The U.S. Space Force (USSF) is tasked by Congress to support the U.S. space launch industrial base and sustain robust launch capability. In 2019, a RAND team assessed the global heavy lift launch market to understand the impact of national security launch acquisition decisions on that mandate. In this update to that assessment, the team explores how recent market dynamics might affect the USSF's ability to meet national security space demand.

Assessing the Impact of U.S. Air Force National Security Space Launch Acquisition Decisions

2023 Update

Bonnie L. Triezenberg, Éder M. Sousa, Emily Allendorf, Hansell Perez, Jonathan Roberts, Mack Rodgers

ResearchPublished Sep 16, 2024

The U.S. military depends on space-based assets for strategic and tactical communications, for collection of imagery over contested areas, for warning of missile launches, and for precision navigation and timing. The ability to replenish those assets in a timely fashion may affect overall force readiness. The U.S. Space Force (USSF) is required to sustain at least two viable U.S.-based launch service providers for national security space (NSS) payloads. In 2019, a RAND team assessed the global heavy lift launch market to understand the impact of NSS acquisition decisions on that market. Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) and United Launch Alliance (ULA) are the current NSS launch providers, having been selected for the Phase 2 launch contracts awarded between fiscal years 2020 and 2024. Although ULA is retiring its prior NSS-certified launch vehicles, its new vehicle has yet to complete NSS certification, leaving the USSF temporarily reliant on SpaceX as the only NSS-certified launch service provider.

The RAND team was asked to update its assessment of the launch markets to better understand how the USSF might shape future acquisition strategies or prepare for operational risks introduced by past acquisition decisions. The authors examine historical and projected levels of supply and demand in the global and NSS heavy lift launch markets. They forecast demand over the next ten years (2024–2033) and explore how assumptions regarding future market dynamics might affect the USSF's ability to meet NSS demand and sustain at least two certified suppliers.

Key Findings

  • The average yearly global launch demand addressable by U.S. firms is largely unchanged since the 2019 assessment; while demand is diversifying, only slight overall growth can be expected in the next five years.
  • There are few viable competitors in the global addressable launch market; SpaceX dominates, with a 70-percent share of the addressable demand in 2022 (compared with a 40-percent share in 2019).
  • Given the current lack of competitors, several firms are seeking to enter the heavy lift launch market; should any be successful, rapid consolidation should be expected in the market.
  • Despite the diversity offered by the possible new entrants, there is little diversity in the key resources (fuel, launch complexes, and engine suppliers) needed for launch.
  • NSS Phase 2 awards to ULA's Vulcan launch vehicle and subsequent delays in Vulcan's development have created a significant backlog; the last payloads awarded under the Phase 2 contract are likely to experience a two-and-one-half-year delay as this backlog is serviced.

Recommendations

  • The USSF should make prudent preparations for a future that has only two U.S. providers of NSS-certified heavy lift launch, at least one of which may have little support from the commercial addressable marketplace.
  • The USSF should continue to provide support to enable three U.S. providers to enter and/or continue in the heavy lift launch market.
  • The USSF should recognize and mitigate the risks of adding to backlogs of firms that have not yet been certified for NSS launch.
  • The USSF may want to consider adding diversity of launch sites or of fuel sources as a secondary consideration in future launch acquisition source selections.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2024
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 66
  • Paperback Price: $35.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1401-X
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA2843-1
  • Document Number: RR-A2843-1

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Triezenberg, Bonnie L., Éder M. Sousa, Emily Allendorf, Hansell Perez, Jonathan Roberts, and Mack Rodgers, Assessing the Impact of U.S. Air Force National Security Space Launch Acquisition Decisions: 2023 Update, RAND Corporation, RR-A2843-1, 2024. As of October 15, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2843-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Triezenberg, Bonnie L., Éder M. Sousa, Emily Allendorf, Hansell Perez, Jonathan Roberts, and Mack Rodgers, Assessing the Impact of U.S. Air Force National Security Space Launch Acquisition Decisions: 2023 Update. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2843-1.html. Also available in print form.
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The research reported here was commissioned by the U.S. Space Force' (USSF) Program Executive Office for Assured Access to Space and conducted within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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