Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare

Volume II, Technical Details for a Complex Adaptive Systems Lens

Sherrill Lingel, Matthew Sargent, Timothy R. Gulden, Tim McDonald, Parousia Rockstroh

ResearchPublished Aug 26, 2021

This report, the second of a two-volume series, provides technical details in support of the first volume, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges. Three topics are covered in this volume: a literature review of complex adaptive system (CAS) research, a CAS lens user manual, and a Markov chain formulation of the adversary decision process.

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Lingel, Sherrill, Matthew Sargent, Timothy R. Gulden, Tim McDonald, and Parousia Rockstroh, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume II, Technical Details for a Complex Adaptive Systems Lens. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2021. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA589-2.html.
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