Stephanie Pezard

What Is Next for the Arctic Council in the Wake of Russian Rule?

Norway recently took over chairmanship of the Arctic Council from Russia under conditions never before experienced by the organization in its 27-year history. Despite the current uncertainties, there could be ways to move past the stalemate between Russia and the other council members.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

Rethinking the EU's Role in European Collective Defence

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is forcing European nations to quickly re-evaluate how best to maintain their collective security. This makes the concept of European strategic autonomy—the EU's increased ability to operate independently and with partners of choice on defence and security matters—more relevant than ever.

Putin's Actions in Ukraine Are Spilling North

The decision of seven Arctic countries to suspend collaborative work with Russia in the Arctic is by far the most severe and consequential break in cooperation the region has ever seen. This breakdown of Arctic diplomacy could have several important impacts on the region and could potentially threaten the United States as well as its allies.

Blinken's Arctic Opportunities

Continued positive U.S. engagement in the Arctic Council could be important for balancing the influence of Russia and China, and in moving toward the Biden administration's climate change goals. Washington's new priority on climate change could be an issue that will now bind, rather than divide, Arctic states.

How Not to Compete in the Arctic

The Arctic defies simplistic views of geopolitical friends and foes. The United States and its allies do not necessarily agree on key issues, while U.S. strategic competitors might find common ground with America. The United States could fine-tune its defense policy tools in the Arctic to ensure that its actions do not hamper relations with allies and shore up the position of adversaries.

Cooperation in the Arctic Likely to Continue—For Now

Risks for serious tensions in the Arctic during the 2020s are likely to be overstated. Key players in the Arctic appear likely to continue working together to enhance the economic potential of the region and resolve conflicts before they emerge, as opportunities in the Arctic continue to grow.

Mali Is France's Afghanistan, but with a Difference

At first glance the comparison between the French military operations in Mali and America’s involvement in Afghanistan is compelling, and in some important ways, accurate. It also presents some fundamental differences that give reason for optimism in France.

What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?

The shift in U.S. climate policy away from greenhouse gas reduction is significant for the Arctic, which is experiencing global warming at an accelerated rate. And a recent executive order will pave the way for expanded oil and gas drilling. How will these changes shape the Arctic in years to come?

Will the Breakdown in U.S.-Russia Cooperation Reach the Arctic?

Over the last few decades, the U.S. and Russia have often found common ground on Arctic affairs, at least in such areas as search and rescue and environmental integrity. The Arctic has the potential to remain resistant to tensions building elsewhere.

Friends If We Must: Russia and China in the Arctic

Russia's rebalancing toward China is particularly important in the Arctic, a region in which Russia has great ambitions, but also struggles with major vulnerabilities. Russia needs China as an investor, as a technological partner, and as a key consumer of energy to support its flagging, energy-dependent economy.

Will the Arctic Remain a Warm Spot in Chilly U.S.-Russia Relations?

The United States should continue with its policy of engagement with Russia within Arctic institutions. This is the only way to keep building on a track record of successful agreements that make the Arctic safer for all.

France Is Right to Stay the Course

President Hollande announced that 30,000 Syrian refugees would be welcomed in France, honoring the commitment France made to its European partners before the Paris attacks. Altering its policy would only give the terrorists what they want.

The Front National and the Future of French Foreign Policy

France's far-right party Front National is ascendant. Its leader could be a strong contender in 2017's presidential elections. Do the Front National's current and, possibly, future successes have implications for France's partners and allies in Europe and beyond?

Help Malians Fight Back

The March 7 terrorist attack that killed five people in a nightclub in Bamako, Mali, underscores the importance of international support for the West African country, which has become another front in the struggle against Islamist radicalism.

Terror in Paris, Answers from RAND Experts

The attack that claimed the lives of 12 people in the offices of a Paris-based satirical magazine sent waves of terror and disbelief across France today. RAND experts discuss what the terrorists stand to gain from the attack, what it could mean for Muslims around the world, and more.

Declaring War on Ebola

Operation United Assistance, which includes the deployment of 3,000 U.S. military personnel to West Africa to respond to the Ebola crisis, is a welcome recognition of the range of missions the military is increasingly able to tackle, particularly in disaster-management assistance.

The Central African Republic Must Save Itself

The coincidence of the passing of Nelson Mandela last week with France's decision to intervene in the Central African Republic highlights a number of inconvenient truths about Africa and the role of the international community in its affairs.

Responding in Typhoon Haiyan's Wake

Prior responses to other recent disasters offer important lessons. Improved preparedness and efficient coordination mechanisms can help ensure that, when time is of the essence, the United States provides the most effective response.

Remembering What Mali Needs

Free and fair elections are important, to be sure, but what Mali really needs is a leader who is dedicated to democracy, unity and reform of Mali's politics and institutions, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin.

The al Qaeda Threat in North Africa

Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments.

The French Intervention in Mali Is Necessary, but Risky

No solution is likely to offer more than a short-term reprise if it is not accompanied by real progress toward resolving Mali's political crisis and strengthening the Malian state and Malian democracy, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin.

France Needs More Than Force in Mali

France should coordinate military action with efforts to engage with local factions to use as partners and proxies, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin. This is, in effect, how France conquered and secured northern Mali in the first place a century ago.

Report

Report on the Arctic Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces

This report summarizes the findings of research on U.S. and other armed forces' capabilities in the Arctic, the extent to which non-U.S. entities are operating where U.S. forces cannot, and how those operations might affect U.S. national interests.

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Overcoming Barriers to Working with Highly Capable Allies and Partners in the Air, Space, and Cyber Domains: An Exploratory Analysis

In this report, the authors consider how the United States can enhance engagement with highly capable allies and partners to improve interoperability by identifying some of the main barriers to security cooperation with these countries.

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Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System

Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.

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Expanding Army Cooperation Between the United States and France in the Indo-Pacific

This report explores the commonalities between the U.S. and French strategies in the Indo-Pacific and suggests ways that the U.S. Army can further engage France in developing mutually beneficial military and security activities in the region.

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China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security

This report assesses China's strategy and diplomacy in the Arctic and the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities there for the rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security.

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Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.

Report

Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.

Commentary

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia: A RAND Research Primer

This Perspective presents key aspects from past RAND Corporation research on the strategic competition between Russia and the United States.

Report

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: The Role of Ground Forces in Preventing Hostile Measures Below Armed Conflict in Europe

In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.

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Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: Executive Summary

In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.

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Assessing Trade-Offs in U.S. Military Intervention Decisions: Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene

In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to assess the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis to inform future debates about whether and when to intervene.

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European Strategic Autonomy in Defence: Transatlantic visions and implications for NATO, US and EU relations

This study examines the meaning of European strategic autonomy in defence and its implications for the U.S., NATO and US-EU relations using a scenario methodology and transatlantic expert consultation.

Visualization

Potential Drivers of Crises in the Arctic

Historically in the Arctic, regional tensions have been resolved before turning into major crises. With the Arctic gaining more attention in recent years, are existing governance mechanisms enough to handle future diplomatic challenges?

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Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures

Arctic states have long cooperated to avoid or mitigate conflict in the region. In this report, researchers identify potential areas of conflict and potential changes to governance mechanisms to help mitigate the identified risks.

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A Strong Ally Stretched Thin: An Overview of France's Defense Capabilities from a Burdensharing Perspective

In this report, researchers examine the role that the French military might play as a coalition partner in a hypothetical high-intensity conventional conflict in Europe.

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What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression

In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of gray zone aggression, develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone, and apply the framework to three case studies.

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Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint

Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors identify unanswered questions about such a strategy.

Report

International Postdisaster Recoveries: Lessons for Puerto Rico on Supply-Chain Management and Recovery Governance

The authors analyze supply-chain management and recovery governance in four disaster-ridden countries. Research was conducted in Puerto Rico to assess recovery after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, recommend restorative measures, and improve resilience.

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Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program

The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.

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Detecting Malign or Subversive Information Efforts over Social Media: Scalable Analytics for Early Warning

The authors examine scalable analytic means to detect malign or subversive information efforts. The report has operational relevance to the U.S. government and may also benefit other researchers and social media companies dealing with malign actors.

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Seizing the Golden Hour: Tasks, Organization, and Capabilities Required for the Earliest Phase of Stability Operations

This report analyzes the golden hour—the early phase of a postconflict stability operation—and the actions, organization, and capabilities necessary to seize it and set the conflict-affected country on a path to self-sustaining peace.

Commentary

What Provokes Putin's Russia? Deterring Without Unintended Escalation

What provokes Putin's Russia, especially in the context of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s current deterrence efforts? The authors of this Perspective identify Russia's "redlines" and analyze current U.S. and NATO deterrence efforts.

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Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition

Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's use of hostile measures is critical to containing their consequences for both target countries and Western alliances and in both the gray zone short of war and conventional warfare.

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Africa's Role in Nation-Building: An Examination of African-Led Peace Operations

What have the peacekeeping missions undertaken by African institutions in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Comoros, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin achieved?

Research Brief

How African Institutions Help Keep the Peace

African-led missions are often the peacekeepers of last resort, taking on tasks rejected by others. Two of the six African operations examined helped set a relatively peaceful trajectory. Three of the missions contributed to improving security.

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Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War

In this report, the authors examine how the United States might respond to Russian and Chinese efforts to seek strategic advantage through coercive actions in the gray zone.

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Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives

The new era of intensifying global competition is characterized by growing rivalry in the political, economic, and military spheres. This report summarizes the findings of a RAND Corporation study about the emerging era of international competition.

Testimony

The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia's and China's Evolving Role in the Region

Testimony presented before the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House of Commons on November 26, 2018.

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What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.

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Evaluation of the Strength Aptitude Test and Other Fitness Tests to Qualify Air Force Recruits for Physically Demanding Specialties

This report evaluates the Strength Aptitude Test and related fitness tests to identify strategies for ensuring airmen can meet job-related physical requirements.

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Evaluating an Operator Physical Fitness Test Prototype for Tactical Air Control Party and Air Liaison Officers: A Preliminary Analysis of Test Implementation

This report provides a preliminary evaluation effort of the implementation of the physical tests and standards being adopted by the U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Control Party and Air Liaison Officer career fields.

Commentary

The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise Organised by RAND and Hosted by NUPI

This Perspective summarises the results of a table-top exercise on factors that could upset Arctic cooperation in the 2020 decade. While this exercise confirmed the solidity of cooperation, it also identified "wild cards" that could create tensions.

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Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development

This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.

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Finding the Right Balance: Department of Defense Roles in Stabilization

This report supports Department of Defense efforts to update its stabilization guidance by assessing recent history and evaluating the roles for the U.S. military and its ability to execute them in conjunction with interagency and other key partners.

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Assessing the Value of Regionally Aligned Forces in Army Security Cooperation: An Overview

This report highlights recent RAND Arroyo Center research on the value of the Army's regionally aligned forces to U.S. security cooperation activities, particularly those conducted in Africa.

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Fit for Duty? Evaluating the Physical Fitness Requirements of Battlefield Airmen

Describes a methodology for establishing physical fitness standards for four Air Force occupational specialties, as part of a broader Air Force effort to measure the physical readiness of airmen to perform their jobs.

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Mali's Next Battle: Improving Counterterrorism Capabilities

This report examines Mali's counterterrorism requirements in light of recent evolutions in the country's security environment: The terrorist threat in Mali is growing, but Mali's military remains largely ineffective.

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European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis

This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, how European states have responded to Russia's behavior, and how European officials see the future of Russo-European relations.

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Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North

This report examines security challenges that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic, explores how these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage risks to cooperation.

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Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures

Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, Europe must reassess the regional security environment. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation.

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Defense Institution Building: An Assessment

Presents an analysis of defense institution building (DIB), recommends goals and objectives, identifies partner nation and DIB activity selection criteria, develops a strategy for coordinating activities, and recommends accountability procedures.

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The Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DMHA): An Assessment of Roles and Missions

This report examines the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance's history, activities, and roles to determine how its missions can best be performed to achieve the Department of Defense's objectives in this domain.

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Defense Institution Building in Africa: An Assessment

This report assesses U.S. efforts in defense institution building in Africa and suggests possible improvements to planning and execution.

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Achieving Peace in Northern Mali: Past Agreements, Local Conflicts, and the Prospects for a Durable Settlement

This report examines prospects for stabilization in Mali; Mali's peace settlements since the early 1990s; factors contributing to stability in Mali's neighbor, Niger; and whether Niger might offer lessons for Mali.

Draft

Security Cooperation Amidst Political Uncertainty: An Agenda for Future Research

Identifies five key issues that the U.S. government should consider before deciding whether or not to offer military training and equipment to potential partners operating amidst uncertainty and suggests avenues for future research.

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Evaluating the Impact of the Department of Defense Regional Centers for Security Studies

The five U.S. Department of Defense Regional Centers for Security Studies have been helping partner nations build strategic capacity for almost 20 years. This study analyzes the centers' impact and the ways in which they assess their programs.

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Lessons from Department of Defense Disaster Relief Efforts in the Asia-Pacific Region

This study analyzes recent humanitarian assistance/disaster response operations in Burma, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Japan, and identifies lessons that can be used to improve the Department of Defense's international disaster relief capabilities.

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Toward a Secure and Stable Mali: Approaches to Engaging Local Actors

Discusses how lasting security and stability can be established in northern Mali after the 2012 conflict there, with an emphasis on understanding the region's complex dynamics and engaging northerners in security solutions.

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Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: Local Factors in Nation-Building

This monograph analyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to nation-building. It examines how external actors and local leaders in a variety of societies modified or worked around those conditions to promote enduring peace.

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Locals Rule: Historical Lessons for Creating Local Defense Forces for Afghanistan and Beyond

Analyzes the use and management of local defense forces in eight major counterinsurgencies, from Indochina to Operation Iraqi Freedom, in order to inform U.S. and allied operations in Afghanistan as well as other current or future conflicts.

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Optimizing the Defense Language Institute English Language Center

Presents an assessment of the Defense Language Institute English Language Center (DLIELC), which trains foreign nationals in English prior to their attending U.S. military education and training courses.

Research Brief

Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World (Arabic translation)

Daunting challenges lie ahead for countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world. Researchers identify the challenges these countries face and suggest policy approaches that may help foster enduring democracies.

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Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe

Daunting challenges face countries swept up in the Arab Spring. This monograph assesses the prospects for democratization in these countries and suggests how the international community can help it succeed.

Research Brief

Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World

Daunting challenges lie ahead for countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world. Researchers identify the challenges these countries face and suggest policy approaches that may help foster enduring democracies.

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Lessons from U.S. Allies in Security Cooperation with Third Countries: The Cases of Australia, France, and the United Kingdom

Security cooperation is not unique to the United States, and when interests coincide, joint efforts and lesson-sharing are beneficial.

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Integrating the Full Range of Security Cooperation Programs into Air Force Planning: An Analytic Primer

Supplies Air Force planners with information about resources for security cooperation, the rules that govern their use, and their application methods.

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From Insurgency to Stability: Volume II: Insights from Selected Case Studies

This book examines six case studies of insurgencies from around the world to determine the key factors in the successful transition from counterinsurgency toward stability.

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From Insurgency to Stability: Volume I: Key Capabilities and Practices

This book identifies the procedures and capabilities that the U.S. Department of Defense, other agencies of the U.S.government, and its allies and partners require to support the transition from counterinsurgency to conditions of greater stability.

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Shared Modular Build of Warships: How a Shared Build Can Support Future Shipbuilding

Some recent shipbuilding programs have had multiple shipyards construct major modules of each ship. Opting for a shared-build strategy makes it necessary to monitor and manage the program to ensure that it delivers all the required outcomes.