Terrorism Threat Assessment

Counterterrorism
commentary
After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Aug 3, 2022
Newsweek
The U.S. drone strike that killed Al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.
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Crime and Violence Prevention
commentary
States Have Leading Role to Play in Preventing Mass Shootings
Katya Migacheva, Jordan R. Reimer @Jordan_R_Reimer
Jun 13, 2022
Route Fifty
As the United States grapples with how to prevent mass shootings, state governments might be best positioned to take the lead on long-term, sustainable efforts that prevent targeted violence.
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Violent Extremism
essay
How to Avoid Extremism on Social Media
May 3, 2022
Extremist groups have been trolling the internet for decades, and they have learned to temper their words and disguise their intentions. A new scorecard can help users—or parents, or advertisers, or the social media companies themselves—understand when they might be interacting with extremist content.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
blog
Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge
Mar 9, 2022
In the early 1970s, amid a worldwide rash of bombings, hijackings, and hostage-takings, RAND researchers began creating the first international database of terrorist incidents. Maintained until 2009, it chronicles more than 40,000 terrorist attacks since 1968.
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Information Operations
blog
News Manipulation, the Risk of Civil War, Russia and Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap
Nov 19, 2021
This weekly recap focuses on tracking news manipulation during the pandemic, the threat of another civil war, preventing health insurance loss, and more.
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Violent Extremism
commentary
Politicians Face Violence and Threats from Voters—and Each Other. Are We Nearing a Civil War?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Nov 15, 2021
NBC News Think
Does America's increasingly uncivil behavior mean we are heading toward civil war? The historical record seems to indicate that the country has a high tolerance for violence without breaking apart. But the threat of civil wars cannot be dismissed.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Defining 'Terrorism' Is the First Step to Defeating It
Diana Dascalu, Benedict Wilkinson
Nov 8, 2021
The National Interest
Western policy- and decisionmakers continue to grapple with how to define acts of terrorism and when it is appropriate to bring terrorism charges. Establishing a consensus on the definition of terrorism and bringing to center stage the importance of adequately charging acts of terrorism could be more important than ever.
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Military Doctrine
commentary
The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning
Marek N. Posard @mnposard, William Marcellino, Todd C. Helmus @Helmus
May 20, 2021
Military Times
U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.
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Violent Extremism
commentary
Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
May 14, 2021
NBC News THINK
The righteous wrath of those who view January 6 as an insurrection and believe we need uncompromising prosecution is understandable. But is it strategic thinking? History has shown that prosecutions based on less severe and politically-fraught charges have a greater chance of resulting in the convictions needed to stop this behavior.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military
Heather J. Williams
Feb 1, 2021
Defense One
The military has a growing extremism problem because America does. Service members who embrace violent extremism are thankfully few; Americans citizens who do so are sadly far too many. As a nation we need to deal with both.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Feb 1, 2021
The Hill
The beliefs driving today's domestic extremists are deeply rooted in American history and society. For this and several other reasons, shutting them down will prove far more difficult than combating homegrown jihadists.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The Battle of Capitol Hill
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 11, 2021
The Hill
The deadly mob assault on the U.S. Capitol Building was a predictable possibility. Democracy held, but security failed, spectacularly. We need to be better prepared for future acts of political violence.
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Oct 7, 2020
The RAND Blog
The COVID-19 pandemic has roiled the elections. The United States is deeply divided and the political system is polarized. Under these fraught circumstances, even a minor event can have far-reaching repercussions. What are the prospects for domestic terrorism in the context of U.S. elections?
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Domestic Terrorism
commentary
The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 23, 2020
The Hill
To keep the jihad going after 9/11, al Qaeda exhorted homegrown terrorists to take up arms in the United States. ISIS later made similar appeals. These calls to arms yielded some plots and a few attacks, but overall, the American jihad was a failure.
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Wildfires
blog
Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap
Sep 18, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the growing risk of wildfires, how Americans' incomes have grown (or not), workplace screenings for COVID-19 symptoms, and more.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?
Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron @bodinebaron
Sep 11, 2020
The RAND Blog
Government efforts to counter the propaganda and radicalization that lead to violent extremism are becoming more common around the world, but there's little research on whether such programs work. It is critical to conduct more research to tease out which programs are most effective.
Read More »

Page 1 of 13

…

Quoted

The strength of NATO is that it is at its essence an ongoing consultation based on trust, and where needed a central meeting point for smaller groups of allies to collaborate on an issue-by-issue basis. Finland and Sweden could benefit by working from the outset to advance the dialogue, express their interests, and help to shape what can be a stronger, smarter NATO.

Gene Germanovich

International Defense Researcher

Source: United Press International

The world is two-and-a-half years into COVID-19, facing another international and national emerging infectious disease outbreak with monkey pox, and experts have warned that such diseases are only becoming more likely. A serious reckoning beginning with a 9/11-like commission for COVID-19 could be undertaken to develop a system for preparing for and responding to emerging infectious diseases. Relying on “ad hoc-ery” may not be the best option.

Daniel M. Gerstein

Senior Policy Researcher

Source: The Hill

North Korean Sanctions Evasion

Hypothetical Scenarios of U.S.-China Conflict

Learning, Relearning, and Not Learning the Lessons of COVID-19

Finnish and Swedish NATO Membership: Toward a Larger, Stronger, Smarter Alliance

Three Steps to Protect Communities from Climate Change

The Policy Currents Podcast

Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK

Managing Escalation in Crisis and War

Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs

Planning for the Rising Costs of Dementia

Terrorism Threat Assessment

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

States Have Leading Role to Play in Preventing Mass Shootings

How to Avoid Extremism on Social Media

Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge

News Manipulation, the Risk of Civil War, Russia and Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

Politicians Face Violence and Threats from Voters—and Each Other. Are We Nearing a Civil War?

Defining 'Terrorism' Is the First Step to Defeating It

The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning

Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process

How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military

Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists

The Battle of Capitol Hill

Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections

The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap

Are Counter Violent Extremism Interventions Effective?

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