International Affairs

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Export Controls Give ASML and the Netherlands an Opportunity to Lead by Example. Will They Take It?

Dutch tech company ASML makes the complex machines required to construct advanced microchips, and it sells many of these machines to China. Harmonization of export controls between the United States and the Netherlands could limit China's development of military technologies and its human rights abuses.

Martijn Rasser, Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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What's the Harm in Talking to Russia? A Lot, Actually

Despite the way it is commonly portrayed, diplomacy is not intrinsically and always good, nor is it cost-free. In the Ukraine conflict, the problems with a push for diplomacy are especially apparent. The likely benefits of negotiations are minimal, and the prospective costs could be significant.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

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Russian Aircraft Keep Crashing. Could Sanctions Be the Cause?

At least six fixed-wing Russian aircraft have crashed over Russian-controlled airspace since September. Sanctions placed on Russia by the West could well be affecting Russia's ability to manufacture and maintain parts needed to keep aircraft safe.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

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Is Seabed Mining an Opportunity to Break China's Stranglehold on Critical Minerals Supply Chains?

China dominates global supply chains for nearly all critical mineral resources, including the rare earths that power decarbonization technologies. Seabed mining may be a way to diversify critical minerals supply chains and break China's stranglehold on supplies of some of the world's most important natural resources.

Tom LaTourrette

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Governance in Space: Mining the Moon and Beyond

Without further cooperation and agreement among space powers, multiple, competing governance systems may end up being established, further increasing potential for conflict. The time to address this issue is now, so that the use of deep-space resources contributes to prosperity, security, and freedom on Earth and throughout the solar system.

Jan Osburg, Mary Lee @MaryLee_PhD

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How Russia's War in Ukraine Has Impacted Its Christian Image

Over the past decade, the Russian government has taken pains to present itself as a bastion of Christianity and traditional values. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, however, there have been noticeable cracks in the receptivity to this messaging strategy.

Ryan Bauer

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Xi Likely Won't Be Attacking Taiwan Anytime Soon

Rather than start a war, Xi Jinping is more likely to intensify China's use of coercive measures against Taiwan, including diplomatic, economic, and military pressure coupled with cyber and psychological operations. If coercion fails, Beijing might turn to force as a last resort, but this still seems unlikely given the many complicating factors.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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America's Pacific Island Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The United States hosted its first Pacific Islands Summit in September. Pacific Island leaders and observers from over a dozen states participated in the event and pledged to jointly tackle various challenges. But this historic summit was hardly an absolute success, and should be put within its proper context.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss preparing for future pandemics; planning now for a negotiated outcome in Ukraine; insights from Ukraine that relate to Taiwan; the need for more data to help reduce law enforcement–related deaths; how China might react to U.S. posture changes; and using statistics to improve military force planning.

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Enhance U.S. Rare Earth Security Through International Cooperation

Most rare earth elements and materials are sourced from overseas but China dominates extraction and processing. With closer multinational cooperation, the United States and its allies and partners could reduce vulnerabilities due to the dependency on China.

Marta Kepe @martakepe, Fabian Villalobos @doktor_wolfhaus

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How Should the U.S. Military Share Secrets?

For security cooperation to work, allies may need access to details of U.S. military plans and activities. But does the need for a clearly defined U.S. advantage prevent sharing information that may be broadly in the U.S. interest? Who should evaluate this advantage, and at what level?

Andrew Radin @andrewmradin

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Racism and Patient Safety, Abortion After Dobbs, Homelessness: RAND Weekly Recap

This week, we discuss how racism impacts patient safety; the effects of overturning Roe v. Wade; trauma in the U.S. Intelligence Community; addressing homelessness in L.A.; disputes in the South China Sea; and how space mirrors might help address climate change.

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Ukraine's Dream Could Be Taiwan's Nightmare

Defenders of territorial sovereignty and a peaceful world order may be cheered by Ukraine's success, but there is danger that success could decrease the urgency of efforts to strengthen Taiwan. China will seek to learn from the problems Russia has had in Ukraine. Will the U.S. and other supporters of Taiwan do the same?

Michael Spirtas

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Planning Now for a Negotiated Outcome in Ukraine

The United States should consider keeping open lines of communication with Russia. While it may not lead to peace in Ukraine any time soon, it could help mitigate the risks of dramatic escalation and indefinite war.

Samuel Charap @scharap, Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe

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Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?

Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.

Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini