Timing Regulations to Prevent Stratospheric-Ozone Depletion

by James K. Hammitt


Full Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 2.6 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.


Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback77 pages $25.00 $20.00 20% Web Discount

Decisions concerning whether to impose regulations to restrict emissions of potential ozone-depleting substances must be made in a context characterized by three important features: (1) estimates of the likely extent of future stratospheric-ozone depletion and its consequences for life on earth are highly uncertain; (2) continuing scientific research can be expected to reduce, but not eliminate, these uncertainties; and (3) the relationship between potential-ozone-depleter production and environmental consequences is characterized by lags on the order of decades or more. Using a simple decision-tree framework, this research addresses the key question of whether it is desirable to impose emission-limiting regulations now, or to wait five to ten years to develop improved scientific understanding before deciding whether to regulate. Under a wide range of assumptions, beginning regulations immediately is cost-effective if the probability that regulations will eventually be required exceeds about 0.3 to 0.5. The research was presented at the September 1986 United Nations Environment Programme Workshop on the Control of Chlorofluorocarbons.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.