Controversy has surrounded China's East China Sea (ECS) Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) since its establishment in 2013. This report explores questions about the ECS ADIZ and evaluates the prospects for a possible South China Sea ADIZ. While Beijing's recent statements imply that it is keeping its options open, China's leaders have used other tools in the SCS that are arguably more effective in achieving their objectives.

In Line or Out of Order?

China's Approach to ADIZ in Theory and Practice

Edmund J. Burke, Astrid Stuth Cevallos

ResearchPublished Nov 10, 2017

Controversy has surrounded China's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea (ECS). Questions about the zone's legitimacy, legality, ambiguity, implementation, and purpose have generated significant debate. U.S. observers appear particularly concerned about the implications for a potential ADIZ in the South China Sea (SCS). This report builds on existing reports and Chinese-language open sources to explore questions about the ECS ADIZ and evaluate the prospects for a possible SCS ADIZ. We assess the different situation and context facing Beijing in the SCS and argue that the calculus there does not necessarily suggest that the Chinese government will declare an SCS ADIZ. While Beijing's recent statements imply that it is keeping its options open, China's leaders are dealing from a stronger political and military position in the SCS because of their well-documented reclamation and construction of military facilities there. They have already used other tools, including deploying combat aircraft and air defense missiles, in the SCS that are arguably more effective in achieving their objectives.

Key Findings

  • China's inclusion of the Senkakus (Diaoyus) in its East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) certainly has not created new normative behaviors that favor China and its claim there.
  • Declaring an ADIZ (or more than one) in the South China Sea could arguably work against Chinese strategic goals there.
  • However, China could establish a South China Sea ADIZ after deciding that U.S. operations or diplomatic/political-military developments had reached a point that necessitated an additional response from Beijing.

Order a Print Copy

Format
Paperback
Page count
44 pages
List Price
$16.00
Buy link
Add to Cart

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2017
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 44
  • Paperback Price: $16.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-9865-8
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2055
  • Document Number: RR-2055-AF

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Burke, Edmund J. and Astrid Stuth Cevallos, In Line or Out of Order? China's Approach to ADIZ in Theory and Practice, RAND Corporation, RR-2055-AF, 2017. As of September 7, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2055.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Burke, Edmund J. and Astrid Stuth Cevallos, In Line or Out of Order? China's Approach to ADIZ in Theory and Practice. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2055.html. Also available in print form.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the United States Air Force and conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.