Stephanie Pezard

@StephaniePezard on Twitter

Senior Political Scientist and Associate Research Department Director for Defense and Political Sciences (DPS)

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; M.A. in history, French Institute of Political Science, Paris (Sciences Po); M.A. in political science, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; B.A. in history, French Institute of Political Science, Paris (Sciences Po)

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Stephanie Pezard is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on European security and transatlantic relations; Arctic security; strategic competition; measures short of war; security cooperation and security force assistance; deterrence and use of force; and French defense and security policy.

Prior to joining RAND, Pezard was a researcher with the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey think-tank. She was also a visiting scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, New York and a TAPIR Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS/Johns Hopkins University and the RAND Corporation.

Pezard received her Ph.D. in international relations (political science) from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, and her M.A. in contemporary history from the French School of Political Science (Sciences-Po) in Paris.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Stephanie Pezard, The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia’s and China’s Evolving Role in the Region, RAND (CT-500), 2018

Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, Kristing Van Abel, Scott Stephenson, Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia, RAND (RR-1731-RC), 2017

Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, Alexandra Hall, The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise Organized by RAND and Hosted by NUPI, RAND (PE-268-RC), 2018

Stephanie Pezard, Andrew Radin, Thomas S. Szayna, and F. Stephen Larrabee, European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis, RAND (RR-1579-A), 2017

Michael J. Mazarr, Jonathan Blake, Abigail Casey, Tim McDonald, Stephanie Pezard, Michael Spirtas, Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives, RAND (RR-2726-AF), 2018

Michael J. Mazarr, Arthur Chan, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Alireza Nader, Stephanie Pezard, Julia A. Thompson, Elina Treyger, What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression, RAND (RR-2451-A), 2018

Steve Watts and Stephanie Pezard, "Windows of Opportunity and Tipping Points for Small-Footprint Military Interventions," Parameters, 44(1), 2014

Stephanie Pezard and Ashley Rhoades, What Provokes Putin's Russia? Deterring Without Unintended Escalation, RAND (PE-338-A), 2020

Honors & Awards

2014 Elihu Root Prize for essays on landpower (2nd place, with co-author Dr. Steve Watts), U.S. Army War College Foundation

Languages

English; French; Spanish

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: NRC Online; Voice of America

Commentary: CNN; U.S. News & World Report

Commentary

Blinken's Arctic Opportunities
Continued positive U.S. engagement in the Arctic Council could be important for balancing the influence of Russia and China, and in moving toward the Biden administration's climate change goals. Washington's new priority on climate change could be an issue that will now bind, rather than divide, Arctic states.
May 19, 2021 Defense One
How Not to Compete in the Arctic
The Arctic defies simplistic views of geopolitical friends and foes. The United States and its allies do not necessarily agree on key issues, while U.S. strategic competitors might find common ground with America. The United States could fine-tune its defense policy tools in the Arctic to ensure that its actions do not hamper relations with allies and shore up the position of adversaries.
Feb 27, 2019 War on the Rocks
Cooperation in the Arctic Likely to Continue—For Now
Risks for serious tensions in the Arctic during the 2020s are likely to be overstated. Key players in the Arctic appear likely to continue working together to enhance the economic potential of the region and resolve conflicts before they emerge, as opportunities in the Arctic continue to grow.
Jul 12, 2018 The RAND Blog
Mali Is France's Afghanistan, but with a Difference
At first glance the comparison between the French military operations in Mali and America’s involvement in Afghanistan is compelling, and in some important ways, accurate. It also presents some fundamental differences that give reason for optimism in France.
Dec 1, 2017 War on the Rocks
What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?
The shift in U.S. climate policy away from greenhouse gas reduction is significant for the Arctic, which is experiencing global warming at an accelerated rate. And a recent executive order will pave the way for expanded oil and gas drilling. How will these changes shape the Arctic in years to come?
May 25, 2017 United Press International
Will the Breakdown in U.S.-Russia Cooperation Reach the Arctic?
Over the last few decades, the U.S. and Russia have often found common ground on Arctic affairs, at least in such areas as search and rescue and environmental integrity. The Arctic has the potential to remain resistant to tensions building elsewhere.
Oct 12, 2016 Inside Sources
Friends If We Must: Russia and China in the Arctic
Russia's rebalancing toward China is particularly important in the Arctic, a region in which Russia has great ambitions, but also struggles with major vulnerabilities. Russia needs China as an investor, as a technological partner, and as a key consumer of energy to support its flagging, energy-dependent economy.
May 6, 2016 War on the Rocks
Will the Arctic Remain a Warm Spot in Chilly U.S.-Russia Relations?
The United States should continue with its policy of engagement with Russia within Arctic institutions. This is the only way to keep building on a track record of successful agreements that make the Arctic safer for all.
Apr 28, 2016 U.S. News & World Report
France Is Right to Stay the Course
President Hollande announced that 30,000 Syrian refugees would be welcomed in France, honoring the commitment France made to its European partners before the Paris attacks. Altering its policy would only give the terrorists what they want.
Nov 25, 2015 U.S. News & World Report
The Front National and the Future of French Foreign Policy
France's far-right party Front National is ascendant. Its leader could be a strong contender in 2017's presidential elections. Do the Front National's current and, possibly, future successes have implications for France's partners and allies in Europe and beyond?
Mar 25, 2015 War on the Rocks
Help Malians Fight Back
The March 7 terrorist attack that killed five people in a nightclub in Bamako, Mali, underscores the importance of international support for the West African country, which has become another front in the struggle against Islamist radicalism.
Mar 13, 2015 U.S. News & World Report
Terror in Paris, Answers from RAND Experts
The attack that claimed the lives of 12 people in the offices of a Paris-based satirical magazine sent waves of terror and disbelief across France today. RAND experts discuss what the terrorists stand to gain from the attack, what it could mean for Muslims around the world, and more.
Jan 7, 2015
Declaring War on Ebola
Operation United Assistance, which includes the deployment of 3,000 U.S. military personnel to West Africa to respond to the Ebola crisis, is a welcome recognition of the range of missions the military is increasingly able to tackle, particularly in disaster-management assistance.
Oct 10, 2014 Modern Healthcare
The Central African Republic Must Save Itself
The coincidence of the passing of Nelson Mandela last week with France's decision to intervene in the Central African Republic highlights a number of inconvenient truths about Africa and the role of the international community in its affairs.
Dec 13, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
Responding in Typhoon Haiyan's Wake
Prior responses to other recent disasters offer important lessons. Improved preparedness and efficient coordination mechanisms can help ensure that, when time is of the essence, the United States provides the most effective response.
Nov 12, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
Remembering What Mali Needs
Free and fair elections are important, to be sure, but what Mali really needs is a leader who is dedicated to democracy, unity and reform of Mali's politics and institutions, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin.
Jul 26, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
The al Qaeda Threat in North Africa
Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments.
Jan 24, 2013
The French Intervention in Mali Is Necessary, but Risky
No solution is likely to offer more than a short-term reprise if it is not accompanied by real progress toward resolving Mali's political crisis and strengthening the Malian state and Malian democracy, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin.
Jan 17, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
France Needs More Than Force in Mali
France should coordinate military action with efforts to engage with local factions to use as partners and proxies, write Stephanie Pezard and Michael Shurkin. This is, in effect, how France conquered and secured northern Mali in the first place a century ago.
Jan 17, 2013 CNN

Publications

Report
Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures
Arctic states have long cooperated to avoid or mitigate conflict in the region. In this report, researchers identify potential areas of conflict and potential changes to governance mechanisms to help mitigate the identified risks.
Jul 27, 2021
Report
A Strong Ally Stretched Thin: An Overview of France's Defense Capabilities from a Burdensharing Perspective
In this report, researchers examine the role that the French military might play as a coalition partner in a hypothetical high-intensity conventional conflict in Europe.
Jun 16, 2021
Report
What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression
In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of gray zone aggression, develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone, and apply the framework to three case studies.
Apr 19, 2021
Report
Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint
Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors identify unanswered questions about such a strategy.
Jan 21, 2021
Report
International Postdisaster Recoveries: Lessons for Puerto Rico on Supply-Chain Management and Recovery Governance
The authors analyze supply-chain management and recovery governance in four disaster-ridden countries. Research was conducted in Puerto Rico to assess recovery after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, recommend restorative measures, and improve resilience.
Sep 30, 2020
Report
Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program
The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.
May 27, 2020
Report
Detecting Malign or Subversive Information Efforts over Social Media: Scalable Analytics for Early Warning
The authors examine scalable analytic means to detect malign or subversive information efforts. The report has operational relevance to the U.S. government and may also benefit other researchers and social media companies dealing with malign actors.
Mar 16, 2020
Report
Seizing the Golden Hour: Tasks, Organization, and Capabilities Required for the Earliest Phase of Stability Operations
This report analyzes the golden hour—the early phase of a postconflict stability operation—and the actions, organization, and capabilities necessary to seize it and set the conflict-affected country on a path to self-sustaining peace.
Feb 11, 2020
Report
What Provokes Putin's Russia? Deterring Without Unintended Escalation
What provokes Putin's Russia, especially in the context of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s current deterrence efforts? The authors of this Perspective identify Russia's "redlines" and analyze current U.S. and NATO deterrence efforts.
Jan 29, 2020
Report
Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition
Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's use of hostile measures is critical to containing their consequences for both target countries and Western alliances and in both the gray zone short of war and conventional warfare.
Jan 7, 2020
Report
Africa's Role in Nation-Building: An Examination of African-Led Peace Operations
What have the peacekeeping missions undertaken by African institutions in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Comoros, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin achieved?
Jun 28, 2019
Research Brief
How African Institutions Help Keep the Peace
African-led missions are often the peacekeepers of last resort, taking on tasks rejected by others. Two of the six African operations examined helped set a relatively peaceful trajectory. Three of the missions contributed to improving security.
Jun 28, 2019
Report
Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War
In this report, the authors examine how the United States might respond to Russian and Chinese efforts to seek strategic advantage through coercive actions in the gray zone.
Jun 27, 2019
Report
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives
The new era of intensifying global competition is characterized by growing rivalry in the political, economic, and military spheres. This report summarizes the findings of a RAND Corporation study about the emerging era of international competition.
Dec 19, 2018
Testimony
The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia's and China's Evolving Role in the Region
Testimony presented before the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House of Commons on November 26, 2018.
Nov 26, 2018
Report
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.
Nov 20, 2018
Report
Evaluation of the Strength Aptitude Test and Other Fitness Tests to Qualify Air Force Recruits for Physically Demanding Specialties
This report evaluates the Strength Aptitude Test and related fitness tests to identify strategies for ensuring airmen can meet job-related physical requirements.
Aug 10, 2018
Report
Evaluating an Operator Physical Fitness Test Prototype for Tactical Air Control Party and Air Liaison Officers: A Preliminary Analysis of Test Implementation
This report provides a preliminary evaluation effort of the implementation of the physical tests and standards being adopted by the U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Control Party and Air Liaison Officer career fields.
Jul 11, 2018
Report
The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise Organised by RAND and Hosted by NUPI
This Perspective summarises the results of a table-top exercise on factors that could upset Arctic cooperation in the 2020 decade. While this exercise confirmed the solidity of cooperation, it also identified "wild cards" that could create tensions.
May 8, 2018
Report
Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development
This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.
Apr 19, 2018
Report
Finding the Right Balance: Department of Defense Roles in Stabilization
This report supports Department of Defense efforts to update its stabilization guidance by assessing recent history and evaluating the roles for the U.S. military and its ability to execute them in conjunction with interagency and other key partners.
Apr 5, 2018
Report
Assessing the Value of Regionally Aligned Forces in Army Security Cooperation: An Overview
This report highlights recent RAND Arroyo Center research on the value of the Army's regionally aligned forces to U.S. security cooperation activities, particularly those conducted in Africa.
May 10, 2017
Report
Fit for Duty? Evaluating the Physical Fitness Requirements of Battlefield Airmen
Describes a methodology for establishing physical fitness standards for four Air Force occupational specialties, as part of a broader Air Force effort to measure the physical readiness of airmen to perform their jobs.
May 9, 2017
Report
Mali's Next Battle: Improving Counterterrorism Capabilities
This report examines Mali's counterterrorism requirements in light of recent evolutions in the country's security environment: The terrorist threat in Mali is growing, but Mali's military remains largely ineffective.
Apr 20, 2017
Report
European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis
This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, how European states have responded to Russia's behavior, and how European officials see the future of Russo-European relations.
Apr 13, 2017
Report
Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North
This report examines security challenges that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic, explores how these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage risks to cooperation.
Mar 2, 2017
Report
Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures
Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, Europe must reassess the regional security environment. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation.
Jan 18, 2017
Report
Defense Institution Building: An Assessment
Presents an analysis of defense institution building (DIB), recommends goals and objectives, identifies partner nation and DIB activity selection criteria, develops a strategy for coordinating activities, and recommends accountability procedures.
Jun 7, 2016
Report
The Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DMHA): An Assessment of Roles and Missions
This report examines the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance's history, activities, and roles to determine how its missions can best be performed to achieve the Department of Defense's objectives in this domain.
May 16, 2016
Report
Defense Institution Building in Africa: An Assessment
This report assesses U.S. efforts in defense institution building in Africa and suggests possible improvements to planning and execution.
Jan 4, 2016
Report
Achieving Peace in Northern Mali: Past Agreements, Local Conflicts, and the Prospects for a Durable Settlement
This report examines prospects for stabilization in Mali; Mali's peace settlements since the early 1990s; factors contributing to stability in Mali's neighbor, Niger; and whether Niger might offer lessons for Mali.
May 1, 2015
Draft
Security Cooperation Amidst Political Uncertainty: An Agenda for Future Research
Identifies five key issues that the U.S. government should consider before deciding whether or not to offer military training and equipment to potential partners operating amidst uncertainty and suggests avenues for future research.
Aug 13, 2014
Report
Evaluating the Impact of the Department of Defense Regional Centers for Security Studies
The five U.S. Department of Defense Regional Centers for Security Studies have been helping partner nations build strategic capacity for almost 20 years. This study analyzes the centers' impact and the ways in which they assess their programs.
Apr 23, 2014
Report
Lessons from Department of Defense Disaster Relief Efforts in the Asia-Pacific Region
This study analyzes recent humanitarian assistance/disaster response operations in Burma, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Japan, and identifies lessons that can be used to improve the Department of Defense's international disaster relief capabilities.
Jul 31, 2013
Report
Toward a Secure and Stable Mali: Approaches to Engaging Local Actors
Discusses how lasting security and stability can be established in northern Mali after the 2012 conflict there, with an emphasis on understanding the region's complex dynamics and engaging northerners in security solutions.
Jul 2, 2013
Report
Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: Local Factors in Nation-Building
This monograph analyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to nation-building. It examines how external actors and local leaders in a variety of societies modified or worked around those conditions to promote enduring peace.
Feb 4, 2013
Report
Locals Rule: Historical Lessons for Creating Local Defense Forces for Afghanistan and Beyond
Analyzes the use and management of local defense forces in eight major counterinsurgencies, from Indochina to Operation Iraqi Freedom, in order to inform U.S. and allied operations in Afghanistan as well as other current or future conflicts.
Sep 18, 2012
Report
Optimizing the Defense Language Institute English Language Center
Presents an assessment of the Defense Language Institute English Language Center (DLIELC), which trains foreign nationals in English prior to their attending U.S. military education and training courses.
Aug 30, 2012
Research Brief
Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World (Arabic translation)
Daunting challenges lie ahead for countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world. Researchers identify the challenges these countries face and suggest policy approaches that may help foster enduring democracies.
Aug 20, 2012
Report
Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe
Daunting challenges face countries swept up in the Arab Spring. This monograph assesses the prospects for democratization in these countries and suggests how the international community can help it succeed.
Jul 18, 2012
Research Brief
Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World
Daunting challenges lie ahead for countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world. Researchers identify the challenges these countries face and suggest policy approaches that may help foster enduring democracies.
Jul 18, 2012
Report
Lessons from U.S. Allies in Security Cooperation with Third Countries: The Cases of Australia, France, and the United Kingdom
Security cooperation is not unique to the United States, and when interests coincide, joint efforts and lesson-sharing are beneficial.
Oct 5, 2011
Report
Integrating the Full Range of Security Cooperation Programs into Air Force Planning: An Analytic Primer
Supplies Air Force planners with information about resources for security cooperation, the rules that govern their use, and their application methods.
Sep 29, 2011
Report
From Insurgency to Stability: Volume II: Insights from Selected Case Studies
This book examines six case studies of insurgencies from around the world to determine the key factors in the successful transition from counterinsurgency toward stability.
Sep 7, 2011
Report
From Insurgency to Stability: Volume I: Key Capabilities and Practices
This book identifies the procedures and capabilities that the U.S. Department of Defense, other agencies of the U.S.government, and its allies and partners require to support the transition from counterinsurgency to conditions of greater stability.
Sep 7, 2011
Report
Shared Modular Build of Warships: How a Shared Build Can Support Future Shipbuilding
Some recent shipbuilding programs have had multiple shipyards construct major modules of each ship. Opting for a shared-build strategy makes it necessary to monitor and manage the program to ensure that it delivers all the required outcomes.
Mar 25, 2011