China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines
China hailed Philippines President Duterte's announcement in February of an end to the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months as evidence the United States was losing the great power competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. But on June 2, Duterte decided to postpone the VFA termination, breathing new life into the decades-long agreement.
Jun 18, 2020 The Diplomat
Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?
For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.
Jun 3, 2020 The Diplomat
China's Aggression Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Has Little to Do with COVID-19
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to monopolize the attention of leaders around the world, some international observers of China have concluded that Beijing is attempting to exploit the crisis for geopolitical gain. The reality is that China has been engaging in the same types of pressure tactics for years and will likely continue once the pandemic passes.
May 20, 2020 World Politics Review
Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea
Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.
May 4, 2020 The Diplomat
There's Still Life in the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he would terminate the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Washington and Manila have until August 9 to save it or negotiate a new VFA to avert any further alliance crisis.
May 4, 2020 Foreign Policy
Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China
The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
Apr 9, 2020 The Diplomat
A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us
China's armed fishing militia plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Why did Beijing create a maritime militia to begin with and how has it evolved over time? What does this history suggest about its future?
Apr 6, 2020 Maritime Issues
China Remains Unfazed by Warming U.S.-Vietnam Security Ties
In early March, the United States sent an aircraft carrier to Da Nang, Vietnam, in a display of goodwill and deepening security ties between the former adversaries. China is well aware of U.S.–Vietnam moves, and yet its public reaction to the USS Theodore Roosevelt can be summed up in one word: unfazed.
Mar 19, 2020 The Diplomat
Delayed Chuuk Secession Vote a Win for U.S. Policy in Oceania
In February, the island of Chuuk postponed a referendum vote on secession from the Federated States of Micronesia. At least for the time being, Chuuk's decision is a significant victory in the U.S. diplomatic, economic, and security competition with China in the Pacific Islands.
Mar 6, 2020 The Diplomat
Where Does China's 'One Country, Two Systems' Stand in 2020?
Hong Kong and Macau live under “one country, two systems,” and China aspires to include Taiwan in the future as well. But President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in Taiwan on January 11 resoundingly demonstrates that the arrangement is dead on arrival there.
Feb 13, 2020 The Diplomat
Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?
China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?
Jan 16, 2020 World Politics Review
How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers
Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.
Dec 31, 2019 War on the Rocks
What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020
While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.
Dec 30, 2019 South China Morning Post
What Does Beijing Want from the Pacific Islands?
China's recent activities in Oceania highlight a formidable two-pronged strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement that Washington and its allies and partners will have to vigorously compete against to maintain their preeminence in the Pacific.
Dec 9, 2019 ChinaFile
Hong Kong's Historic Election Probably Won't Reverse Current Trends
Whatever fate awaits Hong Kong, recent trends leave little reason for optimism. It is becoming an increasingly violent and polarized place that might prompt Chinese military action, and the crisis has opened a new wound in U.S.–China relations. The best hope is that the recent election reminds all sides why Hong Kong is worth saving.
Nov 27, 2019 The Hill
Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea
With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”
Nov 15, 2019 The Diplomat
How to Resolve the Hong Kong Crisis
Rebuilding trust between the residents of Hong Kong and their government will be an extremely difficult task. But with some reasonable compromises on both sides, Hong Kong has the opportunity to step back from the brink of disaster.
Oct 23, 2019 Foreign Policy
China Will Struggle to Shut Taiwan Out of the Pacific
With the decisions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati to recognize Beijing over Taipei, the list of Taiwan's official diplomatic partners has decreased to 15. But China is likely to have a difficult time eliminating Taiwan's presence diplomatically in the Pacific.
Oct 3, 2019 The Hill
A Tale of Two Cities China Ignores at Its Peril
Beijing may believe that, eventually, Taiwanese politics will turn in its favor. But it should consider experiences from the other two territories currently living under the formula—Hong Kong and Macau—to better understand why “one country, two systems” will never work in Taiwan, regardless of politics.
Sep 12, 2019 South China Morning Post
Maintaining the U.S. Edge in the Freely Associated States
In the geo-strategically vital region of the Freely Associated States (FAS), China is increasingly competing with the United States for influence. The United States and its allies and partners will need to engage not only with economic aid, but also with other issues including health, economic development, natural disasters, climate change and illegal fishing to sustain a strong partnership with the FAS.
Sep 3, 2019 East Asia Forum
Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea
What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.
Aug 19, 2019 Maritime Issues
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
Aug 12, 2019 38 North
Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail
Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.
Jul 3, 2019 The Hill
One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems
The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's “one country, two systems” policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.
Jun 21, 2019 Foreign Policy
Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight
China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.
May 15, 2019 The Diplomat
A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable
It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.
Mar 21, 2019 The National Interest
How the U.S. Is Thinking About the Quad
The United States has been consistent in discussing the security objectives it seeks to promote through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But U.S. interactions with other Quad partners have likely convinced Washington to repackage public presentation of the dialogue proceedings and manage its expectations of what the Quad can realistically achieve.
Feb 7, 2019 Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'
U.S.-China tensions are rising in the South China Sea. Washington should take solace in the fact that Vietnam's “Three Nos” policy actually offers significant breathing room for defense cooperation.
Jan 21, 2019 The Diplomat
Explaining the Defense Intelligence Agency's Critical Role in National Security
Despite its varied roles and responsibilities, the DIA can be boiled down to just two core missions: intelligence analysis and intelligence collection. Having a better understanding of these core missions could help to properly frame the agency’s value to the intelligence, military, and policymaking communities.
Jan 11, 2019 War on the Rocks
Is a Sustainable Peace Possible in the Taiwan Strait?
Between now and the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, the prospects of forging a sustainable peace between Taiwan and China are exceptionally low. Both Chinese President Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai are dug into their respective positions.
Jan 7, 2019 Foreign Policy
The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China—And Now's the Time to Do It
Even in its resurrected form, the Quad could be in danger of failing to achieve its mission. The Quad might consider getting its house in order by extending dialogue partnerships to ASEAN maritime counterclaimant states.
Oct 22, 2018 Foreign Policy
Making Sense of South Korea's Cautious Optimism on North Korea
South Korea is cautiously optimistic that North Korea will denuclearize, and it hopes that this will lead to the normalization of relations. The vast majority of U.S. observers believe that the North is bluffing. Seoul and Washington should continue to strive for transparency about the future of the peninsula.
Jul 24, 2018 Pacific Council on International Policy
Is India the Weakest Link in the Quad?
India's sustained membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue would fit with the goal of balancing against China to deter it from further militarizing the Indo-Pacific. But New Dehli may be getting cold feet.
Jul 23, 2018 Foreign Policy
Beijing's Threats Against Taiwan Are Deadly Serious
China's perception of the political status of Taiwan and how close Taipei and Washington have become has come to dominate cross-strait relations. Taiwan and the United States should prepare for greater hostility in the coming years, almost certainly lasting until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2020.
May 22, 2018 Foreign Policy
Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea
Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.
May 11, 2018 Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
Vietnam's Remarkable Month of Balancing Against China in the South China Sea
Vietnam in March very publicly engaged in a string of activities to strengthen deterrence against China in the South China Sea. But Hanoi's push to deepen external defense ties with states that can help its cause will not necessarily translate into greater risk-taking in the region.
Mar 26, 2018 The Diplomat
What Next for China-Pakistan Relations?
The recent downgrade in U.S.-Pakistan relations will present both opportunities and challenges for China. Beijing can use the recent strain to promote a new model of international development, but must be wary of becoming the sole external power responsible for maintaining stability in the region.
Feb 26, 2018 South China Morning Post
Presidential Intelligence Briefings: The Process Is Working. But Is Trump Listening?
President Trump receives intelligence briefings on a fairly regular basis and he appears engaged in discussions with senior staff and the intelligence community about content. Ideally, this process is informing his national security decisionmaking.
Feb 15, 2018 Lawfare
Why China Should (Still) Feel Good About Taiwan… but Maybe Not for Long
Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Taiwanese President Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. But because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.
Jan 24, 2018 Global Taiwan Brief
China's Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea
It's fair to question whether Beijing intends to fully enforce sanctions against the Kim Jong Un regime because such actions tend to undermine China's approach in North Korea. Beijing likely seeks to prevent the collapse of the North Korean regime to ensure that neither a spillover of refugees nor a reunified pro-U.S. Korea emerges on its doorstep.
Jan 4, 2018 The Hill
Xi's Consolidation of Power at the 19th Party Congress: Implications for PLA Aerospace Forces
Xi Jinping has emerged from the 19th Party Congress stronger than at least his past two predecessors. He solidified his grip on power and revealed significant changes to the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army.
Dec 11, 2017 Jamestown Foundation's China Brief
U.S. Striking Just the Right Balance with Vietnam in South China Sea
The Trump administration has seized upon positive momentum from the Obama administration to elevate U.S.-Vietnam defense cooperation to new heights.
Nov 23, 2017 The Diplomat
General Robert Brown on the U.S. Army's Role in Asia
Gen. Robert B. Brown, Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC), offers his perspective of key defense and security issues facing USARPAC in the Indo-Pacific region today. He discusses what the Army's role would be in any potential application of U.S. military power, as well as its peacetime role in strengthening U.S. alliances.
Oct 25, 2017 Pacific Council on International Policy
Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?
Recent bomber flights near Taiwan represent the most concerted training regimen yet aimed at improving Chinese airpower. China seeks to enhance the PLA Air Force's capabilities and signal Beijing's will to defend its territorial claims against the U.S. and its regional allies and partners, especially Taiwan and Japan.
Sep 13, 2017 War on the Rocks
China Will Regret India's Entry Into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Russia first proposed India as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization likely in part to complement bilateral economic and security engagement, but mainly to constrain China's growing influence in the organization.
Jul 24, 2017 The Diplomat
How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea
China has key pressure points at its disposal to help deter North Korea from nuclear activities. It could cut off oil supplies or limit other trade, or crack down on illicit finance networks as many of the banks laundering money for the regime are in China. It could also stop shielding Pyongyang at the UN.
Jun 20, 2017 The Cipher Brief
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.
Jun 14, 2017 Global Taiwan Brief
Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?
Prolonged tensions — even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace — are likely if China's President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen cannot reach basic agreement on Taiwan's sovereignty.
May 10, 2017 International Security
Despite Promising Signs, China's North Korea Policy Unchanged
Recent U.S. statements and public discussions on China's willingness to punish or otherwise influence North Korea in a direction favorable to U.S. interests have been optimistic. But China's continued support of the North should temper U.S. expectations.
Apr 24, 2017 The Cipher Brief
China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now
China has probably tolerated Vietnam's South China Sea construction activities because it feels confident in its military position in the region. Chinese leaders might change their stance if they believe Vietnam is trying to enlist the support of the U.S. or other partners to settle bilateral disputes.
Mar 3, 2017 Jamestown Foundation's China Brief
Why China Should Feel Good About Taiwan
Chinese leaders should seek to engage in good-faith discussions with Taiwanese counterparts. Beijing should also recognize that Tsai's tentativeness about the new U.S. administration could change if cross-Strait military tensions escalate.
Feb 22, 2017 Global Taiwan Brief
Adapting the President's Daily Brief to Trump
President-elect Trump is receiving President Obama's version of the daily briefing; it has yet to be tailored to his preferences, to which every president is entitled. The intelligence community should seek to adapt the briefing to maximize its interest and relevance to the president-elect.
Jan 6, 2017 War on the Rocks
Walking Away from One-China Policy Imperils Taiwan
The U.S. One-China policy has helped keep the peace for decades. Abandoning it now could result in stiffer Chinese resolve. Such a strategy may even backfire by triggering an otherwise avoidable crisis.
Dec 22, 2016 The National Interest
China's Actions Are Causing U.S. 'Militarization' of the Pacific
Beijing's aggression in the Asia-Pacific is threatening key U.S. allies, causing America to respond. Any change in U.S. policy must be based on changes in Chinese behavior.
Nov 3, 2016 The National Interest
Giving Intelligence Analysts Their Voices Back: The Case for Analyst Perspectives
The intelligence community should give analysts a channel to convey their individual insights. This would give policymakers well-reasoned alternative views.
Oct 20, 2016 War on the Rocks
Taiwan Should Not Worry About the Vatican
Concerns are growing in Taipei over whether the Holy See intends to switch its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Beijing could be entertaining Vatican requests not out of genuine interest in reestablishing relations, but to put Taiwan on edge.
Oct 5, 2016 PacNet, CSIS
A Bumpy Road Ahead for China-Taiwan Relations
Taiwanese President Tsai has issued numerous political overtures to Beijing, yet Chinese President Xi has demonstrated a clear reluctance to accept her as a credible partner. Instead, he has turned up the heat on Tsai in an attempt to undermine her administration.
Sep 22, 2016 Defense Dossier
Keeping Up with the Policymakers: The Unclassified Tearline
Unclassified tearlines could convey the bottom line and potential implications of a classified story in unclassified terms, while obscuring sensitive sources and methods. There are good reasons to build them into the business process and culture of intelligence agencies.
Jul 28, 2016 War on the Rocks
Xi's Purge of the Military Prepares the Chinese Army for Confrontation
Xi Jinping is relying on an unprecedented anti-corruption campaign, echoing Mao Zedong's dictum that “the party commands the gun,” and implementing a sweeping reorganization of the PLA to ensure his personal dominance over the military and to strengthen its ability to deter or win future wars.
Apr 21, 2016 Newsweek
