Historically in the Arctic, regional tensions have been resolved before turning into major crises. With the Arctic gaining more attention in recent years, are existing governance mechanisms enough to handle future diplomatic challenges?

A RAND report, Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures, suggests that there are several potential situations that could lead to conflict in the Arctic by 2030. This interactive map displays and explains some of the factors that may drive five of these scenarios.

Funding for this effort was provided by the generous contributions of the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security Advisory Board. This research was conducted within the Center for Global Risk and Security (CGRS), part of International Programs at the RAND Corporation, and within the International Security and Defense Policy (ISDP) Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Visualization series. RAND visualizations present graphical or interactive views of data and information from a published, peer-reviewed product or a body of published work.

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