Potential Economic Effects of Brexit

Implications for the United Kingdom, European Union, and United States

Charles P. Ries, Marco Hafner, Troy D. Smith, Frances G. Burwell, Daniel Egel, Eugeniu Han, Martin Stepanek, Howard J. Shatz, Lee Floyd, Monica Hertzman, et al.

ToolPublished Dec 11, 2017

How might Brexit affect the economies of the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States? This will depend on the outcomes of the ongoing negotiations and decisions made about trade and investment.

This calculator allows users to examine how the negotiations are likely to affect these three economies in the 10 years after Brexit negotiations conclude. It shows the economic effects of the UK's withdrawal from the EU under five proposed "hard Brexit" scenarios — ranging from complete economic separation with a return to World Trade Organization rules to an Atlantic trade partnership that includes the UK, United States, and remaining European states ("EU27").

The tool lets users examine the economic implications of specific trade and investment decisions. A Custom Scenario option lets users investigate how outcomes might change under assumptions that differ from those presented in the report. This new scenario can then be compared to each of the others.

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RAND Style Manual
Ries, Charles P., Marco Hafner, Troy D. Smith, Frances G. Burwell, Daniel Egel, Eugeniu Han, Martin Stepanek, Howard J. Shatz, Lee Floyd, Monica Hertzman, and Christopher E. Maerzluft, Potential Economic Effects of Brexit: Implications for the United Kingdom, European Union, and United States, RAND Corporation, TL-277-RC, 2017. As of September 9, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL277.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Ries, Charles P., Marco Hafner, Troy D. Smith, Frances G. Burwell, Daniel Egel, Eugeniu Han, Martin Stepanek, Howard J. Shatz, Lee Floyd, Monica Hertzman, and Christopher E. Maerzluft, Potential Economic Effects of Brexit: Implications for the United Kingdom, European Union, and United States. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL277.html.
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