Effects of Licensing and Permitting Requirements on Mass Shootings

Summary: Evidence that licensing and permitting requirements may decrease mass shootings is limited.

Our search yielded five studies that met our inclusion criteria and examined the effects of licensing and permitting requirements on mass shootings, two of which (Fridel, 2021a; Siegel et al., 2020a) contribute new findings to this updated review. Two studies (Blau, Gorry, and Wade, 2016; Luca, Malhotra, and Poliquin, 2020) are subject to critical methodological concerns related to model overfit (fewer than three events per estimated parameter) and thus are not discussed further.

Using data from 1984 to 2017, Webster et al. (2020) estimated negative binomial regression models to evaluate the effects of 14 different firearm laws, including in-person licensing or fingerprint requirements, on mass shootings involving four or more firearm fatalities (excluding offender fatalities and drug- or gang-related shootings). Controlling for state fixed effects, linear and quadratic time trends, and 14 social and economic state covariates, the authors found that in-person licensing or fingerprint requirements were associated with 56 percent fewer mass shooting incidents and 57 percent fewer deaths. These effects remained statistically significant (and were of larger magnitude) when restricted to non–domestic-related incidents, while effects were more uncertain for domestic-related incidents. However, as with most empirical studies of mass shootings, incidents and fatalities were quite sparsely represented in the data used for these models (i.e., incidents occurred at a rate of less than 0.4 per state-year, and fewer than two deaths occurred per state-year). Without adjustments for known biases in maximum likelihood estimates using sparse data, the resulting effect estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) may be biased and unreliable, particularly given the relatively small number of policy changes used to identify effects (Kenne Pagui, Salvan, and Sartori, 2022).

Siegel et al. (2020a) evaluated a slightly longer time frame (1976 to 2018) and focused on the relationship of permit-to-purchase laws with mass public shooting incidents, defined as incidents unconnected to other criminal activity in which four or more victims were fatally shot in a public location. Regression models controlled for linear and quadratic national time trends and 13 time-varying state-level characteristics, including population, demographic composition, ratio of firearm suicides to suicides, age-adjusted firearm homicide rate, and several other firearm laws. Estimates from logistic regressions showed that permit-to-purchase laws had significant negative associations with the likelihood of any mass public shooting incident occurring; similar findings are shown in zero-inflated negative binomial models. In addition to concerns with sparse outcome data, these results are subject to minor concerns related to having fewer than ten observations per parameter and the absence of discussion around identifying assumptions (e.g., the extent to which estimated effects reflect across-state versus within-state variation).

Finally, Fridel (2021a) evaluated the shorter time frame of 1991 to 2016 and assessed the relationship between universal permitting requirements and rates of mass murder, defined as an incident with four or more fatalities (excluding the perpetrator) within a 24-hour period. The author used negative binomial models that employed generalized estimating equations and included region-level fixed effects, year fixed effects, controls for other firearm policies, and a large set of state-level time-varying covariates (including a proxy for firearm ownership, socioeconomic factors, and crime rates). Results showed that permitting requirements had uncertain effects. However, the purpose of this study was to evaluate shall-issue laws; because other firearm laws were intended as ancillary covariates, these results are subject to serious methodological concerns with drawing causal conclusions.

The figure below displays the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and CIs associated with the licensing and permitting policies examined in these studies.

Incidence Rate Ratios Associated with the Effect of Licensing and Permitting Requirements on Mass Shootings

This forest plot shows estimates of how this policy affects this outcome, based on the evidence in the studies examined. In particular, the graphic shows the standardized effect sizes (or IRRs) and their 95-percent CIs for each outcome. An effect size of 1.00 indicates that, after a state passes the law, we would expect the outcome (e.g., suicide or firearm suicide) to be unaffected. An effect size of less than 1.00 indicates that the law appears to reduce the outcome. For example, if the effect size were 0.92, we would expect the rate of the outcome to fall to 0.92 times the rate prior to passage of the law. Conversely, an effect size of more than 1.00 indicates that the law appears to increase the outcome by a factor equivalent to the effect size value. When the CIs do not include the value of 1.00, the estimated effect is statistically significant at p < 0.05.

Study, by Policy Outcome Measure Effect Size (IRR) [95% CI]

NOTE: IRR values marked with unfilled circles indicate that serious methodological concerns are discussed in the text. Filled circles indicate that we identified no serious methodological concerns. Effect estimates with critical methodological concerns are not presented. An arrow on either end of a CI indicates that the interval is wider than can be displayed on the scale.

Conclusions

Excluding two studies with critical methodological concerns, we identified three qualifying studies that estimated the effects of licensing and permitting laws on mass shootings or mass murders. Two studies (Siegel et al., 2020a; Webster et al., 2020) found statistically significant negative relationships between permit-to-purchase laws and mass shooting outcomes (i.e., the likelihood of any mass public shooting occurring in a state, the number of mass shooting incidents or fatalities). One study (Fridel, 2021a) found an uncertain relationship between permit requirements and mass murder incidence rates. Considering this evidence and an evaluation of the studies' strengths, we find limited evidence that licensing and permitting requirements may reduce mass shootings.

Originally published March 2, 2018

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  • Wintemute, Garen J., Carrie A. Parham, Mona A. Wright, James J. Beaumont, and Christiana M. Drake, “Weapons of Choice: Previous Criminal History, Later Criminal Activity, and Firearm Preference Among Legally Authorized Young Adult Purchasers of Handguns,” Journal of Trauma: Injury, Infection, and Critical Care, Vol. 44, No. 1, 1998.
  • Wintemute, Garen J., Veronica A. Pear, Julia P. Schleimer, Rocco Pallin, Sydney Sohl, Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz, and Elizabeth A. Tomsich, “Extreme Risk Protection Orders Intended to Prevent Mass Shootings: A Case Series,” Annals of Internal Medicine, August 2019.
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  • Wright, James D., and Peter H. Rossi, Armed and Considered Dangerous: A Survey of Felons and Their Firearms, Aldine de Gruyter, 1986.
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  • Wright, M. A., G. J. Wintemute, and B. E. Claire, “People and Guns Involved in Denied and Completed Handgun Sales,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 11, No. 4, 2005.
  • Wright, M. A., G. J. Wintemute, and B. E. Claire, “Gun Suicide by Young People in California: Descriptive Epidemiology and Gun Ownership,” Journal of Adolescent Health, Vol. 43, No. 6, 2008.
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  • Yablon, Alex, “Use of Red Flag Laws Varies Widely Among Local Police,” The Trace, April 23, 2019.
  • Yakubovich, Alexa R., Michelle Degli Esposti, Brittany C. L. Lange, G. J. Melendez-Torres, Alpa Parmar, Douglas J. Wiebe, and David K. Humphreys, “Effects of Laws Expanding Civilian Rights to Use Deadly Force in Self-Defense on Violence and Crime: A Systematic Review,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 111, No. 4, 2021.
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  • Zeoli, April M., Domestic Violence and Firearms: Research on Statutory Interventions, Battered Women’s Justice Project, 2018.
  • Zeoli, April M., Shannon Frattaroli, Leslie Barnard, Andrew Bowen, Annette Christy, Michele Easter, Reena Kapoor, Christopher Knoepke, Wenjuan Ma, Amy Molocznik, Michael Norko, Elise Omaki, Jennifer K. Paruk, Veronica A. Pear, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Julia P. Schleimer, Jeffrey W. Swanson, and Garen J. Wintemute, “Extreme Risk Protection Orders in Response to Threats of Multiple Victim/Mass Shooting in Six U.S. States: A Descriptive Study,” Preventive Medicine, Vol. 165, Pt. A, December 2022.
  • Zeoli, April M., Shannon Frattaroli, Kelly Roskam, and Anastasia K. Herrera, “Removing Firearms from Those Prohibited from Possession by Domestic Violence Restraining Orders: A Survey and Analysis of State Laws,” Trauma, Violence, and Abuse, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2019.
  • Zeoli, April M., Alexander McCourt, Shani Buggs, Shannon Frattaroli, David Lilley, and Daniel W. Webster, “Analysis of the Strength of Legal Firearms Restrictions for Perpetrators of Domestic Violence and Their Associations with Intimate Partner Homicide,” American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 187, No. 11, 2018.
  • Zeoli, April M., and Jennifer K. Paruk, “Potential to Prevent Mass Shootings Through Domestic Violence Firearm Restrictions,” Criminology and Public Policy, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2020.
  • Zeoli, April M., Jennifer Paruk, Charles C. Branas, Patrick M. Carter, Rebecca Cunningham, Justin Heinze, and Daniel W. Webster, “Use of Extreme Risk Protection Orders to Reduce Gun Violence in Oregon,” Criminology and Public Policy, Vol. 20, No. 2, May 2021.
  • Zeoli, A. M., and D. W. Webster, “Effects of Domestic Violence Policies, Alcohol Taxes and Police Staffing Levels on Intimate Partner Homicide in Large U.S. Cities,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2010.
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  • Zuckerman, Ethan, J. Nathan Matias, Rahul Bhargava, Fernando Bermejo, and Allan Ko, “Whose Death Matters? A Quantitative Analysis of Media Attention to Deaths of Black Americans in Police Confrontations, 2013–2016,” International Journal of Communication, Vol. 13, 2019.

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