Michael J. Mazarr

@MMazarr on Twitter

Senior Political Scientist

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in public policy, University of Maryland; MA in security studies, Georgetown University; BA in government, Georgetown University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Michael J. Mazarr is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Previously he worked at the U.S. National War College, where he was professor and associate dean of academics; as president of the Henry L. Stimson Center; senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; senior defense aide on Capitol Hill; and as a special assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. His primary interests are U.S. defense policy and force structure, disinformation and information manipulation, East Asian security, nuclear weapons and deterrence, and judgment and decisionmaking under uncertainty. Mazarr holds a Ph.D. in public policy from the University of Maryland.

Research Focus

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Bearing Drift; BNN/Business News Network Online; CBS News Online; Center for Strategic and International Studies; Chicago Council on Global Affairs; Formiche; Government Matters; History Does You; Korea Herald Online; Kristendom.dk; Lowy Institute for International Policy; MSNBC; Niskanen Center; Reconsider Podcast; Sinica Podcast; The Smerconish Podcast, SiriusXM; War on the Rocks; The World, PRI; WhoWhatWhy

Commentary

International Diplomacy

The Wisdom of U.S. Restraint on Russia
The United States has been gradually increasing assistance to Ukraine without provoking a wider war. Although this approach has frustrated Ukrainian leaders and many observers, it reflects the best traditions of Cold War–era crisis diplomacy—pursuing U.S. interests while avoiding a direct clash with a rival, always with an eye on the long term.
Sep 12, 2022
Foreign Affairs
International Diplomacy

How to Save the Postwar Order
For the last decade or so, debate has raged among scholars and policymakers about the significance of the post–World War II, rules-based international order. Is it a feeble myth, or is it a powerful influence on state behavior? Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the global response to it has put these competing claims into sharp relief.
May 6, 2022
Foreign Affairs
International Diplomacy

Duty Bound to Disaster: Beware the Imperative in Foreign Policymaking
Appeals for bolder action in Ukraine will understandably only grow more intense as the appalling humanitarian toll mounts. But imperative-driven action almost always leads countries astray—and in the days and weeks ahead, it will be critical for the United States to stay alert for its symptoms.
Mar 22, 2022
War on the Rocks
China

Shaping China's Ambitions
Managing a rivalry with a regionally ambitious, globally engaged peer competitor of China's economic heft and technological sophistication will be one of the most profound strategic tests the United States has ever faced. A major lesson from its last global rivalry is that mistaken impressions about the nature of the rival and the character of the rivalry can create momentum for dangerous policies.
Jan 24, 2022
9DASHLINE.com
International Diplomacy

Avoiding a New Surge of Regime Change
As competition with China in the developing world heats up, the United States need not repeat the sad legacy of the Cold War with a surge of new efforts at covert regime change and harassment. Instead, America could maximize the systemic advantages it has long enjoyed, meet reformist leaders and movements in the developing world on their own terms, and trust the long-term appeal of American norms and values.
Dec 8, 2021
Modern War Institute at West Point
Taiwan

Can the United States Avoid Getting Trapped in a War Over Taiwan?
Neither abandonment nor a more unconditional U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan from invasion by China makes sense. Between the stark choices of fleeing and fighting, what options does the United States have to bolster its position?
Jun 14, 2021
Australian Financial Review
Globalization

Humility and Limits
When it spurns global institutions and norms and throws its considerable military weight around, the United States destroys its greatest competitive advantage—the prized role as the hub of a predominant network of global power.
Feb 9, 2021
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Globalization

Lead from Behind
Support for a reformed rules-based order may be the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. But the word “reformed” is crucial in that statement. The U.S. approach to strengthening global order will have to change in ways that will sit uneasily with the expectations and habits of the world's leading power.
Feb 9, 2021
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Taiwan

Ambiguity Has Its Uses
As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.
Sep 24, 2020
Foreign Affairs
United States

Power and Legitimacy Go Hand in Hand
The United States has a truly distinct approach to power which has made all the difference in the post-war world. We abandon it at our peril.
Feb 21, 2020
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
China

The Real U.S.-China Competition: Theories of Influence
Strategic competition between the United States and China has come to dominate U.S. foreign policy debates. That competition is multifaceted, but it may turn on a basic question: Which country has a more sustainable concept of national influence?
Jan 29, 2020
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
Warfare and Military Operations

Changing the Way America Goes to War
America's vast power, and the weakness of most of its enemies, has allowed it to get away with a striking absence of deliberative judgment when deciding on war, as the Iraq case makes clear. But that free pass is coming to an end. It's time for the United States to rethink the way it decides on wars of choice.
Jun 25, 2019
Fox News Channel
Geopolitical Strategic Competition

This Is Not a Great-Power Competition
The emerging conventional wisdom among foreign policy analysts in Washington is that a new era of great-power competition is upon us. But does that phrase really capture today's reality?
May 29, 2019
Foreign Affairs
Warfare and Military Operations

Yes, the U.S. Could Be Drawn Into Yet Another Big War
The outcome of the Iraq invasion has done little to alter the factors that have led American leaders and the public into unwise military adventures. Today's big idea of America's mission is not so different from what it was in 2003. Any number of events could spark a new moral imperative to act.
Apr 19, 2019
The Wall Street Journal
North Korea

The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge
In an era of global competition in which U.S. military resources are stretched thin, the United States should consider looking for opportunities to scale back potential overcommitment. The current inter-Korean dialogue presents such an opportunity.
Mar 12, 2019
The National Interest
International Diplomacy

The Roots—and Purpose—of the Post-War Order
As the world enters an era of greater international competition, U.S. policymakers should take care not to underestimate the importance of the postwar system. The order is far from a myth; it is the United States' most important competitive advantage.
Aug 7, 2018
Foreign Affairs
International Diplomacy

We Need a New International Order. Here's Why
The postwar, rule-based international order is under unprecedented strain. The U.S. predominance so characteristic of the current order must give way to a more multilateral system, one that takes seriously the sometimes-differing perspectives of other major powers.
Jun 25, 2018
World Economic Forum
International Diplomacy

Without Reform and Cooperation with China, the International System Cannot Hold
No rule-based international order can survive without Chinese support. Reforms are needed to address Beijing's concerns and provide it with a continued stake in the order. The trick is to decide where compromise is acceptable for U.S. interests and to draw clear lines around principles where it is not.
Jun 25, 2018
The National Interest
Security Cooperation

Kim-Trump Summit Rife with Opportunity for U.S.
The growing costs of planning for Korean military contingencies place a burden on U.S. defense resources. If Tuesday's summit becomes a step toward eventual guarantees against aggression, the U.S. could remove a major Korean conflict from the top rungs of its defense planning roster, freeing resources for other worries.
Jun 11, 2018
The Hill
Global Security

Military Power Cannot Close the Defense Strategy Gap
As defense debates heat up this season, most of the noise will be around how to use defense investments. But it’s time to consider the radical notion that the best answer to strategic insolvency isn’t budgetary. It’s not even military. It is geopolitical and diplomatic.
Oct 30, 2017
War on the Rocks
Threat Assessment

On North Korea, Past Foreign Policy Fiascoes Show U.S. What Not to Do
Foreign policy disasters are often the sum of two basic errors: embracing exaggerated claims about the need to act, and inventing a conceptual magic wand to wish away potential consequences. Both are apparent in U.S. policy toward North Korea's nuclear aspirations.
Oct 5, 2017
CNN
International Diplomacy

The Multilateral Order Makes America Stronger
Skeptics have suggested that U.S. interests and support for the international community are somehow mutually exclusive. In fact, international institutions, rules, and norms have mostly worked in the U.S. interest, not against it. The Trump administration has an opportunity to build on that record with a strong agenda of reform and support.
Sep 26, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Arms Proliferation and Control

How We Can Keep Iran from Becoming the Next North Korea
The United States brokered an agreement to constrain North Korea's nuclear program 25 years ago, but hard-liners abandoned it with vague intentions of coercing the North into something better. They never did, and now a runaway North Korean program poses real danger. This offers a powerful reason to preserve the Iran nuclear deal.
Aug 22, 2017
Fortune
Nuclear Deterrence

Contain, Deter, Transform: A Winning Strategy on North Korea
North Korea's missile tests and reported progress in nuclear warhead design have produced a volatile new urgency in U.S. policy. Contain, deter, and transform isn't a radical solution, but it's one that has worked before. This approach could preserve U.S. interests while avoiding war.
Aug 9, 2017
The Hill
International Diplomacy

U.S. Interests and World Community
Evidence shows that many countries consider themselves part of an emerging global community. This represents America's most potent competitive advantage. U.S. strategy is stronger when it works to reflect and build such a community.
Jun 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
China

China's Opportunity—and Ours
A pivotal moment could be nearing for China's global role and its relationship with the United States. And America may be able to seize a historic opportunity to test Beijing's willingness to act as the co-sponsor of a stable world order.
Feb 19, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
The World Has Passed the Old Grand Strategies By
The international order is in the midst of an epochal shift, and a new administration will have to rethink basic organizing concepts for America's role in the world. The truth about grand strategy today is that the United States badly needs new options.
Oct 5, 2016
War on the Rocks
International Diplomacy

Russia and America: The World Is Big Enough for Both of Us
The United States' approach to Russia — and any other great power — over the coming decade will ultimately be more effective if grounded in the rules, norms, and institutions that have come to characterize the postwar global system.
Jun 23, 2016
The National Interest
Global Security

Will the New President Risk the Stability of the World?
America's next leader will confront one of the most profound tasks of any post-war U.S. president: reimagining a threatened international order. Mishandled, the challenge could throw world politics into a tailspin. Done right, it could help keep the peace for another half-century.
Jun 1, 2016
Newsweek
Military Strategy

Presence vs. Warfighting: A Looming Dilemma in Defense Planning
Presence involves global military deployments to counter potential aggressors, reassure allies, underwrite extended deterrence, build partner capacity, and more. It is now as important, in terms of its stabilizing and deterrent effect, as warfighting capabilities. Yet U.S. force posture falls short.
Apr 26, 2016
War on the Rocks
Military Strategy

The Strange Debates of Strategy
The United States and its allies confront a specific form of statecraft; not new, in all its characteristics, but real and relevant. And most observers who have looked at the problem tend to agree that the U.S. is ill-prepared for such tactics, in part because it simply has not thought of them as a coherent approach worthy of a tailored response.
Jan 14, 2016
War on the Rocks
Military Strategy

Struggle in the Gray Zone and World Order
Recent experience suggests that the targets of gray zone campaigns recognize them for what they are — aggressive efforts to overturn the status quo. Gray zone aggression often prompts exactly the sort of reactions it's meant to avoid.
Dec 22, 2015
War on the Rocks
Arms Proliferation and Control

We Face a New, Dangerous Age of Nuclear Weapons Rivalry
Escalating competition among major powers is amplifying the role of nuclear weapons in defense policies, including more easily used — and thus especially dangerous — tactical nuclear forces. Before it becomes too late, the U.S. should design and lead a new campaign to control nuclear risk.
Jul 16, 2015
Newsweek
Military Strategy

Land Power and a Third Offset Through a Wide-Angle Lens
The so-called 'third offset' is intended to guide U.S. defense strategy. The right way to view it is as part of a comprehensive vision for competitive advantage, one in which land power, often minimized in offset analyses, can play a central role.
May 21, 2015
War on the Rocks
United States Department of Defense

Fixes for Risk Assessment in Defense
Defense Department approaches to risk management could be improved if they focused on complex strategic judgments — questions on which information is imperfect, dozens of variables interact in nonlinear ways, and human choice and agency generate unpredictable patterns.
Apr 22, 2015
War on the Rocks
Threat Assessment

Rethinking Risk in Defense
The way the United States uses risk in national security has too often been ill-defined and misleading. The country needs a more focused and precise understanding of risk at the highest levels. In the process of developing one, risk processes should be judged by how they contribute to the making of effective strategy.
Apr 20, 2015
War on the Rocks
Military Personnel

The Most Enduring Lesson: People
Given the complex, technology-heavy, and conceptually-nuanced environment of today's military, the quality of military personnel is the dominant form of competitive advantage. All the services today place maintaining a high-quality force at the top of their list of priorities.
Apr 10, 2015
Army Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Magazine
Military Strategy

The Pros and Cons of Obama's Restraint
The signal achievement of the Obama foreign policy — fully on display in the new National Security Strategy — has been to avoid further missteps and lay the groundwork for progress by husbanding U.S. power, restoring the economic foundations of influence, and repairing the U.S. global image.
Feb 6, 2015
U.S. News & World Report

Publications

Report
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts
This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.
Dec 20, 2022
Report
Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition
This report provides a broad-based understanding of the economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions of the ongoing U.S. competitions with China and Russia and identifies recommendations for strategic policy action and investment.
Nov 30, 2022
Multimedia
The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific Region
Policymakers and scholars discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific. Presenters examined the conflict from the perspective of Japan and the United States as well as the possible impact it may have on the international order.
Nov 10, 2022
Report
Competing for the System: The Essence of Emerging Strategic Rivalries
The authors of this Perspective contend that the United States should view emerging strategic rivalries with Russia, and especially China, in systemic terms.
Nov 10, 2022
Report
Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War
The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.
Jul 26, 2022
Research Brief
The Sources of Societal Competitiveness: How Nations Actually Succeed in Long-Term Rivalries
Seven characteristics are consistently associated with national dynamism and competitive position. This brief summarizes the relationship between a nation's social condition and its global standing and applies the lessons to the United States today.
Jul 18, 2022
Report
The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness
This report examines the characteristics of highly competitive societies, explores the relationship of a nation's social condition to its global standing, and then applies these lessons to the United States today.
Jun 21, 2022
Report
Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.
Apr 14, 2022
Report
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition
In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.
Apr 6, 2022
Report
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives
The authors examine the nature of the emerging era of international competition, assess the perspectives of the major powers—beginning with the primary challengers to the U.S.-led international order—and evaluate various characteristics for each country.
Mar 31, 2022
Report
Understanding Competition: Great Power Rivalry in a Changing International Order — Concepts and Theories
U.S. national security policy for the foreseeable future will likely be oriented around competition with China and Russia. The author reviews U.S. government strategy, RAND research, and other sources to help explain international competitions.
Mar 30, 2022
Report
Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity
The authors discuss the need and potential for norms constraining cyber aggression. They review the history of cyber norms and the current policies surrounding them and propose a renewed agenda for the United States to encourage their development.
Mar 4, 2022
Multimedia
The U.S. Army's Role in the Pacific Theater: A Panel Discussion with General Charles A. Flynn
General Charles A. Flynn, head of the U.S. Army Pacific, says that the nation's land force provides two distinct values in a maritime region: (1) supporting allies and partners and (2) providing enabling capabilities to the Joint Force.
Dec 6, 2021
Report
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.
Nov 29, 2021
Report
Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China
This report examines China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries, as well as the lessons that these examples offer for the United States' strategic competition with China.
Jun 30, 2021
Report
What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait
As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence.
Apr 19, 2021
Report
What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression
In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of gray zone aggression, develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone, and apply the framework to three case studies.
Apr 19, 2021
Report
North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use
The authors examine (1) experiences of different communist regimes to forecast North Korean adoption of a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Peninsula; and (3) why North Korea might use nuclear weapons.
Aug 20, 2020
Report
The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment
The evolution of advanced information environments is rapidly creating a new category of possible cyberaggression, which RAND researchers are calling virtual societal warfare in an analysis of the characteristics and future of this growing threat.
Oct 9, 2019
Commercial Book
Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy
The dramatic insider account of why we invaded Iraq, the motivations that drove it, and the frustrations of those who tried and failed to stop it, leading to the most costly misadventure in US history.
Sep 17, 2019
Report
Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends
The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report focuses on the information warfare activities of Russia and China.
Sep 4, 2019
Report
Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War
In this report, the authors examine how the United States might respond to Russian and Chinese efforts to seek strategic advantage through coercive actions in the gray zone.
Jun 27, 2019
Report
America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity
This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.
May 7, 2019
Report
The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process: Components and Challenges
This report explores the current defense planning process used by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a focus on how scenarios are developed and employed to support defense planning.
Feb 4, 2019
Tool
Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems
This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities.
Jan 11, 2019
Report
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives
The new era of intensifying global competition is characterized by growing rivalry in the political, economic, and military spheres. This report summarizes the findings of a RAND Corporation study about the emerging era of international competition.
Dec 19, 2018
Report
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.
Nov 20, 2018
Report
The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios
This perspective summarizes the findings of three major RAND studies on security challenges on the Korean Peninsula.
May 30, 2018
Report
China and the International Order
This report analyzes China's interests and behavior to evaluate both the recent history of its interactions with the postwar international order and possible future trajectories. It also draws implications from that analysis for future U.S. policy.
May 21, 2018
Report
Summary of the Building a Sustainable International Order Project
This report outlines the findings and recommendations of a two-year project that sought to explore the existing international order, assess challenges to it, and recommend policies to advance U.S. interests in the context of a multilateral order.
May 3, 2018
Report
Understanding Deterrence
This essay draws on a range of RAND Corporation studies to revisit fundamental deterrence concepts and principles, emphasizing that deterrence and dissuasion must be conceived primarily as an effort to shape the thinking of a potential aggressor.
Apr 19, 2018
Report
Testing the Value of the Postwar International Order
This report evaluates the postwar international order's value, assessing its role in promoting U.S. goals and interests and assessing its measurable contributions to specific goals.
Jan 8, 2018
Report
Strategic Planning and the U.S. Air Force: Characteristics of Success
The U.S. Air Force has embarked on a new round of strategic planning under the auspices of its 2015 Strategic Master Plan. This report represents a general survey of the state of the art in strategy and planning.
Nov 10, 2017
Report
Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order
As part of a larger study on the future of the post-World War II liberal international order, RAND researchers analyze the health of the existing order and offer implications for future U.S. policy.
Sep 5, 2017
Report
Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order
This report examines options for future U.S. policies regarding international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms.
Aug 28, 2017
Report
Developing Senior Leaders for the Reserve Components
This perspective reviews current practices in U.S. military reserve component general officer development and surveys some of the innovative approaches the services are taking. It also explains some limitations to these approaches.
Jan 19, 2017
Report
Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series
This conference summary reflects key insights from a January 2016 workshop discussion that informed the next stages of a project titled "Building a Sustainable International Order."
Oct 19, 2016
Report
Understanding the Current International Order
RAND researchers examine the international order in effect since World War II, including the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior, the engines that drive states to participate, and the U.S. approach to the order since 1945.
Oct 19, 2016
Research Brief
Reserve Component General and Flag Officer Requirements
RAND researchers assessed whether the system, management, and number of reserve component general and flag officers were appropriate.
Oct 14, 2016
Commercial Book
Rethinking Risk in National Security: Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Risk Management
This book examines the role of risk management in the recent financial crisis and applies lessons learned to the national security realm.
Jun 1, 2016
Report
Reserve Component General and Flag Officers: A Review of Requirements and Authorized Strength
Increased use of the reserve component has renewed interest in the question of the appropriate number of reserve component general and flag officers. RAND researchers conducted a review of requirements for reserve component general and flag officers.
Feb 8, 2016