Derek Grossman

South Korea's Surprisingly Successful China Policy

When South Korea's president, Yoon Suk-yeol, entered office last year, the odds rose that a frostier bilateral relationship with China might take hold. But for now, at least, Yoon and his government have successfully managed China, and perhaps offered a road map for how others can too.

China's Gray-Zone Tactics Show the U.S.-Philippine Alliance Is Working

The United States should continue to offer military assistance and training to the Philippines so that Manila can increasingly counter China on its own while Washington continues to remind and warn Beijing that Article V must not be violated. This is the least risky option that also holds the greatest chance of success.

India-Canada Spat Is No-Win Situation for the U.S.

For the United States, the ongoing diplomatic row between Canada and India is very uncomfortable because Washington has no interest in choosing sides. The best-case scenario for the Biden administration is that Canada and India resolve their differences privately and expeditiously, without any need for U.S. mediation.

Can Vietnam Help America Counter China?

The United States should not count on Vietnam to help counter China. But the fact that Hanoi chose to elevate the U.S.-Vietnam partnership is a strong indication of its growing concerns about Beijing's rising assertiveness. If China becomes more aggressive, it could create new opportunities for Hanoi to strengthen the U.S. relationship.

Japan Risks Reputation in Oceania with Fukushima Discharge

Japan's decision last month to begin discharging treated radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean from its destroyed Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is fairly unpopular in Oceania, potentially damaging Tokyo's reputation in this increasingly strategic region.

With ASEAN Paralyzed, Southeast Asia Seeks New Security Ties

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations tirelessly proclaims its centrality to the region, but its inability to develop a coherent response to Chinese aggression or the crisis in Myanmar has effectively killed that claim. ASEAN members will inevitably continue to seek out alternative paths.

India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia

The jostling between India and China for influence in South Asia will likely prove crucial to the fate of U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. The good news, at least for now, is that New Delhi has been mostly successful in pushing back against Beijing's rising influence across the region.

New Zealand's New Prime Minister Is Making Nice with China

There is little question that New Zealand will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy, albeit perhaps a quietly Western-aligned one, when it comes to China. Washington should not become disillusioned with Wellington, but it should not hold high expectations about cooperation on China issues either.

India Is Becoming a Power in Southeast Asia

The moment has been long in coming, but India is turning into a strategic actor in Southeast Asia. Even though the United States and its Asian treaty allies are not involved, India's moves raise the tantalizing possibility that it will increasingly complement the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China in the coming years.

China's Bullying Proves South Korea's Yoon Is on the Right Track

An escalating war of words between Beijing and Seoul is raising pressure on South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to take a softer line with China. Instead, the Yoon administration should see Beijing's threats of punishment as vindication for further strengthening and expanding Seoul's alliance with the United States.

America Is Winning Against China in Oceania

The United States retains enormous advantages in Oceania and should not be alarmed by China's security activities in the region. Washington should nevertheless keep a close eye on Beijing's moves, particularly against small and weak nations that will struggle to counter Chinese coercive activities on their own.

Upcoming Presidential Election Will Clarify Taiwan's China Policy

Until the Taiwanese presidential election next January, China, the United States, and many other countries will be watching Taiwan with bated breath. Across the Indo-Pacific region and the world, the hope would simply be that no matter who is elected, peace and stability continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.

Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough

The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.

Why China Should Worry About Asia's Reaction to AUKUS

If most Indo-Pacific nations support AUKUS—or refuse to condemn it—then Beijing will have more geostrategic and military implications to worry about than AUKUS itself. As long as AUKUS continues to assuage nuclear-proliferation concerns, then the region will view it as a legitimate counter to Chinese military excesses.

Juggled Plan for McCarthy-Tsai Meeting Does Taiwan No Favors

Instead of traveling to Taiwan like Nancy Pelosi did, U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is abiding by the advice of President Tsai Ing-wen to skip the trip. They will meet in California. This could be seen as a major victory for China's aggressive stance toward U.S. ties with the island and could embolden Beijing.

India Can Bridge the U.S.-Russia Divide over Ukraine

No country is as well positioned as India to mediate between Russia and the United States, and bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. Even limited success in ending the war will bolster India's credentials as an emerging great power, capable of accomplishing remarkable things that others cannot.

The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia

The election of the Philippines' new president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in May 2022 has proven exceptionally significant for Washington's security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Marcos has prioritized the maintenance of healthy ties to the United States, marking a sharp departure from the foreign policy of his predecessor.

Preparing for the Next India-China Border Crisis

Mounting tensions between India and China due to Chinese encroachment on their disputed border affect the United States and its Indo-Pacific strategy. Washington should assist New Delhi in deterring further Chinese attempts to nibble away at Indian territory and be ready to respond quickly in case events spiral out of control.

U.S. Cannot Count on South Korea's Yoon to Line Up Against China

South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol wants South Korea to become a global pivotal state that plays a valuable role in the international community. Turning this into reality will inevitably mean striking a balance between the United States and China.

Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

New Zealand Is Done with Speaking Softly to China

In three short years, New Zealand has gone from saying next to nothing about China to saying quite a lot. What has prompted New Zealand to suddenly take a firmer stand on China?

India Upholds the Rules-Based Liberal International Order—But in Its Own Way

Contrary to continued U.S. questions about the degree of New Delhi's commitment to the liberal international order, India has shown that it is committed in its own, sometimes limited way. Of course, securing Indian national interests will always be paramount. U.S. policymakers might recognize that any additional pressure is likely to be counterproductive.

Xi Likely Won't Be Attacking Taiwan Anytime Soon

Rather than start a war, Xi Jinping is more likely to intensify China's use of coercive measures against Taiwan, including diplomatic, economic, and military pressure coupled with cyber and psychological operations. If coercion fails, Beijing might turn to force as a last resort, but this still seems unlikely given the many complicating factors.

America's Pacific Island Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The United States hosted its first Pacific Islands Summit in September. Pacific Island leaders and observers from over a dozen states participated in the event and pledged to jointly tackle various challenges. But this historic summit was hardly an absolute success, and should be put within its proper context.

India-Pakistan Ties Are Warming—but Don't Get Excited Just Yet

While the warming trend in India-Pakistan ties is encouraging, it makes sense to keep a healthy check on expectations. Events could easily derail progress. Ultimately, it will take trust for India and Pakistan to normalize their relationship, and developing trust takes time.

Indonesia Is Looking for More Than Security Support from the United States

Rather than remain aloof from the new great power competition between the United States and China, Indonesia has quietly, albeit determinedly, favored relations with Washington, though in reality, it does not have much of a choice.

The Indo-Pacific Mostly Backs 'One China,' but Taiwan Gets Some Love, Too

Almost the entire Indo-Pacific region backs China over Taiwan. But U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August trip to Taiwan made it clear that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan's cause, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island. This suggests that Beijing's assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.

China's Pacific Push Is Backfiring

Beijing has had only limited success in spreading its influence in the Pacific, with the notable exceptions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati. To be sure, other victories should be expected to follow. The overall picture, however, is far more challenging for China.

Yoon Suk-yeol Is Biden's Perfect South Korea Partner

Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea's conservative new president, has shown that he is in lockstep with U.S. President Joe Biden on foreign policy. During Biden's Indo-Pacific trip in May, their conversations in the security domain suggest Yoon's overlapping tenure with Biden heralds a golden era in the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

Modi's Multipolar Moment Has Arrived

Russia's war in Ukraine has benefited India as great powers are competing more vigorously for New Delhi's affection, particularly the United States and China. India has also prevented its Russia policy from spoiling partnerships with key European and Indo-Pacific partners. These trends, if sustained, will contribute to India's rise to great-power status and in turn, shift the global system toward even greater multipolarity.

Ukraine War Is Motivating Taiwan to Better Secure Its Own Future

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is probably motivating Taiwan to better secure its own future versus China. But many of the challenges currently facing Taiwan, such as shortcomings in reservist training or lingering confusion over its military strategy, are difficult to fix, assuming they are even fixable.

New Philippine President Marcos Jr. Likely Won't Repeat Duterte's Foreign Policy Mistakes

The May 2022 election of Bongbong Marcos as the next president of the Philippines will hold significant implications for Manila's foreign policy. He is likely to be influenced by the policies of both his father, former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, yielding a new government interested in engaging China while keeping the United States close by.

Why Most of the Indo-Pacific Tiptoes Around Russia

Since the start of Russia's increasingly brutal war in Ukraine, the West has ramped up pressure on the rest of the world to condemn Moscow's belligerence and join sanctions against Russia and its regime. In the vast Indo-Pacific region, however, the West's message has fallen flat.

Taiwan Isn't the Ukraine of the Indo-Pacific. Try Vietnam Instead

Russia's war in Eastern Europe has prompted Indo-Pacific security watchers to draw comparisons between Ukraine's plight and that of Taiwan with regard to China. But the more-applicable analogy is a different Indo-Pacific country: Vietnam.

Russia Looks Less and Less Like India's Friend

India has strong ties with Russia dating back to the Cold War. But the geostrategic winds have shifted significantly in recent years, suggesting that India might want to reconsider the benefits of close Russia ties.

Why China Is Intensifying Its Military Flights Against Taiwan

On January 23, China repeated its familiar pattern of sending warplanes into Taiwan's airspace. This activity, which has continued in February, rarely has a clear single driver. Instead, there are several factors that should always be considered.

Modi's Foreign-Policy Juggling Act

India lives in a difficult neighborhood, and there are no easy, straightforward solutions. But thus far—and especially under Modi—India has managed its foreign-policy challenges with remarkable effectiveness. With new partners and by making some tough decisions, there is a very good chance that it will continue to do so.

Could the U.S. Play Offense in China's Back Yard?

Relations with Cambodia and Laos have fallen victim to the U.S. administration's foreign policy priority of shared values over shared interests. This approach has failed to make headway in Cambodia and Laos, isolates the United States in a region where few countries are true democracies, and unnecessarily cedes ground to Beijing.

Taiwan Would Be Better Off Alone

Relinquishing diplomatic partners could free Taiwan from an unwinnable competition with China and refocus attention on what really matters: reducing China's coercive power by strengthening relationships with powers that can truly help.

Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Still Has Much to Prove

As the Biden administration's first year comes to a close, how is the United States faring in Southeast Asia? Washington got a lot right, but it could do better to optimize competition against China and work on a more sensitive understanding of the delicate and at times precarious position Southeast Asian states are in.

Taiwan Is Safe Until at Least 2027, but with One Big Caveat

Although Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly seeks to bring Taiwan to heel, and by force if necessary, he also continues to promote “peaceful reunification” as Beijing's preferred means. Xi likely would have toughened up his language by now if he thought war was a real possibility.

Duterte's Dalliance with China Is Over

When Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte took office in 2016, he pledged to shift his country's foreign policy away from the United States in favor of China and Russia. His China-friendly policy is now effectively over, and he's doing his best to align the Philippines with the United States once more.

Biden Administration Shows Unwavering Support for Taiwan

Ten months into the Biden administration, it is abundantly clear that the United States will continue to strengthen ties with Taiwan and defend the island if ever attacked by China. Through both word and deed, the United States has continued to demonstrate that Taipei should have no worries about Washington's commitment to the island.

China and Pakistan See Eye to Eye on the Taliban—Almost

Beijing and Islamabad share a long history of cooperation and have much in common on Afghanistan. Both are poised to benefit strategically from the Taliban's success. But the Taliban's resurrection almost certainly will add some stress to an otherwise positive and productive bilateral partnership.

Chinese Recognition of the Taliban Is All but Inevitable

China is likely to recognize and legitimize the new leadership in Afghanistan within the coming weeks or months. Even if China has real concerns about the Taliban's willingness to keep its promises, the potential benefits are simply too great for Beijing to ignore.

Biden's Indo-Pacific Policy Blueprint Emerges

The Biden administration has yet to detail its goals in the Indo-Pacific region and how it plans to achieve them. But following recent virtual engagements and U.S. visits to the region, at least three key points have crystallized.

Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers

The sudden end to America's longest war came as the Taliban rolled into Kabul and the government collapsed. RAND researchers share their thoughts on how to help displaced Afghans, whether the country could again become a safe haven for terrorists, and the geopolitical implications of the collapse.

China and the Taliban Begin Their Romance

China is set to benefit significantly from a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. It's worth following this dynamic closely in the coming weeks and months.

Biden's Troubled Southeast Asia Policy Needs a Reboot

Nearly six months into Joe Biden's presidency, it is now possible to begin assessing the effectiveness of some of his administration's policies. When it comes to Southeast Asia, the Biden administration has thus far fallen short, but the future looks relatively bright with certain caveats.

Indonesia Is Quietly Warming Up to China

Improving China-Indonesia relations could have profound geostrategic significance for the United States. Washington may want to focus on assistance that would benefit Indonesia itself, not just the United States in its competition with China.

India's Brittle Confidence in America

Democracies are supposed to get along. But that has not always been the case for the United States and India. From New Delhi's perspective, there are significant irritants in U.S.-India ties. Any of these could derail an otherwise positive relationship.

China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte's Best Efforts

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has time and again underscored his anti-U.S. and pro-Chinese orientation. Duterte now recognizes, in spite of his continued rhetoric to the contrary, that China is no friend.

Biden Should Consider Downsides of Stressing National Values in Indo-Pacific

The Biden administration has argued that the United States must strengthen its Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships to compete more successfully with China. Will Washington prioritize national interests or national values?

Vietnam Must Be Pleased with the Biden Administration—for the Most Part

After four years of steadily strengthening U.S.-Vietnam security relations under the Trump administration, the presidential transition to Joe Biden naturally carries some measure of uncertainty for Hanoi. Early signs from the Biden administration, however, are extremely positive for Vietnam.

Biden's China Reset Is Already on the Ropes

The prospects of a U.S.-China reset are rapidly fading, and both sides bear some measure of responsibility. Beijing has refused to change its own assertive behavior. And all signs thus far point to a Biden administration that plans to take an exceptionally hard line against China.

Biden Doubles Down on Trump's Taiwan Policy, but Will It Last?

It's an open secret that Taiwan welcomed the Trump administration's policy to significantly strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, and it was jittery about the transition to the Biden administration. Early indications, however, are that the Biden team appears poised to opt for a stronger relationship with Taiwan as set forth under the Trump administration.

How U.S.-Vietnam Ties Might Go Off the Rails

Although there are valid reasons to question the trajectory of U.S.-Vietnam relations in the coming years, the overwhelming momentum is positive and is likely to stay that way. Any frictions that arise will probably be handled diplomatically to avoid greater damage to the relationship. But of course, nothing is guaranteed.

Biden Will Inherit Healthy Indo-Pacific Alliances

Certainly there is much work ahead as the United States embarks on the next chapter of competition against China throughout the Indo-Pacific. But U.S. alliances and partnerships are in good shape—the result of a growing Indo-Pacific consensus on the existential economic and security threat China poses.

What Does Vietnam Want from the United States in the South China Sea?

Over the last few years, tensions between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea have remained high. While the Biden administration is likely to continue positive momentum in bilateral ties, it is less clear what specifically Hanoi seeks from Washington to help it effectively deter Beijing.

China Isn't Backing Down in South Asia

Much to India's frustration, China's influence is on the rise across South Asia. India will probably have to work overtime, and in concert with like-minded partners such as Australia, Japan, and the United States to complicate and rein in China's successes in the region.

Why Taiwan Can Feel at Ease with Joe Biden as U.S. President

Joe Biden's win in the U.S. presidential election is causing thinly veiled heartburn in Taipei. But concerns that the incoming Biden administration might rethink Taiwan policy in favor of better relations with China are probably misguided.

The Philippines Is Sticking Right by America's Side

The election of Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 raised concerns around Washington that he would undermine and perhaps even undo the U.S.-Philippines alliance in favor of closer ties with China. More than four years on, however, Manila continues to prioritize Washington over Beijing.

Biden Administration Could Benefit from Keeping an Indo-Pacific Focus

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden may be poised to reverse many of President Donald Trump's policies, but one that is very likely to remain is the Indo-Pacific strategy. Any changes will probably be stylistic rather than substantive.

U.S. Election Won't Dramatically Change the Indo-Pacific Strategy

No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election, the outcome is unlikely to impact the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy in any significant way. Bipartisan agreement in Washington to counter and compete with China makes clear that the United States will continue to push back against Beijing.

Vietnam Is Losing Its Best Friends to China

The wide range of Chinese activities with Cambodia and Laos must be jarring for Vietnamese leaders. China has eclipsed Vietnam in Indochina, and that means that Hanoi's angst will only continue to rise in its own backyard. Vietnam will likely have to find alternative means of engaging Cambodia and Laos to combat Chinese influence in this critical region in the years to come.

PIF Fragmentation May Alter U.S.-China Competition in the Pacific

The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) may be on the verge of fragmentation, and if it happens, the consequences for U.S.-China geostrategic competition could be significant. A divided PIF would likely present several opportunities and challenges for China and the United States as their competition ramps up in Oceania.

China's Friends Are Few and Unreliable

Amid escalating competition, China and the United States are actively shoring up their diplomatic relationships in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Compared to the United States, China's friends are certainly not as numerous, nor are they as reliable. That is a major challenge for Beijing.

Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem

The 1992 Consensus is an agreement between the Kuomintang opposition party in Taiwan and mainland Chinese authorities on the existence of only “One China.” Maintaining the 1992 Consensus as the cornerstone of the Kuomintang's platform has not helped the party's cause, and more importantly, has probably done the opposite.

America's Indo-Pacific Vision Is Becoming a Reality—Because of China

The Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy has received a significant boost in recent months toward achieving its goal of keeping the region “free and open” from Chinese coercion. Ironically, China itself has been doing the boosting.

America Is Betting Big on the Second Island Chain

The United States has deep and abiding interests in the Second Island Chain. But China's growing influence in the region could complicate U.S. plans. Washington will almost certainly seek to strengthen security cooperation with Pacific Island states in the Second Island Chain and bolster defensive positions on U.S. territories in the region.

Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons

HHS Secretary Alex Azar's August 9th visit to Taiwan should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening. But Taiwan should view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. U.S. objectives with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.

What Does Vietnam Think About America's Indo-Pacific Strategy?

The South China Sea is where the rubber meets the road for U.S.-Vietnam security ties, and in this regard, Hanoi has gone as far as it is comfortable. Washington should expect Vietnam to continue seeking balance between China, which has economic and military superiority over it, and the United States, which can help offset Chinese power.

The Quad Is Poised to Become Openly Anti-China Soon

What has been striking about the Quad thus far is that it has resisted openly identifying China as the primary target it seeks to rein in. If the Quad is to be sustained, then it will likely have to come to grips with a forward-leaning approach to opposing Chinese activities.

China Refuses to Quit on the Philippines

When the Filipino people elected Rodrigo Duterte to become their next president in May 2016, China saw a distinct opportunity to pull the longtime U.S. ally away from Washington and into Beijing's strategic orbit. But it remains to be seen how the long-term geopolitical competition between the United States and China over the Philippines will play out.

Chinese Border Aggression Against India Likely Unrelated to Pandemic

Some argue that Beijing's aggression at the China-India border is part of an attempt to exploit the pandemic. But it may simply be a continuation of China's threatening behavior in the Indo-Pacific, which began before COVID-19 started to spread.

China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines

China hailed Philippines President Duterte's announcement in February of an end to the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months as evidence the United States was losing the great power competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. But on June 2, Duterte decided to postpone the VFA termination, breathing new life into the decades-long agreement.

Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?

For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.

China's Aggression Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic Has Little to Do with COVID-19

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to monopolize the attention of leaders around the world, some international observers of China have concluded that Beijing is attempting to exploit the crisis for geopolitical gain. The reality is that China has been engaging in the same types of pressure tactics for years and will likely continue once the pandemic passes.

Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea

Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.

There's Still Life in the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he would terminate the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Washington and Manila have until August 9 to save it or negotiate a new VFA to avert any further alliance crisis.

Don't Get Too Excited, 'Quad Plus' Meetings Won't Cover China

The “Quad” countries met with several non-Quad countries to help each other amid the coronavirus pandemic. For all the good that can come of these countries working together, the Quad Plus, if sustained, may eventually jeopardize the Quad's primary mission: to counter China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us

China's armed fishing militia plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Why did Beijing create a maritime militia to begin with and how has it evolved over time? What does this history suggest about its future?

China Remains Unfazed by Warming U.S.-Vietnam Security Ties

In early March, the United States sent an aircraft carrier to Da Nang, Vietnam, in a display of goodwill and deepening security ties between the former adversaries. China is well aware of U.S.–Vietnam moves, and yet its public reaction to the USS Theodore Roosevelt can be summed up in one word: unfazed.

Delayed Chuuk Secession Vote a Win for U.S. Policy in Oceania

In February, the island of Chuuk postponed a referendum vote on secession from the Federated States of Micronesia. At least for the time being, Chuuk's decision is a significant victory in the U.S. diplomatic, economic, and security competition with China in the Pacific Islands.

Where Does China's 'One Country, Two Systems' Stand in 2020?

Hong Kong and Macau live under “one country, two systems,” and China aspires to include Taiwan in the future as well. But President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in Taiwan on January 11 resoundingly demonstrates that the arrangement is dead on arrival there.

Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?

China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?

How to Read Vietnam’s Latest Defense White Paper: A Message to Great Powers

Vietnam's latest defense white paper is full of warnings to China and opportunities for the United States. Washington needs to reassure Vietnam that the United States is committed to the relationship by deepening existing military exchanges, which will give Vietnam greater confidence to stand up to China when the time comes.

What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020

While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.

What Does Beijing Want from the Pacific Islands?

China's recent activities in Oceania highlight a formidable two-pronged strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement that Washington and its allies and partners will have to vigorously compete against to maintain their preeminence in the Pacific.

Hong Kong's Historic Election Probably Won't Reverse Current Trends

Whatever fate awaits Hong Kong, recent trends leave little reason for optimism. It is becoming an increasingly violent and polarized place that might prompt Chinese military action, and the crisis has opened a new wound in U.S.–China relations. The best hope is that the recent election reminds all sides why Hong Kong is worth saving.

Vietnam Needs to 'Struggle' More in the South China Sea

With the standoff between China and Vietnam at the disputed Vanguard Bank ended, it makes sense to take stock of how Hanoi's security strategy fared in countering Chinese coercion. It may be time for Vietnam to consider a careful recalibration to allow for more “struggle” and less “cooperation.”

How to Resolve the Hong Kong Crisis

Rebuilding trust between the residents of Hong Kong and their government will be an extremely difficult task. But with some reasonable compromises on both sides, Hong Kong has the opportunity to step back from the brink of disaster.

China Will Struggle to Shut Taiwan Out of the Pacific

With the decisions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati to recognize Beijing over Taipei, the list of Taiwan's official diplomatic partners has decreased to 15. But China is likely to have a difficult time eliminating Taiwan's presence diplomatically in the Pacific.

A Tale of Two Cities China Ignores at Its Peril

Beijing may believe that, eventually, Taiwanese politics will turn in its favor. But it should consider experiences from the other two territories currently living under the formula—Hong Kong and Macau—to better understand why “one country, two systems” will never work in Taiwan, regardless of politics.

Maintaining the U.S. Edge in the Freely Associated States

In the geo-strategically vital region of the Freely Associated States (FAS), China is increasingly competing with the United States for influence. The United States and its allies and partners will need to engage not only with economic aid, but also with other issues including health, economic development, natural disasters, climate change and illegal fishing to sustain a strong partnership with the FAS.

Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea

What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.

Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea

President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.

Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail

Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.

One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems

The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's “one country, two systems” policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.

Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight

China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.

A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable

It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.

How the U.S. Is Thinking About the Quad

The United States has been consistent in discussing the security objectives it seeks to promote through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. But U.S. interactions with other Quad partners have likely convinced Washington to repackage public presentation of the dialogue proceedings and manage its expectations of what the Quad can realistically achieve.

Vietnam's Defense Policy of 'No' Quietly Saves Room for 'Yes'

U.S.-China tensions are rising in the South China Sea. Washington should take solace in the fact that Vietnam's “Three Nos” policy actually offers significant breathing room for defense cooperation.

Explaining the Defense Intelligence Agency's Critical Role in National Security

Despite its varied roles and responsibilities, the DIA can be boiled down to just two core missions: intelligence analysis and intelligence collection. Having a better understanding of these core missions could help to properly frame the agency’s value to the intelligence, military, and policymaking communities.

Is a Sustainable Peace Possible in the Taiwan Strait?

Between now and the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, the prospects of forging a sustainable peace between Taiwan and China are exceptionally low. Both Chinese President Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai are dug into their respective positions.

The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China—and Now's the Time to Do It

Even in its resurrected form, the Quad could be in danger of failing to achieve its mission. The Quad might consider getting its house in order by extending dialogue partnerships to ASEAN maritime counterclaimant states.

Making Sense of South Korea's Cautious Optimism on North Korea

South Korea is cautiously optimistic that North Korea will denuclearize, and it hopes that this will lead to the normalization of relations. The vast majority of U.S. observers believe that the North is bluffing. Seoul and Washington should continue to strive for transparency about the future of the peninsula.

Is India the Weakest Link in the Quad?

India's sustained membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue would fit with the goal of balancing against China to deter it from further militarizing the Indo-Pacific. But New Dehli may be getting cold feet.

Beijing's Threats Against Taiwan Are Deadly Serious

China's perception of the political status of Taiwan and how close Taipei and Washington have become has come to dominate cross-strait relations. Taiwan and the United States should prepare for greater hostility in the coming years, almost certainly lasting until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2020.

Deciphering Vietnam's Evolving Military Doctrine in the South China Sea

Vietnam has sought to balance China's expanding presence in the South China Sea through diplomacy and military modernization. The Vietnam People's Army has acquired many useful weapons, but unfamiliarity with combat in the sea and air will test its evolving military doctrine.

Vietnam's Remarkable Month of Balancing Against China in the South China Sea

Vietnam in March very publicly engaged in a string of activities to strengthen deterrence against China in the South China Sea. But Hanoi's push to deepen external defense ties with states that can help its cause will not necessarily translate into greater risk-taking in the region.

What Next for China-Pakistan Relations?

The recent downgrade in U.S.-Pakistan relations will present both opportunities and challenges for China. Beijing can use the recent strain to promote a new model of international development, but must be wary of becoming the sole external power responsible for maintaining stability in the region.

Presidential Intelligence Briefings: The Process Is Working. But Is Trump Listening?

President Trump receives intelligence briefings on a fairly regular basis and he appears engaged in discussions with senior staff and the intelligence community about content. Ideally, this process is informing his national security decisionmaking.

Why China Should (Still) Feel Good About Taiwan… but Maybe Not for Long

Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Taiwanese President Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. But because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.

China's Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea

It's fair to question whether Beijing intends to fully enforce sanctions against the Kim Jong Un regime because such actions tend to undermine China's approach in North Korea. Beijing likely seeks to prevent the collapse of the North Korean regime to ensure that neither a spillover of refugees nor a reunified pro-U.S. Korea emerges on its doorstep.

Xi's Consolidation of Power at the 19th Party Congress: Implications for PLA Aerospace Forces

Xi Jinping has emerged from the 19th Party Congress stronger than at least his past two predecessors. He solidified his grip on power and revealed significant changes to the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army.

U.S. Striking Just the Right Balance with Vietnam in South China Sea

The Trump administration has seized upon positive momentum from the Obama administration to elevate U.S.-Vietnam defense cooperation to new heights.

General Robert Brown on the U.S. Army's Role in Asia

Gen. Robert B. Brown, Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC), offers his perspective of key defense and security issues facing USARPAC in the Indo-Pacific region today. He discusses what the Army's role would be in any potential application of U.S. military power, as well as its peacetime role in strengthening U.S. alliances.

Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?

Recent bomber flights near Taiwan represent the most concerted training regimen yet aimed at improving Chinese airpower. China seeks to enhance the PLA Air Force's capabilities and signal Beijing's will to defend its territorial claims against the U.S. and its regional allies and partners, especially Taiwan and Japan.

China Will Regret India's Entry Into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Russia first proposed India as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization likely in part to complement bilateral economic and security engagement, but mainly to constrain China's growing influence in the organization.

How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea

China has key pressure points at its disposal to help deter North Korea from nuclear activities. It could cut off oil supplies or limit other trade, or crack down on illicit finance networks as many of the banks laundering money for the regime are in China. It could also stop shielding Pyongyang at the UN.

Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context

Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.

Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?

Prolonged tensions — even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace — are likely if China's President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen cannot reach basic agreement on Taiwan's sovereignty.

Despite Promising Signs, China's North Korea Policy Unchanged

Recent U.S. statements and public discussions on China's willingness to punish or otherwise influence North Korea in a direction favorable to U.S. interests have been optimistic. But China's continued support of the North should temper U.S. expectations.

China Tolerating Vietnam's South China Sea Activities, for Now

China has probably tolerated Vietnam's South China Sea construction activities because it feels confident in its military position in the region. Chinese leaders might change their stance if they believe Vietnam is trying to enlist the support of the U.S. or other partners to settle bilateral disputes.

Why China Should Feel Good About Taiwan

Chinese leaders should seek to engage in good-faith discussions with Taiwanese counterparts. Beijing should also recognize that Tsai's tentativeness about the new U.S. administration could change if cross-Strait military tensions escalate.

Adapting the President's Daily Brief to Trump

President-elect Trump is receiving President Obama's version of the daily briefing; it has yet to be tailored to his preferences, to which every president is entitled. The intelligence community should seek to adapt the briefing to maximize its interest and relevance to the president-elect.

Walking Away from One-China Policy Imperils Taiwan

The U.S. One-China policy has helped keep the peace for decades. Abandoning it now could result in stiffer Chinese resolve. Such a strategy may even backfire by triggering an otherwise avoidable crisis.

China's Actions Are Causing U.S. 'Militarization' of the Pacific

Beijing's aggression in the Asia-Pacific is threatening key U.S. allies, causing America to respond. Any change in U.S. policy must be based on changes in Chinese behavior.

Giving Intelligence Analysts Their Voices Back: The Case for Analyst Perspectives

The intelligence community should give analysts a channel to convey their individual insights. This would give policymakers well-reasoned alternative views.

Taiwan Should Not Worry About the Vatican

Concerns are growing in Taipei over whether the Holy See intends to switch its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Beijing could be entertaining Vatican requests not out of genuine interest in reestablishing relations, but to put Taiwan on edge.

A Bumpy Road Ahead for China-Taiwan Relations

Taiwanese President Tsai has issued numerous political overtures to Beijing, yet Chinese President Xi has demonstrated a clear reluctance to accept her as a credible partner. Instead, he has turned up the heat on Tsai in an attempt to undermine her administration.

Keeping Up with the Policymakers: The Unclassified Tearline

Unclassified tearlines could convey the bottom line and potential implications of a classified story in unclassified terms, while obscuring sensitive sources and methods. There are good reasons to build them into the business process and culture of intelligence agencies.

Xi's Purge of the Military Prepares the Chinese Army for Confrontation

Xi Jinping is relying on an unprecedented anti-corruption campaign, echoing Mao Zedong's dictum that “the party commands the gun,” and implementing a sweeping reorganization of the PLA to ensure his personal dominance over the military and to strengthen its ability to deter or win future wars.

Report

Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility

This report presents an analysis of how U.S. competitors and adversaries — China, Russia, and Iran — could attempt to exploit climate-related conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in future decades.

Research Brief

Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

As climate change increasingly disrupts human and natural systems, this report presents analysis and characterizes how climate hazards could affect the physical and security environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility.

Report

Creating Selective Overmatch: An Approach to Developing Cyberspace Options to Sustain U.S. Primacy Against Revisionist Powers

The authors apply the concept of selective overmatch to reevaluate current U.S. cyber operations in light of competition and possible conflict with China and show how this framework can provide a roadmap for U.S. Cyber Command’s future operations.

Testimony

Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States: Addendum

Document submitted June 5, 2023, as an addendum to testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.

Testimony

Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States

Testimony presented before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.

Report

U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views

This report, one of two, focuses on whether partners and allies have the willingness to support U.S. operations in a major Indo-Pacific conflict. The companion report focuses on technical and operational issues.

Journal Article

India-China Border Tensions and U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific

India-China border intrusions and clashes have become more frequent and threaten to lead to all-out conflict between the two Asian giants.

Report

Gaining Victory in Systems Warfare: China's Perspective on the U.S.-China Military Balance

The authors provide a detailed analysis of the factors and components associated with People's Republic of China leaders' assessments of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's strength and the implications for the U.S.-China military balance.

Report

New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts

This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.

Report

The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations

Using a framework of 17 indicators, the authors assess and rank potential host nations for Chinese overseas basing and access. They recommend steps to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.

Testimony

China's Gambit in the Pacific: Implications for the United States and Its Allies and Partners

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on August 3, 2022.

Journal Article

Why Vietnam Might Want to Reconsider Its Russia Policy

Russia's war in Ukraine has put many countries in a tough spot, pitting them between maintaining healthy ties with Moscow and supporting Western punitive measures. One such nation is Vietnam.

Report

Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.

Report

Tailoring Deterrence for China in Space

The authors examine the application of classical deterrence theory to the space domain and argue that to build a tailored deterrence strategy for China in space, China's own objectives should be considered.

Report

China's Quest for Global Primacy: An Analysis of Chinese International and Defense Strategies to Outcompete the United States

This research explores possible strategies that China might employ to outcompete the United States. The authors of this report aim to support U.S. planning, educate readers about Chinese strategy, and spur discussion on U.S.-China competition.

Report

Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era: An Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies

The authors examine how China's approach to deterrence signalling is evolving along with its expanding objectives, growing military capabilities, and the availability of new communication channels—and how regional countries should respond.

Journal Article

Tracking Chinese Perceptions of Vietnam's Relations with China and the United States

This article sheds light on trends in Chinese assessments of U.S.-Vietnam relations and security cooperation to discern patterns in the security dynamics between the three countries.

Report

Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Study Overview and Conclusions

The authors define U.S.-China competition for influence and assess competition in nine countries across the Indo-Pacific to gain insight into how the United States could work more effectively with allies and partners in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Research Brief

U.S. Versus Chinese Powers of Persuasion: Does the United States or China Have More Influence in the Indo-Pacific Region?

This brief assesses U.S.-China competition for influence in countries across the Indo-Pacific.

Report

Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Vietnam

This report explores Vietnam's perspective on rising U.S.-China competition by evaluating how Vietnam is responding to U.S. and Chinese influence in diplomatic and political, economic, and security and military domains.

Report

Chinese Views of Big Data Analytics

The authors of this report use Chinese primary-source materials to provide a preliminary analysis of China's expectations for the use of big data analytics and the country's plans and strategies for development of big data analytic capabilities.

Report

North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

The authors examine (1) experiences of different communist regimes to forecast North Korean adoption of a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Peninsula; and (3) why North Korea might use nuclear weapons.

Journal Article

What China Wants in South Asia

This brief outlines the issues facing different South Asian countries with respect to their relationships with China.

Report

Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Ethical Concerns in an Uncertain World

The authors of this report examine military applications of artificial intelligence (AI); compare development efforts in the United States, China, and Russia; and consider the ethical implications of employing military AI in war and peace.

Journal Article

Military Build-Up in the South China Sea

This book chapter explores the very latest developments in the South China Sea maritime dispute.

Journal Article

Minding the Gaps: US Military Strategy Toward China

The U.S. national security community continues to consider the proper military response to China's ongoing military modernization efforts, but many aspects of the debate remain unresolved. If analysts writing on US military strategy toward China want to improve the public debate, these analytical gaps must be filled.

Report

The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation: Deepening Defense Ties Among U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

Since the year 2000, U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific have been deepening their defense ties. The authors explore the dimensions, causes, and consequences for the U.S. and the region of this trend toward greater defense cooperation.

Report

America's Pacific Island Allies: The Freely Associated States and Chinese Influence

The Freely Associated States -- the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau -- have been the subject of increasing Chinese influence. The authors examine the implications of these activities for defense and foreign policy interests of the United States.

Testimony

Envisioning a "World-Class" PLA: Implications for the United States and the Indo-Pacific

Testimony submitted on July 1, 2019, to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission as a statement for the record for the hearing on June 20, 2019.

Report

China's Long-Range Bomber Flights: Drivers and Implications

This report examines the key drivers behind China's strategic bomber flights throughout the Asia-Pacific region, and report recommends specific responses for consideration by the U.S. Air Force, U.S. policymakers, and allies and partners.

Journal Article

Can Vietnam's Military Stand Up to China in the South China Sea?

This article examines Vietnam's warfighting capabilities for defending its disputed claims with China in the South China Sea.

Commentary

Conflict with China Revisited: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence

Although armed conflict between the United States and China is not likely, the possibility is real enough to require prudent policies and effective deterrent measures.

Journal Article

Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?

After conducting two strategic bomber flights around Taiwan in late 2016, Beijing significantly stepped up its operational tempo with at least another five flights circumnavigating the island in mid-2017.