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Terrorism Threat Assessment

The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Amarnath Amarasingam
Oct 28, 2019
Foreign Policy
The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.
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Terrorism Financing
commentary
A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Sep 25, 2019
Homeland Security Today
Fifty years ago, urban guerrillas in Rio de Janeiro kidnapped the American ambassador to Brazil, setting off a worldwide wave of terrorist kidnappings that continues today. Although few of the terrorist groups that engaged in kidnapping over the past half century have survived, seizing hostages funded their operations and earned them notoriety. And for that reason, it will likely remain a mainstay of the terrorist tool kit.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
The Terrorist Threat Posed by Neglect and Indifference
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Sep 23, 2019
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Western countries have seemingly washed their hands when it comes to the aftermath of ISIS. By ignoring the threat and leaving it to the Iraqis and Syrian Kurds to deal with European citizens in detention camps, Western nations are helping the terrorists' ideology persist.
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Al Qaida
commentary
Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke, Charles Lister
Sep 5, 2019
Foreign Policy
As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?
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Cybersecurity
commentary
Japan Prepares for Olympic-Level Cybersecurity
Nathan Ryan
Jun 3, 2019
The Cipher Brief
The world's attention will be fixed on Japan as it hosts the Rugby World Cup in September and the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. Japan's cyber defenses will need to be strong enough to keep attackers out and resilient enough to restore systems should things go wrong.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Baghdadi Resurfaces: What It Means for ISIS's Global Terror Campaign
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
May 6, 2019
Los Angeles Times
With last week's release of a video of Abu Bakr Baghdadi, ISIS showed that it's still got some life left—literally. The most important message to take away from the Baghdadi video may be that the Islamic State does not need territory to survive and even thrive.
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The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
What the Baghdadi Video Means
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Apr 30, 2019
Foreign Policy
For the first time in five years, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the reclusive leader of ISIS, appeared on video. Why did he suddenly feel the need to show his face and speak to his followers? The answer concerns how recent events intersect with ISIS's long-term needs.
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Health Care Costs
blog
ISIS, Women's Day, Army Privates: RAND Weekly Recap
Mar 8, 2019
This weekly recap focuses on what to do about ISIS detainees, stories from the Army's junior ranks, International Women's Day, and more.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Leaving ISIS Detainees in the Desert Doesn't Serve U.S. Interests
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Mar 5, 2019
The Hill
Leaving ISIS detainees in the desert may sound like an apt punishment, but it's dangerous. Repatriation and prosecution could help ensure ISIS volunteers don't scatter to other jihadist fronts.
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Counterterrorism
commentary
To Ensure Deradicalisation Programmes Are Effective, Better Evaluation Practices Must First Be Implemented
Antonia Ward
Mar 4, 2019
Georgetown Security Studies Review
Given the increasing number of ISIS foreign fighters seeking re-entry into the UK, a better understanding of deradicalization programs is essential. More robust and transparent evaluation processes for intervention programs should be implemented before confidence in their effectiveness can be established.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
A New Framework for Evaluating Counter Violent Extremism Projects
Ben Baruch @Ben_Baruch_
Feb 15, 2019
The RAND Blog
Gathering evidence in the area of counter violent extremism (CVE) is vital, given the increasing role for CVE interventions in the political and security environment. Evaluations of these interventions can play a role in growing this knowledge, by helping the CVE field itself to develop.
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Crime and Violence Prevention
commentary
Suppressing Motivation, Legitimacy Can Help Avoid Political Violence
John S. Hollywood
Nov 28, 2018
United Press International
The threat of political violence is real and growing, but there are concrete things that can be done to reduce the risks. Solutions might include repeated statements from leaders that fear of people because of their ethnicity, religion, party, or social grouping is wrong and that violence against them is illegitimate and against American values.
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Counterterrorism
blog
Reflecting on the Past to Counter Future Terrorism
Nov 14, 2018
One Night with RAND brought together leaders in business, government, academia, and philanthropy to pay tribute to Brian Michael Jenkins and mark his 50-year affiliation with RAND and his substantial body of research on terrorism. Jenkins and other experts discussed the evolution of terrorism and strategies for countering it in the future.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
In Refugee Vetting, How Good Is Good Enough?
Ian Mitch @IanSMitch
Nov 1, 2018
The National Interest
A security policy that depends too heavily on vetting, and expects it to be foolproof, is likely to fall short. A better security standard the administration could consider is not whether vetting failures ever occur, but rather whether they pose an acceptable risk to the United States.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Approaching a 'New Normal': What the Drone Attack in Venezuela Portends
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Aug 13, 2018
Foreign Policy Research Institute
The attempt to assassinate Venezuelan President Maduro showed that drones are easy to use and difficult to defend against. Commercial off-the-shelf technology is easy to acquire. It is imperative that counterterrorism specialists begin planning a robust response to the threat.
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Terrorism Threat Assessment
commentary
Toy Drones and Twitter: The Ability of Individuals to Wreak Large-Scale Havoc
Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jun 18, 2018
The National Interest
Lone wolves or small groups could use drones, virtual currencies, encrypted communications, and artificial intelligence for nefarious purposes. The threat is even greater when these technologies are used in conjunction with disinformation spread over social media.
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