Global Security

China
commentary
The Little-Known Security Gaps in China's Belt and Road Initiative
Mollie Saltskog, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 18, 2019
The National Interest
China's Belt and Road Initiative focuses on developing infrastructure to connect Beijing to key hubs of economic activity throughout the world. But the more interests one has abroad, the more one has to protect.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
The U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Is an Opportunity for China
Mollie Saltskog, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 15, 2019
Lawfare
The U.S. withdrawal from Syria could allow Beijing to further assert its role as a key international partner in Syria and, by extension, further its interests in the Middle East. The extent of Sino-Syrian cooperation remains ambiguous but it has reportedly deepened, with China supplying intelligence personnel, strategic advisors, and special forces.
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Russia
commentary
Russia Chooses Paupers as Partners, with Questionable Benefit
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz
Feb 14, 2019
Newsweek
By leveraging the efficiencies of globalization and cultivating ties with prosperous partners, Russia could increase its economic potential and improve living standards for its people. And by engaging more positively with the world, it could gain influence in the forums that matter, such as the G20 and multilateral institutions.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
The Warsaw Summit Is No Madrid
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Feb 13, 2019
New Republic
The peace process begun in Madrid nearly 30 years ago showed promise, but ultimately stalled, and will need rethinking to adapt to today's Middle East. The world could use a worthy successor. The Warsaw summit probably isn't it.
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Globalization
commentary
The Need to Think More Clearly About 'Great-Power Competition'
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Feb 11, 2019
The National Interest
Today's world order is increasingly defined by competition between the United States and a host of major powers, especially China and Russia. Who is America's principal competitor and over what is it competing? What is America’s ultimate objective? And how will it prepare its economy and its society for infinite competition of an indefinite nature?
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Security Cooperation
commentary
How the U.S. Is Thinking About the Quad
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Feb 7, 2019
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
The United States has been consistent in discussing the security objectives it seeks to promote through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But U.S. interactions with other Quad partners have likely convinced Washington to repackage public presentation of the dialogue proceedings and manage its expectations of what the Quad can realistically achieve.
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Nuclear Disarmament
commentary
Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Feb 6, 2019
The National Interest
It is difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. In September, 2018, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But despite Kim's offer, he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, according to multiple reports. If Kim decides to keep stalling, serious tensions could follow.
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United States
blog
State of the Union 2019: Insights from RAND
Feb 6, 2019
To shed light on a wide range of topics that figured in President Trump's second State of the Union address, we've rounded up insights from some of RAND's objective and nonpartisan research, analysis, and expertise.
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Intelligence Collection
commentary
Intelligence Losses Pose Large Risks as U.S. Troops Head Home
Jason H. Campbell @JasonHCampbell, Javed Ali
Jan 24, 2019
The Hill
Departing theaters such as Syria and Afghanistan carries a host of associated risks, challenges and potential benefits. Leaders would be well served to factor into the debate the importance of U.S. intelligence collection capabilities, its connection to U.S. presence overseas and its role in anticipating current and future threats.
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Vietnam
commentary
Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Dung Huynh
Jan 21, 2019
The Diplomat
U.S.-China tensions are rising in the South China Sea. Washington should take solace in the fact that Vietnam's “Three Nos” policy actually offers significant breathing room for defense cooperation.
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Lebanon
commentary
Helping Lebanon Succeed Is More Than About Countering Iran
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jan 16, 2019
The National Interest
As tensions increase on the Israeli-Lebanese border the possibility is growing that a confrontation with Iran may move from Syria to Lebanon. For the United States, turning its back on this small but strategically critical country and conflating U.S. interests in Lebanon solely with countering Iran could be short-sighted, and a missed opportunity at a time when the region has few.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
America's Absence Could Be Syria's New Nightmare
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, William Courtney @courtneywmh
Jan 10, 2019
The National Interest
President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria reverses his administration's recent policy of retaining them as long as Iranian troops stay. U.S. withdrawal would give Bashar al-Assad, Iran, and Russia freer rein to subdue opposition forces. And Assad could feel emboldened to act with greater impunity and brutality.
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Syria
commentary
Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jan 9, 2019
Reuters
Washington's strategy in Syria has been to impose costs on the Syrian government by diplomatic ostracism and economic sanctions. This punitive approach is morally satisfying and politically expedient, but as a practical matter it just helps perpetuate the conflict and sustain Assad's dependency on Iran.
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Syria
commentary
Withdrawing from Syria Leaves a Vacuum That Iran Will Fill
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Jan 8, 2019
Foreign Affairs
President Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Syria may be unintentionally signaling that the United States is unwilling to compete in critical geopolitical hotspots. Such a message could embolden powerful states—including Iran—to expand their presence.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The United States Can't Rely on Turkey to Defeat ISIS
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ahmet S. Yayla
Jan 2, 2019
Foreign Policy
Relying on Turkey to shoulder the burden of countering the Islamic State will provide the terrorist group with an opportunity to revive itself at a critical stage in the fight. Turkey's main focus is on the Kurds and Erdogan's opposition. Eradicating the Islamic State is a secondary priority that has often been ignored.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Trump's Syria Withdrawal: Right Idea, Wrong Way, Wrong Time
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Dec 26, 2018
Reuters
President Trump's desire to withdraw from Syria is consistent with his and his predecessor's national strategies, but the manner in which the decision has been taken is highly counterproductive. Unless modified it could have disastrous consequences, says James Dobbins.
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Global Security

The Little-Known Security Gaps in China's Belt and Road Initiative

The U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Is an Opportunity for China

Russia Chooses Paupers as Partners, with Questionable Benefit

The Warsaw Summit Is No Madrid

The Need to Think More Clearly About 'Great-Power Competition'

How the U.S. Is Thinking About the Quad

Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit

State of the Union 2019: Insights from RAND

Intelligence Losses Pose Large Risks as U.S. Troops Head Home

Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'

Helping Lebanon Succeed Is More Than About Countering Iran

America's Absence Could Be Syria's New Nightmare

Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria

Withdrawing from Syria Leaves a Vacuum That Iran Will Fill

The United States Can't Rely on Turkey to Defeat ISIS

Trump's Syria Withdrawal: Right Idea, Wrong Way, Wrong Time

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