Marek N. Posard

@mnposard on Twitter

Military Sociologist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in sociology, University of Maryland; M.A. in political science, Loyola University Chicago; B.A. in political science, Loyola University Chicago

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Marek N. Posard is a military sociologist at the RAND Corporation and an affiliate faculty member at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His primary areas of research focus on countering disinformation and the study of military manpower and personnel policies. Posard's research has focused on a range of topics, including unit cohesion, election security, military families, the recruitment and retention of personnel, and modeling will to fight. Most of his research uses survey, experimental, or qualitative methods. Posard holds a Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Maryland, and an M.A. and B.A. in political science from Loyola University Chicago.

Research Focus

Honors & Awards

Bronze Medal Award, RAND Corporation
Silver Medal Award, RAND Corporation

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Federal News Network; Government Matters; Voice of America

Commentary

Social Media Analysis

Elon Musk May Have a Point About Bots on Twitter
Twitter has a deep bench of engineers working for the company. They have access to trillions of data points on their over 300 million monthly active users. Why has a company this size struggled to clean up its platform?
Sep 23, 2022
The RAND Blog
Russia

Russia's Problems with Military Professionalization
Even if Russia manages to take control of the territory of Ukraine, the Russian military's underlying problems with professionalization may handicap these occupiers in their efforts to maintain control over that country for the long-term.
Mar 21, 2022
Breaking Defense
Military Personnel

Institutions May Be Key to Countering Extremism in the Military
Extremism is a symptom of broader social and political headwinds within civilian society. By using existing support programs, military leaders may be able to effectively confront these headwinds early and channel them in productive ways that ultimately preserve the effectiveness and readiness of the U.S. military.
Oct 4, 2021
The RAND Blog
Military Doctrine

The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning
U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.
May 20, 2021
Military Times
Data Privacy

A Snowden Pardon Could Have a Snowball Effect on Protecting National Security Secrets
If President Trump were to pardon Edward Snowden, then he might encourage vigilante behavior that puts at risk the very sensitive information and operations—meaning American interests and lives—that the U.S. national security system is intended to protect.
Sep 4, 2020
The National Interest
Information Operations

How You Can Fight Russia's Plans to Troll Americans During Campaign 2020
The goal of Russian interference is to trigger emotional reactions and drive people to ideological extremes, making it nearly impossible to build a consensus. But Americans are less likely to have their emotions manipulated if they are aware that manipulation is the goal.
Jul 14, 2020
Los Angeles Times
Information Operations

Artificial Intelligence and the Manufacturing of Reality
Humans carry flaws in deciding what is or is not real. The internet and other technologies have made it easier to weaponize and exploit these flaws. And artificial intelligence will likely be used to exploit these weaknesses at an unprecedented scale, speed, and level of effectiveness.
Jan 20, 2020
Strategy Bridge
Global Security

What Keeps Millennials Awake at Night Could Change Over Time
Millennials are less worried than baby boomers about national security topics and more worried about kitchen table issues, such as making ends meet each month and paying off debts. But this may have less to do with the fact that they are millennials and more to do with the fact that millennials are young.
Jul 30, 2018
United Press International

Publications

Report
A House Reunited: Prospects for Bipartisanship in a Divided Country
Based on workshop discussions, this Perspective presents some proposed solutions, and potential data sources to evaluate these solutions, to problems related to mis- and disinformation, election security, extremism, and immigration reform.
Jan 19, 2023
Research Brief
Deception Detection
In this report, the authors developed and tested the use of machine-learning methods to detect speech patterns that reflect attempts at deception or truthfulness during simulated security clearance background interviews.
Oct 19, 2022
Report
Looking for Lies: An Exploratory Analysis for Automated Detection of Deception
The authors of this report developed and tested the use of machine-learning methods to detect speech patterns that reflect attempts at deception or truthfulness during simulated security clearance background interviews.
Oct 19, 2022
Report
Leveraging diversity for military effectiveness: Diversity, inclusion and belonging in the UK and US Armed Forces
This study examines opportunities for leveraging diversity to enhance military effectiveness. A framework is presented to help guide the UK and US Armed Forces in their assessments of how diversity may be better leveraged in future.
Aug 23, 2022
Report
An Exploratory Examination of Agent-Based Modeling for the Study of Social Movements
The authors of this report explore the use of agent-based modeling as a method for studying the effects of information and communications technologies on the formation, maintenance, and dissolution of social movements over time.
Aug 16, 2022
Draft
The Role of Communication and Network Technologies in the Dynamics of Social Movements
Investigates the multi-faceted role of information technologies in the spread and dynamics of social movements.
Jun 10, 2022
Report
An Exploratory Analysis of Trends in Text Data from Congressional Oversight Hearings
Trends in what is said in congressional committees could signal the emergence of issues for policymakers. In this Perspective, researchers describe a proof of concept for how to acquire and begin analyzing congressional text data for policy analysis.
Dec 8, 2021
Report
Organizational and Cultural Causes of Army First-Term Attrition
The U.S. Army invests significant resources in new soldiers. When a soldier does not complete a full contract term, the Army views this as a net loss. This report assesses the organizational mechanisms that could be driving attrition.
Oct 5, 2021
Report
Reducing the Risk of Extremist Activity in the U.S. Military
The authors present a framework for reducing the risk of extremism in the U.S. military and recommend a community-based approach to better support commanders with their responsibilities for combating extremism.
Sep 16, 2021
Report
Understanding and Defending Against Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts in Europe
The authors describe apparent efforts by Russia and its agents to use information to shape Russia's operating environment, and they identify possible defensive approaches for United States European Command and its partners.
Aug 16, 2021
Report
Evaluation of the Military Spouse Employment Partnership Program: Report on the Second Stage of Analysis
In this second-phase study on the Military Spouse Employment Partnership (MSEP) program, the authors analyzed jobs on the MSEP Career Portal in 2016, interviewed participating employers in 2016, and then surveyed and interviewed spouses in 2019.
Jul 21, 2021
Report
Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections
This report describes responses to both Russian memes designed to breed dissension and a public service announcement warning about threats from foreign interference in U.S. elections. This is the fourth report in a series on election security.
Mar 29, 2021
Report
Updating Personnel Vetting and Security Clearance Guidelines for Future Generations
The authors identified select trends, including age-based factors, among younger adults to understand broader social changes that may affect current security clearance adjudication guidelines for positions in the U.S. government.
Mar 11, 2021
Report
Russian Propaganda Hits Its Mark: Experimentally Testing the Impact of Russian Propaganda and Counter-Interventions
This report, the third in a series, describes a study designed to assess how people react to and engage with Russia's online propaganda. Media literacy advisories and labeling the source of the propaganda were found to have a counter effect.
Oct 15, 2020
Report
Foreign Interference in the 2020 Election: Tools for Detecting Online Election Interference
This report, the second in a series on information efforts by foreign actors, describes what appears to be an instance of election interference on Twitter and offers recommendations for response.
Oct 8, 2020
Report
From Consensus to Conflict: Understanding Foreign Measures Targeting U.S. Elections
Russia might try to manipulate and divide U.S. voters via social media during the U.S. political campaign season of 2020. This first report in a series of four reviews research on foreign actors targeting local, state, and national elections.
Oct 1, 2020
Report
2017 U.S. Air Force Community Feedback Tool: Key Results Report for Air Force Headquarters
This report presents results from a self-reported needs assessment of airmen, spouses of airmen, and Air Force civilian employees intended to help leadership and service providers better address the major challenges that community members are facing.
Nov 14, 2019
Report
Evaluating Future Trends in Support of the Air Force Strategic Environment Assessment: Discussion and Results from a Structured Workshop
This report presents plausible futures based on nine trends in the categories of Geopolitical, Military & Warfare, and Human & Workforce to assist Air Force strategic planning in developing the Air Force Strategic Environment Assessment.
Oct 21, 2019
Report
Reflections on the Future of Warfare and Implications for Personnel Policies of the U.S. Department of Defense
This Perspective summarizes and synthesizes material from a workshop addressing how U.S. Department of Defense personnel policies may evolve to address future warfare environments, which are expected to be heavily influenced by advanced technologies.
Oct 16, 2019
Research Brief
Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War
This brief argues for the importance of improving our understanding of what influences will to fight, and it describes two models for doing so: one for analyzing a military unit's will to fight, and one for analyzing a nation's will to fight.
Sep 13, 2019
Report
Assessing the Need for and Uses of Sequences of Interest Databases: A Report on the Proceedings of a Two-Day Workshop
This report details the proceedings of a Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center workshop in which experts considered how a genetic database of "sequences of interest" could best support stakeholders to improve biotechnology research efforts.
Mar 21, 2019
Report
Life as a Private: Stories of Service from the Junior Ranks of Today's Army
This volume tells the stories of six soldiers in their own words. While a separate RAND Arroyo Center report details the service experiences of 81 junior enlisted soldiers, this report provides deeper insight into the junior enlisted experience.
Mar 6, 2019
Report
A Survey System to Assess Abuse and Misconduct Toward Air Force Students in Occupational Specialty Training
This report provides recommendations for how the Air Force's survey system for monitoring abuse and misconduct in Basic Military Training can best be adapted for use in technical training and flying training environments.
Mar 5, 2019
Report
An Early Evaluation of the My Career Advancement Account Scholarship for Military Spouses
My Career Advancement Account (MyCAA) Scholarships are intended to help military spouses with education and employment. This report evaluates MyCAA use, employment and earnings of eligible spouses, and service continuation of their service members.
Nov 29, 2018
Research Brief
Early Evidence from the My Career Advancement Account Scholarship for Military Spouses: Work, Earnings, and Retention
My Career Advancement Account Scholarships are intended to help military spouses with education and employment. The percentage of eligible spouses working declined over time, but users were more likely than nonusers to be working two years later.
Nov 29, 2018
Report
National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't
In this report, RAND researchers propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that shape a national government's decision to continue or end military and other operations during a conflict (i.e., national will to fight).
Sep 20, 2018
Report
Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units
This report defines and describes will to fight and provides a model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale. It also provides a theoretical basis for adding will to fight to military war gaming.
Sep 20, 2018
Report
Millennial Perceptions of Security: Results from a National Survey of Americans
This report -- part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 -- uses survey data to compare attitudes and opinions of millennials with those of previous generations and draws inferences about potential millennial concerns about security.
Jun 14, 2018
Report
Life as a Private: A Study of the Motivations and Experiences of Junior Enlisted Personnel in the U.S. Army
Who joins the Army, why, and how satisfied are they with their decisions? This study's portrayal of U.S. Army privates could serve as an educational tool for Army senior leadership, junior officers, noncommissioned officers, and prospective recruits.
May 14, 2018
Journal Article
Social Structure and Cognitive Orientation
Our results provided relatively more support for the explanation that people become holistic when network structures encourage them to be so for their own interests, and relatively less support for the explanation that holism results from strong affective attachments.
Aug 25, 2017
Journal Article
Effects of Social Context on Holistic Versus Analytic Orientation: A Cross-Cultural Experiment
This experiment found that the extent to which participants were holistic in their orientations varied according to the social context of their experimental group.
2017
Report
Evaluation of the Military Spouse Employment Partnership: Progress Report on First Stage of Analysis
This first of two reports documents the first phase of RAND research to assess the Military Spouse Employment Partnership's progress in supporting military spouse employment and closing the wage gap between military and civilian spouses.
Dec 28, 2015
Report
Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces
This report assesses challenges for unit cohesion from integrating women into special operations forces and provides analytical support for validating occupational standards for positions controlled by U.S. Special Operations Command.
Dec 16, 2015

Multimedia

1:36

Combating Extremism in the U.S. Military
Dec 10, 2021
2:43

Russian Interference in the 2020 U.S. Election
Oct 1, 2020
38:41

Millennials and National Security
Jun 28, 2018