Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 1 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback44 pages $16.00 $12.80 20% Web Discount

Controversy has surrounded China's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea (ECS). Questions about the zone's legitimacy, legality, ambiguity, implementation, and purpose have generated significant debate. U.S. observers appear particularly concerned about the implications for a potential ADIZ in the South China Sea (SCS). This report builds on existing reports and Chinese-language open sources to explore questions about the ECS ADIZ and evaluate the prospects for a possible SCS ADIZ. We assess the different situation and context facing Beijing in the SCS and argue that the calculus there does not necessarily suggest that the Chinese government will declare an SCS ADIZ. While Beijing's recent statements imply that it is keeping its options open, China's leaders are dealing from a stronger political and military position in the SCS because of their well-documented reclamation and construction of military facilities there. They have already used other tools, including deploying combat aircraft and air defense missiles, in the SCS that are arguably more effective in achieving their objectives.

Key Findings

  • China's inclusion of the Senkakus (Diaoyus) in its East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) certainly has not created new normative behaviors that favor China and its claim there.
  • Declaring an ADIZ (or more than one) in the South China Sea could arguably work against Chinese strategic goals there.
  • However, China could establish a South China Sea ADIZ after deciding that U.S. operations or diplomatic/political-military developments had reached a point that necessitated an additional response from Beijing.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    ECS ADIZ

  • Chapter Three

    A Future SCS ADIZ?

  • Chapter Four

    Conclusion

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the United States Air Force and conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.