Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022, photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022

Photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it set off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, it's unclear what will happen next. How might the conflict evolve? Is a negotiated settlement possible? And if so, then what are the potential implications of such an agreement? And how can the West continue to hold Putin accountable while mitigating the risks of a wider war between Russia and NATO?

A vast body of previously published RAND research and analysis can shed light on these questions and more. Plus, dozens of RAND experts are providing timely insights that may help inform policy responses to Russia's war.

Featured Research

  • A large illustration of a stamp seen in downtown Kyiv, October 9, 2022, photo by Danylo Antoniuk/ZUMA Press Wire

    Who's Winning the Information War in Ukraine?

    Many prominent Western news outlets and policymakers have concluded that Ukraine is winning the information war. Are Ukraine's information campaigns, in fact, more persuasive than Russia's? If so, why?

Russian Strategy and Capabilities

  • Russian service members drive tanks during drills at the Kadamovsky range in the Rostov region, Russia, February 3, 2022, photo by Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters

    Report

    Logistics and Sustainment Issues of the Russian Armed Forces

    Failures in the Russian logistics and maintenance system have been identified as a key factor in Russia's underperformance in Ukraine in 2022. A review of dozens of unclassified documents and articles provides insights into Russia's military problems before and in the early stages of its invasion.

    Nov 15, 2023

Ukrainian Capabilities, Civilian Resistance, and the Will to Fight

Refugees and the Humanitarian Crisis

  • Teacher Aleksandra Artemova teaches Ukrainian refugee children during a school preparation course in Dusseldorf, Germany, March 18, 2022, photo by Thilo Schmuelgen/Reuters

    Commentary

    The EU Can't Treat Ukrainian Refugees Like Short-Term Visitors

    Although EU countries, communities, and citizens have been very welcoming to Ukrainian refugees, it is not enough to treat them as short-term visitors, meet their immediate humanitarian needs, and let them wait out the war. By educating and employing them instead, EU countries can enrich their own communities and support Ukraine.

    Jul 24, 2023

Diplomatic and Political Dimensions

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia

  • U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin meet for the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021, photo by Denis Balibouse/Reuters

    Commentary

    U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia Is Here to Stay

    Competition between the United States and Russia occurs at many levels, from the military arena to the economic, political, and social realms. A review of 58 RAND reports on this topic highlights major findings and explores key aspects of the deteriorating U.S.-Russia relationship.

    Jan 31, 2022