David A. Ochmanek

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

U.S. military forces no longer enjoy the kind of comprehensive superiority that was the foundation of victories over adversary states. Re-establishing a credible posture against aggression by highly capable adversaries will call for sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States, its allies, and its key partners to rethink their approaches to defeating aggression and to recast important elements of their military forces and postures.

As F-15s Leave Okinawa, an Opportunity to Change Indo-Pacific Air Tactics with Unmanned Options

As it considers its future force mix and posture in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere, the U.S. Air Force has options that go beyond traditional platforms. Among them are rapidly maturing concepts for generating and sustaining high-tempo operations in forward areas with autonomous, runway-independent air vehicles.

Preventing China from Taking Taiwan

The single most challenging high-end threat to a key American national security interest today is probably a Chinese invasion attempt against Taiwan. The United States could try to make that scenario unthinkable for Beijing by ensuring that China cannot dominate the western Pacific region.

How the United States Could Lose a Great-Power War

The U.S. armed forces are now preparing for an age of great-power competition and rightly so. The 2018 National Defense Strategy shows the Defense Department is focused on the threats posed by Russia and especially China to U.S. interests, allies, and established partners such as Taiwan. For now, U.S. forces appear poorly postured to meet these challenges.

Reshaping U.S. Military Forces: Getting the Process Right

War gaming and analysis show that American forces face serious operational challenges. What steps could be taken to ensure the United States can defeat aggression by its greatest adversaries?

A 'Glass Half-Full': Next Steps for Enhancing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

The United States and key allies have taken steps toward redressing the imbalance in military power between NATO and Russia in Northeastern Europe. But NATO's defense planners must be clear-eyed about what remains to be done.

In Defense of a Wargame: Bolstering Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

A series of wargames examined the potential results of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. While such an invasion appears unlikely, its consequences would be so dangerous that not taking steps to deter it more robustly would be imprudent.

If We Keep Cutting Defense Spending, We Must Do Less

The United States is underinvesting in defense and other instruments of national influence just when they are most needed. Improving defenses needn't require Cold War levels of expenditure but Americans should look realistically at the demands being placed on their forces and generate the revenues to meet those demands.

Advice for Defense Innovators

If the U.S. is to retain its status as the security partner of choice for many of the world's most important states, and help sustain peace and stability in regions critical to our own security, future U.S. forces must be far more capable.

Real Roles, Missions Debate

The United States can and should move beyond a "one size fits all" approach to sizing military forces toward a construct that shapes each service for the types of operations it is actually expected to conduct in the future, write Andrew Hoehn and David Ochmanek.

Crafting Terror Strategy

Published commentary by RAND staff: Crafting Terror Strategy, in United Press International.

Report

Revisiting RAND's Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine: Summary and Implications

This report summarizes reexamined RAND tabletop exercises involving Russia from the past eight years in a review of wargaming methods and analysis and presents implications for future potential conflicts involving major powers.

Report

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. To defeat evolving threats, such as China's broad military modernization and Russia's reconstituted forces, more-coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are required.

Report

The Backbone of U.S. Joint Operations: Army Roles in the Indo-Pacific

The authors of this report seek to provide an engaging and structured illustrated narrative to more clearly describe the U.S. Army's role throughout the Indo-Pacific region in the present day and into 2035.

Commentary

Determining the Military Capabilities Most Needed to Counter China and Russia: A Strategy-Driven Approach

Decisionmakers must make wise choices for investing scarce military resources into capabilities that have the greatest potential to thwart adversaries' designs against the United States. This Perspective offers a blueprint for doing that.

Report

Is the Defense Acquisition System Postured to Solve National Defense Strategy Operational Problems?

The authors propose assessing the defense acquisition system's ability to overcome the operational problems outlined in the 2018 National Defense Strategy, discuss why the approach is valuable, and suggest next steps.

Report

A Strong Ally Stretched Thin: An Overview of France's Defense Capabilities from a Burdensharing Perspective

In this report, researchers examine the role that the French military might play as a coalition partner in a hypothetical high-intensity conventional conflict in Europe.

Report

Operating Low-Cost, Reusable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Contested Environments: Preliminary Evaluation of Operational Concepts

The authors of this report summarize early thinking and analysis about how the U.S. Air Force might employ a force of "attritable"—low-cost and reusable—unmanned aerial vehicles in a demanding conventional warfighting scenario.

Report

Enhancing deterrence and defence on NATO's northern flank: Allied perspectives on strategic options for Norway

To inform ongoing strategy and policy development, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence commissioned RAND to gather insights into key allies' perspectives on strategic opportunities and challenges for NATO deterrence and defence in the High North.

Report

U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World: Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning

This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of future conflicts and recommends alternative forces that appear to be better suited than today's forces to meeting those demands.

Commentary

Restoring U.S. Power Projection Capabilities: Responding to the 2018 National Defense Strategy

This Perspective can help to inform upcoming decisions to improve U.S. military abilities (which have been eroding vis-à-vis those of China and Russia) to deter aggression and intimidation, assure allies, and influence events in East Asia and Europe.

Commentary

Improving Force Development Within the U.S. Department of Defense: Diagnosis and Potential Prescriptions

In recent wargames depicting conflicts against the nation's most capable adversaries, U.S. forces have failed to achieve their objectives and suffered heavy losses. This Perspective examines how things got to this point and what can be done about it.

Testimony

Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy

Testimony presented before the Committee on Armed Services, United States Senate on November 30, 2017.

Testimony

Restoring the Power Projection Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces

Testimony presented before the Senate Armed Services Committee on February 16, 2017.

Report

Leveraging the Past to Prepare for the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis

This report describes steps the U.S. Air Force can take to help ensure that it has the capability needed to provide intelligence analysis support to a broad range of service and combatant commander needs.

Research Brief

America's Security Deficit: Addressing the Imbalance Between Strategy and Resources in a Turbulent World

This research brief summarizes the second volume in RAND's Strategic Rethink series, in which RAND experts offer a detailed analysis of U.S. options for defense strategy in the context of a challenging global security environment.

Report

America's Security Deficit: Addressing the Imbalance Between Strategy and Resources in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink

Analyzes defense options available to respond to current and emerging threats to U.S. security and interests, focusing on ways to adapt military instruments, defense investments, and defense spending levels commensurate with the interests at stake.

Report

Choices for America in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink

Exploring the elements of a national strategy for U.S. foreign policy, the book examines critical global, regional, and other policy issues and decisions likely to confront the next president and senior U.S. officials in 2017 and beyond.

Commentary

Sustaining U.S. Leadership in the Asia-Pacific Region: Why a Strategy of Direct Defense Against Antiaccess and Area Denial Threats Is Desirable and Feasible

This perspective is intended to contribute to the growing debate over how to respond to recent military advances of potential adversaries by examining a potentially effective and feasible overall military approach to the challenge -- direct defense.

Testimony

The Role of Maritime and Air Power in DoD's Third Offset Strategy

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces on December 2, 2014.

Brochure

Challenges in U.S. National Security Policy: A Festschrift Honoring Edward L. (Ted) Warner

Among Ted Warner's many notable accomplishments, perhaps the most important has been the opportunity to mentor a substantial number of exceptionally talented men and women on various aspects of U.S. and Russian defense and arms control policy.

Report

Courses of Action for Enhancing U.S. Air Force "Irregular Warfare" Capabilities: A Functional Solutions Analysis

Provides a menu of actions for strengthening and expanding the U.S. Air Force's capabilities to take part in joint and interagency efforts in irregular warfare.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008

The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U.S. president; other pieces discuss education and health in China and India, health policy models, the U.S. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.S. Army, and political reform in the Arab world.

Report

Thinking About America's Defense: An Analytical Memoir

Lt Gen Glenn A. Kent offers a personal overview of analyses of dozens of historic national security issues drawn from his Air Force and RAND careers spanning the latter half of the 20th century.

Research Brief

Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: How Deterrable Are They Likely to Be?

This research brief describes a study of nuclear-armed regional adversaries, which suggests that U.S. policymakers and commanders will want to field improved capabilities that can prevent (rather than deter) an enemy's use of nuclear weapons.

Report

The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries

Deterring nuclear use by regional adversaries such as North Korea could be problematic in some situations. This book examines the strategic and force planning implications of this shift in the international security environment.

Report

A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq

The promotion of democracy and freedom abroad will continue to require changes in how U.S. armed forces are organized and employed and how the services relate to one another and to U.S. allies.

Research Brief

America's Security Challenges Require a New Division of Labor Among the Armed Forces

This research brief assesses the primary challenges to U.S. security in the emerging security environment and offers suggestions for how the U.S. strategy and the defense program should be adjusted in order to meet these challenges.

Report

Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat

Examines the capabilities and costs of onboard technologies to divert or destroy missiles attacking commercial airliners.

Report

Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups Abroad: Implications for the United States Air Force

Outlines a strategy for U.S. military operations against terrorist groups overseas, including the capabilities that air forces will likely be called upon to deliver.

Report

A Framework for Modernization Within the United States Air Force

Provides a conceptual framework for promoting innovation and modernization of capabilities

Research Brief

Counterterrorist Operations Abroad: Estimating Future Demands on the U.S. Air Force

RAND Project AIR FORCE studied effective counterinsurgency operations to derive concepts for likely U.S. strategy against terrorist groups abroad.

Research Brief

Promoting Innovation and Modernization Within the Air Force

Developed a framework for force modernization that can be used to promote innovation by focusing concept development efforts on key challenges and lending increased coherence to the Air Force's advocacy efforts.

Report

Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century

This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.

Report

NATO's Future: Implications for U.S. Military Capabilities and Posture

Events after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War have shown the need for a transformed NATO capable of a wide range of missions.

Report

Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare

This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore the opportunities and vulnerabilities inherent in the increasing reliance on information technology, looking both at its usefulness to the warrior and the need to protect its usefulness for everyone.

Report

To Find, and Not to Yield: How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Theater Warfare

Absent significant changes in U.S. defense investment priorities, American forces could soon find themselves unable to cope with some emerging challenges in large-scale power projection operations.

Report

Defining the Role of Airpower in Joint Missions

The stage is set for the emergence of a "new American way of war," in which U.S. forces are able to bring military power against an enemy state quickly, comprehensively, decisively, and with minimal risk of heavy casualties. But obstacles remain.

Research Brief

How Advances in Information and Firepower Can Transform Warfare

Investigated the potential of new concepts for destroying moving mechanized forces. These new concepts incorporate advanced munitions with systems for theaterwide surveillance and control.

Report

Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning for the 21st Century

This publication brings together the views of several experts in both the process and substance of defense planning.

Research Brief

U.S. Security Needs for the 21st Century

Suggests embarking on a fundamental assessment of U.S. strategy and defense planning--one that takes full advantage of emerging capabilities and exploits technological, organizational, and operational innovations to make a smaller force more capable.

Report

The New Calculus: Analyzing Airpower's Changing Role in Joint Theater Campaigns

This report focuses on means of improving airpower's capabilities in the context of joint operations in future major regional conflicts.

Report

Overhauling the alliance: getting back to basics

This paper describes threats to allied security that may persist at least through the 1990s. It emphasizes that currently fashionable talk about a new "European pillar" to the alliance will not help meet these challenges. Two types of threats persist...

Report

Toward a Stable Transition in Europe: A Conservative/Activist Strategy for the United States

At a time of extraordinary change and uncertainty in European affairs, this analysis urges a conservative/activist strategy for a stable transition to a new Europe.

Report

1986, the year in arms control

The year 1986 was a very active and potentially significant one for arms control. Stockholm agreements were a limited but useful step toward regulating Warsaw Pact and NATO forces. The United States and the Soviet Union met at Reykjavik and worked o...

Report

SDI and/or arms control

This paper suggests a framework that relates U.S. policies regarding the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and arms control to fundamental objectives of U.S. security--deterring aggression and limiting damage should deterrence fail. The paper argue...