Samuel Charap — Publications

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Europe’s Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict

2026
A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine: Trump Can’t End a War With a Real Estate Transaction

2026
How to Broker Peace in Ukraine: Decades of Hard-Won Mediation Experience Point the Way

2026
Managed Disorder: The Hard Road to a Modest Peace with Russia After Ukraine

2026
The Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War

2025
Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War and the Changing Face of Conflict

2025
Guidelines for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War: Best Practices, Lessons Learned, and the Role of Technology

2025
Scenarios for the Future of U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability and Arms Control: Results from a Track II Dialogue

2025
A Snapback Solution for Ukraine: How to Craft Security Guarantees That Kyiv—and Moscow—Will Find Credible

2025
Why Peace Talks Fail in Ukraine: Learning the Right Lessons From Three Years of Grinding War and Faltering Negotiations

2025
The Day After: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia

2024
A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine: Trump Needs a Realistic Game Plan, Strong Incentives, and Patience

2024
Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War

2024
Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad

2024
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine: A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations

2024
U.S. Options for Post–New START Arms Control with Russia

2024
Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That's the Wrong Question

2024
Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers

2023
Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

2023
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

2023
Proposals to Address Political Interference: Outcomes of a Trilateral Dialogue

2023
An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine

2023
What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach

2023
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

2022
Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

2022
Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War

2022
Russia's Growing Presence in Africa: A Geostrategic Assessment

2022
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

2022
Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling

2022
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives

2022
Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions

2021
Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in U.S. Russia Policy

2021
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

2021
Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

2021
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

2021
Meeting Europe's 21st Century Security Challenges: Reimagining Conventional Arms Control

2020
Moscow's Calibrated Coercion in Ukraine and Russian Strategic Culture

2020
A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century

2020
Strategic Sderzhivanie: Understanding Contemporary Russian Approaches to "Deterrence"

2020
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

2019
The Demise of the INF: Implications for Russia-China Relations

2019
The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

2019
Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria

2019
What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?

2019
Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

2018
Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

2018

U.S. research divisions

International research divisions

Samuel Charap — Publications

Europe’s Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict

A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine: Trump Can’t End a War With a Real Estate Transaction

How to Broker Peace in Ukraine: Decades of Hard-Won Mediation Experience Point the Way

Managed Disorder: The Hard Road to a Modest Peace with Russia After Ukraine

The Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War

Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War and the Changing Face of Conflict

Guidelines for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War: Best Practices, Lessons Learned, and the Role of Technology

Scenarios for the Future of U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability and Arms Control: Results from a Track II Dialogue

A Snapback Solution for Ukraine: How to Craft Security Guarantees That Kyiv—and Moscow—Will Find Credible

Why Peace Talks Fail in Ukraine: Learning the Right Lessons From Three Years of Grinding War and Faltering Negotiations

The Day After: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia

A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine: Trump Needs a Realistic Game Plan, Strong Incentives, and Patience

Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War

Russia's War Aims in Ukraine: Objective-Setting and the Kremlin's Use of Force Abroad

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine: A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations

U.S. Options for Post–New START Arms Control with Russia

Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That's the Wrong Question

Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers

Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Proposals to Address Political Interference: Outcomes of a Trilateral Dialogue

An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine

What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War

Russia's Growing Presence in Africa: A Geostrategic Assessment

Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition

Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling

Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives

Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions

Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in U.S. Russia Policy

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

Meeting Europe's 21st Century Security Challenges: Reimagining Conventional Arms Control

Moscow's Calibrated Coercion in Ukraine and Russian Strategic Culture

A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century

Strategic Sderzhivanie: Understanding Contemporary Russian Approaches to "Deterrence"

A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

The Demise of the INF: Implications for Russia-China Relations

The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition

Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria

What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?

Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia