Terrorism Threat Assessment

Domestic Terrorism
commentary
Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Oct 7, 2020
The RAND Blog
The COVID-19 pandemic has roiled the elections. The United States is deeply divided and the political system is polarized. Under these fraught circumstances, even a minor event can have far-reaching repercussions. What are the prospects for domestic terrorism in the context of U.S. elections?
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 23, 2020
The Hill
To keep the jihad going after 9/11, al Qaeda exhorted homegrown terrorists to take up arms in the United States. ISIS later made similar appeals. These calls to arms yielded some plots and a few attacks, but overall, the American jihad was a failure.
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Wildfires
blog
Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 18, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the growing risk of wildfires, how Americans' incomes have grown (or not), workplace screenings for COVID-19 symptoms, and more.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?
Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron @bodinebaron
Sep 11, 2020
The RAND Blog
Government efforts to counter the propaganda and radicalization that lead to violent extremism are becoming more common around the world, but there's little research on whether such programs work. It is critical to conduct more research to tease out which programs are most effective.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?
Colin P. Clarke, Asfandyar Mir
Sep 11, 2020
Foreign Policy
Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Is al Qaida Still a Threat?
Asfandyar Mir, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 9, 2020
Foreign Affairs
Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicals and Violence?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Aug 17, 2020
NBC News THINK
The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further cleaved an already deeply divided society. The conditions facing the United States today are reminiscent of those that gave rise to the radicalism of the 1970s and could once again lead to political violence, including terrorism.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jul 20, 2020
Fox News Channel
Today's self-selecting solo terrorists answer only to their god, whether seeking to destroy all government, pursuing racial separation or genocidal goals, expressing sexual dissatisfaction, or simply wanting to leave their mark. Military operations are irrelevant. This is a deeper societal problem.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The Growing Irrelevance of Organizational Structure for U.S. Domestic Terrorism
Colin P. Clarke, Bruce Hoffman
Jul 2, 2020
The Cipher Brief
For decades, America's primary terrorist threat came from groups based abroad. Today, a new crop of terrorist actors is emerging from within our own borders. Although diverse and for the most part unconnected to each other, they share a common objective of disrupting society and in the process, overturning existing norms if not the entire political, social, and economic order.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent
Colin P. Clarke, Amarnath Amarasingam
Oct 28, 2019
Foreign Policy
The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.
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Terrorism Financing
commentary
A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 25, 2019
Homeland Security Today
Fifty years ago, urban guerrillas in Rio de Janeiro kidnapped the American ambassador to Brazil, setting off a worldwide wave of terrorist kidnappings that continues today. Although few of the terrorist groups that engaged in kidnapping over the past half century have survived, seizing hostages funded their operations and earned them notoriety. And for that reason, it will likely remain a mainstay of the terrorist tool kit.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Terrorist Threat Posed by Neglect and Indifference
Colin P. Clarke
Sep 23, 2019
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Western countries have seemingly washed their hands when it comes to the aftermath of ISIS. By ignoring the threat and leaving it to the Iraqis and Syrian Kurds to deal with European citizens in detention camps, Western nations are helping the terrorists' ideology persist.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again
Colin P. Clarke, Charles Lister
Sep 5, 2019
Foreign Policy
As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity
Nathan Ryan
Jun 3, 2019
The Cipher Brief
The world's attention will be fixed on Japan as it hosts the Rugby World Cup in September and the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Japan's cyber defenses will need to be strong enough to keep attackers out and resilient enough to restore systems should things go wrong.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Baghdadi Resurfaces: What It Means for ISIS's Global Terror Campaign
Colin P. Clarke
May 6, 2019
Los Angeles Times
With last week's release of a video of Abu Bakr Baghdadi, ISIS showed that it's still got some life left—literally. The most important message to take away from the Baghdadi video may be that the Islamic State does not need territory to survive and even thrive.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
What the Baghdadi Video Means
Colin P. Clarke
Apr 30, 2019
Foreign Policy
For the first time in five years, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the reclusive leader of ISIS, appeared on video. Why did he suddenly feel the need to show his face and speak to his followers? The answer concerns how recent events intersect with ISIS's long-term needs.
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Lightening Body Armor

Terrorism Threat Assessment

Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections

The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap

Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?

Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicals and Violence?

Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers

The Growing Irrelevance of Organizational Structure for U.S. Domestic Terrorism

Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent

A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas

The Terrorist Threat Posed by Neglect and Indifference

Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again

Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity

Baghdadi Resurfaces: What It Means for ISIS's Global Terror Campaign

What the Baghdadi Video Means

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