Global Security

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Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine, Gun Violence, Migrant Surges: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the United States can help avoid a long war in Ukraine, responding to the gun violence crisis, limits on teachers’ instruction, and more.

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'Strategic Ambiguity' May Have U.S. and Taiwan Trapped in a Prisoner's Dilemma

For its proponents, the idea of strategic ambiguity seems to have become an end in itself that has not adapted, and logically cannot adapt to the disruptive growth in Beijing's military power. The conditions under which the policy worked seem to have evaporated with China's rise. Strategic clarity may offer a way out of this dilemma.

Raymond Kuo @Kuorum1

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How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected

There are predictions aplenty that Russia's war on Ukraine will persist. But it could also end soon. Kremlin regime change, a Russian army collapse, or a Ukrainian win are possible. None of these contingencies should be ruled out.

Peter A. Wilson, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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What's Korean About South Korea's Indo-Pacific Strategy?

The Korean Indo-Pacific Strategy may not be a sign of South Korea pivoting or leaning toward the United States over China. That conclusion could present a false dichotomy.

Erik Mobrand

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Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy

Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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A Potential Russian Attack on NATO, China in the Arctic, Inflation: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the West might respond in the case of a limited Russian attack on NATO, what China's Arctic ambitions mean to the United States, how inflation affects middle-class households, and more.

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The Myth of America's Ukraine Fatigue

Perceptions that the United States has “Ukraine fatigue” may be more myth than reality. It could be years before any declines in the American public's support for Ukraine actually result in a change of policy.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

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Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security

Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Can the War in Ukraine Help the United States Address Security Concerns in the Indo-Pacific?

Even as the Russian military continues to struggle in Ukraine, Air Force leaders and top national security experts at the 2022 West Coast Aerospace Forum warned not to expect similar outcomes in a potential conflict with China. The 7th annual event focused on applying lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

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India Upholds the Rules-Based Liberal International Order—But in Its Own Way

Contrary to continued U.S. questions about the degree of New Delhi's commitment to the liberal international order, India has shown that it is committed in its own, sometimes limited way. Of course, securing Indian national interests will always be paramount. U.S. policymakers might recognize that any additional pressure is likely to be counterproductive.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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How China Is Building Influence Through Arms Sales

China may be using arms sales to strengthen alliances around the South China Sea and counter the United States' regional alliances. Beijing's security relationships around the South China Sea could be a harbinger of what it might replicate in Africa and possibly Latin America.

Melissa Shostak, Cortney Weinbaum @cortney_dc

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The Racial Wealth Gap, the Effects of Long COVID, Teacher Diversity: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on understanding the racial wealth gap, why long COVID may threaten the U.S. economy, what prevents people of color from becoming and staying teachers, and more.

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Arctic Governance Is in Trouble. The Antarctic Could Be Next

The war in Ukraine has shattered the myth that the polar regions are somehow immune from global geopolitics. If Arctic governance is in trouble, the Antarctic could follow.

Benjamin J. Sacks, Marigold Black, et al.

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Protests in China, Negotiating with Russia, L.A.'s 'Mansion Tax': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on protests in China amid the government's zero-COVID policy, the potential harm in negotiating with Russia, building more affordable housing in Los Angeles, and more.