Terrorism Threat Assessment

Military Doctrine
commentary
The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning
Marek N. Posard @mnposard, William Marcellino, Todd C. Helmus @Helmus
May 20, 2021
Military Times
U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.
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Violent Extremism
commentary
Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
May 14, 2021
NBC News THINK
The righteous wrath of those who view January 6 as an insurrection and believe we need uncompromising prosecution is understandable. But is it strategic thinking? History has shown that prosecutions based on less severe and politically-fraught charges have a greater chance of resulting in the convictions needed to stop this behavior.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military
Heather J. Williams
Feb 1, 2021
Defense One
The military has a growing extremism problem because America does. Service members who embrace violent extremism are thankfully few; Americans citizens who do so are sadly far too many. As a nation we need to deal with both.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Feb 1, 2021
The Hill
The beliefs driving today's domestic extremists are deeply rooted in American history and society. For this and several other reasons, shutting them down will prove far more difficult than combating homegrown jihadists.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The Battle of Capitol Hill
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 11, 2021
The Hill
The deadly mob assault on the U.S. Capitol Building was a predictable possibility. Democracy held, but security failed, spectacularly. We need to be better prepared for future acts of political violence.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Oct 7, 2020
The RAND Blog
The COVID-19 pandemic has roiled the elections. The United States is deeply divided and the political system is polarized. Under these fraught circumstances, even a minor event can have far-reaching repercussions. What are the prospects for domestic terrorism in the context of U.S. elections?
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 23, 2020
The Hill
To keep the jihad going after 9/11, al Qaeda exhorted homegrown terrorists to take up arms in the United States. ISIS later made similar appeals. These calls to arms yielded some plots and a few attacks, but overall, the American jihad was a failure.
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Wildfires
blog
Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 18, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the growing risk of wildfires, how Americans' incomes have grown (or not), workplace screenings for COVID-19 symptoms, and more.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?
Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron @bodinebaron
Sep 11, 2020
The RAND Blog
Government efforts to counter the propaganda and radicalization that lead to violent extremism are becoming more common around the world, but there's little research on whether such programs work. It is critical to conduct more research to tease out which programs are most effective.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?
Colin P. Clarke, Asfandyar Mir
Sep 11, 2020
Foreign Policy
Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Is al Qaida Still a Threat?
Asfandyar Mir, Colin P. Clarke
Sep 9, 2020
Foreign Affairs
Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicals and Violence?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Aug 17, 2020
NBC News THINK
The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further cleaved an already deeply divided society. The conditions facing the United States today are reminiscent of those that gave rise to the radicalism of the 1970s and could once again lead to political violence, including terrorism.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jul 20, 2020
Fox News Channel
Today's self-selecting solo terrorists answer only to their god, whether seeking to destroy all government, pursuing racial separation or genocidal goals, expressing sexual dissatisfaction, or simply wanting to leave their mark. Military operations are irrelevant. This is a deeper societal problem.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The Growing Irrelevance of Organizational Structure for U.S. Domestic Terrorism
Colin P. Clarke, Bruce Hoffman
Jul 2, 2020
The Cipher Brief
For decades, America's primary terrorist threat came from groups based abroad. Today, a new crop of terrorist actors is emerging from within our own borders. Although diverse and for the most part unconnected to each other, they share a common objective of disrupting society and in the process, overturning existing norms if not the entire political, social, and economic order.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent
Colin P. Clarke, Amarnath Amarasingam
Oct 28, 2019
Foreign Policy
The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.
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Terrorism Financing
commentary
A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 25, 2019
Homeland Security Today
Fifty years ago, urban guerrillas in Rio de Janeiro kidnapped the American ambassador to Brazil, setting off a worldwide wave of terrorist kidnappings that continues today. Although few of the terrorist groups that engaged in kidnapping over the past half century have survived, seizing hostages funded their operations and earned them notoriety. And for that reason, it will likely remain a mainstay of the terrorist tool kit.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment

The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning

Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process

How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military

Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists

The Battle of Capitol Hill

Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections

The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap

Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?

Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicals and Violence?

Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers

The Growing Irrelevance of Organizational Structure for U.S. Domestic Terrorism

Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent

A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas

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