Jennifer Kavanagh

Associate Director, Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, RAND Arroyo Center; Political Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, University of Michigan; M.A. in political science, University of Michigan; B.A. in government, Harvard University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Jennifer Kavanagh is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation and associate director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program in the RAND Arroyo Center. Her research focuses on U.S. political institutions and public opinion and their implications for U.S. foreign and domestic policy. She also studies defense strategy and planning, military force posture, and U.S. military interventions. Her recent book, co-authored with RAND’s CEO Michael Rich, defines “Truth Decay” as the diminishing reliance on facts and data in U.S. political and civil discourse and describes its causes and consequences. Kavanagh is also a faculty member at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and has taught research methods courses as an adjunct professor at Georgetown and American University. While completing her Ph.D., she was a Department of Homeland Security fellow and completed a research internship at Lawrence Livermore National Lab.

Kavanagh graduated from Harvard University with a BA in government and a minor in the Russian language. She completed her Ph.D. in political science and public policy at University of Michigan. Her dissertation, "The Dynamics of Protracted Terror Campaigns: Domestic Politics, Terrorist Violence, Counterterror Responses" was named the best dissertation in the public policy subfield in 2010 by the American Political Science Association.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Jennifer Kavanagh and Michael D. Rich, An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life, RAND Corporation (RR-2314-RC), 2018

Honors & Awards

Department of Homeland Security Fellowship, Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology
Best Dissertation in Public Policy Subfield, 2010, American Political Science Association

Commentary

What Keeps Millennials Awake at Night Could Change Over Time
Millennials are less worried than baby boomers about national security topics and more worried about kitchen table issues, such as making ends meet each month and paying off debts. But this may have less to do with the fact that they are millennials and more to do with the fact that millennials are young.
Jul 30, 2018 United Press International
Truth Decay, America's Latest Pastime
Detailed data and complex analysis are the foundation of decisionmaking in baseball and many other professions and occupations. But facts are out of favor in current U.S. political and civil discourse, and the public policymaking that accompanies it.
Jul 12, 2018 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
In Reckoning with Today's Truth Wars, Look to America's Past
The declining regard for factual evidence may be a defining characteristic of our current age. Previous eras suggest it is within society's power to restore respect for objective facts. Humankind just needs to put it on the agenda.
Jun 19, 2018 CNN
People—Not the Tech Companies—Will Ultimately Stop Disinformation in Europe
Authorities can continue to seek to punish the tech companies for the circulation of false articles. But this is unlikely to make a difference until more people take the time and acquire the skills to distinguish between fact and fiction.
Apr 9, 2018 E!Sharp
The Diminishing Role of Facts in American Public Life
Without agreement about objective facts and a common understanding of and respect for data and analytical interpretations of those data, it becomes nearly impossible to have the types of meaningful policy debates that form the foundation of democracy.
Jan 17, 2018 USA Today
How RAND Is Responding to Truth Decay: Q&A with Michael Rich and Jennifer Kavanagh
RAND's Michael Rich and Jennifer Kavanagh explain what "Truth Decay" is and discuss how ongoing RAND research could help counter it.
May 5, 2017

Publications

Journal Article
Journal Article
Adaptation by Intelligent Adversaries to Defensive Measures: Framing Adaptation Options and Demonstrating Assessment of Attacker Preferences Using Proxy Intelligence Data
Addressing adaptation by adversaries and its implications for security planning requires understanding the ways attackers can respond to new defensive measures. This paper demonstrates an analysis of such preferences using open source data.
Oct 2, 2018
Report
Millennial Perceptions of Security: Results from a National Survey of Americans
This report -- part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 -- uses survey data to compare attitudes and opinions of millennials with those of previous generations and draws inferences about potential millennial concerns about security.
Jun 14, 2018
Multimedia
Truth Decay: A Narrated Video
May 16, 2018
Report
Report
Limited Intervention: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations
The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.
Feb 22, 2018
Report
U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.
Feb 15, 2018
Research Brief
Truth Decay: A Threat to Policymaking and Democracy
RAND has begun to investigate the causes and consequences of the phenomenon it calls Truth Decay -- the diminishing role of facts and data in American public life -- and invites others to join in continued research to help counteract it.
Jan 16, 2018
Report
Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life
"Truth Decay" refers to a diminishing reliance on facts and analysis observed in contemporary U.S. society, and especially its political discourse. This report explores the causes and effects of Truth Decay and proposes strategies for further action.
Jan 16, 2018
Report
The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts
This report uses an original data set of U.S. ground interventions to identify factors that determine where and when the United States is most likely to intervene militarily.
Oct 12, 2017
Report
Report
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Report
A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Report
Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?
This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Access Granted: Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence, 1945–2014
This report explores the topic of U.S. access to foreign military bases and territory. It systematically examines the issues of peacetime and contingency access and identifies how the United States can counter political threats to access.
Nov 21, 2016
Report
Report
Workforce Downsizing and Restructuring in the Department of Defense: The Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment Program Versus Involuntary Separation
Assesses the cost-effectiveness for the U.S. Department of Defense of using incentives for voluntary separations, together with or instead of imposing involuntary separations, to reduce the size of its civilian workforce.
Oct 13, 2016
Report
Estimating the Value of Overseas Security Commitments
In an era of intensifying debate over U.S. funding and resources, RAND researchers explore whether and to what extent the United States derives economic benefits from its overseas security commitments.
Sep 22, 2016
Research Brief
Research Brief
Economic Benefits of U.S. Overseas Security Commitments Could Far Outweigh Costs
Amid intensifying debate over U.S. funding and resources, RAND researchers find that the economic benefits of U.S. overseas security commitments could far exceed the costs.
Sep 22, 2016
Report
Retention, Incentives, and DoD Experience Under the 40-Year Military Pay Table
In a multimethod analysis, RAND researchers assess whether the military should continue using its 40-year pay table to retain experienced personnel or whether such retention could be equally achieved with a 30-year pay table.
Aug 3, 2016
Research Brief
The Implications of Allowing Transgender Personnel to Serve Openly in the U.S. Military
To inform a potential change in policy, a RAND study examined the health care needs of transgender military personnel, costs of gender transition-related care and potential readiness implications of allowing transgender personnel to serve openly.
Jun 30, 2016
Report
Assessing the Implications of Allowing Transgender Personnel to Serve Openly
To inform a potential change in policy, a RAND study examined the health care needs of transgender military personnel, costs of gender transition-related care, and potential readiness implications of allowing transgender personnel to serve openly.
Jun 30, 2016
Report
Implications of Integrating Women into the Marine Corps Infantry
This study for the U.S. Marine Corps reviews the history of the integration of women into the U.S. military and explores the role of cohesion, the gender integration of foreign militaries and domestic police and fire departments, and potential costs.
Dec 3, 2015
Research Brief
Research Brief
Implications of Integrating Women into USMC Infantry
The Marine Corps Combat Development Command asked RAND to study the integration of women into infantry combat roles. Researchers reviewed the literature, conducted interviews, estimated costs, and developed an approach for monitoring integration.
Dec 3, 2015
Report
Report
Joint Precision Approach and Landing System Nunn-McCurdy Breach Root Cause Analysis and Portfolio Assessment Metrics for DoD Weapons Systems, Volume 8
The authors examine the Joint Precision Approach and Landing System Inc. 1A Nunn-McCurdy breach and document a methodology that can assess and summarize the overall performance of an acquisition portfolio at a point in time and over several years.
Oct 23, 2015
Tool
Tool
A Database of U.S. Security Treaties and Agreements
The U.S. portfolio of treaties and agreements can offer insights into the distribution and depth of U.S. international commitments, including its military commitments, relationships, capabilities, and vulnerabilities in a given area.
Dec 17, 2014
Report
Report
U.S. Security-Related Agreements in Force Since 1955: Introducing a New Database
The U.S. portfolio of treaties and agreements can offer insights into the distribution and depth of U.S. international commitments, including its military commitments, relationships, capabilities, and vulnerabilities in a given area.
Dec 17, 2014
Report
Management Perspectives Pertaining to Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 4: Program Manager Tenure, Oversight of Acquisition Category II Programs, and Framing Assumptions
Concerned with cost overruns in programs that breached Nunn-McCurdy thresholds, Congress directed investigation of the root causes of these overruns, and the authors examine various possible contributors to these breaches.
Oct 3, 2013
Report
A Cost Analysis of the U.S. Air Force Overseas Posture: Informing Strategic Choices
Estimates the costs associated with U.S. and overseas Air Force installations and units to provide insight into the costs and benefits of overseas basing.
Sep 16, 2013
Research Brief
Research Brief
Do U.S. Military Interventions Occur in Clusters?
This research challenges the assumption that the timing of deployments and their distribution over time are serially independent, arguing that military interventions occur in temporal clusters driven by the number of interventions in the recent past.
Jun 25, 2013
Report
Report
Are U.S. Military Interventions Contagious over Time? Intervention Timing and Its Implications for Force Planning
This report challenges the assumption that the timing of deployments and their distribution over time are serially independent, arguing that military interventions occur in temporal clusters driven by the number of interventions in the recent past.
May 17, 2013
Report
Report
Allocating Marine Expeditionary Unit Equipment and Personnel to Minimize Shortfalls
In many cases, the available space on a Marine Expeditionary Unit's ships falls far short of what is needed to transport the full set of required equipment. A RAND-developed software tool was designed to help limit the effects of these shortfalls.
Jul 19, 2012
Report
Report
The Extent of Restrictions on the Service of Active-Component Military Women
To support a congressionally mandated review of gender-based assignment restrictions in the U.S. military, RAND researchers described and quantified the positions that are closed to women in each of the services.
May 21, 2012
Report
Managing Diversity in Corporate America: An Exploratory Analysis
Develops a fact-based approach to diversity management in U.S. corporations and uses it to compare corporate practices.
Jan 1, 2008
Report
Report
Assessing the Assignment Policy for Army Women
Since current policies for assigning military women were issued, the Army has changed how it organizes and fights. Assessing the Assignment Policy for Army Women considers the appropriateness of these policies in light of recent operations in Iraq.
Apr 28, 2007
Report
Report
Indefinite Reenlistment and Noncommissioned Officers
Considers the utility of the U.S. Army shift, in 1998, of its senior enlisted force from a fixed enlistment contract system to indefinite reenlistment and the potential applicability to the other service branches.
Jan 29, 2007
Research Brief
Research Brief
Deployment, Stress, and Intention to Stay in the Military
This research brief summarizes a multidisciplinary study to provide insight into the effect of deployment on military personnel and permit several implications to be drawn for policy.
Jan 13, 2006
Report
Report
How Deployments Affect Service Members
Offers insights into the challenges faced by active-duty service members deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, the resiliency they and their families have shown in coping with these challenges, and the adequacy of defense manpower policy in assisting members and families.
2006
Report
Report
Stress and Performance: A Review of the Literature and Its Applicability to the Military
Analyzes literature on the relationships among stressors, stress, and performance and applies the most relevant findings to military operations and training.
Aug 15, 2005
Report
Report
Determinants of Productivity for Military Personnel: A Review of Findings on the Contribution of Experience, Training, and Aptitude to Military Performance
Discusses the primary literature and empirical findings related to three major factors that affect military personnel productivity: experience, training, and ability.
Mar 25, 2005
Report
Report
Attracting the Best: How the Military Competes for Information Technology Personnel
This report focuses on the factors affecting the supply of information technology (IT) personnel to the active duty enlisted force, and the findings point to the conclusion that the IT training opportunities offered by the military can help secure th
Aug 15, 2004
Research Brief
Research Brief
Can the Military Successfully Meet the Demand for Information Technology Personnel?
Despite concerns that the military might face a shortage of information technology (IT) personnel within the active duty enlisted force, the services have been successful in attracting and keeping IT personnel. IT training appears to play a critical ...
2004