Michael J. Mazarr

Does America Still Need Europe?

The United States should be discriminating in its choice of global commitments. But if critical U.S. interests are at stake in Europe, then Washington should take the necessary steps to maintain NATO unity and European stability.

Stick with Europe

The United States' chief competitive advantage in the contest with China is its dominant global network of friends and allies. Now is the time to strengthen those coveted ties—in Europe and elsewhere.

Twenty Years After the Iraq War, a Q&A with RAND Experts

On the 20th anniversary of the war in Iraq, RAND experts discussed what the war means for the people of Iraq and the veterans who fought there, what lessons the U.S. military learned (or did not learn), and what effect it has had on the balance of power in the Middle East and the global reputation of the United States.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

The Wisdom of U.S. Restraint on Russia

The United States has been gradually increasing assistance to Ukraine without provoking a wider war. Although this approach has frustrated Ukrainian leaders and many observers, it reflects the best traditions of Cold War–era crisis diplomacy—pursuing U.S. interests while avoiding a direct clash with a rival, always with an eye on the long term.

How to Save the Postwar Order

For the last decade or so, debate has raged among scholars and policymakers about the significance of the post–World War II, rules-based international order. Is it a feeble myth, or is it a powerful influence on state behavior? Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the global response to it has put these competing claims into sharp relief.

Duty Bound to Disaster: Beware the Imperative in Foreign Policymaking

Appeals for bolder action in Ukraine will understandably only grow more intense as the appalling humanitarian toll mounts. But imperative-driven action almost always leads countries astray—and in the days and weeks ahead, it will be critical for the United States to stay alert for its symptoms.

Shaping China's Ambitions

Managing a rivalry with a regionally ambitious, globally engaged peer competitor of China's economic heft and technological sophistication will be one of the most profound strategic tests the United States has ever faced. A major lesson from its last global rivalry is that mistaken impressions about the nature of the rival and the character of the rivalry can create momentum for dangerous policies.

Avoiding a New Surge of Regime Change

As competition with China in the developing world heats up, the United States need not repeat the sad legacy of the Cold War with a surge of new efforts at covert regime change and harassment. Instead, America could maximize the systemic advantages it has long enjoyed, meet reformist leaders and movements in the developing world on their own terms, and trust the long-term appeal of American norms and values.

Can the United States Avoid Getting Trapped in a War Over Taiwan?

Neither abandonment nor a more unconditional U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan from invasion by China makes sense. Between the stark choices of fleeing and fighting, what options does the United States have to bolster its position?

Humility and Limits

When it spurns global institutions and norms and throws its considerable military weight around, the United States destroys its greatest competitive advantage—the prized role as the hub of a predominant network of global power.

Lead from Behind

Support for a reformed rules-based order may be the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. But the word “reformed” is crucial in that statement. The U.S. approach to strengthening global order will have to change in ways that will sit uneasily with the expectations and habits of the world's leading power.

Ambiguity Has Its Uses

As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.

Power and Legitimacy Go Hand in Hand

The United States has a truly distinct approach to power which has made all the difference in the post-war world. We abandon it at our peril.

The Real U.S.-China Competition: Theories of Influence

Strategic competition between the United States and China has come to dominate U.S. foreign policy debates. That competition is multifaceted, but it may turn on a basic question: Which country has a more sustainable concept of national influence?

Changing the Way America Goes to War

America's vast power, and the weakness of most of its enemies, has allowed it to get away with a striking absence of deliberative judgment when deciding on war, as the Iraq case makes clear. But that free pass is coming to an end. It's time for the United States to rethink the way it decides on wars of choice.

This Is Not a Great-Power Competition

The emerging conventional wisdom among foreign policy analysts in Washington is that a new era of great-power competition is upon us. But does that phrase really capture today's reality?

Yes, the U.S. Could Be Drawn Into Yet Another Big War

The outcome of the Iraq invasion has done little to alter the factors that have led American leaders and the public into unwise military adventures. Today's big idea of America's mission is not so different from what it was in 2003. Any number of events could spark a new moral imperative to act.

The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge

In an era of global competition in which U.S. military resources are stretched thin, the United States should consider looking for opportunities to scale back potential overcommitment. The current inter-Korean dialogue presents such an opportunity.

The Roots—and Purpose—of the Post-War Order

As the world enters an era of greater international competition, U.S. policymakers should take care not to underestimate the importance of the postwar system. The order is far from a myth; it is the United States' most important competitive advantage.

We Need a New International Order. Here's Why

The postwar, rule-based international order is under unprecedented strain. The U.S. predominance so characteristic of the current order must give way to a more multilateral system, one that takes seriously the sometimes-differing perspectives of other major powers.

Without Reform and Cooperation with China, the International System Cannot Hold

No rule-based international order can survive without Chinese support. Reforms are needed to address Beijing's concerns and provide it with a continued stake in the order. The trick is to decide where compromise is acceptable for U.S. interests and to draw clear lines around principles where it is not.

Kim-Trump Summit Rife with Opportunity for U.S.

The growing costs of planning for Korean military contingencies place a burden on U.S. defense resources. If Tuesday's summit becomes a step toward eventual guarantees against aggression, the U.S. could remove a major Korean conflict from the top rungs of its defense planning roster, freeing resources for other worries.

Military Power Cannot Close the Defense Strategy Gap

As defense debates heat up this season, most of the noise will be around how to use defense investments. But it’s time to consider the radical notion that the best answer to strategic insolvency isn’t budgetary. It’s not even military. It is geopolitical and diplomatic.

On North Korea, Past Foreign Policy Fiascoes Show U.S. What Not to Do

Foreign policy disasters are often the sum of two basic errors: embracing exaggerated claims about the need to act, and inventing a conceptual magic wand to wish away potential consequences. Both are apparent in U.S. policy toward North Korea's nuclear aspirations.

The Multilateral Order Makes America Stronger

Skeptics have suggested that U.S. interests and support for the international community are somehow mutually exclusive. In fact, international institutions, rules, and norms have mostly worked in the U.S. interest, not against it. The Trump administration has an opportunity to build on that record with a strong agenda of reform and support.

How We Can Keep Iran from Becoming the Next North Korea

The United States brokered an agreement to constrain North Korea's nuclear program 25 years ago, but hard-liners abandoned it with vague intentions of coercing the North into something better. They never did, and now a runaway North Korean program poses real danger. This offers a powerful reason to preserve the Iran nuclear deal.

Contain, Deter, Transform: A Winning Strategy on North Korea

North Korea's missile tests and reported progress in nuclear warhead design have produced a volatile new urgency in U.S. policy. Contain, deter, and transform isn't a radical solution, but it's one that has worked before. This approach could preserve U.S. interests while avoiding war.

U.S. Interests and World Community

Evidence shows that many countries consider themselves part of an emerging global community. This represents America's most potent competitive advantage. U.S. strategy is stronger when it works to reflect and build such a community.

China's Opportunity—and Ours

A pivotal moment could be nearing for China's global role and its relationship with the United States. And America may be able to seize a historic opportunity to test Beijing's willingness to act as the co-sponsor of a stable world order.

The World Has Passed the Old Grand Strategies By

The international order is in the midst of an epochal shift, and a new administration will have to rethink basic organizing concepts for America's role in the world. The truth about grand strategy today is that the United States badly needs new options.

Russia and America: The World Is Big Enough for Both of Us

The United States' approach to Russia — and any other great power — over the coming decade will ultimately be more effective if grounded in the rules, norms, and institutions that have come to characterize the postwar global system.

Will the New President Risk the Stability of the World?

America's next leader will confront one of the most profound tasks of any post-war U.S. president: reimagining a threatened international order. Mishandled, the challenge could throw world politics into a tailspin. Done right, it could help keep the peace for another half-century.

Presence vs. Warfighting: A Looming Dilemma in Defense Planning

Presence involves global military deployments to counter potential aggressors, reassure allies, underwrite extended deterrence, build partner capacity, and more. It is now as important, in terms of its stabilizing and deterrent effect, as warfighting capabilities. Yet U.S. force posture falls short.

The Strange Debates of Strategy

The United States and its allies confront a specific form of statecraft; not new, in all its characteristics, but real and relevant. And most observers who have looked at the problem tend to agree that the U.S. is ill-prepared for such tactics, in part because it simply has not thought of them as a coherent approach worthy of a tailored response.

Struggle in the Gray Zone and World Order

Recent experience suggests that the targets of gray zone campaigns recognize them for what they are — aggressive efforts to overturn the status quo. Gray zone aggression often prompts exactly the sort of reactions it's meant to avoid.

We Face a New, Dangerous Age of Nuclear Weapons Rivalry

Escalating competition among major powers is amplifying the role of nuclear weapons in defense policies, including more easily used — and thus especially dangerous — tactical nuclear forces. Before it becomes too late, the U.S. should design and lead a new campaign to control nuclear risk.

Land Power and a Third Offset Through a Wide-Angle Lens

The so-called 'third offset' is intended to guide U.S. defense strategy. The right way to view it is as part of a comprehensive vision for competitive advantage, one in which land power, often minimized in offset analyses, can play a central role.

Fixes for Risk Assessment in Defense

Defense Department approaches to risk management could be improved if they focused on complex strategic judgments — questions on which information is imperfect, dozens of variables interact in nonlinear ways, and human choice and agency generate unpredictable patterns.

Rethinking Risk in Defense

The way the United States uses risk in national security has too often been ill-defined and misleading. The country needs a more focused and precise understanding of risk at the highest levels. In the process of developing one, risk processes should be judged by how they contribute to the making of effective strategy.

The Most Enduring Lesson: People

Given the complex, technology-heavy, and conceptually-nuanced environment of today's military, the quality of military personnel is the dominant form of competitive advantage. All the services today place maintaining a high-quality force at the top of their list of priorities.

The Pros and Cons of Obama's Restraint

The signal achievement of the Obama foreign policy — fully on display in the new National Security Strategy — has been to avoid further missteps and lay the groundwork for progress by husbanding U.S. power, restoring the economic foundations of influence, and repairing the U.S. global image.

Research Brief

Greater Conflict-Phase Access to Asia: U.S. Policies for Five Indo-Pacific Countries

This research brief addresses how U.S. allies and partners are likely to make decisions about granting approval for U.S. military access during a conflict and what U.S. policies in peacetime could affect those decisions.

Report

Improving Conflict-Phase Access: Identifying U.S. Policy Levers

This report explores how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific are likely to respond to military access requests in the event of a conflict with China and what policy levers the United States might use in peacetime to affect those responses.

Report

The United States and China—Designing a Shared Future: The Potential for Track 2 Initiatives to Design an Agenda for Coexistence

The U.S.-China rivalry is intensifying, causing a high level of mistrust and stifling the impacts of Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues. A new Track 2 initiative is needed to design a shared future and stem the decline in U.S.-China relations.

Commentary

Defending Without Dominance: Accelerating the Transition to a New U.S. Defense Strategy

This Perspective examines the gap between U.S. defense aspirations and current policy. The author surveys grand strategy principles, defines the strategic approach and its assumptions, and explains why such assumptions are no longer valid.

Report

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. To defeat evolving threats, such as China's broad military modernization and Russia's reconstituted forces, more-coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are required.

Report

U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views

This report, one of two, focuses on whether partners and allies have the willingness to support U.S. operations in a major Indo-Pacific conflict. The companion report focuses on technical and operational issues.

Report

New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts

This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.

Report

Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition

This report provides a broad-based understanding of the economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions of the ongoing U.S. competitions with China and Russia and identifies recommendations for strategic policy action and investment.

Commentary

Competing for the System: The Essence of Emerging Strategic Rivalries

The authors of this Perspective contend that the United States should view emerging strategic rivalries with Russia, and especially China, in systemic terms.

Commentary

Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.

Research Brief

The Sources of Societal Competitiveness: How Nations Actually Succeed in Long-Term Rivalries

Seven characteristics are consistently associated with national dynamism and competitive position. This brief summarizes the relationship between a nation's social condition and its global standing and applies the lessons to the United States today.

Report

The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

This report examines the characteristics of highly competitive societies, explores the relationship of a nation's social condition to its global standing, and then applies these lessons to the United States today.

Report

Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.

Report

Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.

Report

Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives

The authors examine the nature of the emerging era of international competition, assess the perspectives of the major powers—beginning with the primary challengers to the U.S.-led international order—and evaluate various characteristics for each country.

Commentary

Understanding Competition: Great Power Rivalry in a Changing International Order — Concepts and Theories

U.S. national security policy for the foreseeable future will likely be oriented around competition with China and Russia. The author reviews U.S. government strategy, RAND research, and other sources to help explain international competitions.

Report

Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity

The authors discuss the need and potential for norms constraining cyber aggression. They review the history of cyber norms and the current policies surrounding them and propose a renewed agenda for the United States to encourage their development.

Report

Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

Report

Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China

This report examines China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries, as well as the lessons that these examples offer for the United States' strategic competition with China.

Report

What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait

As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence.

Report

What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression

In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of gray zone aggression, develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone, and apply the framework to three case studies.

Report

North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

The authors examine (1) experiences of different communist regimes to forecast North Korean adoption of a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Peninsula; and (3) why North Korea might use nuclear weapons.

Report

The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment

The evolution of advanced information environments is rapidly creating a new category of possible cyberaggression, which RAND researchers are calling virtual societal warfare in an analysis of the characteristics and future of this growing threat.

Commercial Book

Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy

The dramatic insider account of why we invaded Iraq, the motivations that drove it, and the frustrations of those who tried and failed to stop it, leading to the most costly misadventure in US history.

Report

Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends

The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report focuses on the information warfare activities of Russia and China.

Report

Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War

In this report, the authors examine how the United States might respond to Russian and Chinese efforts to seek strategic advantage through coercive actions in the gray zone.

Report

America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity

This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.

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The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process: Components and Challenges

This report explores the current defense planning process used by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a focus on how scenarios are developed and employed to support defense planning.

Tool

Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems

This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities.

Report

Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives

The new era of intensifying global competition is characterized by growing rivalry in the political, economic, and military spheres. This report summarizes the findings of a RAND Corporation study about the emerging era of international competition.

Report

What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.

Commentary

The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios

This perspective summarizes the findings of three major RAND studies on security challenges on the Korean Peninsula.

Report

China and the International Order

This report analyzes China's interests and behavior to evaluate both the recent history of its interactions with the postwar international order and possible future trajectories. It also draws implications from that analysis for future U.S. policy.

Report

Summary of the Building a Sustainable International Order Project

This report outlines the findings and recommendations of a two-year project that sought to explore the existing international order, assess challenges to it, and recommend policies to advance U.S. interests in the context of a multilateral order.

Commentary

Understanding Deterrence

This essay draws on a range of RAND Corporation studies to revisit fundamental deterrence concepts and principles, emphasizing that deterrence and dissuasion must be conceived primarily as an effort to shape the thinking of a potential aggressor.

Report

Testing the Value of the Postwar International Order

This report evaluates the postwar international order's value, assessing its role in promoting U.S. goals and interests and assessing its measurable contributions to specific goals.

Report

Strategic Planning and the U.S. Air Force: Characteristics of Success

The U.S. Air Force has embarked on a new round of strategic planning under the auspices of its 2015 Strategic Master Plan. This report represents a general survey of the state of the art in strategy and planning.

Report

Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order

As part of a larger study on the future of the post-World War II liberal international order, RAND researchers analyze the health of the existing order and offer implications for future U.S. policy.

Report

Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order

This report examines options for future U.S. policies regarding international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms.

Commentary

Developing Senior Leaders for the Reserve Components

This perspective reviews current practices in U.S. military reserve component general officer development and surveys some of the innovative approaches the services are taking. It also explains some limitations to these approaches.

Report

Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series

This conference summary reflects key insights from a January 2016 workshop discussion that informed the next stages of a project titled "Building a Sustainable International Order."

Report

Understanding the Current International Order

RAND researchers examine the international order in effect since World War II, including the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior, the engines that drive states to participate, and the U.S. approach to the order since 1945.

Research Brief

Reserve Component General and Flag Officer Requirements

RAND researchers assessed whether the system, management, and number of reserve component general and flag officers were appropriate.

Commercial Book

Rethinking Risk in National Security: Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Risk Management

This book examines the role of risk management in the recent financial crisis and applies lessons learned to the national security realm.

Report

Reserve Component General and Flag Officers: A Review of Requirements and Authorized Strength

Increased use of the reserve component has renewed interest in the question of the appropriate number of reserve component general and flag officers. RAND researchers conducted a review of requirements for reserve component general and flag officers.