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Iran
commentary
Syria Changed the Iranian Way of War
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 16, 2019
Foreign Affairs
As tensions rise between Washington and Tehran, the United States and its partners will begin to feel the effects of Iran's military transformation. To get a sense of the playbook that Tehran might consult in any future conflict with the United States, Washington should pay close attention to what the Iranians have learned in Syria.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Hormuz Dilemma
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Aug 16, 2019
The Hill
With rising tensions between the United States and Iran, the United States wants to create a coalition to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, and wants Japan to join. While Japan is one of America's staunchest allies in the Indo-Pacific, any decision to support coalition efforts is likely to put Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a difficult position.
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Iran
commentary
Iran's Cooperation with the Taliban Could Affect Talks on U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 9, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has acknowledged that his country has some level of cooperation with the Taliban. How did Iran's relationship with the Taliban come about? And how might it affect the future of U.S.-Taliban talks?
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Military Strategy
commentary
The Flawed Logic of Proportionality
Raphael S. Cohen
Jul 1, 2019
The Hill
President Trump halted a retaliatory strike against Iran on the basis that it would have claimed many Iranian lives and was not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. There are many good reasons to avoid attacking Iran, but if Washington must resort to force in the future, it should avoid the flawed logic of proportionality.
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Warfare and Military Operations
commentary
Changing the Way America Goes to War
Michael J. Mazarr
Jun 25, 2019
Fox News Channel
America's vast power, and the weakness of most of its enemies, has allowed it to get away with a striking absence of deliberative judgment when deciding on war, as the Iraq case makes clear. But that free pass is coming to an end. It's time for the United States to rethink the way it decides on wars of choice.
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Iran
commentary
A Post-2020 U.S. Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Elisa Catalano Ewers
Jun 20, 2019
Foreign Policy
Now that the United States is out of the Iran nuclear deal, signing back on will not be as simple or as practical as some may hope. Too much has happened since it was first inked in 2015. With the political landscape in Tehran and Washington still taking shape, those who want to return to some kind of deal should start planning.
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Iran
commentary
The Costs of Confrontation with Iran Are Mounting
Dalia Dassa Kaye
Jun 17, 2019
The Hill
Even if the United States and Iran avoid a direct military clash, recent escalation and the U.S. maximum pressure campaign are exacting long-term costs for U.S. interests and regional stability in ways that may be difficult if not impossible to reverse.
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Iran
commentary
Iran's Network of Fighters in the Middle East Aren't Always Loyal to Iran
Becca Wasser @Becca_Wasser, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
May 21, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iran's nonstate partners are emerging as central players in the escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran, and may be a driver of further escalation. But how involved is Iran with these proxy groups?
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Iran
commentary
The U.S. and Iran: Beyond the Rhetoric
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
May 17, 2019
Haaretz
Since the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, tensions between the two countries have increased. Washington has stepped up pressure on Tehran in the hopes of reopening negotiations or ushering in the regime's collapse, while inside Iran, President Rouhani is facing pressure to retaliate.
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Nuclear Deterrence
commentary
Can Anyone Save the Iran Nuclear Deal Now?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
May 10, 2019
New York Times
Europe faces mounting pressure from both Tehran and Washington regarding the Iran nuclear deal. European countries could take steps to signal their commitment to upholding the deal, but doing so may alienate the United States.
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Iran
commentary
U.S., Iran Must Both Tread Lightly with Tensions Running So High
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai, Becca Wasser @Becca_Wasser
May 9, 2019
The Hill
Tensions between the United States and Iran have increased, raising concerns that they may be headed for war. But conflict is not inevitable. The United States and Iran could seek to re-establish communications channels, as well as look for available off-ramps to de-escalate tensions and keep the slightest misstep from spiraling into an all-out conflict.
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Iran
commentary
The U.S. Designated the Revolutionary Guards as a Terrorist Group. What Happens Next?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Apr 11, 2019
Foreign Policy
The U.S. designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization was meant to serve America's interests by isolating Iran. Instead, it may increase the likelihood of a tit-for-tat escalation that will require significant resources to avoid a broader regional conflagration.
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Iran
commentary
Can the U.S. Attain Foreign Policy Goals with 'Maximum Pressure' Campaigns?
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Mar 6, 2019
Foreign Policy
The Trump administration's record in two of today's most pressing nuclear nonproliferation challenges, North Korea and Iran, highlights the potential dangers of a “maximum pressure” strategy.
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Iran
commentary
Behind the 'Surprise' Resignation of Iran's Foreign Minister
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Feb 26, 2019
Foreign Policy
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, announced his resignation after a nearly six-year tenure. His resignation has sparked as much controversy as his tenure, one dominated by overtures to the West and resulting tensions at home. Although his departure will likely be felt most acutely in Europe, it may have a deeper impact in Tehran.
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Politics and Government
commentary
Hezbollah Is in Venezuela to Stay
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Feb 11, 2019
Foreign Policy
Whatever the benefits of replacing the current Venezuelan regime with Washington's preferred alternative, Juan Guaidó, there's reason to doubt that it would change the country's problematic relationship with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is well-entrenched in Venezuela, where it has established a vast infrastructure for its criminal activities.
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Iran
commentary
The Islamic Republic's Foreign Policy at Forty
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Feb 8, 2019
Atlantic Council
Forty years have passed since the Islamic Revolution. While Iran hasn't departed from its revolutionary roots, its foreign policy today is largely shaped by threat perceptions and interests, not ideology.
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