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International Affairs

Trade Barriers
commentary
Trump's Tariffs Against China Aren't Working. And There's No Quick Resolution in Sight
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Aug 20, 2019
Los Angeles Times
Given the goals the United States has articulated publicly, it is difficult to see an early resolution to the U.S.-China trade disputes. In any case, comprehensive trade barriers against China may be as much the goal as the lever. U.S. measures may also have been always more political than economic in motivation.
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Law of the Sea
commentary
Why Vanguard Bank and Why Now? Explaining Chinese Behavior in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Aug 19, 2019
Maritime Issues
What can Vietnam do now to make Chinese assertiveness against it less likely going forward? Although deepening the U.S.-Vietnam defense partnership in the short-term may be contributing to trouble with China, closer cooperation in the long-run could serve to deter China. Enhancing cooperation with Vietnam's other defense partners—namely Australia, Japan, and India—could help to deter Beijing as well.
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Japan
commentary
Japan's Hormuz Dilemma
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Aug 16, 2019
The Hill
Japan is a staunch U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific. But any decision to support a coalition against Iran in the Middle East is likely to put Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a tough position.
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Counterinsurgency
commentary
Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
David E. Thaler, Yousuf Abdelfatah
Aug 12, 2019
Small Wars Journal
Since 2013 Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway against militant groups on the peninsula, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services to its citizens there and repairing its relationship with them.
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North Korea
commentary
Searching for Signs of Doi Moi in North Korea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Christian Curriden, Dung Huynh
Aug 12, 2019
38 North
President Trump's second summit with Kim Jong Un prompted voluminous commentary about whether Pyongyang might adopt the “Vietnam model” of economic reform and opening up, known as doi moi. Some version of doi moi is not impossible in North Korea, but it will likely be more difficult than it was in Vietnam and made all the more so by Kim's reluctance to risk losing absolute control.
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Taiwan
commentary
Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Aug 9, 2019
Institut Montaigne
Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.
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Iran
commentary
Iran's Cooperation with the Taliban Could Affect Talks on U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Ariane M. Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai
Aug 9, 2019
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has acknowledged that his country has some level of cooperation with the Taliban. How did Iran's relationship with the Taliban come about? And how might it affect the future of U.S.-Taliban talks?
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Reagan's Cold War Lessons for Handling Russia
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Aug 9, 2019
RealClearWorld
Rising public protests in Russia may be putting the Kremlin on the defensive at home. But Moscow is playing offense abroad, challenging the West more than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency. Reagan's strategy to counter the Kremlin back then offers insights that could help guide U.S. policy today.
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Military Facilities
commentary
The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia
Timothy R. Heath
Aug 7, 2019
World Politics Review
China and Cambodia have reportedly signed a secret agreement allowing the Chinese navy to use a military facility near Ream, along Cambodia's southern coast, though both countries deny the reports. The installation of a Chinese military facility in Cambodia, if realized, would further complicate an already sensitive and tense situation in the region.
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United States
blog
RAND's Summer Reading List for Congress
Aug 5, 2019
For busy staff, August's respite from back-to-back meetings, hearing preparation, and late votes is hard-earned. The summer recess also provides an opportunity to get ahead of issues that will resurface in the fall. To that end, we have compiled recent RAND research on topics likely to top the congressional agenda come September.
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China
commentary
Yes, Sam Huntington Has Insights to Guide U.S. Competition with China
Ali Wyne @Ali_Wyne
Jul 25, 2019
Financial Times
Many U.S. observers believe that the United States is declining relative to China. The United States' long-term competitiveness will be served neither by assuming that China is fated to collapse on account of its internal contradictions nor by presuming that it is destined to preside over a world order with Chinese characteristics. Sustainable strategy requires a measured disposition.
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United Kingdom
commentary
A Challenging Moment for Boris Johnson
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries
Jul 23, 2019
The Hill
As Britain's next prime minister, Boris Johnson will bring advantages, and disadvantages, in seeking to lead the United Kingdom through a period as challenging as the Suez Crisis or (perhaps) the darkest days of World War II.
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North Korea
commentary
Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting
Naoko Aoki @naokoaoki
Jul 15, 2019
The National Interest
Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.
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Hong Kong
commentary
Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jul 3, 2019
The Hill
Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.
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North Korea
commentary
How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jul 2, 2019
The Hill
The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Preparing for a Venezuela After Maduro
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jun 24, 2019
Foreign Affairs
If it becomes evident that Maduro isn't about to fall, then the Trump administration should revisit its sanctions and rescind those that weigh most heavily on the Venezuelan people, while targeting and isolating the regime.
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