Expert Insights

Oct 1, 2026

Policy Analysis in an Age of Technological and Social Transition: Four Futures and an Agenda for the Field

In this watershed moment for policy analysis driven by AI, which has eroded trust in experts and institutions, the field must revisit first principles and use them to guide institutional redesign, policy analysis training, and research governance.

Tim McDonald, Robert J. Lempert, Anita Chandra
Sep 24, 2026

Disconnection Among American Youth: Evidence on Its Duration and Impact on Well-Being

Periods of disconnection (not engaged in education, training, or work) are costly for young people and for society. This paper presents findings from a survey of 349 young adults aged 18 to 22 to inform programs designed for this at-risk population.

Jennie W. Wenger, Stephanie Bonds
Sep 15, 2026

A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence: Maintaining Freedom of Action

Frontier artificial intelligence continues to advance, and many experts contend that superintelligence is possible. The authors recommend a Freedom of Action strategy to secure geopolitical advantage and ensure humanity’s survival with agency.

Joel B. Predd, Benjamin Boudreaux, Matt Chessen, Beba Cibralic, Edward Geist, Kamaria Horton, Amanda Kerrigan, William Marcellino, Shanshan Mei, Jared Mondschein, Alvin Moon, Tobias Sytsma
Sep 15, 2026

Reimagining Air Base Defense in an Era of Drones and Strategic Inflection

The author examines the U.S. Air Force’s challenges and options as it faces emerging aerial threats, especially small drones. The analysis highlights the need for new capabilities, integration, and clear authority to secure future air base defense.

Sean M. Zeigler
Sep 9, 2026

Justice for All: An anthology

This paper draws together the findings of the Justice for All series, reflecting on the contribution of each briefing paper exploring the evidence on the matters under consideration and the key themes that emerge across them.

Lucy Strang
Sep 8, 2026

Russia’s Enduring Role in Latin America and Its Implications for U.S. Hemispheric Interests

The authors examine Russia’s activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, how these efforts have advanced Russia’s strategic aims across the region as a whole and with key partners, and the implications for U.S interests in the Western Hemisphere.

Elina Treyger, Samantha Perez Davila
Sep 2, 2026

Countering Model Distillation: Limits and Alternatives

Artificial intelligence model distillation (training new models on outputs of more capable ones) could affect U.S. frontier model advantage. New policy tools could augment such technical countermeasures as raising costs or reducing model quality.

Michael J. D. Vermeer, Brian A. Jackson
Aug 31, 2026

Tax Policy Options to Promote Employment and Mitigate Federal Revenue Impacts in the Age of AI

AI may lower federal revenue from labor taxes. The authors of this paper propose a six-category framework of tax code reform options that could stabilize revenue and protect jobs.

Carter C. Price, Jeffrey B. Wenger
Aug 27, 2026

Hardening Critical Infrastructure Software in an Era of Rapid AI Advancement: An Urgent Call for Coordinated Action

This paper provides expert analysis on artificial intelligence–accelerated vulnerability discovery and the structural hardening of critical infrastructure software.

Gopal P. Sarma, Rachel Steratore, Sunny D. Bhatt, Greg McKelvey, Jr., Michael Jacob
Aug 18, 2026

Mirror Biology Research: Implications for Operational Governance

The most pressing deficit in the mirror biology research landscape is the gap between its recognition as a governance challenge and the absence of a concerted effort to govern it; the authors develop a preliminary framework to close this gap.

Sana Zakaria, Matthew L. Nicotra, Alec Ross, Rachel Steratore, Chris Carter-Gordon, Tyler Hoard, Gerald L. Epstein
Aug 17, 2026

Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New Methodology to Enhance Decision Advantage

The authors describe the combined methodology of integrated strategic forecasting, a new exploratory approach to futures and anticipatory planning that leverages the unique advantages of scenario planning and crowdsourced forecasting.

Anca Agachi, Miriam Pasternak Joergensen, Molly Hickman
Aug 13, 2026

Exploring AI’s Operational Implications in a Future U.S.-China Conflict: Initial Observations from the Camp(ai)gn Wargame

The wargame Camp(ai)gn explores the military implications of artificial intelligence. This paper presents gameplay observations about how autonomous systems might shape the character of conflict, logic of escalation, and choices facing commanders.

Zachary Burdette, Barry Wilson, David R. Frelinger, Hiwot Demelash, Julia Arnold

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Expert Insights

Error

Policy Analysis in an Age of Technological and Social Transition: Four Futures and an Agenda for the Field

Disconnection Among American Youth: Evidence on Its Duration and Impact on Well-Being

A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence: Maintaining Freedom of Action

Reimagining Air Base Defense in an Era of Drones and Strategic Inflection

Justice for All: An anthology

Russia’s Enduring Role in Latin America and Its Implications for U.S. Hemispheric Interests

Countering Model Distillation: Limits and Alternatives

Tax Policy Options to Promote Employment and Mitigate Federal Revenue Impacts in the Age of AI

Hardening Critical Infrastructure Software in an Era of Rapid AI Advancement: An Urgent Call for Coordinated Action

Mirror Biology Research: Implications for Operational Governance

Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New Methodology to Enhance Decision Advantage

Exploring AI’s Operational Implications in a Future U.S.-China Conflict: Initial Observations from the Camp(ai)gn Wargame

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Expert Insights

Error

Policy Analysis in an Age of Technological and Social Transition: Four Futures and an Agenda for the Field

Disconnection Among American Youth: Evidence on Its Duration and Impact on Well-Being

A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence: Maintaining Freedom of Action

Reimagining Air Base Defense in an Era of Drones and Strategic Inflection

Justice for All: An anthology

Russia’s Enduring Role in Latin America and Its Implications for U.S. Hemispheric Interests

Countering Model Distillation: Limits and Alternatives

Tax Policy Options to Promote Employment and Mitigate Federal Revenue Impacts in the Age of AI

Hardening Critical Infrastructure Software in an Era of Rapid AI Advancement: An Urgent Call for Coordinated Action

Mirror Biology Research: Implications for Operational Governance

Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New Methodology to Enhance Decision Advantage

Exploring AI’s Operational Implications in a Future U.S.-China Conflict: Initial Observations from the Camp(ai)gn Wargame

Oops! An unexpected error has occurred.