An Analytic Method for Constructing Scenarios from a Subjective Joint Probability Distribution

by Frank Camm, James K. Hammitt


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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has undertaken a major effort to study the potential effects of emitting chlorofluorocarbons and related potential ozone-depleting substances (PODs) into the atmosphere. As part of this effort, the EPA is attempting to characterize systematically the uncertainties about these effects, and to examine the likely consequences of alternative policies to control the emission of PODs. This Note is part of an effort to characterize the uncertainties about market and technological factors that may affect the future global production of seven PODs: CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, Halon 1211, and Halon 1301. It explains how information about the uncertainties associated with each of these chemicals separately is used to develop scenarios that illustrate these uncertainties jointly in a useful way.

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