Research Brief
How Effective Are Military Academy Admission Standards?
Jul 22, 2016
This report explores the relationship between the current scoring of data for applicants to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and two subsequent outcomes: probability of graduating and probability of officer promotion. Using a series of logistic regression models and a boosted logistic regression, the results suggest that that the current candidate scoring system as the primary basis for admission decisions at West Point is effective.
Selecting for Success at the Military Academy/West Point and as an Officer
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This report explores the relationship between the current scoring of data for applicants to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and two subsequent outcomes: probability of graduating and probability of officer promotion. These outcomes are important because when a cadet enters but does not graduate, he or she fills a class seat that could have been filled by someone else who might have graduated, and the cost cannot be recouped. The authors considered candidate scores on several characteristics, including aptitude, athletics, extracurriculars, faculty appraisal, and school ranking. Using a series of logistic regression models and a boosted logistic regression, the results suggest that the current candidate scoring system as the primary basis for admission decisions at West Point is effective.
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Applying to West Point
Chapter Three
Analysis of Success at West Point
Chapter Four
Analysis of Career Success
Chapter Five
Conclusions
Appendix A
Sample Used in Explaining West Point Success, Early Promotion, and O-5 Promotion
Appendix B
Model Comparison for Predicting Promotion to O-5
Appendix C
Correlations Among the Analysis Variables
Appendix D
Interpreting Coefficients from the Logistic Regression
Appendix E
Comparison of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves
This research was sponsored by the Director of Accession Policy, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense, (Personnel and Readiness) and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
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