Thomas S. Szayna

Senior Political Scientist

Off Site Office

Education

M.A. in international relations, Claremont Graduate School; B.A. in history and philosophy, Villanova University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Thomas S. Szayna is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He has over 30 years of experience in national security policy and defense analysis.

He was the director of RAND's Defense and Political Sciences Department in 2014–2020. From 1997 to 2011 he served as associate director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program in the RAND Army Research Division. His research has focused on aspects of strategic planning for the U.S. armed forces, post-conflict stability and reconstruction operations, and coalition interoperability. He has given testimony for the U.S. House of Representatives and has been a keynote speaker at a number of defense conferences.

Szayna received an M.A. in international relations from Claremont Graduate School and a B.A. in history and philosophy from Villanova University.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Aftermath of Troop Withdrawal
Impact of U.S. Military Posture and Operations on the Incidence of Conflict
Conflict Trends and Propensity for U.S. Intervention
Designing and Implementing the Global Landpower Network Concept
Enabling an Efficient and Effective Global SOF Network

Selected Publications

Thomas S. Szayna, Eric V. Larson, Angela O'Mahony, Sean Robson, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, et.al., Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces, RAND Corporation (RR-1058), 2016

Michael J. McNerney, Angela O'Mahony, Thomas S. Szayna, Derek Eaton, Caroline Baxter, Colin P. Clarke, Emma Cutrufello, Michael McGee, Heather Peterson, Leslie Payne, Calin Trenkov-Wermuth, Assessing Security Cooperation as a Preventive Tool, RAND Corporation (RR-350), 2014

Elvira N. Loredo, John E. Peters, Karlyn D. Stanley, Matthew E. Boyer, William Welser, Thomas S. Szayna, Authorities and Options for Funding USSOCOM Operations, RAND Corporation (RR-360), 2014

Thomas S. Szayna, William Welser, Developing and Assessing Options for the Global SOF Network, RAND Corporation (RR-340), 2013

Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Brian Nichiporuk, Thomas S. Szayna, Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis, RAND Corporation (MG-668), 2009

Thomas S. Szayna, Kevin F. McCarthy, Jerry M. Sollinger, Linda J. Demaine, Jefferson P. Marquis, Brett D. Steele, The Civil-Military Gap in the United States: Does It Exist, Why, and Does It Matter?RAND Corporation (MG-379), 2007

Thomas S. Szayna, Paul Dreyer, Derek Eaton, Lisa Saum-Manning, Army Global Basing Posture: an Analytic Framework for Maximizing Responsiveness and Effectiveness, RAND Corporation (RR-158), 2015

Honors & Awards

President's Choice Silver Award, 2013, RAND Corporation
President's Choice Gold Award, 2005, RAND Corporation

Commentary

Racial Discrimination

Confederate Statues Symbolize Role of Racism in America
Monuments are public art and symbols important to those who hold power. The renewed debate about monuments to historical figures associated with the Confederacy is part of the larger debate about the role of racism in the United States and the treatment of African Americans by institutions.
Jul 16, 2020
United Press International
Artificial Intelligence

First, Manage Security Threats to Machine Learning
Deception is as old as warfare itself. Until now, the targets of deception operations have been humans. But the introduction of machine learning and artificial intelligence opens up a whole new world of opportunities to deceive by targeting machines.
Nov 4, 2019
War on the Rocks

Publications

Report
Assessing, Monitoring, and Evaluating Army Security Cooperation: A Framework for Implementation
To help the Army increase the effectiveness of its security cooperation activities, this report examines when Army security cooperation can have the greatest impact, and how the Army should assess, monitor, and evaluate security cooperation.
Jul 24, 2018
Report
U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.
Feb 15, 2018
Report
Supporting Persistent and Networked Special Operations Forces (SOF) Operations: Insights from Forward-Deployed SOF Personnel
RAND Corporation researchers identified three key operational challenges that forward-deployed personnel have encountered and then assessed the extent to which persistent, networked, and distributed operations can mitigate these challenges.
Oct 16, 2017
Report
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?
This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
The Global Landpower Network: Recommendations for Strengthening Army Engagement
The U.S. Army's global landpower network concept integrates, sustains, and advances the Army's efforts to meet U.S. national security guidance emphasizing the importance of working closely with partner nations to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.
Aug 21, 2017
Report
Assessing the Value of Regionally Aligned Forces in Army Security Cooperation: An Overview
This report highlights recent RAND Arroyo Center research on the value of the Army's regionally aligned forces to U.S. security cooperation activities, particularly those conducted in Africa.
May 10, 2017
Report
European Relations with Russia: Threat Perceptions, Responses, and Strategies in the Wake of the Ukrainian Crisis
This report analyzes how Europeans perceive the Russian threat following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, how European states have responded to Russia's behavior, and how European officials see the future of Russo-European relations.
Apr 13, 2017
Report
Russia and the West After the Ukrainian Crisis: European Vulnerabilities to Russian Pressures
Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine, Europe must reassess the regional security environment. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation.
Jan 18, 2017
Report
Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces
This report assesses challenges for unit cohesion from integrating women into special operations forces and provides analytical support for validating occupational standards for positions controlled by U.S. Special Operations Command.
Dec 16, 2015
Report
Army Global Basing Posture: An Analytic Framework for Maximizing Responsiveness and Effectiveness
This report develops a methodology and a framework for global Army positioning and uses that framework to assess U.S. Army forward stationing from a perspective of maximum responsiveness and effectiveness and identifies potential improvements.
Jun 1, 2015
Multimedia
SOF Partner Assessment: Introduction to Country Characteristics
Part one of a four-part video series describes the use of consistent metrics to assess countries' political attractiveness and reliability as partners in the U.S. Special Operations Command's proposed Global Special Operations Forces (SOF) Network.
Nov 13, 2014
Multimedia
Using Network Analysis Methods to Support the Global SOF Network
This video explores how network analysis metrics--in particular
Nov 13, 2014
Multimedia
China: The Reluctant Partner
This video podcast explores whether inviting China to partner with U.S. Special Operating Forces might alter Chinese thinking on military cooperation.
Jul 30, 2014
Report
Authorities and Options for Funding USSOCOM Operations
This report examines mechanisms, sources, and inter-Service agreements for funding special operations forces (SOF) operations and provides recommendations to reduce the frequency and duration of disputes over funding responsibilities for SOF.
Jun 3, 2014
Report
Assessing Security Cooperation as a Preventive Tool
Based on an analysis of security cooperation (SC) data and state fragility scores for 107 countries in 1991-2008, the report describes the correlation between provision of SC by the United States and a reduction in partner state fragility.
Mar 20, 2014
Report
Developing and Assessing Options for the Global SOF Network
RAND researchers developed implementation options for U.S. Special Operations Command's Global SOF Network vision, which calls for a new, distributed overseas posture for Special Operations Forces (SOF) as a way to address threats.
Sep 27, 2013
Research Brief
Enhancing Civilian Agency Participation in Stability Operations
Examines the question of how the Army can assist in making key civilian agencies more capable partners to the Army in the planning and execution of stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations.
Sep 18, 2013
Research Brief
Addressing Commanders' Needs for Information on "Soft" Factors
Describes a framework for thinking about commanders' critical information needs in countersurgency operations and offers practical ways for commanders to integrate influence activities into combined arms planning and assessment.
Dec 5, 2011
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 33, No. 3, Winter 2009-2010
Features focus on stabilization missions, grade retention, health financing, and RAND's president; other items discuss the European Union, sodium, health insurance, retail medical clinics, energy efficiency, disaster recovery, and alcohol pricing.
Dec 23, 2009
Report
Integrating Civilian Agencies in Stability Operations
Examines the question of how the Army can assist in making key civilian agencies more capable partners to the Army in the planning and execution of stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations.
Aug 14, 2009
Report
Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis
Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for a subsequent IW intelligence analysis curriculum development effort.
Dec 11, 2008
Report
Stabilization and Reconstruction Staffing: Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities
Presents a framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for stability and reconstruction operations.
Mar 8, 2008
Report
Preparing the Army for Stability Operations: Doctrinal and Interagency Issues
The monograph discusses ways that the U.S. Army can adapt to recent government directives to revamp the way that the armed forces plan, prepare for, and execute Stabilization, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction operations.
Oct 4, 2007
Report
The Civil-Military Gap in the United States: Does It Exist, Why, and Does It Matter?
Addresses the potential for a divergence in views among civilian and military elites (sometimes referred to as the civil-military gap) to undermine military effectiveness.
Aug 22, 2007
Report
U.S. Army Security Cooperation: Toward Improved Planning and Management
Discusses the Army’s current process for planning and resourcing its security cooperation activities and explores avenues for improvement.
Dec 17, 2004
Report
Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Implications for the U.S. Army
Considers key factors underlying the likelihood of conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus, assessing their implications for regional security and for U.S. interests and potential involvement over the next 10 to 15 years.
2003
Testimony
The Future of NATO and Enlargement
Testimony for the Subcommittee on Europe of the Committee on International Relations, United States House of Representatives on April 17, 2002.
2002
Report
The Impact of NATO Membership in the Czech Republic: Changing Czech Views of Security, Military & Defence
The Impact of NATO Membership in the Czech Republic: Changing Czech Views of Security, Military & Defence
2002
Research Brief
Improving the Quality of DoD's Civilian Workforce: Guidance for the Office of the Chancellor for Education and Professional Development
Among the recommendations is that the Chancellor's office focus on becoming the DoD educational information center in the near term while seeking, over the medium term, to develop a role in the program approval process.
2002
Report
The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis
This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).
2001
Report
Improving Army Planning for Future Multinational Coalition Operations
The Army currently lacks effective and appropriate processes to plan for enhanced multinational force compatibility (MFC). The authors address this problem by focusing recommendations on two primary issues.
2001
Report
Strategic and Performance Planning for the Office of the Chancellor for Education and Professional Development in the Department of Defense
Examines several approaches to strategic planning for the DoD Office of the Chancellor for Education and Professional Development.
2001
Report
NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015: Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping
This report develops and applies an analytical framework for thinking about the determinants of future NATO enlargement, the specific defense challenges they pose, and shaping policies that might aid in addressing these challenges.
2001
Research Brief
NATO Enlargement 2000–2015: Implications for Defense Planning
The study provides an analytical framework for thinking about the determinants of future enlargement, the defense challenges posed by the integration of new members, and the strategies needed to respond.
2001
Report
Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model
Intrastate communitarian strife, often dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained much attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict.
2000
Journal Article
Slovakia: Trying to Catch Up with Visegrad
The lengthy Meciar period let Slovakia fall behind other Visegrad countries in the pace of Euro-Atlantic institutional integration.
2000
Journal Article
The Czech Republic: A Small Contributor or a Free Rider?
Strengths and liabilities that accompany the 1999 addition of the Czech Republic to the ranks of the 16-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
1999
Journal Article
NATO Enlargement and the Future of U.S.-European Security Relations
1999
Journal Article
Civil-military Relations in the Czech and Slovak Republics
The Czech case represents a situation in which the military retains only a minor role in domestic politics.
1998
Report
Cuba and Lessons From Other Communist Transitions: A Workshop Report
Cuba and Lessons From Other Communist Transitions: A Workshop Report
1998
Report
Anticipating Ethnic Conflict
This report provides a practical tool -- a guidebook and a methodology to follow -- to help intelligence analysts determine the long-term potential for communitarian and ethnic conflict.
1997
Report
Assessing armed forces' deficiencies for peace operations : a methodology
Assessing armed forces' deficiencies for peace operations : a methodology
1997
Report
The extreme-right political movements in post-communist Central Europe
The extreme-right political movements in post-communist Central Europe
1997
Report
NATO's Metamorphosis and Central European Politics: Effects of Alliance Transformation
Focuses on the effects of NATO's decision to enlarge on several states and populations invited to join or that had wanted to join but were not invited at the Madrid summit: Poland, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, and Romania.
1997
Report
Defense conversion in East Europe
Defense conversion in East Europe
1995
Report
East European Military Reform After the Cold War: Implications for the United States
The authors focus on the process of military reform in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, examining how the process of overcoming the Soviet legacy to the militaries of the six countries has unfolded.
1995
Report
German and Polish Views of the Partnership for Peace
The Partnership for Peace (PfP) program can be seen as a lens for examining the larger security policy debates in Poland and Germany.
1995
Report
Intervention in Intrastate Conflict: Implications for the Army in the Post-Cold War Era
With the end of the Cold War, the nature of conflict within states has turned in the direction of ethnic, nationalist, and separatist struggles.
1995
Report
Intervention in Intrastate Conflict: Implications for the Army in the Post-Cold War Era: Supplemental Materials
This report is the supplemental volume to the main report of the study, MR-554/1-A. The bulk of it is devoted to describing six speculative "case studies," drawn from a global survey of actual and potential flashpoints, that describe possible U.S. interventions in intrastate conflict that would involve the Army.
1995
Report
Ethnic Conflict in Central Europe and the Balkans: A Framework and U.S. Policy Options
This report provides an analytical framework for thinking about the potential for militarized ethnic conflict in the central part of Europe and the Balkans.
1994
Draft
The rise of the extreme right in post-communist Central Europe
The rise of the extreme right in post-communist Central Europe
1993
Report
The Military in a Postcommunist Czechoslovakia
The Czechoslovak military has become a genuinely nonpartisan institution that operates on the basis of the democratic principles governing the state. This has been the main achievement since the political changes in 1989.
Jun 5, 1992
Report
Civil-Military Relations and National Security Thinking in Czechoslovakia: A Conference Report
Summarizes the results of a workshop entitled "Civil-Military Relations and the Development of National Security Policy in the United States and Czech and Slovak Federal Republic," held in Prague on May 5-7, 1991.
1992
Report
The Ethnic Factor in the Soviet Armed Forces: The Muslim Dimension
Open ethnic conflict has swept the entire Soviet Union during the last few years. The Muslims already have had a powerful negative impact on the efficiency of the Soviet military.
1991
Report
The Military in a Postcommunist Poland
Examines the evolution of the Polish armed forces since the political changes of mid-1989 in Poland.
1991
Report
Polish National Security Thinking in a Changing Europe: A Conference Report
Analyzes the discussions between Polish and U.S. security experts during a conference on The Military and National Security Policy, held in Warsaw, Poland, June 11-13, 1990.
1991
Report
Polish Foreign Policy under a Non-Communist Government: Prospects and Problems
Analyzes Polish foreign policy directions following the establishment of a government led by non-Communists.
1990

Multimedia

7:30

China: The Reluctant Partner
Jul 28, 2014