This report, the second of a two-volume series, provides technical details in support of the first volume, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges. It contains a literature review of complex adaptive system (CAS) research, a CAS lens user manual, and a Markov chain formulation of the adversary decision process.

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Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare

Volume II, Technical Details for a Complex Adaptive Systems Lens

by Sherrill Lingel, Matthew Sargent, Timothy R. Gulden, Tim McDonald, Parousia Rockstroh

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This report, the second of a two-volume series, provides technical details in support of the first volume, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges. Three topics are covered in this volume: a literature review of complex adaptive system (CAS) research, a CAS lens user manual, and a Markov chain formulation of the adversary decision process.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction to Volume II

  • Chapter Two

    Complex Adaptive Systems

  • Chapter Three

    Complexity Adaptive Systems Lens "User Manual"

  • Chapter Four

    Markov Chain Formulation and Analysis of Decision Processes

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This research was commissioned by the Air Force Research Laboratory and conducted within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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