Marta Kepe

@martakepe on Twitter

Senior Defense Analyst

Washington Office

Education

M.A. in security studies, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service

One Page Bio

Overview

Marta Kepe is a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. Her research interests include defence policy and planning, defence industry and technology, national resilience, civilian-based resistance, unconventional warfare, and NATO and EU cooperation, European and transatlantic security, and Russia. She is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Prior to joining the RAND Corporation, she worked for RAND Europe, the Latvian Ministry of Defence, NATO Advisory Team in Kosovo, the United Nations and the National War College.

She received her M.A. in security studies from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Exploring Europe’s capability requirements for 2035 and beyond
Opportunities for European collaboration in armoured vehicles
Strategic Exercise for the Arctic region
Defence and security after Brexit: Understanding the possible implications of the UK's decision to leave the EU

Selected Publications

Binnendijk, Anika, Marta Kepe, Civilian-Based Resistance in the Baltic States: Historical Precedents and Current Capabilities, RAND Corporation (RR-A198-3), 2021

Marta Kepe, James Black, Jack Melling, Jessica Plumridge, Exploring Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035 and Beyond, European Defense Agency (EP-6656), 2018

Kepe, Marta, Richard Flint, and Julia Muravska, Future collaboration opportunities for light and medium multirole helicopters in Europe, RAND Corporation (RR-3034-EDA), 2019

Posard, Marek N., Marta Kepe, Hilary Reininger, James V. Marrone, Todd C. Helmus, and Jordan R. Reimer, From Consensus to Conflict: Understanding Foreign Measures Targeting U.S. Elections, RAND Corporation (RR-A704-1), 2020

Flanagan, Stephen J., Jan Osburg, Anika Binnendijk, Marta Kepe, and Andrew Radin, Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance, RAND Corporation (RR-2779), 2019

Honors & Awards

2023 Irregular Warfare Initiative Fellow, Irregular Warfare Initiative - Modern War Institute and Empirical Studies of Conflict
2022 RAND Innovation Spotlight Award, RAND

Commentary

Supply Chain Management

Enhance U.S. Rare Earth Security Through International Cooperation
Most rare earth elements and materials are sourced from overseas but China dominates extraction and processing. With closer multinational cooperation, the United States and its allies and partners could reduce vulnerabilities due to the dependency on China.
Nov 3, 2022
Defense News
Ukraine

What Is Continuity of Government, and Why Does It Matter for Ukraine's National Resistance?
As Ukraine continues to resist Russian occupation, future-focused planning could help it win a longer-term struggle to protect its legitimate government and deny Russia the political consolidation it seeks. Ensuring the continuity of Ukraine's democratically elected government could be a means of preserving national sovereignty moving forward.
Mar 17, 2022
The RAND Blog
Ukraine

What Kind of Resistance Can Ukraine Mount?
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has ordered general mobilization, and Ukrainians are already engaging in irregular warfare and preparing for a prolonged resistance. What might a comprehensive Ukrainian resistance entail? What is the potential effectiveness, and what are the risks? What support could the international community provide?
Feb 28, 2022
Defense News
Military Technology

Considering Military Culture and Values When Adopting AI
As the U.S. military contemplates increasing the number and diversity of AI and other autonomous systems, it should consider timely means of mitigating any potential negative side effects.
Jun 22, 2020
Small Wars Journal
Combat Support Operations

Lives on the Line: The A2AD Challenge to Combat Casualty Care
Countries such as Russia and China continue to develop and expand the ability to integrate long-range strike, anti-ship, anti-air, space and cyber abilities. Provision of medical support could be a worthy priority for NATO planners when considering deterrence of and defense against near-peer or peer adversaries.
Jul 31, 2018
Modern War Institute (West Point)
Military Mobilization

Exploring the Allied Decisions on Military Mobility in Europe
Debates about defense expenditure and concerns over the unity of NATO overshadowed decisions on defense and deterrence in Europe made during the recent NATO summit and European Council meetings. Both high-level events brought significant and tangible conclusions with potential impacts on defense, deterrence, and readiness in Europe.
Jul 27, 2018
Defense News
Military Mobilization

Military Mobility Returns to the Forefront in Europe
The importance of military mobility has returned only recently to the international high-level agenda, specifically NATO and the European Union. The EU is expected to tackle the issue of military mobility during a European Council meeting in late June, and NATO will convene a summit in July.
Jun 25, 2018
Defense News
Military Mobilization

Preparing for the NATO Summit: Why Military Mobility Should Be on Top of the Agenda
Improving military mobility in Europe has recently gathered momentum. But due to the complexity of the issue, it remains to be seen what specific progress will be made by the NATO summit in July. The same goes for how new EU initiatives will complement NATO requirements.
Feb 26, 2018
RealClearDefense
Military Health and Health Care

The Lack of Clarity Over Medical Support for Light Footprint Operations and How It Could Be Solved
Early identification and planning for medical support for EU-led military operations are vital to saving lives, treating injuries and keeping personnel healthy. Common standards would ensure high-quality and consistent medical support regardless of which country is providing it.
Sep 19, 2017
Pan European Networks
Information Operations

NATO: Prepared for Countering Disinformation Operations in the Baltic States?
NATO alliance countries deploying to the Baltics should prepare to deal with increasing levels of disinformation. An open and robust communication strategy could be crucial in tackling a sophisticated Russian disinformation campaign aimed at disrupting support for these deployments.
Jun 7, 2017
European Geostrategy
Security Cooperation

'If You Want Peace, Prepare for Resistance'
Lithuania's government issued a guide on how its citizens can resist a potential Russian invasion and occupation. Resistance is a key element of the “Total Defense” strategy all three Baltic states have been pursuing, spurred on by Russian aggression.
Nov 22, 2016
The National Interest
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NATO Decides to 'Troop the Colours' As Symbol of Deterrence in the Baltics
At its Warsaw summit in July, NATO agreed to establish a permanent rotating presence of its troops in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The decision may be interpreted as NATO's commitment to take its Baltic members' concerns seriously.
Jul 28, 2016
European Geostrategy

Publications

Report
The Russian General Staff: Understanding the Military's Decisionmaking Role in a "Besieged Fortress"
In this report, the authors develop a foundational text for policymakers and warfighters to improve collective understanding of the Russian General Staff, including its capacity to condition Russia's national security decisionmaking process.
Mar 22, 2023
Research Brief
Little in Common: Prospects for U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia Security Cooperation
This brief presents the overarching findings of a study that explored the extent to which the United States might still be able to cooperate with China and Russia, even in this era of strategic competition.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Global Commons
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia on global commons issues, including freedom of access to space, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting global stability.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Vanishing Trade Space: Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in an Era of Competition — A Project Overview
To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia even in this era of strategic competition? This report, the first of a four-part series, presents the overarching findings of a study that explored this question.
Feb 20, 2023
Report
Rivalry in the Information Sphere: Russian Conceptions of Information Confrontation
Information confrontation, with historical roots in Russian (and Soviet) military thinking, is an important element of Russian military strategy. The Ukrainian experience offers insights into Russia's present-day and future use of information confrontation and hybrid warfare.
Aug 18, 2022
Report
Countering Russia: The Role of Special Operations Forces in Strategic Competition
This report establishes a strategic framework for U.S. Army special operations forces support to countering Russian activities in the competition space.
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Civilian-Based Resistance in the Baltic States: Historical Precedents and Current Capabilities
If Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania were occupied, civilians could play a powerful role in their defense by imposing costs on the occupier, denying consolidation, reducing capacity for repression, securing allied support, and expanding popular support.
Nov 1, 2021
Report
A Compendium of Recommendations for Countering Russian and Other State-Sponsored Propaganda
To help audiences make sense of the large array of counterdisinformation recommendations, the authors of this report coded recommendations in 64 other policy reports and assessed which recommendations benefit from researcher consensus.
Jun 1, 2021
Report
Defence Mobilisation Planning Comparative Study: An Examination of Overseas Planning
Against the 2020 Defence Strategic Update, the authors use evidence from several countries to highlight the merits of a 'total defence' approach to mobilisation planning for Australia with the goal of meeting contemporary threats.
May 3, 2021
Report
From Consensus to Conflict: Understanding Foreign Measures Targeting U.S. Elections
Russia might try to manipulate and divide U.S. voters via social media during the U.S. political campaign season of 2020. This first report in a series of four reviews research on foreign actors targeting local, state, and national elections.
Oct 1, 2020
Research Brief
Understanding skills gaps in the European defence sector
This study developed an overview of the existing and future defence-skills landscape in the EU, identifying and analysing the skills gaps and assessing the causes of these gaps.
Jan 30, 2020
Journal Article
Annex K: United Kingdom: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex J: Sweden: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex H: Poland: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex I: Spain: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex F: Italy: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex G: Netherlands: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex E: Germany: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex D: France: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex C: Finland: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex B: Denmark: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Annex A: Overview of Literature on Defence-Related Skills: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Technical Annex: Identified Relevant Defence-Related Skills Programmes and Initiatives: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Technical Annex: Taxonomy: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Technical Annex: Methodologies: Annex to Report: Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
Annex to study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Journal Article
Vision on Defence-Related Skills for Europe Today and Tomorrow
A study examining the skills requirements of the European defence sector, defence-related skills gaps and shortages, the challenges with different sets of skills, and the general features of the European defence industrial skills supply.
Oct 30, 2019
Report
Future collaboration opportunities for light and medium multirole helicopters in Europe
RAND Europe examined the scope for collaboration between European states in light and medium multirole helicopters throughout their life-cycle (incl. maintenance, procurement, upgrade and R&D), in support of the European Defence Agency (EDA).
Jul 19, 2019
Report
Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War
In this report, the authors examine how the United States might respond to Russian and Chinese efforts to seek strategic advantage through coercive actions in the gray zone.
Jun 27, 2019
Report
Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance
The authors of this report examine how the unconventional defense strategies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania can deter and counteract Russian hybrid and military attacks, and assesses the roles of enabling technologies and international support.
Apr 15, 2019
Report
Opportunities for European collaboration in armoured vehicles
RAND Europe examined the scope for collaboration between European states in armoured vehicles (tracked, wheeled and protected transport vehicles) throughout their life-cycle, in support of the European Defence Agency (EDA).
Jan 23, 2019
Journal Article
Key Skills and Competences for Defence: Governmental Domain
This study, commissioned by the European Defence Agency, identifies key defence skills within the governmental domain and proposes recommendations for their sustainment.
Aug 16, 2018
Journal Article
Exploring Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035 and Beyond: Insights from the 2018 Update of the Long-Term Strand of the Capability Development Plan
In this report, RAND Europe describes and analyses the background and importance of the ongoing long-term revision of the Capability Development Plan - a strategic picture of European military capabilities regularly updated by the EDA.
Jul 6, 2018
Journal Article
A Constant Eye on the Future: Identifying Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035
Alex Hall, James Black and Marta Kepe of RAND Europe and Frank Bekkers of the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) describe and analyse the background and importance of the ongoing long-term revision of the Capability Development Plan (CDP).
Dec 15, 2017
Journal Article
Total Defense: How the Baltic States Are Integrating Citizenry Into Their National Security Strategies
The Baltic states' thinking about national defense increasingly encompasses civil society, starting from the leveraging of civilian infrastructure to the participation of civilians in national defense..
Oct 6, 2017
Report
Medical Support to Light Footprint Operations: Why smaller operations require a different approach to medical support
Traditional military medical support is designed for larger formations and draws on a heavier supporting infrastructure. Recent EU operations have a smaller number of personnel, shorter duration and seek to have a lighter infrastructure footprint.
Jun 9, 2017
Report
Defence and security after Brexit: Understanding the possible implications of the UK's decision to leave the EU — Compendium report
This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union ('Brexit'), whether for the UK, Europe or globally.
Mar 5, 2017
Report
Defence and security after Brexit: Understanding the possible implications of the UK's decision to leave the EU — Overview report
This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union ('Brexit'), whether for the UK, Europe or globally.
Mar 5, 2017