# Effects of Stand-Your-Ground Laws on Mass Shootings

Summary: Evidence for the effects of stand-your-ground laws on mass shootings is inconclusive.

We identified one qualifying study that examined whether stand-your-ground laws are associated with the incidence of mass shootings. Using data from 1982 to 2013, Blau, Gorry, and Wade (2016) used a linear probability model to estimate how a variety of gun laws, including stand-your-ground laws, relate to the probability of a public shooting incident occurring in a given state-year. In their full model, which controls for state fixed effects, aggregate state-level income, state population, and a linear national time trend, the authors found that stand-your-ground laws were associated with a statistically significant decline in the likelihood of a public shooting incident. However, their use of a linear model to predict a dichotomous (and rare) outcome likely violated model assumptions and rendered the results unreliable. The authors’ estimated linear probability model can yield predicted probabilities of active shooting incidence that extend far outside the definitional 0 to 1 range of a probability, depending on the particular combination of policies present in a given state. Moreover, the estimated model implies negative incidence rate ratios (IRRs), which represent implausible effect sizes, for some of the gun policies that we are studying.[1] This indicates a serious model misspecification (Cox and Snell, 1989; Aldrich and Nelson, 1984) and prevents us from interpreting the estimated coefficients as causal effect estimates.

## Conclusions

One study estimated the effects of stand-your-ground laws on the incidence of mass shootings. Blau, Gorry, and Wade (2016) found a statistically significant negative relationship between stand-your-ground laws and the study’s outcome for mass shootings. Because of the methodological concerns with this single study, we find inconclusive evidence for the effects of stand-your-ground laws on mass shootings.

Originally published April 22, 2020

## Notes

1. For example, the model coefficient for stand-your-ground laws implies an IRR of –2, with a 95-percent confidence interval that lies entirely in the negative IRR range. Return to content

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• FBI—See Federal Bureau of Investigation.
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• Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime in the United States 2015: Expanded Homicide Data Table 28,” webpage, 2016d. As of May 9, 2017: https://ucr.fbi.gov/leoka/2015/tables/table_28_leos_fk_type_of_weapon_2006-2015.xls
• Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime in the United States 2015: Violent Crime,” U.S. Department of Justice, 2016e. As of May 8, 2017: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/violent-crime/violentcrimemain_final.pdf
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• Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Expanded Homicide Data Table 8: Murder Victims, by Weapon, 2013–2017,” webpage, Crime in the United States 2017, 2018b. As of May 13, 2019: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls
• Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Expanded Homicide Data Table 15: Justifiable Homicide, by Weapon, Private Citizen, 2013–2017,” webpage, Crime in the United States 2017, 2018c. As of May 13, 2019: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-15.xls
• Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Table 1: Crime in the United States, by Volume and Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants, 1998–2017,” webpage, Crime in the United States 2017, 2018d. As of August 1, 2019: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/tables/table-1
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• Federal Bureau of Investigation, 30 Questions and Answers About NIBRS Transition, October 2018f.
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• Vigdor, E. R., and J. A. Mercy, “Do Laws Restricting Access to Firearms by Domestic Violence Offenders Prevent Intimate Partner Homicide?” Evaluation Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, 2006.
• Vince, Joseph J., Timothy Wolfe, and Layton Field, Firearms Training and Self-Defense: Does the Quality and Frequency of Training Determine the Realistic Use of Firearms by Citizens for Self-Defense? National Gun Victims Action Council, 2015.
• Violano, Pina, Cassandra Driscoll, Neil K. Chaudhary, Kevin M. Schuster, Kimberly A. Davis, Esther Borer, Jane K. Winters, and Michael P. Hirsh, “Gun Buyback Programs: A Venue to Eliminate Unwanted Guns in the Community,” Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Vol. 77, No. 3, Supp. 1, September 2014.
• Violence Policy Center, “Concealed Carry Killers,” webpage, 2017. As of March 23, 2017: http://concealedcarrykillers.org/
• Violence Policy Center, Firearm Justifiable Homicides and Non-Fatal Self-Defense Gun Use: An Analysis of Federal Bureau of Investigation and National Crime Victimization Survey Data, September 2018.
• The Violence Project, “Mass Shooter Database,” web tool, undated. As of June 8, 2020: https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooter-database/
• Vittes, K. A., and S. B. Sorenson, “Recreational Gun Use by California Adolescents,” Health Education and Behavior, Vol. 32, No. 6, 2005.
• Vittes, K. A., J. S. Vernick, and D. W. Webster, “Legal Status and Source of Offenders’ Firearms in States with the Least Stringent Criteria for Gun Ownership,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 19, No. 1, June 23, 2012.
• Vittes, Katherine A., Daniel W. Webster, Shannon Frattaroli, Barbara E. Claire, and Garen J. Wintemute, “Removing Guns from Batterers: Findings from a Pilot Survey of Domestic Violence Restraining Order Recipients in California,” Violence Against Women, Vol. 19, No. 5, 2013.
• Vyrostek, S. B., J. L. Annest, and G. W. Ryan, “Surveillance for Fatal and Nonfatal Injuries—United States, 2001,” MMWR Surveillance Summary, Vol. 53, 2004.
• Wadsworth, T., C. E. Kubrin, and J. R. Herting, “Investigating the Rise (and Fall) of Young Black Male Suicide in the United States, 1982–2001,” Journal of African American Studies, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2014.
• Wadsworth, Tim, and John M. Roberts, Jr., “When Missing Data Are Not Missing: A New Approach to Evaluating Supplemental Homicide Report Imputation Strategies,” Criminology, Vol. 46, No. 4, 2008.
• Wagenaar, Alexander C., Matthew J. Salois, and Kelli A. Komro, “Effects of Beverage Alcohol Price and Tax Levels on Drinking: A Meta‐Analysis of 1003 Estimates from 112 Studies,” Addiction, Vol. 104, No. 2, 2009.
• Wallace, Lacey N., “Castle Doctrine Legislation: Unintended Effects for Gun Ownership?” Justice Policy Journal, Vol. 11, No. 2, Fall 2014.
• Wang, N., L. Liu, and J. E. Eck, “Analyzing Crime Displacement with a Simulation Approach,” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol. 41, No. 2, 2014.
• Warburton, A. L., and J. P. Shepherd, “Tackling Alcohol Related Violence in City Centres: Effect of Emergency Medicine and Police Intervention,” Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2006.
• Ward, Julia A., Javier Cepeda, Dylan B. Jackson, Odis Johnson Jr., Daniel W. Webster, and Cassandra K. Crifasi, “National Burden of Injury and Deaths from Shootings by Police in the United States, 2015–2020,” American Journal of Public Health, forthcoming.
• Ward, Julie A., Emma E. McGinty, Talib Hudson, Elizabeth M. Stone, Colleen L. Barry, Daniel W. Webster, and Cassandra K. Crifasi, “Reimagining Public Safety: Public Opinion on Police Reform and Gun Violence Prevention by Race and Gun Ownership in the United States,” Preventive Medicine, Vol. 165, Pt. A, December 2022, article 107180.
• Watkins, Adam M., Beth M. Huebner, and Scott H. Decker, “Patterns of Gun Acquisition, Carrying, and Use Among Juvenile and Adult Arrestees: Evidence from a High‐Crime City,” Justice Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 4, 2008.
• Watkins, Adam M., and Alan J. Lizotte, “Does Household Gun Access Increase the Risk of Attempted Suicide? Evidence from a National Sample of Adolescents,” Youth and Society, Vol. 45, No. 3, 2013.
• Webster, D., C. K. Crifasi, and J. S. Vernick, “Effects of the Repeal of Missouri’s Handgun Purchaser Licensing Law on Homicides,” Journal of Urban Health, Vol. 91, No. 2, 2014.
• Webster, D. W., L. H. Freed, S. Frattaroli, and M. H. Wilson, “How Delinquent Youths Acquire Guns: Initial Versus Most Recent Gun Acquisitions,” Journal of Urban Health, Vol. 79, No. 1, 2002.
• Webster, Daniel W., Alexander D. McCourt, Cassandra K. Crifasi, Marisa D. Booty, and Elizabeth A. Stuart, “Evidence Concerning the Regulation of Firearms Design, Sale, and Carrying on Fatal Mass Shootings in the United States,” Criminology and Public Policy, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2020.
• Webster, Daniel W., and Marc Starnes, “Reexamining the Association Between Child Access Prevention Gun Laws and Unintentional Shooting Deaths of Children,” Pediatrics, Vol. 106, No. 6, 2000.
• Webster, Daniel W., Jon S. Vernick, and Maria T. Bulzacchelli, “Effects of State-Level Firearm Seller Accountability Policies on Firearm Trafficking,” Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, Vol. 86, No. 4, 2009.
• Webster, Daniel W., Jon S. Vernick, and Lisa M. Hepburn, “Relationship Between Licensing, Registration, and Other Gun Sales Laws and the Source State of Crime Guns,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 7, 2001.
• Webster, Daniel W., Jon S. Vernick, and Lisa M. Hepburn, “Effects of Maryland's Law Banning ‘Saturday Night Special’ Handguns on Homicides,” American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 155, No. 5, 2002.
• Webster, Daniel W., Jon S. Vernick, Emma E. McGinty, and Ted Alcorn, “Preventing the Diversion of Guns to Criminals Through Effective Firearm Sales Laws,” in Daniel W. Webster and Jon S. Vernick, eds., Reducing Gun Violence in America: Informing Policy with Evidence and Analysis, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013.
• Webster, D. W., J. S. Vernick, A. M. Zeoli, and J. A. Manganello, “Association Between Youth-Focused Firearm Laws and Youth Suicides,” JAMA, Vol. 292, No. 5, 2004.
• Webster, D. W., and G. J. Wintemute, “Effects of Policies Designed to Keep Firearms from High-Risk Individuals,” Annual Review of Public Health, Vol. 36, 2015.
• Weil, Douglas S., and Rebecca C. Knox, “Effects of Limiting Handgun Purchase on Interstate Transfer of Firearms,” JAMA, Vol. 275, No. 22, 1996.
• Weisburd, D., S. Bushway, C. Lum, and S.-M. Yang, “Trajectories of Crime at Places: A Longitudinal Study of Street Segments in the City of Seattle,” Criminology, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2004.
• Weisburd, D., and J. E. Eck, “What Can Police Do to Reduce Crime, Disorder, and Fear?” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 593, No. 1, 2004.
• Wellford, Charles F., John V. Pepper, and Carol V. Petrie, eds., Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review, National Research Council, 2005.
• Welsh, B. C., and D. P. Farrington, “Public Area CCTV and Crime Prevention: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis,” Justice Quarterly, Vol. 26, 2009.
• Wheeler, Andrew P., Scott W. Phillips, John L. Worrall, and Stephen A. Bishopp, “What Factors Influence an Officer’s Decision to Shoot? The Promise and Limitations of Using Public Data,” Justice Research and Policy, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2017.
• Wiebe, Douglas J., “Homicide and Suicide Risks Associated with Firearms in the Home: A National Case-Control Study,” Annals of Emergency Medicine, Vol. 41, No. 6, 2003.
• WikiArms, homepage, undated. As of December 11, 2020: https://www.wikiarms.com
• Wilcox, P., and J. E. Eck, “Criminology of the Unpopular: Implications for Policy Aimed at Payday Lending Facilities,” Criminology and Public Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2, 2011.
• Willinger, Andrew, “New York’s Response to Bruen: The Outer Limits of the ‘Sensitive Places’ Doctrine,” Duke Center for Firearms Law, blog, July 13, 2022. As of August 23, 2022: https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2022/07/new-yorks-response-to-bruen-the-outer-limits-of-the-sensitive-places-doctrine/
• Wilson, Jonathan, Jr., and Kyle Sammin, “Should Philadelphia Continue Gun Buybacks? Pro/Con,” Philadelphia Enquirer, updated October 21, 2022.
• Wilson, William Julius, The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy, 1st ed., University of Chicago Press, 1987.
• Wilson, William Julius, When Work Disappears: The World of the New Urban Poor, Alfred A. Knopf, 1996.
• Wintemute, Garen J., Ring of Fire: The Handgun Makers of Southern California, Violence Prevention Research Program, 1994.
• Wintemute, Garen J., “Ghost Guns: Spookier Than You Think They Are,” Injury Epidemiology, Vol. 8, No. 13, 2021.
• Wintemute, Garen J., Marian E. Betz, and Megan L. Ranney, “Yes, You Can: Physicians, Patients, and Firearms,” Annals of Internal Medicine, Vol. 165, No. 3, 2016.
• Wintemute, G. J., D. Hemenway, D. Webster, G. Pierce, and A. A. Braga, “Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 100, No. 10, 2010.
• Wintemute, G. J., C. A. Parham, J. J. Beaumont, M. Wright, and C. Drake, “Mortality Among Recent Purchasers of Handguns,” New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 341, No. 21, 1999.
• Wintemute, Garen J., Carrie A. Parham, Mona A. Wright, James J. Beaumont, and Christiana M. Drake, “Weapons of Choice: Previous Criminal History, Later Criminal Activity, and Firearm Preference Among Legally Authorized Young Adult Purchasers of Handguns,” Journal of Trauma: Injury, Infection, and Critical Care, Vol. 44, No. 1, 1998.
• Wintemute, Garen J., Veronica A. Pear, Julia P. Schleimer, Rocco Pallin, Sydney Sohl, Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz, and Elizabeth A. Tomsich, “Extreme Risk Protection Orders Intended to Prevent Mass Shootings: A Case Series,” Annals of Internal Medicine, August 2019.
• Wooldridge, J. M., Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press, 2002.
• World Health Organization, Preventing Suicide: A Global Imperative, 2014.
• World Health Organization, World Health Organization Mortality Database, 2017. As of October 13, 2017: http://apps.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/mortality/causeofdeath_query/start.php
• Worrall, John L., Stephen A. Bishopp, Scott C. Zinser, Andrew P. Wheeler, and Scott W. Phillips, “Exploring Bias in Police Shooting Decisions with Real Shoot/Don’t Shoot Cases,” Crime and Delinquency, Vol. 64, No. 9, 2018.
• Wright, Alexandra, Katherine E. Smith, and Mark Hellowell, “Policy Lessons from Health Taxes: A Systematic Review of Empirical Studies,” BMC Public Health, Vol. 17, No. 1, 2017.
• Wright, James D., and Peter H. Rossi, Armed and Considered Dangerous: A Survey of Felons and Their Firearms, Aldine de Gruyter, 1986.
• Wright, M. A., and G. J. Wintemute, “Felonious or Violent Criminal Activity that Prohibits Gun Ownership Among Prior Purchasers of Handguns: Incidence and Risk Factors,” Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Vol. 69, No. 4, 2010.
• Wright, M. A., G. J. Wintemute, and B. E. Claire, “People and Guns Involved in Denied and Completed Handgun Sales,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 11, No. 4, 2005.
• Wright, M. A., G. J. Wintemute, and B. E. Claire, “Gun Suicide by Young People in California: Descriptive Epidemiology and Gun Ownership,” Journal of Adolescent Health, Vol. 43, No. 6, 2008.
• Wright, Mona A., Garen J. Wintemute, and Frederick P. Rivara, “Effectiveness of Denial of Handgun Purchase to Persons Believed to Be at High Risk for Firearm Violence,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 89, No. 1, 1999.
• Wu, Eric Q., Lizheng Shi, Howard Birnbaum, Teresa Hudson, and Ronald Kessler, “Annual Prevalence of Diagnosed Schizophrenia in the USA: A Claims Data Analysis Approach,” Psychological Medicine, Vol. 36, No. 11, 2006.
• Xue, Xiaonan, Mimi Y. Kim, Tao Wang, Mark H. Kuniholm, and Howard D. Strickler, “A Statistical Method for Studying Correlated Rare Events and Their Risk Factors,” Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 26, No. 3, 2017.
• Yablon, Alex, “Use of Red Flag Laws Varies Widely Among Local Police,” The Trace, April 23, 2019.
• Yakubovich, Alexa R., Michelle Degli Esposti, Brittany C. L. Lange, G. J. Melendez-Torres, Alpa Parmar, Douglas J. Wiebe, and David K. Humphreys, “Effects of Laws Expanding Civilian Rights to Use Deadly Force in Self-Defense on Violence and Crime: A Systematic Review,” American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 111, No. 4, 2021.
• Yurk, Robin, Linda Jaramillo, Linda L. Erwin, and Neal J. Rendleman, “Educating the Community About Violence Through a Gun Turn-In Program,” Journal of Community Health, Vol. 26, No. 5, October 2001.
• Zawitz, Marianne W., Guns Used in Crime, U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ-148201, 1995.
• Zeoli, April M., Shannon Frattaroli, Kelly Roskam, and Anastasia K. Herrera, “Removing Firearms from Those Prohibited from Possession by Domestic Violence Restraining Orders: A Survey and Analysis of State Laws,” Trauma, Violence, and Abuse, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2019.
• Zeoli, April M., Alexander McCourt, Shani Buggs, Shannon Frattaroli, David Lilley, and Daniel W. Webster, “Analysis of the Strength of Legal Firearms Restrictions for Perpetrators of Domestic Violence and Their Associations with Intimate Partner Homicide,” American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 187, No. 11, 2018.
• Zeoli, April M., and Jennifer K. Paruk, “Potential to Prevent Mass Shootings Through Domestic Violence Firearm Restrictions,” Criminology and Public Policy, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2020.
• Zeoli, April M., Jennifer Paruk, Charles C. Branas, Patrick M. Carter, Rebecca Cunningham, Justin Heinze, and Daniel W. Webster, “Use of Extreme Risk Protection Orders to Reduce Gun Violence in Oregon,” Criminology and Public Policy, Vol. 20, No. 2, May 2021.
• Zeoli, A. M., and D. W. Webster, “Effects of Domestic Violence Policies, Alcohol Taxes and Police Staffing Levels on Intimate Partner Homicide in Large U.S. Cities,” Injury Prevention, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2010.
• Zimmerman, Paul R., “The Deterrence of Crime Through Private Security Efforts: Theory and Evidence,” International Review of Law and Economics, Vol. 37, 2014.
• Zimring, Franklin E., “Firearms and Federal Law: The Gun Control Act of 1968,” Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1975.
• Zimring, Franklin E., When Police Kill, Harvard University Press, 2017.
• Zuckerman, Ethan, J. Nathan Matias, Rahul Bhargava, Fernando Bermejo, and Allan Ko, “Whose Death Matters? A Quantitative Analysis of Media Attention to Deaths of Black Americans in Police Confrontations, 2013–2016,” International Journal of Communication, Vol. 13, 2019.

View the full project bibliography