News Release
Further Trade Uncertainty Related to Brexit Could Cost UK Economy Billions
Jan 28, 2020
This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. It is estimated that by the end of the initially planned transition period in 2020, UK GDP could be 0.17 percentage points lower compared to if the UK was not in a renegotiation period about its future trading relation with the EU. Equivalent to a GDP loss of about $5.5bn.
Assessing the potential economic implications of prolonged UK–EU trade policy uncertainty
Format | File Size | Notes |
---|---|---|
PDF file | 0.7 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. Specifically, the report focuses on the effects on UK trade and foreign direct investment.
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
The UK since the vote to leave the EU
Chapter Three
Estimating the macroeconomic implications of trade policy uncertainty related to the ongoing UK–EU renegotiation period
Chapter Four
Conclusions — The end of the beginning
Appendix A
The macroeconomic model
Appendix B
GDP effects for the EU-27
Funding for this research was made possible by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its US Department of Defense federally funded research and development centres. The research was conducted by RAND Europe.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.