Projections of Consumption of Products Using Chlorofluorocarbons in Developing Countries

This Note reports results from research on likely future emissions of potential ozone-depleting substances. It deals with products that either contain chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or emit CFCs during production, examines the way in which developing countries have actually used these products, and examines the relationship of this use to income. Based on this relationship, it then projects the future use of such products in the developing world. Nonlinear statistical models are used to relate levels of automobile and refrigerator ownership, imports of air conditioning machinery, and annual use of CFCs in aerosol applications to gross national product (GNP) per capita. With population forecasts and various assumptions about medium-term growth of GNP per capita, these models are used to project consumption of these products, and the derived demand for CFCs, in individual developing countries in the year 2000.