Forrest E. Morgan

Photo of Forrest Morgan
Senior Political Scientist; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Off Site Office


Ph.D. in policy studies, University of Maryland; M.A.A.S. in airpower arts and sciences, Air University; M.A. in computer systems management, Webster University; B.S. in business management, University of Maryland


Forrest Morgan is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. Prior to joining RAND in January 2003, Morgan served a 27-year career in the U.S. Air Force. His military assignments included duty as a signals intelligence analyst and as a space operations officer in various operations and staff positions. Later he served on the strategy and policy staff at Headquarters, U.S. Air Force, Pentagon, and did a tour of duty as a professor of comparative military studies at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. Since coming to RAND, Morgan has done strategy and doctrine research examining issues such as crisis stability, preemptive and preventive attack, escalation management, deterrence, military applications of artificial intelligence, and the operational resilience of U.S. airpower in the Asia-Pacific Theater.

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Adjunct Professor, Carnegie Mellon University

Recent Projects

  • Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence
  • A 21st Century Model for Deterrence
  • The Foundations of Operational Resilience
  • Confronting Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries
  • Crisis Stability and Future Long-Range Strike

Selected Publications

Forrest E. Morgan, "Dancing With the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict With Russia," IFRI Proliferation Papers, 40(Winter), 2012

Forrest E. Morgan, et al., Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management, RAND (RR-974-AF), 2015

Forrest E. Morgan, Crisis Stability and Long-Range Strike: A Comparative Analysis of Fighters, Bombers, and Missiles, RAND (MG-1258-AF), 2013

Forrest E. Morgan "The Concept of Air Power: Its Emergence, Evolution, and Future," in Richard P. Hallion, Roger Cliff, Phillip C. Saunders (eds.), The Chinese Air Force: Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities, National Defense University, 2012

Forrest E. Morgan, Deterrence and First-Strike Stability in Space: Preliminary Assessment, RAND (MG-916_AF), 2010

Forrest E. Morgan, et al., Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century, RAND (MG-614-AF), 2008

Karl P. Mueller, et al., Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy, RAND (MG-403-AF), 2006

Forrest E. Morgan, Compellence and the Strategic Culture of Imperial Japan, Praeger, 2003

Honors & Awards

  • Bronze Medal, RAND Corporation
  • Excellence in Research, RAND Project Air Force