Publications by Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows

Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows carry out a year-long period of independent research but are also given an opportunity to be associated with RAND client-sponsored research. Within their RAND tenure, fellows are expected to produce policy-relevant studies that contribute to the general body of knowledge on nuclear security. The written product is considered for publication by RAND.

RAND Publications

False Alarms, True Dangers?

Anthony Barrett
Understanding how miscalculations and misperceptions can lead to the use of nuclear weapons is an important step toward reducing the probability of an inadvertent nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia.
Overcoming Obstacles to Advanced Reactor Technologies

Edward Geist
This perspective examines the institutional and technical obstacles to the commercialization of advanced nuclear reactors for electrical power generation in the United States.
The Days After a Deal with Iran

Jeffrey Kaplow, Rebecca Gibbons
One of a series of RAND Perspectives on what the Middle East and U.S. policy might look like in "the days after a deal" with Iran, this Perspective examines a deal's implications for the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
The United States' European Phased Adaptive Approach Missile Defense System

Jaganath Sankaran
The reformed European Phased Adaptive Approach missile defense system remains capable of reaching Iranian missiles without diluting Russia's deterrent. This change policy should enable further U.S.-Russia nuclear arms reduction talks.
Facing the Missile Challenge

David W. Kearn, Jr.
Report assesses whether the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty continues to serve America's national interests, or whether adherence unduly constrains the U.S. ability to effectively respond to emerging security threats.
Containing Iran

Robert Reardon
This study assesses U.S. policy options on the Iranian nuclear question by addressing how to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and, failing this, how best to mitigate the negative international effects of a nuclear-armed Iran.
Characterizing the North Korean Nuclear Missile Threat

Markus Schiller
Questions the current common view of the North Korean missile program and seeks to better characterize the North Korean missile threat by comparing the available data on the North Korea missile program against several possible hypotheses.

Commentaries

Biden's Rhetoric on Ukraine Has Been Quite Moderate. Here's What That Means
President Biden's public statements since December have focused on how further Russian invasion of Ukraine would result in material consequences. His rhetorical restraint may have important implications for the current conflict.
Abigail S. Post
Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal
History shows that many countries with advanced nuclear technologies but without nuclear bombs opt to stay that way. There are reasons to believe that Iran, too, may choose to remain non-nuclear at least in the foreseeable future.
Mayumi Fukushima
Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan
As the only country to suffer the horrors of wartime atomic bombings, one would assume Japan would eagerly sign any treaty to ban such weapons. Why hasn't Japan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in January 2021?
Sayuri Romei
Suga-Biden Summit: Rekindling Confidence in the U.S.-Japan Alliance
The April summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga signaled a deepening in the U.S.-Japan alliance. It highlighted important new areas of cooperation and a concrete agenda for U.S.-Japan relations.
Sayuri Romei, Scott W. Harold
Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia
By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.
Luke Griffith
Maximizing Bargaining Leverage with Beijing: Developing Missiles as Bargaining Chips
Arms negotiations may offer the only way to reduce the grave threat posed to the United States and allied security by China's missiles. U.S. owned and operated missiles could provide the best bargaining chips.
Luke Griffith
Jumpstarting Arms Control Talks with Russia: A Low-Risk Gambit
In 2019, Russia proposed a moratorium on missile deployments in Europe. If the United States does not accept, it could increase the threat to NATO allies and provide Moscow with more bargaining chips in future arms negotiations.
Luke Griffith
Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020
North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Risks
North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
After the Hanoi Summit
The best-case scenario for future U.S.-North Korea relations is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un remain committed to diplomacy. In the worst case, both countries' frustrations could spiral out of control.
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
A Political Earthquake in Seoul and Its Repercussions for U.S. Policy
With new administrations in the U.S. and South Korea, it's time to find a middle ground and set up a new common policy toward North Korea. The pressures felt by both countries make the relationship all the more vital to the historical allies.
Booseung Chang
Finding a Nuclear Weapon: Hope Beyond the Screwdriver
Science and technology is only partly at the point of reliably detecting a nuclear weapon in cities — for some weapons and some adversaries. The solutions for this problem are only partial and are complicated by the nuances of the science.
Edward Jay Cazalas
The End of Nuclear Proliferation?
As the last case of nuclear proliferation fades further into history, it may become politically difficult to allocate resources to preventing it as other pressing threats, such as bio- and cyber-terrorism, continue to emerge. The time to act to keep nuclear proliferation a thing of the past is now.
Todd C. Robinson
Nuclear Weapons Should Be on the U.S.-China Summit Agenda
At the impending U.S.-China summit, it would make sense for Obama to put on the table official discussions of strategic nuclear issues between U.S. and Chinese government or military representatives.
Caroline R. Milne
Pakistan's Shocking Strategic Shift
Pakistan's security policies have experienced striking but underappreciated shifts since 2001 along three dimensions: aggressive behavior, strategic orientation, and self-examination.
Sameer Lalwani
Out of the Mushroom Cloud's Shadow
With Japan's nuclear restraint no longer the article of faith it once was, the significance of the nuclear pacts struck decades ago will become ever more consequential.
Jonathan Reid Hunt
Too Important to Fail
Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state would contribute to global security, and especially to the security and stability of the Middle East, but these are not the only considerations at hand.
Rebecca Gibbons