Terrorism Threat Assessment

commentary

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

commentary

States Have Leading Role to Play in Preventing Mass Shootings

As the United States grapples with how to prevent mass shootings, state governments might be best positioned to take the lead on long-term, sustainable efforts that prevent targeted violence.

Katya Migacheva, Jordan R. Reimer

essay

How to Avoid Extremism on Social Media

Extremist groups have been trolling the internet for decades, and they have learned to temper their words and disguise their intentions. A new scorecard can help users—or parents, or advertisers, or the social media companies themselves—understand when they might be interacting with extremist content.

blog

Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge

In the early 1970s, amid a worldwide rash of bombings, hijackings, and hostage-takings, RAND researchers began creating the first international database of terrorist incidents. Maintained until 2009, it chronicles more than 40,000 terrorist attacks since 1968.

blog

News Manipulation, the Risk of Civil War, Russia and Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on tracking news manipulation during the pandemic, the threat of another civil war, preventing health insurance loss, and more.

commentary

Politicians Face Violence and Threats from Voters—and Each Other. Are We Nearing a Civil War?

Does America's increasingly uncivil behavior mean we are heading toward civil war? The historical record seems to indicate that the country has a high tolerance for violence without breaking apart. But the threat of civil wars cannot be dismissed.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Defining 'Terrorism' Is the First Step to Defeating It

Western policy- and decisionmakers continue to grapple with how to define acts of terrorism and when it is appropriate to bring terrorism charges. Establishing a consensus on the definition of terrorism and bringing to center stage the importance of adequately charging acts of terrorism could be more important than ever.

Diana Dascalu, Benedict Wilkinson

commentary

The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning

U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.

Marek N. Posard @mnposard, William Marcellino, et al.

commentary

Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process

The righteous wrath of those who view January 6 as an insurrection and believe we need uncompromising prosecution is understandable. But is it strategic thinking? History has shown that prosecutions based on less severe and politically-fraught charges have a greater chance of resulting in the convictions needed to stop this behavior.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military

The military has a growing extremism problem because America does. Service members who embrace violent extremism are thankfully few; Americans citizens who do so are sadly far too many. As a nation we need to deal with both.

Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill

commentary

Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists

The beliefs driving today's domestic extremists are deeply rooted in American history and society. For this and several other reasons, shutting them down will prove far more difficult than combating homegrown jihadists.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

The Battle of Capitol Hill

The deadly mob assault on the U.S. Capitol Building was a predictable possibility. Democracy held, but security failed, spectacularly. We need to be better prepared for future acts of political violence.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections

The COVID-19 pandemic has roiled the elections. The United States is deeply divided and the political system is polarized. Under these fraught circumstances, even a minor event can have far-reaching repercussions. What are the prospects for domestic terrorism in the context of U.S. elections?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

commentary

The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

To keep the jihad going after 9/11, al Qaeda exhorted homegrown terrorists to take up arms in the United States. ISIS later made similar appeals. These calls to arms yielded some plots and a few attacks, but overall, the American jihad was a failure.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

blog

Wildfires, America's Wealth Gap, Screening for COVID-19 at Work: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the growing risk of wildfires, how Americans' incomes have grown (or not), workplace screenings for COVID-19 symptoms, and more.