Gun Policy in America
A RAND Research Initiative
Gun Policy in America
RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative provides information on what scientific research can tell us about the effects of gun laws. Our goal is to establish a shared set of facts that will improve public discussions and support the development of fair and effective gun policies.
We analyzed thousands of studies to examine the effects of gun policies on defensive gun use, hunting participation, suicide rates, and other outcomes. We also evaluated the views of gun policy experts who have opposing perspectives on the likely effects of gun laws to understand where disagreements exist and where compromise might be possible.
By exploring this project, you can view summaries of our key findings, delve into our analysis of the existing evidence base, learn how the experts think policies would affect outcomes, download our historical database of state gun laws, and access the supporting research reports.Essay: Gun Policy in America
Latest Update: March 2022
Findings from an updated survey of gun policy experts show wide disagreement on how much individual policies may reduce gun violence and other gun-related harms. Analysis of the responses from 173 researchers, advocates, and analysts can help identify where these groups agree and disagree on the likely effects of gun policies, and what combinations of laws might be satisfactory to all sides. Explore the findings in the Gun Policy Expert Opinion Tool, read the research report, or essay in RAND Review.
Suggestions for Estimating the Effects of Gun Policy
A new research report considered the methodological problems that have contributed to confusion about the true effects of gun policies, and what alternative methods might produce more-credible information. Read the research report.
Research Review: How Gun Policies Affect Outcomes: What the Evidence Shows Us
To know whether a gun policy is fair and effective, we need to determine how it affects outcomes, such as suicide rates and hunting participation. Scientific research could provide the most-reliable proof of these effects.
We reviewed thousands of studies to identify all available evidence for the effects of 18 gun policies on eight outcomes. After excluding studies that did not meet our criteria for establishing a law's effects, we found little persuasive evidence for the effects of most policies on most outcomes.
For eight of the 18 policies, either we found no studies examining the effects on any of the outcomes we considered or the evidence was inconclusive. However, we found some evidence that 10 policies affect one or more of four of the outcomes, as shown below. For example, evidence shows that waiting periods may decrease (brown lines) suicide rates and that concealed-carry laws may increase (teal lines) violent crime. The thicker the line, the stronger the evidence.
Click on a policy, outcome, or relationship to learn more.
Gun Policies That May Increase Outcomes
Gun Policies That May Decrease Outcomes
For four of the outcomes we studied— defensive gun use, hunting and recreation, mass shootings, and officer-involved shootings—we found inconclusive evidence, at best, on the effects of any of the policies. However, these understudied outcomes are often central concerns in gun policy debates. For instance, even though we found that child-access prevention laws have measureable benefits in reducing accidental and intentional self-injuries and deaths, the effects of these laws on defensive gun use—one of the principal objections raised against child-access prevention laws—have not been evaluated rigorously.In-depth analysis of current gun policy research
Firearm InjuriesHospitalizations from Firearm Injuries
Gun deaths are only part of the social and public health impact of gun violence—thousands of Americans are also hospitalized each year with non-fatal gun injuries.
To address a gap in the available data on firearm injuries, RAND researchers have developed a longitudinal database of state-level estimates of inpatient hospitalizations due to firearm injury from 2000 to 2016. Use the Firearm Injury Hospitalizations in America visualization to see rates of firearm injuries in your state, and how trends in firearm injuries differ between states.
Gun RestrictionsCertain Gun Restrictions Could Save Lives—But the Extent Varies by State
Experts agree that policies should be designed to reduce gun deaths in the U.S. But there is still disagreement about which laws will accomplish that reduction.
RAND examined three categories of state gun laws—child access prevention laws, right-to-carry laws and stand-your-ground laws—and estimated their association with changes in state-level firearm deaths. We found that states that put the most restrictive combination of these three policies into effect could see a small but significant reduction of firearm deaths.
Because each state’s current combination of these three common gun policies varies, the extent to which a given state could see a reduction in deaths depends on the level of restriction already present.
The 18 states that currently have the least restrictive combination of these three policies could see the most significant reduction in firearm deaths—11 percent—after the effects have phased in, six or more years after putting the most restrictive combination of these laws into effect.Firearm restrictions and their potential to reduce gun deaths
Gun OwnershipHow Many Americans Own Guns?
Information about gun ownership in America, and how it has changed over time, is important for understanding the effects of gun laws and policies.
RAND has developed a longitudinal database of State-Level Estimates of Household Firearm Ownership, derived from a statistical model that draws on a wide range of survey and administrative data sources. The Gun Ownership in America visualization draws on this database to show how gun ownership rates differ across the United States, and have changed over time.
Law NavigatorWhich States Have Enacted Four Key Firearm Laws?
Research on the effects of gun laws requires good data on when and where different types of laws have been implemented. The State Firearm Law Navigator shows where and when four types of laws have been enacted: background checks, child-access prevention, concealed-carry, and stand-your-ground laws.
The visualization is developed from RAND's longitudinal database of state firearm laws, which includes state implementation data for 17 classes of gun laws.
Gun Policy Expert-Opinion ToolUpdated Do Experts Agree on Any Gun Policy Effects?
With limited scientific evidence on the effects of gun laws, policymakers and the public frequently rely on the views of experts, including those associated with advocacy organizations. These experts sometimes have opposing views on the probable effects of gun laws, and their merits. In 2021, RAND updated a survey of experts from academia, advocacy organizations on all sides of the gun debate, and professional associations. The 173 experts fell into two clear groups: those who favor more-permissive regulatory approaches to gun access and use and those who favor more-restrictive approaches. The survey can be used to explore where these groups agree and disagree on the likely effects that different combinations of gun policies will have on each state and nationwide.
Key Findings: Highlights from the Gun Policy in America Initiative
The Gun Policy in America initiative has produced dozens of detailed reviews describing what is and isn’t known about the effects of gun policies. The essays below offer short overviews of many of the project’s key findings and recommendations.
The full findings from RAND's literature review of studies examining the effects of gun policies and from a survey of gun policy experts are published in two peer-reviewed reports. To help advance research on the effects of state gun policies, the RAND team also developed a new data set of state laws and their variants from 1979 to 2016. In addition, the team published a short technical report analyzing the methods and findings from a study of U.S. gun legislation and firearm mortality.