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Terrorism Threat Assessment

Counterterrorism
commentary
When the Car Is a Terror Weapon, Can We Prepare for Attacks?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Aug 18, 2017
The Globe and Mail
Soft targets, so-called because they are more vulnerable to terrorism due to lower levels of security, are notoriously difficult to protect, and the latest shift to using vehicles to conduct ramming attacks only compounds the problem for authorities.
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Information Operations
commentary
The Islamic State May Be Failing, but Its Strategic Communications Legacy Is Here to Stay
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Charlie Winter
Aug 17, 2017
War on the Rocks
The Islamic State's caliphate is collapsing but its legacy will live on virtually because of its information operations. The scale of the menace presented by the group today pales in comparison to other global challenges, yet it manages to dominate and terrorize the public mind.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Will al Qaeda Make a Comeback?
Seth G. Jones @SethGJones
Aug 7, 2017
Foreign Affairs
Al Qaeda's revival will likely hinge on its ability to take advantage of opportunities such as the withdrawal of counterterrorism forces from key battlefields, more revolt in the Middle East, U.S. or European policies that feed the perception of Muslim oppression, or the rise of a charismatic jihadist leader.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 22, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?
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Bioterrorism
commentary
A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a Second Look
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Jun 7, 2017
The Hill
President Trump's proposed budget would close a laboratory dedicated to countering bioterrorism and providing the science behind bioterrorism response and recovery. Policymakers should assess whether the lab's capabilities are worth the price when weighed against the potential cost of a bioterror attack.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Assessing U.S. Terrorism Challenges Around the Globe
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 13, 2017
The Strategist
For the United States, countering terrorism saw both progress and setbacks in 2016. The U.S. will need to keep pace with terrorist abilities to adapt to its countermeasures while maintaining a high operational tempo punctuated by aggressive counterterrorism strikes.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Two Very Different Views of Terrorism and What to Do About Them
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Apr 6, 2017
The National Interest
Does the public want fewer government initiatives aimed at fighting terrorism, or more? The answer could lie in the type of attack involved as well as in individual perceptions of risk and how much inconvenience people are willing to accept in the name of public safety.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Attacks on Russia Will Only Increase
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 4, 2017
The Atlantic
As Russia gets more involved with the Syrian civil war, it's likely that Sunni militants will intensify their campaign against Russia. But the key reason why Sunni attacks on Russia proper will increase is the fallout between Sunni jihadists in the Caucasus — namely, the al-Qaeda-linked Caucasus Emirate and the ISIS-linked Wilayat Qawqaz.
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Terrorist Bombings
commentary
How Russia Became the Jihadists' No. 1 Target
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 3, 2017
Politico
Russia is fast replacing the United States as the number-one enemy of Al Qaeda, ISIS, and other Sunni jihadist groups motivated by violent and puritanical Salafist ideology. This shift is rooted in recent Russian actions in the Middle East.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Al Qaeda in Syria Can Change Its Name, but Not Its Stripes
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Mar 23, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Al Qaeda in Syria, by any name, remains a dangerous and capable terrorist organization with the ability to conduct attacks in the West. Those seeking to grapple with the threat the group poses should focus less on its names and more on its actions.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Taking the 'Terror' Out of Terrorism Requires Outsmarting Fear
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Mar 16, 2017
United Press International
Terrorism aims to create terror. Building an effective counterterror strategy could help society understand how terrorism works, then work together toward a psychologically more resilient and less vulnerable mindset.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Feb 10, 2017
The Hill
It's not unreasonable to seek a review of immigration, and refugee-vetting procedures make sense. But America's jihadist terrorists are not imported from abroad. They are mostly homegrown.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy Must Be About More Than ISIS
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Chad C. Serena
Feb 9, 2017
Defense One
ISIS is a worthy candidate for eradication, but failing to also target its franchises, al-Qaida splinters, and other non-aligned groups in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia could allow other threats to metastasize.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Need for a Targeted Counter-ISIL Strategy
Jeffrey Martini, Lynn E. Davis
Feb 5, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Defeating ISIL is only possible if political conditions change in the Middle East, North and West Africa, and South Asia, and in ways that are exceedingly unlikely. The coalition should focus on reducing ISIL's ability to conduct attacks and on removing the underlying conditions that feed Sunni grievances.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Is ISIS Breaking Apart?
Charlie Winter, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jan 31, 2017
Foreign Affairs
The coalition tasked with countering ISIS has made progress, and ISIS is sure to break apart further over the next few years. Any splinter groups that result could differ from their parent organization, so counterterrorism strategies will need to adjust.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
When Is a Terrorist Really a Terrorist?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 27, 2017
The Hill
Countering mass violence demands a distinction between attackers who are truly inspired by jihadism and those with lesser links. The latter includes people whose mental states and violent tendencies preexist their exposure to the ideology.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment

When the Car Is a Terror Weapon, Can We Prepare for Attacks?

The Islamic State May Be Failing, but Its Strategic Communications Legacy Is Here to Stay

Will al Qaeda Make a Comeback?

Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?

A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a Second Look

Assessing U.S. Terrorism Challenges Around the Globe

Two Very Different Views of Terrorism and What to Do About Them

Attacks on Russia Will Only Increase

How Russia Became the Jihadists' No. 1 Target

Al Qaeda in Syria Can Change Its Name, but Not Its Stripes

Taking the 'Terror' Out of Terrorism Requires Outsmarting Fear

Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home

U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy Must Be About More Than ISIS

The Need for a Targeted Counter-ISIL Strategy

Is ISIS Breaking Apart?

When Is a Terrorist Really a Terrorist?

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