Abbie Tingstad

Associate Director, Management, Technology, and Capabilities Program, RAND Homeland Security Research Division, Codirector, Climate Resilience Center, Senior Physical Scientist

Boston Office

Education

Ph.D. in geography, University of California, Los Angeles; M.Sc. in environmental geomorphology, University of Oxford; B.S. in mathematics, MIT

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Abbie Tingstad is an associate director of the Management, Technology, and Capabilities Program (MTC) in the Homeland Security Research Division, codirector of the Climate Resilience Center, and a senior physical scientist at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on issues related to strategy and planning in defense and homeland security, and for the environment. Research examples include: examining different pathways for Arctic development, documenting the Arctic capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces, enhancing resilience of water and energy utilities, analyzing needs for digital modernization, understanding priorities for technology research & development, and developing methods for foresight activities including analytic gaming.

Tingstad received her Ph.D. in geography from the University of California, Los Angeles. Prior to that, she was awarded an M.Sc. in environmental geomorphology from the University of Oxford, and a B.S. in mathematics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Tingstad, Abbie, Michael T. Wilson, Katherine Anania, Jordan R. Fischbach, Susan A. Resetar, Scott Savitz, Kristin Van Abel, R. J. Briggs, Aaron C. Davenport, Stephanie Pezard, Kristin Sereyko, Jonathan Theel, Marc Thibault, and Edward Ulin, Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program, RAND Corporation (RR-3147-DHS), 2020

Tingstad, Abbie, Dahlia Anne Goldfeld, Lance Menthe, Robert A. Guffey, Zachary Haldeman, Krista Langeland, Amado Cordova, Elizabeth M. Waina, and Balys Gintautas, Assessing the Value of Intelligence Collected by U.S. Air Force Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Platforms, RAND Corporation (RR-2742-AF), 2021

Tingstad, Abbie, Susan A. Resetar, Jordan R. Fischbach, and Jessie Riposo, Climate Change and Implications for Disasters in the United States: Examples from the Arctic, Caribbean, Northeast, and Gulf States, RAND Corporation (PT-A2094-1), 2022

Sacks, Benjamin J., Scott R. Stephenson, Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, and Camilla T. N. Sørensen, Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures, RAND Corporation (RR-A1007-1), 2021

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Defense One

Commentary

Arctic Region

Great Power Competition Is on the Arctic Agenda
Despite its military problems in Ukraine, Russia remains a formidable potential adversary in the Arctic. And there is a growing realization that China is not going away in the Arctic, bringing both of the United States' strategic competitors into Alaska's backyard. Can great power politics be checked at the door of the Far North?
Feb 16, 2023
The Hill
Security Cooperation

Putin's Actions in Ukraine Are Spilling North
The decision of seven Arctic countries to suspend collaborative work with Russia in the Arctic is by far the most severe and consequential break in cooperation the region has ever seen. This breakdown of Arctic diplomacy could have several important impacts on the region and could potentially threaten the United States as well as its allies.
Mar 30, 2022
The Hill
Arctic Region

U.S. Military May Need to Invest More in Arctic Capabilities
Operating in the Arctic is inherently expensive. Despite this, it could be critical that the United States make the necessary investments to ensure a robust ability to operate in the Arctic to withstand Russian challenges there.
Feb 10, 2022
United Press International
United States Coast Guard

Analytical Gaming Could Help the U.S. Coast Guard Address Key Challenges
By gradually expanding its gaming efforts, the U.S. Coast Guard might improve both the quality of its decisions and the strength of its relationships, making the service ever more capable as it navigates the challenges of the 21st century.
Nov 8, 2021
RealClearDefense
Arctic Region

Blinken's Arctic Opportunities
Continued positive U.S. engagement in the Arctic Council could be important for balancing the influence of Russia and China, and in moving toward the Biden administration's climate change goals. Washington's new priority on climate change could be an issue that will now bind, rather than divide, Arctic states.
May 19, 2021
Defense One
Health Information Privacy

Should Communities Be Concerned About Digital Technologies to Fight COVID-19?
Personal smart devices offer an unprecedented opportunity to identify, track, map, and communicate about COVID-19. But apps could pose privacy and security concerns.
May 13, 2020
Inside Sources
Security Cooperation

Today's Arctic Diplomacy Can't Handle Tomorrow's Problems
The international structures that have helped address many Arctic problems through negotiation and cooperation are insufficient for the military and security challenges brought on by climate change. A new forum is needed to address military and security issues in the region.
Jan 29, 2020
Defense One
Arctic Region

Policy Challenges in the Arctic: Q&A with Abbie Tingstad
Abbie Tingstad discusses how the opening of the Arctic by climate change could strain relationships among Arctic nations, how these changes will affect indigenous communities, and what to make of Russia's military buildup in the region.
Oct 6, 2017
Arctic Region

What Does 'America First' Look Like in the Arctic?
The shift in U.S. climate policy away from greenhouse gas reduction is significant for the Arctic, which is experiencing global warming at an accelerated rate. And a recent executive order will pave the way for expanded oil and gas drilling. How will these changes shape the Arctic in years to come?
May 25, 2017
United Press International
Arctic Region

Will the Breakdown in U.S.-Russia Cooperation Reach the Arctic?
Over the last few decades, the U.S. and Russia have often found common ground on Arctic affairs, at least in such areas as search and rescue and environmental integrity. The Arctic has the potential to remain resistant to tensions building elsewhere.
Oct 12, 2016
Inside Sources
Arctic Region

Being Safer in the Arctic
The Arctic is more accessible than it once was, but it's still a formidable place to travel. An emergency involving a cruise ship or a downed plane could stress the search-and-rescue system. But modest investments and planning measures can make a big difference.
Oct 3, 2016
The National Interest
Arctic Region

Will the Arctic Remain a Warm Spot in Chilly U.S.-Russia Relations?
The United States should continue with its policy of engagement with Russia within Arctic institutions. This is the only way to keep building on a track record of successful agreements that make the Arctic safer for all.
Apr 28, 2016
U.S. News & World Report

Publications

Report
Outsmarting Agile Adversaries in the Electromagnetic Spectrum: Executive Summary
This executive summary encapsulates the findings in Outsmarting Agile Adversaries in the Electromagnetic Spectrum (RR-A981-1) 2023.
Jan 19, 2023
Report
Outsmarting Agile Adversaries in the Electromagnetic Spectrum
RAND researchers conducted case studies comprising key elements necessary for creating near-real-time, autonomous, inflight software reprogramming and artificial intelligence–enabled cognitive electronic warfare capabilities for the U.S. Air Force.
Jan 19, 2023
Report
China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security
This report assesses China's strategy and diplomacy in the Arctic and the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities there for the rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security.
Dec 23, 2022
Multimedia
Update on Findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
In this webinar, contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and experts from the RAND Climate Resilience Center discuss findings from the report of the IPCC Working Group II.
Aug 3, 2022
Multimedia
Climate Change and Implications for Disasters in the United States: Examples from the Arctic, Caribbean, Northeast, and Gulf States
Climate change is contributing to more frequent and more severe disasters. Researchers examine disaster risk from climate change to the Arctic, the Caribbean, the Northeast, and the Gulf states.
Jun 10, 2022
Visualization
Potential Drivers of Crises in the Arctic
Historically in the Arctic, regional tensions have been resolved before turning into major crises. With the Arctic gaining more attention in recent years, are existing governance mechanisms enough to handle future diplomatic challenges?
Sep 22, 2021
Report
Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures
Arctic states have long cooperated to avoid or mitigate conflict in the region. In this report, researchers identify potential areas of conflict and potential changes to governance mechanisms to help mitigate the identified risks.
Jul 27, 2021
Report
Assessing the Value of Intelligence Collected by U.S. Air Force Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Platforms
This report presents an approach to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assessments that seeks to articulate the costs and benefits of U.S. Air Force airborne ISR in specific operational contexts.
Jun 11, 2021
Report
Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 2, Technical Analysis and Supporting Material
The authors recommend tools, technologies, and processes to address the growing demand for Air Force Distributed Common Ground System support as it relates to intelligence squadrons within the 480th Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Wing.
Jan 27, 2021
Report
Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations
There is growing demand for the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System to analyze sensor data. The authors assessed how new tools and technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, can help meet these demands.
Jan 27, 2021
Research Brief
The Department of Defense's Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations for Improvement
In this report, RAND Corporation researchers assess the state of artificial intelligence relevant to the U.S. Department of Defense and provide recommendations for the future of the department's artificial intelligence posture.
Jan 26, 2021
Report
The U.S. Coast Guard Is Building an Icebreaker Fleet: What Comes Next? Issues and Challenges
Icebreaking has long been an important capability gap in U.S. polar operations. The authors of this Perspective make recommendations for the U.S. Coast Guard to close that gap and include short scenarios to illustrate potential needs for icebreakers.
Dec 8, 2020
Report
Recovery Planning for Natural Resources and Parks in Puerto Rico: Natural and Cultural Resources Sector Report, Volume I
The 2017 hurricanes harmed Puerto Rico's natural resources. Recommended courses of action, detailed in this report, would restore natural resources, manage solid waste, renew parks, and improve economic opportunities. Damage is characterized.
Sep 30, 2020
Report
How Can the Coast Guard Use Gaming?
The U.S. Coast Guard employs some gaming approaches, but doing so more formally could help the service expand its tool sets. In this Perspective, the authors discuss how the service can use gaming better.
Sep 9, 2020
Report
Decoding Data Science: The U.S. Coast Guard's Evolving Needs and Their Implications
This Perspective outlines the role that data science can play in decisionmaking processes and provides a selected set of key questions and sensitivities for the U.S. Coast Guard to consider in developing its future usage of this expanding field.
Jun 24, 2020
Report
Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program
The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.
May 27, 2020
Report
The Department of Defense Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations
In this report, the authors assess the state of artificial intelligence (AI) relevant to DoD, conduct an independent assessment of the Department of Defense's posture in AI, and put forth a set of recommendations to enhance that posture.
Dec 17, 2019
Testimony
Climate Change and U.S. Security in the Arctic
Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security on September 19, 2019.
Sep 19, 2019
Testimony
Anticipating Policy Options for Addressing U.S. Arctic Hurdles: Addendum
Document submitted on June 19, 2019, as an addendum to testimony before the House Transportation and InfrastructureCommittee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation on May 8, 2019.
Jun 20, 2019
Testimony
Anticipating Policy Options for Addressing U.S. Arctic Hurdles
Testimony presented before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation on May 8, 2019.
May 8, 2019
Testimony
Climate, Geopolitics, and Change in the Arctic
Testimony presented before the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House of Commons on November 26, 2018.
Nov 26, 2018
Report
The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise Organised by RAND and Hosted by NUPI
This Perspective summarises the results of a table-top exercise on factors that could upset Arctic cooperation in the 2020 decade. While this exercise confirmed the solidity of cooperation, it also identified "wild cards" that could create tensions.
May 8, 2018
Report
Identifying Potential Gaps in U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Capabilities
This report documents a research project that focused on identifying priority potential Arctic capability gaps with respect to U.S. Coast Guard operations in the region in the present and in the 2030s.
Apr 11, 2018
Journal Article
Demonstrating the Applicability of a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to Conservation Decision-Making Under Uncertain Future Climate: Pilot Study Using the Northern Pygmy Salamander (Desmognathus Organi)
This study suggests initial ideas for managing climate uncertainty in conservation planning. Differences with previous RDM applications include focus on finer scale geography and significantly more uncertainty in the system (species response) model.
Oct 3, 2017
Report
Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North
This report examines security challenges that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic, explores how these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage risks to cooperation.
Mar 2, 2017
Report
Expanding Flight Research: Capabilities, Needs, and Management Options for NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate
NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate asked RAND to assess flight research capabilities and needs, and to identify management options that would facilitate increased and improved flight research.
Jun 27, 2016
Report
Leveraging the Past to Prepare for the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis
This report describes steps the U.S. Air Force can take to help ensure that it has the capability needed to provide intelligence analysis support to a broad range of service and combatant commander needs.
Apr 27, 2016
Journal Article
A ~ 13,000-Year Paleolimnological Record from the Uinta Mountains, Utah, Inferred from Diatoms and Loss-On-Ignition Analysis
Paleolimnological research in mountainous regions of the Western United States provide baseline understanding of how these lake systems will respond to ongoing climate change.
Apr 1, 2011
Journal Article
Long-term Relationships Between Ocean Variability and Water Resources in Northeastern Utah
Examines 20th Century hydrology in the Uinta Mountains region in the context of previous centuries as well as possible relationships with Pacific and Atlantic Ocean variability using new tree-ring based reconstructions for streamflow and snowpack.
Oct 1, 2010