David A. Ochmanek

Senior International/Defense Researcher

Washington Office

Education

M.P.A. in international relations, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University; B.S. in international affairs and political science, United States Air Force Academy

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

More Experts

Overview

David Ochmanek is a senior international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. From 2009 until 2014 he was the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Force Development.

Prior to joining the Office of the Secretary of Defense, he was a senior defense analyst and director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program for RAND Project AIR FORCE, where he worked from 1985 until 1993, and again from 1995 until 2009. From 1993 until 1995, Ochmanek served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Strategy.

Prior to joining RAND, he was a member of the Foreign Service of the United States, serving from 1980 to 1985. From 1973 to 1978, he was an officer in the United States Air Force.

Ochmanek is a graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development; Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy

Recent Projects

Assessing Trends in Relative U.S. Overmatch, 2000 -2035
Analytic Support to the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability
A New Force Planning and Sizing Construct for DoD
Airpower and Moscow's Strategy in the Near Abroad

Selected Publications

Hamilton, Thomas, David A. Ochmanek, Operating Low-Cost, Reusable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Contested Environments: Preliminary Evaluation of Operational Concepts, RAND Corporation (RR-4407), 2020

Ochmanek, David A., Restoring U.S. Power Projection Capabilities: Responding to the 2018 National Defense Strategy, RAND Corporation (PE-260-AF), 2018

Ochmanek, David A., Improving Force Development Within the U.S. Department of Defense: Diagnosis and Potential Prescriptions, RAND Corporation (PE-302-RC), 2018

Ochmanek, David A., Peter A. Wilson, Brenna Allen, John Speed Meyers, and Carter C. Price, U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World: Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning, RAND Corporation (RR-1782), 2017

Ochmanek, David A., Sustaining U.S. Leadership in the Asia-Pacific Region: Why a Strategy of Direct Defense Against Antiaccess and Area Denial Threats Is Desirable and Feasible, RAND Corporation (PE-142-OSD), 2015

Languages

German

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: CTV News (Canada); Defence Matters; Foreign Policy; KTRH-AM Online

Commentary

Autonomous Military Vehicles

As F-15s Leave Okinawa, an Opportunity to Change Indo-Pacific Air Tactics with Unmanned Options
As it considers its future force mix and posture in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere, the U.S. Air Force has options that go beyond traditional platforms. Among them are rapidly maturing concepts for generating and sustaining high-tempo operations in forward areas with autonomous, runway-independent air vehicles.
Nov 28, 2022
Breaking Defense
Taiwan

Preventing China from Taking Taiwan
The single most challenging high-end threat to a key American national security interest today is probably a Chinese invasion attempt against Taiwan. The United States could try to make that scenario unthinkable for Beijing by ensuring that China cannot dominate the western Pacific region.
Dec 9, 2021
The Hill
Military Strategy

How the United States Could Lose a Great-Power War
The U.S. armed forces are now preparing for an age of great-power competition and rightly so. The 2018 National Defense Strategy shows the Defense Department is focused on the threats posed by Russia and especially China to U.S. interests, allies, and established partners such as Taiwan. For now, U.S. forces appear poorly postured to meet these challenges.
Oct 30, 2019
Foreign Policy
Military Force Planning

Reshaping U.S. Military Forces: Getting the Process Right
War gaming and analysis show that American forces face serious operational challenges. What steps could be taken to ensure the United States can defeat aggression by its greatest adversaries?
Jul 20, 2018
Defense News
Security Cooperation

A 'Glass Half-Full': Next Steps for Enhancing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
The United States and key allies have taken steps toward redressing the imbalance in military power between NATO and Russia in Northeastern Europe. But NATO's defense planners must be clear-eyed about what remains to be done.
Feb 12, 2018
The RAND Blog
Wargaming

In Defense of a Wargame: Bolstering Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
A series of wargames examined the potential results of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. While such an invasion appears unlikely, its consequences would be so dangerous that not taking steps to deter it more robustly would be imprudent.
Jun 14, 2016
War on the Rocks
Military Budgets and Defense Spending

If We Keep Cutting Defense Spending, We Must Do Less
The United States is underinvesting in defense and other instruments of national influence just when they are most needed. Improving defenses needn't require Cold War levels of expenditure but Americans should look realistically at the demands being placed on their forces and generate the revenues to meet those demands.
Oct 19, 2015
Newsweek
United States Department of Defense

Advice for Defense Innovators
If the U.S. is to retain its status as the security partner of choice for many of the world's most important states, and help sustain peace and stability in regions critical to our own security, future U.S. forces must be far more capable.
Jan 12, 2015
Defense News
Military Force Planning

Real Roles, Missions Debate
The United States can and should move beyond a "one size fits all" approach to sizing military forces toward a construct that shapes each service for the types of operations it is actually expected to conduct in the future, write Andrew Hoehn and David Ochmanek.
Apr 7, 2008
Washington Times
Crafting Terror Strategy
Published commentary by RAND staff: Crafting Terror Strategy, in United Press International.
Oct 18, 2006
United Press International

Publications

Report
The Backbone of U.S. Joint Operations: Army Roles in the Indo-Pacific
The authors of this report seek to provide an engaging and structured illustrated narrative to more clearly describe the U.S. Army's role throughout the Indo-Pacific region in the present day and into 2035.
May 5, 2023
Report
Determining the Military Capabilities Most Needed to Counter China and Russia: A Strategy-Driven Approach
Decisionmakers must make wise choices for investing scarce military resources into capabilities that have the greatest potential to thwart adversaries' designs against the United States. This Perspective offers a blueprint for doing that.
Jun 22, 2022
Report
Is the Defense Acquisition System Postured to Solve National Defense Strategy Operational Problems?
The authors propose assessing the defense acquisition system's ability to overcome the operational problems outlined in the 2018 National Defense Strategy, discuss why the approach is valuable, and suggest next steps.
Sep 20, 2021
Report
A Strong Ally Stretched Thin: An Overview of France's Defense Capabilities from a Burdensharing Perspective
In this report, researchers examine the role that the French military might play as a coalition partner in a hypothetical high-intensity conventional conflict in Europe.
Jun 16, 2021
Report
Operating Low-Cost, Reusable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Contested Environments: Preliminary Evaluation of Operational Concepts
The authors of this report summarize early thinking and analysis about how the U.S. Air Force might employ a force of "attritable"—low-cost and reusable—unmanned aerial vehicles in a demanding conventional warfighting scenario.
May 11, 2020
Report
Enhancing deterrence and defence on NATO's northern flank: Allied perspectives on strategic options for Norway
To inform ongoing strategy and policy development, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence commissioned RAND to gather insights into key allies' perspectives on strategic opportunities and challenges for NATO deterrence and defence in the High North.
Mar 25, 2020
Multimedia
2019 West Coast Aerospace Forum: An Air and Space Force Designed for the Future
The theme of the fifth annual West Coast Aerospace Forum, held on December 6th, 2019, was An Air and Space Force Designed for the Future.
Feb 4, 2020
Report
U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World: Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning
This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of future conflicts and recommends alternative forces that appear to be better suited than today's forces to meeting those demands.
Nov 28, 2018
Report
Restoring U.S. Power Projection Capabilities: Responding to the 2018 National Defense Strategy
This Perspective can help to inform upcoming decisions to improve U.S. military abilities (which have been eroding vis-à-vis those of China and Russia) to deter aggression and intimidation, assure allies, and influence events in East Asia and Europe.
Aug 16, 2018
Report
Improving Force Development Within the U.S. Department of Defense: Diagnosis and Potential Prescriptions
In recent wargames depicting conflicts against the nation's most capable adversaries, U.S. forces have failed to achieve their objectives and suffered heavy losses. This Perspective examines how things got to this point and what can be done about it.
Jul 9, 2018
Testimony
Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy
Testimony presented before the Committee on Armed Services, United States Senate on November 30, 2017.
Nov 30, 2017
Testimony
Restoring the Power Projection Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces
Testimony presented before the Senate Armed Services Committee on February 16, 2017.
Feb 16, 2017
Report
Leveraging the Past to Prepare for the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis
This report describes steps the U.S. Air Force can take to help ensure that it has the capability needed to provide intelligence analysis support to a broad range of service and combatant commander needs.
Apr 27, 2016
Research Brief
America's Security Deficit: Addressing the Imbalance Between Strategy and Resources in a Turbulent World
This research brief summarizes the second volume in RAND's Strategic Rethink series, in which RAND experts offer a detailed analysis of U.S. options for defense strategy in the context of a challenging global security environment.
Oct 19, 2015
Report
America's Security Deficit: Addressing the Imbalance Between Strategy and Resources in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink
Analyzes defense options available to respond to current and emerging threats to U.S. security and interests, focusing on ways to adapt military instruments, defense investments, and defense spending levels commensurate with the interests at stake.
Oct 19, 2015
Report
Choices for America in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink
Exploring the elements of a national strategy for U.S. foreign policy, the book examines critical global, regional, and other policy issues and decisions likely to confront the next president and senior U.S. officials in 2017 and beyond.
Jul 23, 2015
Report
Sustaining U.S. Leadership in the Asia-Pacific Region: Why a Strategy of Direct Defense Against Antiaccess and Area Denial Threats Is Desirable and Feasible
This perspective is intended to contribute to the growing debate over how to respond to recent military advances of potential adversaries by examining a potentially effective and feasible overall military approach to the challenge -- direct defense.
Feb 23, 2015
Testimony
The Role of Maritime and Air Power in DoD's Third Offset Strategy
Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces on December 2, 2014.
Dec 2, 2014
Brochure
Challenges in U.S. National Security Policy: A Festschrift Honoring Edward L. (Ted) Warner
Among Ted Warner's many notable accomplishments, perhaps the most important has been the opportunity to mentor a substantial number of exceptionally talented men and women on various aspects of U.S. and Russian defense and arms control policy.
May 13, 2014
Report
Courses of Action for Enhancing U.S. Air Force "Irregular Warfare" Capabilities: A Functional Solutions Analysis
Provides a menu of actions for strengthening and expanding the U.S. Air Force's capabilities to take part in joint and interagency efforts in irregular warfare.
Feb 2, 2010
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008
The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U.S. president; other pieces discuss education and health in China and India, health policy models, the U.S. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.S. Army, and political reform in the Arab world.
Dec 14, 2008
Report
Thinking About America's Defense: An Analytical Memoir
Lt Gen Glenn A. Kent offers a personal overview of analyses of dozens of historic national security issues drawn from his Air Force and RAND careers spanning the latter half of the 20th century.
Sep 29, 2008
Research Brief
Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: How Deterrable Are They Likely to Be?
This research brief describes a study of nuclear-armed regional adversaries, which suggests that U.S. policymakers and commanders will want to field improved capabilities that can prevent (rather than deter) an enemy's use of nuclear weapons.
Jul 18, 2008
Report
The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries
Deterring nuclear use by regional adversaries such as North Korea could be problematic in some situations. This book examines the strategic and force planning implications of this shift in the international security environment.
Mar 10, 2008
Report
A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq
The promotion of democracy and freedom abroad will continue to require changes in how U.S. armed forces are organized and employed and how the services relate to one another and to U.S. allies.
Apr 8, 2007
Research Brief
America's Security Challenges Require a New Division of Labor Among the Armed Forces
This research brief assesses the primary challenges to U.S. security in the emerging security environment and offers suggestions for how the U.S. strategy and the defense program should be adjusted in order to meet these challenges.
Mar 27, 2007
Report
Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat
Examines the capabilities and costs of onboard technologies to divert or destroy missiles attacking commercial airliners.
Jan 20, 2005
Report
Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups Abroad: Implications for the United States Air Force
Outlines a strategy for U.S. military operations against terrorist groups overseas, including the capabilities that air forces will likely be called upon to deliver.
2003
Report
A Framework for Modernization Within the United States Air Force
Provides a conceptual framework for promoting innovation and modernization of capabilities
2003
Research Brief
Counterterrorist Operations Abroad: Estimating Future Demands on the U.S. Air Force
RAND Project AIR FORCE studied effective counterinsurgency operations to derive concepts for likely U.S. strategy against terrorist groups abroad.
2003
Research Brief
Promoting Innovation and Modernization Within the Air Force
Developed a framework for force modernization that can be used to promote innovation by focusing concept development efforts on key challenges and lending increased coherence to the Air Force's advocacy efforts.
2003
Report
Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.
2002
Report
NATO's Future: Implications for U.S. Military Capabilities and Posture
Events after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War have shown the need for a transformed NATO capable of a wide range of missions.
2000
Report
Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare
This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore the opportunities and vulnerabilities inherent in the increasing reliance on information technology, looking both at its usefulness to the warrior and the need to protect its usefulness for everyone.
1999
Report
To Find, and Not to Yield: How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Theater Warfare
Absent significant changes in U.S. defense investment priorities, American forces could soon find themselves unable to cope with some emerging challenges in large-scale power projection operations.
1998
Report
Defining the Role of Airpower in Joint Missions
The stage is set for the emergence of a "new American way of war," in which U.S. forces are able to bring military power against an enemy state quickly, comprehensively, decisively, and with minimal risk of heavy casualties. But obstacles remain.
1998
Research Brief
How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Warfare
Investigated the potential of new concepts for destroying moving mechanized forces. These new concepts incorporate advanced munitions with systems for theaterwide surveillance and control.
1998
Report
Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning for the 21st Century
This publication brings together the views of several experts in both the process and substance of defense planning.
1997
Research Brief
U.S. Security Needs for the 21st Century
Suggests embarking on a fundamental assessment of U.S. strategy and defense planning--one that takes full advantage of emerging capabilities and exploits technological, organizational, and operational innovations to make a smaller force more capable.
1997
Report
The New Calculus: Analyzing Airpower's Changing Role in Joint Theater Campaigns
This report focuses on means of improving airpower's capabilities in the context of joint operations in future major regional conflicts.
1993
Report
Overhauling the alliance: getting back to basics
This paper describes threats to allied security that may persist at least through the 1990s. It emphasizes that currently fashionable talk about a new "European pillar" to the alliance will not help meet these challenges. Two types of threats persist...
1991
Report
Toward a Stable Transition in Europe: A Conservative/Activist Strategy for the United States
At a time of extraordinary change and uncertainty in European affairs, this analysis urges a conservative/activist strategy for a stable transition to a new Europe.
1990
Report
1986, the year in arms control
The year 1986 was a very active and potentially significant one for arms control. Stockholm agreements were a limited but useful step toward regulating Warsaw Pact and NATO forces. The United States and the Soviet Union met at Reykjavik and worked o...
1987
Report
SDI and/or arms control
This paper suggests a framework that relates U.S. policies regarding the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and arms control to fundamental objectives of U.S. security--deterring aggression and limiting damage should deterrence fail. The paper argue...
1987