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Iran

Warfare and Military Operations
commentary
A Glass Half Empty? Taking Stock of Hezbollah's Losses in Syria
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Oct 17, 2017
The Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah has gained valuable combat experience in Syria, but the cost of that experience may not outweigh the losses in troops, the damage to its image and the need to cede some of its autonomy to Iran and the Assad regime. The longer the war drags on, the more apparent these losses will become.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Punting on the Iran Nuclear Deal
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Oct 16, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
President Trump has signaled that he is likely to decline to certify that Iran is adhering to its nuclear deal commitments. The alternatives to the agreement are clear: Iran will develop nuclear weapons, the U.S. will go to war to prevent this, or both.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Decertifying the Iran Nuclear Deal Would Not Increase U.S. Leverage
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye
Oct 5, 2017
Jewish Journal
The Iran nuclear agreement is not perfect, but it is working. Iran is no longer on the brink of being able to produce a nuclear weapon as it was two years ago. The suggestion that decertifying would increase U.S. leverage to renegotiate and strengthen the agreement is unrealistic.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
commentary
How We Can Keep Iran from Becoming the Next North Korea
Michael J. Mazarr
Aug 22, 2017
Fortune
The United States brokered an agreement to constrain North Korea's nuclear program 25 years ago, but hard-liners abandoned it with vague intentions of coercing the North into something better. They never did, and now a runaway North Korean program poses real danger. This offers a powerful reason to preserve the Iran nuclear deal.
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Nation Building
commentary
Islamic State 2.0
Seth G. Jones @SethGJones
Aug 10, 2017
The Wall Street Journal
Many of Iraq's Sunnis are frustrated with the slow pace of reconstruction and a Baghdad government they consider too friendly to Iran. The U.S. needs to shift from supporting military operations in cities such as Mosul to helping the Iraqi government better address political grievances. Failure risks sowing the seeds of ISIS's resurgence.
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Middle East
commentary
State Competition, Not Sectarianism, Key Driver of Middle East Politics
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye
Aug 3, 2017
Axios
Sectarianism is real and dangerous in the Middle East, but the region is more complicated. The next leaders in Iran and Saudi Arabia, under pressure from youthful populations and worsening economic challenges, may no longer see value in a costly sectarian agenda.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides
Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye, Jeffrey Martini
Jun 7, 2017
The National Interest
Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.
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Iran
commentary
Why Trump's Pressures on Iran Won't Benefit America
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
May 25, 2017
Fortune
The Trump administration has demonstrated a renewed policy of pressure against Iran. In doing so, it risks losing the ability to leverage the greatest potential source of change in Iran: millions of Iranians who want a better country at peace with the world.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Caliphate Is Crumbling: What Comes Next?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Craig Whiteside
May 3, 2017
War on the Rocks
ISIL's caliphate is crumbling. But unless the U.S.-led coalition can reduce the many possibilities that might give ISIL's down-and-out members a reason to fight on, the militants will continue to contribute to disorder in the region.
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Iran
commentary
Could Iran's Rouhani Lose?
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
May 3, 2017
RealClearWorld
In this month's presidential election Rouhani is running against Ebrahim Raisi, a trusted member of the revolutionary establishment. The Iranian population continues to live under duress and may be open to new candidates. The Iran nuclear deal hasn't resulted in the great economic windfall Rouhani promised.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Sticking with the Complicated U.S.-Iran Relationship
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
Mar 2, 2017
The Cipher Brief
The United States and Iran differ on many issues, but they signed what has so far been a successful nuclear agreement and both seek to defeat the Islamic State. The U.S. would have more to gain by sticking with the relationship than by pursuing a policy of “regime change.”
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Hezbollah Is Winning the War in Syria
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Chad C. Serena
Jan 30, 2017
The National Interest
Most parties have been on the losing side of the war in Syria. Meanwhile, Lebanese terrorist militia Hezbollah has cemented its status as a regional power player. The group has gained fighting experience and benefited from a growing alliance with the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia.
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Russia
commentary
Iran at Putin's Mercy
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
Jan 12, 2017
The National Interest
Russia and Iran have forged an unprecedented but fragile alliance in the Middle East. But there's no guarantee that Putin won't sell Iran out if he manages to forge better U.S. relations under Trump.
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Cyber Warfare
commentary
America's Cyber Security Dilemma — and a Way Out
Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Dec 22, 2016
Defense One
The United States should continue to pursue international cooperation in cyberspace, improve its ability to identify and expose the sources of attacks, and improve its oversight of the development and adoption of cyber-related technologies.
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Nuclear Deterrence
blog
The Return of a Cold War Threat
Nov 15, 2016
The danger of blundering into a nuclear war through miscalculation or human error has returned, said former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry at RAND's Politics Aside event. No leader is seeking nuclear war, but there are new dangers that didn't exist during the Cold War that could lead to one.
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Iran
commentary
Whoever Wins the Presidency, the Next Big International Crisis Will Come from Iran
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
Sep 29, 2016
Fox News Channel
The next U.S. president is likely to meet many international crises after taking office, and Iran may be one of the most challenging. The continuing climate of repression, the next Iranian presidential election, and Khamenei's eventual demise may provide some important opportunities for him or her.
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Iran

A Glass Half Empty? Taking Stock of Hezbollah's Losses in Syria

Punting on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Decertifying the Iran Nuclear Deal Would Not Increase U.S. Leverage

How We Can Keep Iran from Becoming the Next North Korea

Islamic State 2.0

State Competition, Not Sectarianism, Key Driver of Middle East Politics

Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides

Why Trump's Pressures on Iran Won't Benefit America

The Caliphate Is Crumbling: What Comes Next?

Could Iran's Rouhani Lose?

Sticking with the Complicated U.S.-Iran Relationship

Hezbollah Is Winning the War in Syria

Iran at Putin's Mercy

America's Cyber Security Dilemma — and a Way Out

The Return of a Cold War Threat

Whoever Wins the Presidency, the Next Big International Crisis Will Come from Iran

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