David E. Thaler

Senior International/Defense Researcher

Washington Office

Education

M.I.A. in International Security Policy/Middle East, Columbia University; B.A. in international relations, The George Washington University

One Page Bio

Overview

David Thaler is a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation. In 35 years at RAND, he has led or participated in studies related to security cooperation with foreign partners, including planning and assessment, Title 10 reforms, prioritization, evaluation, and best practices; foreign policy and military implications of developments in Iran, Israel, Iraq, and the broader Middle East, as well as Iranian domestic politics; future U.S. military capabilities; and the strategies-to-tasks framework for force planning. He has also conducted research on first-strike stability, aircraft maintenance, and military readiness. He was detailed from RAND to the Air Staff from 1993 to 1995 and again from 2003 to 2004. Thaler received his M.I.A. (Master of International Affairs) in international security policy and the Middle East from Columbia University.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Congressional authorities for security cooperation
Strategic challenges posed by Iran
Incorporating security cooperation impact into core decision making processes
Sectarianism in the Middle East
Measuring contributions to security cooperation objectives

Selected Publications

Keller, Kirsten M., David E. Thaler, Kathleen Reedy, Caroline Baxter, Ryan Haberman, William Mackenzie, Miriam Matthews, Phillip Padilla, and Yuliya Shokh, Human Aspects of Air Force Operations: The Roles of Social, Cultural, and Political Knowledge and Skills in the Full Spectrum of Multidomain Operations, RAND Corporation (RR-3221-AF), 2020

Cohen, Raphael S., David E. Johnson, David E. Thaler, Brenna Allen, Elizabeth M. Bartels, James Cahill, and Shira Efron, From Cast Lead to Protective Edge: Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza, RAND Corporation (RR-1888), 2017

Thaler, David E., Michael J. McNerney, Beth Grill, Jefferson P. Marquis, and Amanda Kadlec, From Patchwork to Framework: A Review of Title 10 Authorities for Security Cooperation, RAND Corporation (RR-1438), 2016

Mesic, Richard, David E. Thaler, David A. Ochmanek, and Leon Goodson, Courses of Action for Enhancing U.S. Air Force "Irregular Warfare" Capabilities: A Functional Solutions Analysis, RAND Corporation (MG-913), 2010

Thaler, David E., Alireza Nader, Shahram Chubin, Jerrold D. Green, Charlotte Lynch, and Frederic Wehrey, Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics, RAND Corporation (MG-878), 2010

David E. Thaler "Chapter One: The Middle East: The Cradle of the Muslim World," in Rabasa, Angel, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair, Theodore W. Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian O. Lesser, and David E. Thaler, The Muslim World After 9/11, RAND Corporation (MG-246), 2004

Thaler, David E., Strategies to Tasks: A Framework for Linking Means and Ends, RAND Corporation (MR-300), 1993

Kent, Glenn A., David E. Thaler, First-Strike Stability: A Methodology for Evaluating Strategic Forces, RAND Corporation (R-3765), 1989

Commentary

Counterinsurgency

Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.
Aug 12, 2019
Small Wars Journal

Publications

Report
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition
In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.
Apr 6, 2022
Report
Prioritizing Security Cooperation with Highly Capable U.S. Allies: Framing Army-to-Army Partnerships
In this report, researchers present recommendations for enabling the U.S. Army to better prioritize and coordinate its security cooperation activities with its allies for coalition operations and engagements in third countries.
Mar 1, 2022
Report
Proposed Analytical Products for the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability: Developing and Presenting Options for Future Force Design and Capability Development
RAND Project Air Force assisted the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability (AFWIC) in conceptualizing analytical and other products to support concept development, options for future force design, and capability development planning.
Dec 16, 2020
Report
Human Aspects of Air Force Operations: The Roles of Social, Cultural, and Political Knowledge and Skills in the Full Spectrum of Multidomain Operations
The authors examine whether there is a need for a joint warfighting domain focused on human aspects of military operations and consider how sociocultural knowledge and skills could be better integrated into conventional Air Force operations.
Nov 30, 2020
Report
International Postdisaster Recoveries: Lessons for Puerto Rico on Supply-Chain Management and Recovery Governance
The authors analyze supply-chain management and recovery governance in four disaster-ridden countries. Research was conducted in Puerto Rico to assess recovery after Hurricanes Irma and Maria, recommend restorative measures, and improve resilience.
Sep 30, 2020
Report
Sectarianism in the Middle East: Implications for the United States
Many view unrest in the Middle East in the context of religious sectarianism, focusing on the Sunni-Shi'a split. The authors analyze sectarianism in the region and suggest a different interpretation of both identity and the nature of regional unrest.
Aug 30, 2018
Report
Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development
This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.
Apr 19, 2018
Research Brief
Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
This brief summarizes a RAND report that explores lessons that the U.S. Army and the Joint force can draw from Israel's military operations in Gaza from 2009 to 2014 and how Israel adapted to hybrid adversaries in complex urban terrain.
Oct 18, 2017
Report
Follow the Money: Promoting Greater Transparency in Department of Defense Security Cooperation Reporting
This report analyzes the obstacles that the Department of Defense (DoD) faces in tracking security cooperation spending and provides recommendations for streamlining DoD's reporting process to meet new requirements for transparency.
Sep 19, 2017
Report
From Cast Lead to Protective Edge: Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
This report describes how the Israel Defense Force fought an adaptive hybrid adversary in a dense urban setting under intense public scrutiny during its wars in Gaza and draws lessons from the Israeli experience for the U.S. Army and the joint force.
Jul 26, 2017
Report
The Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DMHA): An Assessment of Roles and Missions
This report examines the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance's history, activities, and roles to determine how its missions can best be performed to achieve the Department of Defense's objectives in this domain.
May 16, 2016
Report
From Patchwork to Framework: A Review of Title 10 Authorities for Security Cooperation
This report develops a framework and options to streamline the patchwork of authorities in Public Law and Title 10 of the U.S. Code that the Department of Defense employs in the planning and execution of security cooperation with foreign partners.
Mar 2, 2016
Report
The Days After a Deal with Iran: Implications for the Air Force
This Perspective examines the choices the United States will confront in its policies toward Iran and its regional partners in the event that a final nuclear agreement is reached.
Feb 2, 2015
Report
Improving the U.S. Military's Understanding of Unstable Environments Vulnerable to Violent Extremist Groups: Insights from Social Science
This report identifies and assesses factors that create and perpetuate environments susceptible to insurgency, terrorism, and other extremist violence to inform military decisions on allocation of analytic and security assistance resources.
Jan 16, 2014
Report
Review of Security Cooperation Mechanisms Combatant Commands Utilize to Build Partner Capacity
Security cooperation is an important instrument of the U.S. government for advancing national security objectives vis-à-vis partner countries. RAND examined and evaluated the effectiveness and efficiency of select mechanisms for capacity-building.
Nov 22, 2013
Report
Working with Allies and Partners: A Cost-Based Analysis of U.S. Air Forces in Europe
This report characterizes the current policy debate on security cooperation and force posture in Europe, develops a framework to describe the environment for the U.S. Air Force there, and defines alternatives for building partnerships.
Nov 8, 2012
Report
Building Partner Health Capacity with U.S. Military Forces: Enhancing AFSOC Health Engagement Missions
Planning for, assessing, and enhancing the effectiveness of missions to build health capacity in partner nations -- how U.S. military forces can assist in this important effort.
Aug 8, 2012
Report
The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Iran's commander in chief and highest political authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, plays a critical role in Iran's direction. This monograph explores factors shaping the succession to Khamenei and outlines post-Khamenei scenarios.
Feb 21, 2011
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 34, No. 1, Spring 2010
Features discuss energy strategies for Israel, the economic recession, and Iran's leadership; other items discuss the KC-10 fleet, air pollution and hospital costs, no-fault insurance, silica litigation, poverty reduction, and political polarization.
Apr 9, 2010
Report
Courses of Action for Enhancing U.S. Air Force "Irregular Warfare" Capabilities: A Functional Solutions Analysis
Provides a menu of actions for strengthening and expanding the U.S. Air Force's capabilities to take part in joint and interagency efforts in irregular warfare.
Feb 2, 2010
Report
Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics
The authors describe Iran's strategic culture; investigate the Iranian political system's informal networks, formal institutions, and personalities; assess the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy; and summarize key trends.
Jan 1, 2010
Research Brief
A New U.S. Policy Paradigm Toward Iran
Iranian power projection is marked by strengths, but it also has serious liabilities and limitations. The United States should consider a new approach to Iran that integrates elements of engagement and containment.
May 6, 2009
Report
Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East
Although Iranian power projection in the Middle East is marked by strengths, it also has serious liabilities and limitations. This report surveys the nature of both in four critical areas and offers a new U.S. policy paradigm for Iran.
Apr 14, 2009
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008
The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U.S. president; other pieces discuss education and health in China and India, health policy models, the U.S. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.S. Army, and political reform in the Arab world.
Dec 14, 2008
Research Brief
Flexibility and Sensitivity to Local Concerns Are Crucial to Long-Term U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan
This research brief discusses long-term U.S. security relationships with Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding regions.
Jul 10, 2008
Report
Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan: U.S. Air Force Roles
Frames potential long-term U.S. security relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan in a regional context and posits roles of U.S. forces, especially the Air Force, in supporting these relationships under a variety of contingencies.
Jun 17, 2008
Report
The Muslim World After 9/11
Examines the major dynamics that drive changes in the religio-political landscape of the Muslim world, the effects of 9/11, the global war on terrorism, and the war in Iraq, and their implications for global security and U.S. and Western interests.
Dec 10, 2004
Research Brief
U.S. Strategy in the Muslim World After 9/11
In light of 9/11 and the war on terrorism, it is important for U.S. leaders to develop a shaping strategy toward the Muslim world. This study describes a framework to identify major ideological orientations within Islam, examines critical cleavages b...
2004
Report
Setting Requirements for Maintenance Manpower in the U.S. Air Force
To review the methodology that the Air Force uses to determine active-duty enlisted manpower requirements in aircraft maintenance and to investigate whether these requirements and their resulting authorizations have been underestimated.
2002
Report
Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.
2002
Report
Assessing Unit Readiness: Case Study of an Air Force Mobility Wing
An analysis of the military readiness problems facing air mobility personnel, based on an intensive study of the 60th Air Mobility Wing.
2002
Report
Improving Anti-Drug Budgeting
The United States spends over $16 billion a year to fight drugs, or so the Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) has certified over the past few years.
2000
Report
Assessing Unit Readiness: Case Study of an Air Force Fighter Wing
A broad recipe for assessing readiness involves defining what is "healthy," evaluating the current and future status, and identifying where that status deviates from a healthy state.
2000
Report
To Find, and Not to Yield: How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Theater Warfare
Absent significant changes in U.S. defense investment priorities, American forces could soon find themselves unable to cope with some emerging challenges in large-scale power projection operations.
1998
Report
Air Force Operations Overseas in Peacetime: OPTEMPO and Force Structure Implications
Air Force Operations Overseas in Peacetime: OPTEMPO and Force Structure Implications
1998
Research Brief
How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Warfare
Investigated the potential of new concepts for destroying moving mechanized forces. These new concepts incorporate advanced munitions with systems for theaterwide surveillance and control.
1998
Report
Perspectives on Theater Air Campaign Planning
This report describes the findings of an independent, exploratory look at how the United States Air Force plans and executes air campaigns and operations.
1995
Research Brief
Planning for Theater Air Campaigns
Interviewed planners at U.S. Air Force organizations -- at home and abroad -- to gain insights into air campaign planning and how the process might be improved.
1995
Report
A New Concept for Streamlining Up-Front Planning
DoD processes for enhancing U.S. military capabilities take an inordinate amount of time and energy. In this report, Kent and Thaler propose a framework for streamlining up-front planning.
1993
Report
Strategies to Tasks: A Framework for Linking Means and Ends
Strategies to tasks is a framework for force planning consisting of a hierarchy of objectives.
1993
Report
Back to First Principles: U.S. Strategic Forces in the Emerging Environment
This report presents an approach to thinking about U.S. strategic forces in the 1990s.
1993
Report
First-Strike Stability and Strategic Defenses: Part II of a Methodology for Evaluating Strategic Forces
Extends the methodology developed in R-3765 to assess the effect of BMD deployments on first-strike stability.
1990
Report
First-Strike Stability: A Methodology for Evaluating Strategic Forces
Presents a logical and transparent methodology for evaluating strategic offensive forces on the basis of first-strike stability, which the authors define as a condition that exists when neither superpower perceives the other as motivated by the ...
1989
Report
A Calculus of First-Strike Stability : (A Criterion for Evaluating Strategic Forces)
This Note describes an approach for evaluating the first-strike stability (or instability) of various postures of superpower strategic offensive forces.
1988