Abbie Tingstad

What Is Next for the Arctic Council in the Wake of Russian Rule?

Norway recently took over chairmanship of the Arctic Council from Russia under conditions never before experienced by the organization in its 27-year history. Despite the current uncertainties, there could be ways to move past the stalemate between Russia and the other council members.

Great Power Competition Is on the Arctic Agenda

Despite its military problems in Ukraine, Russia remains a formidable potential adversary in the Arctic. And there is a growing realization that China is not going away in the Arctic, bringing both of the United States' strategic competitors into Alaska's backyard. Can great power politics be checked at the door of the Far North?

Putin's Actions in Ukraine Are Spilling North

The decision of seven Arctic countries to suspend collaborative work with Russia in the Arctic is by far the most severe and consequential break in cooperation the region has ever seen. This breakdown of Arctic diplomacy could have several important impacts on the region and could potentially threaten the United States as well as its allies.

U.S. Military May Need to Invest More in Arctic Capabilities

Operating in the Arctic is inherently expensive. Despite this, it could be critical that the United States make the necessary investments to ensure a robust ability to operate in the Arctic to withstand Russian challenges there.

Analytical Gaming Could Help the U.S. Coast Guard Address Key Challenges

By gradually expanding its gaming efforts, the U.S. Coast Guard might improve both the quality of its decisions and the strength of its relationships, making the service ever more capable as it navigates the challenges of the 21st century.

Blinken's Arctic Opportunities

Continued positive U.S. engagement in the Arctic Council could be important for balancing the influence of Russia and China, and in moving toward the Biden administration's climate change goals. Washington's new priority on climate change could be an issue that will now bind, rather than divide, Arctic states.

Should Communities Be Concerned About Digital Technologies to Fight COVID-19?

Personal smart devices offer an unprecedented opportunity to identify, track, map, and communicate about COVID-19. But apps could pose privacy and security concerns.

Today's Arctic Diplomacy Can't Handle Tomorrow's Problems

The international structures that have helped address many Arctic problems through negotiation and cooperation are insufficient for the military and security challenges brought on by climate change. A new forum is needed to address military and security issues in the region.

Policy Challenges in the Arctic: Q&A with Abbie Tingstad

Abbie Tingstad discusses how the opening of the Arctic by climate change could strain relationships among Arctic nations, how these changes will affect indigenous communities, and what to make of Russia's military buildup in the region.

What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?

The shift in U.S. climate policy away from greenhouse gas reduction is significant for the Arctic, which is experiencing global warming at an accelerated rate. And a recent executive order will pave the way for expanded oil and gas drilling. How will these changes shape the Arctic in years to come?

Will the Breakdown in U.S.-Russia Cooperation Reach the Arctic?

Over the last few decades, the U.S. and Russia have often found common ground on Arctic affairs, at least in such areas as search and rescue and environmental integrity. The Arctic has the potential to remain resistant to tensions building elsewhere.

Being Safer in the Arctic

The Arctic is more accessible than it once was, but it's still a formidable place to travel. An emergency involving a cruise ship or a downed plane could stress the search-and-rescue system. But modest investments and planning measures can make a big difference.

Will the Arctic Remain a Warm Spot in Chilly U.S.-Russia Relations?

The United States should continue with its policy of engagement with Russia within Arctic institutions. This is the only way to keep building on a track record of successful agreements that make the Arctic safer for all.

Testimony

Enhancing Security in a Changing Arctic

Testimony submitted to the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security on November 29, 2023.

Report

Report on the Arctic Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces

This report summarizes the findings of research on U.S. and other armed forces' capabilities in the Arctic, the extent to which non-U.S. entities are operating where U.S. forces cannot, and how those operations might affect U.S. national interests.

Commentary

Existing and Emerging Topics and Potential Priorities for the Safety and Security of the Maritime Environment

This Perspective summarizes key existing and emerging maritime safety and security topics for policymakers and highlights some important considerations for technological modernization to support homeland security missions in this space.

Report

Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System

Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.

Report

Outsmarting Agile Adversaries in the Electromagnetic Spectrum: Executive Summary

This executive summary encapsulates the findings in Outsmarting Agile Adversaries in the Electromagnetic Spectrum (RR-A981-1) 2023.

Report

Outsmarting Agile Adversaries in the Electromagnetic Spectrum

RAND researchers conducted case studies comprising key elements necessary for creating near-real-time, autonomous, inflight software reprogramming and artificial intelligence–enabled cognitive electronic warfare capabilities for the U.S. Air Force.

Report

China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security

This report assesses China's strategy and diplomacy in the Arctic and the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities there for the rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security.

Visualization

Potential Drivers of Crises in the Arctic

Historically in the Arctic, regional tensions have been resolved before turning into major crises. With the Arctic gaining more attention in recent years, are existing governance mechanisms enough to handle future diplomatic challenges?

Report

Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures

Arctic states have long cooperated to avoid or mitigate conflict in the region. In this report, researchers identify potential areas of conflict and potential changes to governance mechanisms to help mitigate the identified risks.

Report

Assessing the Value of Intelligence Collected by U.S. Air Force Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Platforms

This report presents an approach to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assessments that seeks to articulate the costs and benefits of U.S. Air Force airborne ISR in specific operational contexts.

Report

Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 2, Technical Analysis and Supporting Material

The authors recommend tools, technologies, and processes to address the growing demand for Air Force Distributed Common Ground System support as it relates to intelligence squadrons within the 480th Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Wing.

Report

Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations

There is growing demand for the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System to analyze sensor data. The authors assessed how new tools and technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, can help meet these demands.

Research Brief

The Department of Defense's Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations for Improvement

In this report, RAND Corporation researchers assess the state of artificial intelligence relevant to the U.S. Department of Defense and provide recommendations for the future of the department's artificial intelligence posture.

Commentary

The U.S. Coast Guard Is Building an Icebreaker Fleet: What Comes Next? Issues and Challenges

Icebreaking has long been an important capability gap in U.S. polar operations. The authors of this Perspective make recommendations for the U.S. Coast Guard to close that gap and include short scenarios to illustrate potential needs for icebreakers.

Report

Recovery Planning for Natural Resources and Parks in Puerto Rico: Natural and Cultural Resources Sector Report, Volume I

The 2017 hurricanes harmed Puerto Rico's natural resources. Recommended courses of action, detailed in this report, would restore natural resources, manage solid waste, renew parks, and improve economic opportunities. Damage is characterized.

Commentary

How Can the Coast Guard Use Gaming?

The U.S. Coast Guard employs some gaming approaches, but doing so more formally could help the service expand its tool sets. In this Perspective, the authors discuss how the service can use gaming better.

Commentary

Decoding Data Science: The U.S. Coast Guard's Evolving Needs and Their Implications

This Perspective outlines the role that data science can play in decisionmaking processes and provides a selected set of key questions and sensitivities for the U.S. Coast Guard to consider in developing its future usage of this expanding field.

Report

Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program

The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.

Report

The Department of Defense Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations

In this report, the authors assess the state of artificial intelligence (AI) relevant to DoD, conduct an independent assessment of the Department of Defense's posture in AI, and put forth a set of recommendations to enhance that posture.

Testimony

Climate Change and U.S. Security in the Arctic

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security on September 19, 2019.

Testimony

Anticipating Policy Options for Addressing U.S. Arctic Hurdles: Addendum

Document submitted on June 19, 2019, as an addendum to testimony before the House Transportation and InfrastructureCommittee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation on May 8, 2019.

Testimony

Anticipating Policy Options for Addressing U.S. Arctic Hurdles

Testimony presented before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation on May 8, 2019.

Testimony

Climate, Geopolitics, and Change in the Arctic

Testimony presented before the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House of Commons on November 26, 2018.

Commentary

The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise Organised by RAND and Hosted by NUPI

This Perspective summarises the results of a table-top exercise on factors that could upset Arctic cooperation in the 2020 decade. While this exercise confirmed the solidity of cooperation, it also identified "wild cards" that could create tensions.

Report

Identifying Potential Gaps in U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Capabilities

This report documents a research project that focused on identifying priority potential Arctic capability gaps with respect to U.S. Coast Guard operations in the region in the present and in the 2030s.

Journal Article

Demonstrating the Applicability of a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to Conservation Decision-Making Under Uncertain Future Climate: Pilot Study Using the Northern Pygmy Salamander (Desmognathus Organi)

This study suggests initial ideas for managing climate uncertainty in conservation planning. Differences with previous RDM applications include focus on finer scale geography and significantly more uncertainty in the system (species response) model.

Report

Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North

This report examines security challenges that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic, explores how these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage risks to cooperation.

Report

Expanding Flight Research: Capabilities, Needs, and Management Options for NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate asked RAND to assess flight research capabilities and needs, and to identify management options that would facilitate increased and improved flight research.

Report

Leveraging the Past to Prepare for the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis

This report describes steps the U.S. Air Force can take to help ensure that it has the capability needed to provide intelligence analysis support to a broad range of service and combatant commander needs.

Journal Article

A ~ 13,000-Year Paleolimnological Record from the Uinta Mountains, Utah, Inferred from Diatoms and Loss-On-Ignition Analysis

Paleolimnological research in mountainous regions of the Western United States provide baseline understanding of how these lake systems will respond to ongoing climate change.

Journal Article

Long-term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah

Examines 20th Century hydrology in the Uinta Mountains region in the context of previous centuries as well as possible relationships with Pacific and Atlantic Ocean variability using new tree-ring based reconstructions for streamflow and snowpack.