Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022, photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022

Photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, setting off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, it's unclear what will happen next. How might the conflict evolve? Is a negotiated settlement possible? And if so, then what are the potential implications of such an agreement? And how can the West continue to hold Putin accountable while mitigating the risks of a wider war between Russia and NATO?

A vast body of previously published RAND research and analysis can shed light on these questions and more. Plus, dozens of RAND experts are providing timely insights that may help inform policy responses to Russia's war.

Russian Strategy and Capabilities

  • Commentary

    Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater

    Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. How do we interpret Putin's statements? While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda.

    Apr 17, 2023

Ukrainian Capabilities, Civilian Resistance, and the Will to Fight

Refugees and the Humanitarian Crisis

  • Report

    Weighing Options for Ukraine's Recovery

    In making decisions about reconstruction, the Ukrainian people and their government will face trade-offs regarding timelines, prioritization of efforts, leadership, and funding. Understanding these trade-offs can improve their decisions and contribute to the transparency and integrity of the process.

    May 2, 2023

Diplomatic and Political Dimensions

  • Report

    Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine

    The United States has a strong interest in avoiding a long war in Ukraine. Although Washington cannot alone determine the war's duration, it can take steps to make an eventual negotiated peace more likely.

    Jan 25, 2023

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia

  • Report

    U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia Is Here to Stay

    Competition between the United States and Russia occurs at many levels, from the military arena to the economic, political, and social realms. A review of 58 RAND reports on this topic highlights major findings and explores key aspects of the deteriorating U.S.-Russia relationship.

    Jan 31, 2022