International Affairs

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What Is the Long-Term Strategy for Ukraine's Air Force?

It is encouraging that Ukraine might receive F-16s to improve its combat capabilities. Western policymakers might begin thinking now about what the Ukrainian Air Force may require in the future, especially if the Russian threat remains acute.

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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America Is Winning Against China in Oceania

The United States retains enormous advantages in Oceania and should not be alarmed by China's security activities in the region. Washington should nevertheless keep a close eye on Beijing's moves, particularly against small and weak nations that will struggle to counter Chinese coercive activities on their own.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine

After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.

Brynn Tannehill

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Military Assistance to Ukraine Is a Rare Success

Recently, the United States reversed its long-standing opposition to sending Ukraine F-16 advanced aircraft to aid its fight against Russia. The policy reversal is a smart call. Once the aircraft are delivered and training is complete the jets will help Ukraine defend its territory more efficiently, and might even help end the war.

Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes, Richard Bennet

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A Unique Opportunity Not To Be Squandered: Advancing Our Relationships in Central Asia

Concerned about Putin's imperialist actions in Ukraine, five nations in Central Asia are looking to the West to offset the political, economic, and security-related pressures they feel from Russia and, increasingly, China. It would be a mistake for the United States not to seize this moment.

Robert Schlesiger, Daniel Egel, et al.

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F-16s Will Bolster Ukraine's Fighting Force

F-16s going to Ukraine could help it defend against Russian aerial assaults. But their greatest value may be to augment future Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at retaking occupied land. This will require training and exercising, but Ukrainian forces are fully capable of mastering it.

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Navigating Complex Maritime Security Challenges in the Black and Mediterranean Seas: Insights from the Updated EUMSS

The European Union understands the rising geopolitical challenges that will affect security in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, both from non-state actors and as a result of state-based competition and conflict. Cooperation with non-EU countries will be critical in promoting maritime security in the region.

Hunter Stoll

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Beyond the 'Mine Shaft Gap': Navigating Threat Perceptions in the Sino-American Rivalry

In “Dr. Strangelove,” the “mine shaft gap” was an astute satirical concept that reflected the mindset that any perceived disadvantage between the United States and the Soviet Union posed an existential threat. Though fictional, this kind of calculation is not unheard of in real-life, modern-day thinking. Shrewd discernment could help avoid it as the United States pursues its national security objectives.

Christopher A. Mouton

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Does America Still Need Europe?

The United States should be discriminating in its choice of global commitments. But if critical U.S. interests are at stake in Europe, then Washington should take the necessary steps to maintain NATO unity and European stability.

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

Raphael S. Cohen

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Upcoming Presidential Election Will Clarify Taiwan's China Policy

Until the Taiwanese presidential election next January, China, the United States, and many other countries will be watching Taiwan with bated breath. Across the Indo-Pacific region and the world, the hope would simply be that no matter who is elected, peace and stability continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Extremism, Medicaid, Florida's 'Don't Say Gay' Law: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing domestic extremism, managing reductions in Medicaid enrollment, the effects of Florida's “Don't Say Gay” law, and more.

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U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Q&A with Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick

Priebe and Frederick discuss the implications of the findings in their new report, Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach.

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What Is Next for the Arctic Council in the Wake of Russian Rule?

Norway recently took over chairmanship of the Arctic Council from Russia under conditions never before experienced by the organization in its 27-year history. Despite the current uncertainties, there could be ways to move past the stalemate between Russia and the other council members.

Abbie Tingstad, Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard

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Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough

The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman