Bonny Lin

Adjunct Political Scientist

Off Site Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, Yale University; M.A. in Asian Studies, University of Michigan; B.A. in government, Harvard University

One Page Bio

Overview

Bonny Lin is an adjunct political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on U.S. defense policy towards China, India, and the Indo-Pacific region. Lin served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2015 to 2018, where she was the senior advisor for China and director for Taiwan. Prior to joining RAND, she worked at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the World Bank. Lin holds a Ph.D. in political science from Yale University, an M.A. in Asian studies (China) from the University of Michigan, and a B.A. in government from Harvard University.

Research Focus

Commentary

Why Ukraine Crisis Has China in a Bind
As much as China may wish to lean on Russia should Beijing find itself at odds with the United States, Xi seeks a new type of great power relationship with the United States that calls for mutual respect, no confrontation, and cooperation.
Apr 16, 2014 CNN

Publications

Report
Bridging the Gap: Assessing U.S. Business Community Support for U.S.-China Competition
The authors assess how the U.S. business community viewed Trump administration policies designed to counter China's anticompetitive economic behaviors and how to improve support from the business community in U.S. competition with China.
May 16, 2022
Report
Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific
This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 30, 2022
Research Brief
A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China's Gray Zone Tactics
This brief presents a framework for understanding how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 30, 2022
Research Brief
Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?
This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.
Aug 11, 2021
Testimony
U.S. Allied and Partner Support for Taiwan: Responses to a Chinese Attack on Taiwan and Potential U.S. Taiwan Policy Changes
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on February 18, 2021.
Feb 18, 2021
Report
Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Study Overview and Conclusions
The authors define U.S.-China competition for influence and assess competition in nine countries across the Indo-Pacific to gain insight into how the United States could work more effectively with allies and partners in Southeast Asia and beyond.
Nov 12, 2020
Research Brief
U.S. Versus Chinese Powers of Persuasion: Does the United States or China Have More Influence in the Indo-Pacific Region?
This brief assesses U.S.-China competition for influence in countries across the Indo-Pacific.
Nov 12, 2020
Report
At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World
China has always felt vulnerable, and, in the 1990s, it began forming agreements with other nations, eventually culminating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The authors analyze China's engagement with the Developing World.
Oct 16, 2018
Report
NATO's Northeastern Flank: Emerging Opportunities for Engagement
This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe to identify how changes in their interests, strategies, and capabilities affect U.S. partnering in the region.
Jun 20, 2017
Research Brief
Domestic Factors Could Accelerate the Evolution of China's Nuclear Posture
This brief discusses how domestic factors could influence China's evolving nuclear deterrent.
Apr 20, 2017
Report
China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States
This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.
Mar 15, 2017
Report
Training the People's Liberation Army Air Force Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Forces
This report analyzes key trends and themes in China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) surface-to-air missile (SAM) unit training.
Aug 30, 2016
Report
NATO's Northeastern Flank — Emerging Opportunities for Engagement: An Overview
This document is the executive summary of a report that explains the implications of the changing security relationship with Russia for U.S. Air Force and defense engagement with a group of key allies and partner states in northeastern Europe.
Jul 7, 2016
Report
Look East, Cross Black Waters: India's Interest in Southeast Asia
India's core goals for Southeast Asia largely match those of the United States, but America should not expect India to join any coalition to balance against China. Instead, the United States should work on cultivating long-term relations.
Oct 22, 2015
Brochure
China, Inside and Out: A Collection of Essays on Foreign and Domestic Policy in the Xi Jinping Era
This collection of essays explore some of the realities of China's overriding philosophies.
Oct 20, 2015
Report
Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn
Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case.
Dec 2, 2014