Tobias Sytsma — Publications

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Buying Time Against AI Proliferation: The Economics of Governed Access

2026
Can AGI Rivals Hold Back? Verification, Domestic Oversight, and the Conditions for Mutual Restraint

2026
The Composition of Federal R&D Spending and U.S. Productivity Growth

2026
Decisive Economic Advantage: Modeling the Transition from Temporary First-Mover Leads to Economic Dominance in Artificial General Intelligence

2026
The Economics of AI Counterproliferation: A Stylized Economic Framework

2026
A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence: Maintaining Freedom of Action

2026
Combating Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains: Is U.S. Trade Enforcement Making a Difference, and Can It Do More?

2025
The Dynamics Behind Artificial Intelligence's Impact on Productivity Growth

2025
Finding International Rockstar Researchers: Identifying Predictors of Success Following an International Move

2025
Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains: Trade Enforcement Impacts and Opportunities

2025
Managing AI's Economic Future: Strategic Automation Policy in an Era of Global Competition

2025
Quantifying AI’s Economic Potential: Growth Differentials Between Assistive and Autonomous Development Scenarios

2025
U.S.-China Economic Competition: Gains and Risks in a Complex Economic and Geopolitical Relationship

2025
AI and the Future of Work

2024
Assessing Risk to National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change: 2023 Risk Assessment Update

2024
Evaluating Natural Monopoly Conditions in the AI Foundation Model Market

2024
Expanding the Geographic Footprint of Army JROTC: An Analysis of Instructor and School Perspectives, Site Sustainability, and the Instructor Pipeline

2024
Informing Clean Energy Planning in California's San Joaquin Valley

2024
Leading with Artificial Intelligence: Insights for U.S. Civilian and Military Leaders on Strengthening the AI Workforce

2024
Technological and Economic Threats to the U.S. Financial System: An Initial Assessment of Growing Risks

2024
Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force: A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying Exposed Occupations

2023
Assessing Pittsburgh's Science- and Technology-Focused Workforce Ecosystem

2023
The Budgetary Effects of Climate Change and Their Potential Influence on Legislation: Recommendations for a Model of the Federal Budget

2023
Climate Adaptation Strategies for National Critical Functions

2023
How Can DoD Compare Damage Costs Against Resilience Investment Costs for Climate-Driven Natural Hazards? Overview of an Analytic Approach, Its Advantages, and Its Limitations

2023
Rage Against the Machine? Knowing How Technology and Artificial Intelligence Have — and Have Not — Affected Jobs in Recent Decades Offers Insight into How They Could Affect the Future of Work

2023
Science and Technology-Focused Postsecondary Options in the Pittsburgh Area

2023
Strategies to Mitigate the Risk to the National Critical Functions Generated by Climate Change

2023
Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change

2022
Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence?

2022
The Globalization of Remote Work: Will Digital Offshoring Make Waves in the U.S. Labor Market?

2022
Improving Preferential Market Access Through Rules of Origin: Firm-Level Evidence from Bangladesh

2021
Rules of Origin and Trade Preference Utilization Among Least Developed Countries

2021

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Tobias Sytsma — Publications

Buying Time Against AI Proliferation: The Economics of Governed Access

Can AGI Rivals Hold Back? Verification, Domestic Oversight, and the Conditions for Mutual Restraint

The Composition of Federal R&D Spending and U.S. Productivity Growth

Decisive Economic Advantage: Modeling the Transition from Temporary First-Mover Leads to Economic Dominance in Artificial General Intelligence

The Economics of AI Counterproliferation: A Stylized Economic Framework

A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence: Maintaining Freedom of Action

Combating Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains: Is U.S. Trade Enforcement Making a Difference, and Can It Do More?

The Dynamics Behind Artificial Intelligence's Impact on Productivity Growth

Finding International Rockstar Researchers: Identifying Predictors of Success Following an International Move

Forced Labor in Global Supply Chains: Trade Enforcement Impacts and Opportunities

Managing AI's Economic Future: Strategic Automation Policy in an Era of Global Competition

Quantifying AI’s Economic Potential: Growth Differentials Between Assistive and Autonomous Development Scenarios

U.S.-China Economic Competition: Gains and Risks in a Complex Economic and Geopolitical Relationship

AI and the Future of Work

Assessing Risk to National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change: 2023 Risk Assessment Update

Evaluating Natural Monopoly Conditions in the AI Foundation Model Market

Expanding the Geographic Footprint of Army JROTC: An Analysis of Instructor and School Perspectives, Site Sustainability, and the Instructor Pipeline

Informing Clean Energy Planning in California's San Joaquin Valley

Leading with Artificial Intelligence: Insights for U.S. Civilian and Military Leaders on Strengthening the AI Workforce

Technological and Economic Threats to the U.S. Financial System: An Initial Assessment of Growing Risks

Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force: A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying Exposed Occupations

Assessing Pittsburgh's Science- and Technology-Focused Workforce Ecosystem

The Budgetary Effects of Climate Change and Their Potential Influence on Legislation: Recommendations for a Model of the Federal Budget

Climate Adaptation Strategies for National Critical Functions

How Can DoD Compare Damage Costs Against Resilience Investment Costs for Climate-Driven Natural Hazards? Overview of an Analytic Approach, Its Advantages, and Its Limitations

Rage Against the Machine? Knowing How Technology and Artificial Intelligence Have — and Have Not — Affected Jobs in Recent Decades Offers Insight into How They Could Affect the Future of Work

Science and Technology-Focused Postsecondary Options in the Pittsburgh Area

Strategies to Mitigate the Risk to the National Critical Functions Generated by Climate Change

Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change

Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence?

The Globalization of Remote Work: Will Digital Offshoring Make Waves in the U.S. Labor Market?

Improving Preferential Market Access Through Rules of Origin: Firm-Level Evidence from Bangladesh

Rules of Origin and Trade Preference Utilization Among Least Developed Countries