its Allies

Election Interference on Twitter, Insulin Prices, Remote Learning: RAND Weekly Recap

Two Vignettes: How Might Combat Operations Be Different Under the Information Joint Function?

Belarusian Mortgage on Russia's Future

How to Build Better Militaries in Africa: Lessons from Niger

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

Ambiguity Has Its Uses

In the Middle East, Russia and China Expand Their Influence

Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap

America's Indo-Pacific Vision Is Becoming a Reality—Because of China

Abe's Resignation Could Leave Japan Less Secure—and Destabilize Its U.S. Alliance

America Is Betting Big on the Second Island Chain

The Future of Warfare: Q&A with Raphael Cohen

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