Edward Geist — Publications
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The Ecology of AI Risk
2026
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Evaluating Large Language Models' Abilities to Process and Understand Technical Policy Reports
2026
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Finding Common Ground in AGI Strategy Debates: A Diagnosis and Prescription
2026
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How Artificial Intelligence Could Reshape Four Essential Competitions in Future Warfare
2026
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Preventing the Creation of Mirror Life: A Strategy for the United States
2026
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A U.S. Strategy to Prevent the Creation of Mirror Life
2026
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A U.S. Strategy to Secure Geopolitical Advantage on an Uncertain Path to Superintelligence: Maintaining Freedom of Action
2026
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Insights from Nuclear History for AI Governance
2025
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The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER): Theoretical Introduction and Background
2025
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The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER): User Guide for Version 1.0
2025
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Thinking Through Protracted War with China: Nine Scenarios
2025
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What Even Superintelligent Computers Can’t Do: A Preliminary Framework for Identifying Fundamental Limits Constraining Artificial General Intelligence
2025
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Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold: Vol. 1, An Overview of Ideas for U.S. Conventional Joint Long-Range Strike in Support of Escalation Management
2024
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Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold: Vol. 4, Imagining Escalation Pathways to Chinese Nuclear First Use Via Analytic Strategic Theory, Historical Case Studies, and an Original Analytic Framework
2024
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Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold: Vol. 2, Surveying U.S. Conventional Joint Long-Range Strike Capabilities, Operational Objectives, and Employment Decisions
2024
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Understanding the Limits of Artificial Intelligence for Warfighters: Volume 1, Summary
2024
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Understanding the Limits of Artificial Intelligence for Warfighters: Volume 4, Wargames
2024
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Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare
2023
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Opportunities and Risks of 5G Military Use in Europe
2023
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Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations
2023
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Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends
2023
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Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications
2023
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Qualities Precede Quantities: Deciding How Much Is Enough for U.S. Nuclear Forces
2023
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Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches
2022
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Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
2022
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Emerging Technology Beyond 2035: Scenario-Based Technology Assessment for Future Military Contingencies
2022
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Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability
2022
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Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War
2022
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Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
2021
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Competing with Russia Militarily: Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts
2021
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Defense Acquisition in Russia and China
2021
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The Department of Defense's Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations for Improvement
2021
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Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations
2021
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Exploring the Feasibility and Utility of Machine Learning-Assisted Command and Control: Volume 2, Supporting Technical Analysis
2021
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Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
2021
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Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 2, Technical Analysis and Supporting Material
2021
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Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Volume 1, Findings and Recommendations
2021
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Counter-Radicalization Bot Research: Using Social Bots to Fight Violent Extremism
2020
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Characteristics of Successful U.S. Military Interventions
2019
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The Department of Defense Posture for Artificial Intelligence: Assessment and Recommendations
2019
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Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
2019
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Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
2019
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The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
2019
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Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options
2019
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Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria
2019
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What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?
2019
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How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?
2018
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Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements
2017
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Technological Lessons from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident
2016
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Overcoming Obstacles to Advanced Reactor Technologies
2015
