Further Trade Uncertainty Related to Brexit Could Cost UK Economy Billions
Jan 28, 2020
This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. It is estimated that by the end of the initially planned transition period in 2020, UK GDP could be 0.17 percentage points lower compared to if the UK was not in a renegotiation period about its future trading relation with the EU. Equivalent to a GDP loss of about $5.5bn.
Assessing the potential economic implications of prolonged UK–EU trade policy uncertainty
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This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. Specifically, the report focuses on the effects on UK trade and foreign direct investment.
The UK since the vote to leave the EU
Estimating the macroeconomic implications of trade policy uncertainty related to the ongoing UK–EU renegotiation period
Conclusions — The end of the beginning
The macroeconomic model
GDP effects for the EU-27
Funding for this research was made possible by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its US Department of Defense federally funded research and development centres. The research was conducted by RAND Europe.
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