Michael J. Mazarr — Publications

AI as Strategist: Four Hypotheses on the Nature of Agentic Strategy

2026
The Emerging Digital Battleground: The Critical Factors That Produce Advantage in the U.S.-China Competition for Digital Networks

2026
A Networked Leapfrog Strategy to Recapture Technology Leadership

2026
A New Age of Nations: Power and Advantage in the AI Era: RAND Policy Lab

2026
The Scope and Nature of the U.S.-China Competition

2026
Building a U.S. National Strategy for the Artificial Intelligence Era: Drawing Lessons from Six Archetypal Strategies

2025
A New Age of Nations: Power and Advantage in the AI Era

2025
Sustaining U.S. Army Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Potential Roles of Allies and Partners

2025
Understanding Escalation: A Framework for Evaluating the Escalatory Risks of Policy Actions

2025
Comparative Analysis of U.S. and PRC Efforts to Advance Critical Military Technology: Volume 1, Analytic Approach for Conducting Comparative Technology Assessments

2024
The Department of the Air Force and Integrated Deterrence

2024
The Emerging Competitive Paradigm: A Contest of Effective Governance

2024
The Fates of Nations: Varieties of Success and Failure for Great Powers in Long-Term Rivalries

2024
Integrated Deterrence as a Defense Planning Concept

2024
The Societal Basis for National Competitiveness: Chinese and Russian Perspectives

2024
The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism

2024
The Space Enterprise and Integrated Deterrence

2024
Defending Without Dominance: Accelerating the Transition to a New U.S. Defense Strategy

2023
Greater Conflict-Phase Access to Asia: U.S. Policies for Five Indo-Pacific Countries

2023
Improving Conflict-Phase Access: Identifying U.S. Policy Levers

2023
Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

2023
A New Approach to Power Projection: Reversing the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

2023
The United States and China—Designing a Shared Future: The Potential for Track 2 Initiatives to Design an Agenda for Coexistence

2023
U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views

2023
Competing for the System: The Essence of Emerging Strategic Rivalries

2022
Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity

2022
Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

2022
The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific Region

2022
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts

2022
Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

2022
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

2022
The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

2022
The Sources of Societal Competitiveness: How Nations Actually Succeed in Long-Term Rivalries

2022
Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition

2022
Understanding Competition: Great Power Rivalry in a Changing International Order — Concepts and Theories

2022
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives

2022
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

2021
Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China

2021
The U.S. Army's Role in the Pacific Theater: A Panel Discussion with General Charles A. Flynn

2021
What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait

2021
What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression

2021
North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

2020
America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity

2019
The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment

2019
Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems

2019
Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War

2019
Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends

2019
Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy

2019
The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process: Components and Challenges

2019
China and the International Order

2018
The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios

2018
Summary of the Building a Sustainable International Order Project

2018
Testing the Value of the Postwar International Order

2018
Understanding Deterrence

2018
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives

2018
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

2018
Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order

2017
Developing Senior Leaders for the Reserve Components

2017
Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order

2017
Strategic Planning and the U.S. Air Force: Characteristics of Success

2017
Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series

2016
Reserve Component General and Flag Officer Requirements

2016
Reserve Component General and Flag Officers: A Review of Requirements and Authorized Strength

2016
Rethinking Risk in National Security: Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Risk Management

2016
Understanding the Current International Order

2016

U.S. research divisions

International research divisions

Michael J. Mazarr — Publications

AI as Strategist: Four Hypotheses on the Nature of Agentic Strategy

The Emerging Digital Battleground: The Critical Factors That Produce Advantage in the U.S.-China Competition for Digital Networks

A Networked Leapfrog Strategy to Recapture Technology Leadership

A New Age of Nations: Power and Advantage in the AI Era: RAND Policy Lab

The Scope and Nature of the U.S.-China Competition

Building a U.S. National Strategy for the Artificial Intelligence Era: Drawing Lessons from Six Archetypal Strategies

A New Age of Nations: Power and Advantage in the AI Era

Sustaining U.S. Army Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Potential Roles of Allies and Partners

Understanding Escalation: A Framework for Evaluating the Escalatory Risks of Policy Actions

Comparative Analysis of U.S. and PRC Efforts to Advance Critical Military Technology: Volume 1, Analytic Approach for Conducting Comparative Technology Assessments

The Department of the Air Force and Integrated Deterrence

The Emerging Competitive Paradigm: A Contest of Effective Governance

The Fates of Nations: Varieties of Success and Failure for Great Powers in Long-Term Rivalries

Integrated Deterrence as a Defense Planning Concept

The Societal Basis for National Competitiveness: Chinese and Russian Perspectives

The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism

The Space Enterprise and Integrated Deterrence

Defending Without Dominance: Accelerating the Transition to a New U.S. Defense Strategy

Greater Conflict-Phase Access to Asia: U.S. Policies for Five Indo-Pacific Countries

Improving Conflict-Phase Access: Identifying U.S. Policy Levers

Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

A New Approach to Power Projection: Reversing the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

The United States and China—Designing a Shared Future: The Potential for Track 2 Initiatives to Design an Agenda for Coexistence

U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views

Competing for the System: The Essence of Emerging Strategic Rivalries

Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity

Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific Region

New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts

Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

The Sources of Societal Competitiveness: How Nations Actually Succeed in Long-Term Rivalries

Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition

Understanding Competition: Great Power Rivalry in a Changing International Order — Concepts and Theories

Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives

Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China

The U.S. Army's Role in the Pacific Theater: A Panel Discussion with General Charles A. Flynn

What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait

What Deters and Why: Applying a Framework to Assess Deterrence of Gray Zone Aggression

North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity

The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment

Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems

Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone: Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War

Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends

Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy

The U.S. Department of Defense's Planning Process: Components and Challenges

China and the International Order

The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios

Summary of the Building a Sustainable International Order Project

Testing the Value of the Postwar International Order

Understanding Deterrence

Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives

What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order

Developing Senior Leaders for the Reserve Components

Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order

Strategic Planning and the U.S. Air Force: Characteristics of Success

Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series

Reserve Component General and Flag Officer Requirements

Reserve Component General and Flag Officers: A Review of Requirements and Authorized Strength

Rethinking Risk in National Security: Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Risk Management

Understanding the Current International Order