Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing
The Trump administration faces the choice of losing quickly by withdrawing from Afghanistan; losing slowly by maintaining America's current, inadequate commitment; or not losing by increasing that commitment enough to maintain a stalemate on the battlefield.
Jun 23, 2017 The Cipher Brief
End the Korean War, Finally
Sixty-four years ago, the Korean War was suspended by a cease-fire. A peace treaty was never signed. Standing ready to formally end this old war may be the key to dismantling North Korea's nuclear program without starting a new one.
Jun 8, 2017 New York Times
Reining in Internet Abuse
The internet is being used for harmful, unethical, and illegal purposes. Examples include incitement and recruitment by terrorists, cyber bullying, and malicious fake news. Americans say they are unhappy with the tone of the online discourse, but are reluctant to consider potential remedies.
Mar 23, 2017 Inside Sources
Why a Dying Islamic State Could Be an Even Bigger Threat to America
The collapse of the so-called caliphate won't eliminate ISIS or similar groups. In the short term, the threat of ISIS-related attacks on the West may even grow.
Mar 13, 2017 Fortune
Rex Tillerson's Many Challenges
If confirmed as secretary of state, Rex Tillerson will face a broad array of challenges. One may be to lend the administration consistency, while closing at least some of the deals that President-elect Trump has promised.
Dec 24, 2016 U.S. News & World Report
Is the U.S. Abandoning the World Order It Created?
In the 20th century the United States created and expanded a world order that has provided security and prosperity, and it has borne much of the cost for sustaining it. Can that liberal global order be updated rather than jettisoned?
Nov 14, 2016 Newsweek
Time for a Do-Over on Brexit
As the right of the UK voters to decide on EU membership should be respected, so should their right to change their minds. There is no reason to regard their choice to leave as irreversible.
Jul 7, 2016 USA Today
Before Obama Leaves Office, Here's What He Should Do About Iran
The United States needs to pursue policies designed to preclude regional hegemony and create a balance of power in the Middle East, while also expressing support for human rights and engaging Iran diplomatically.
Jun 17, 2016 Washington Post
The Taliban's Persistent Threat
The United States and its NATO allies have been scaling back their military commitment in Afghanistan. The Taliban, in response, have been scaling up their operations, inflicting unprecedented heavy casualties on Afghan government forces and gaining increased control over much of the countryside.
Apr 21, 2016 The Cipher Brief
Foreign Policy Challenges on the Campaign Trail
Foreign and security policy will play a significant role in the run-up to the November U.S. presidential election. The campaign offers voters a wide spectrum of responses to the challenges of militant Islamism, ties with China and Russia, dealings with rogue states like North Korea, and free trade.
Feb 4, 2016 U.S. News & World Report
Pakistan Holds the Key to Peace in Afghanistan
Sustained and intensified U.S. pressure on Pakistan offers the only viable path to advancing the Afghan reconciliation process in a way that does not turn Afghanistan into a launching pad for terrorism and extremism.
Jan 11, 2016 Newsweek
A Realistic Peace Plan for Syria Needs to Begin with an Immediate Cease-Fire
To reach peace in Syria, the International Syria Support Group should concentrate on securing an immediate cease-fire and arranging for its enforcement, followed by further negotiations on the shape of a reconstituted Syrian state.
Dec 18, 2015 Washington Post
Partition Syria to Crush the Islamic State
The Islamic State will never join in any settlement. Peace in Syria therefore requires that everyone else stop fighting each other and join in suppressing the Islamic State.
Nov 1, 2015 USA Today
One State Over the Status Quo
If the next U.S. administration were to conclude that perpetuating the Israeli-Palestinian status quo for another eight years was unacceptable or unachievable, it might begin speaking of the one-state solution not as its preferred outcome, but as one more acceptable than no solution at all.
Aug 18, 2015 U.S. News & World Report
Reports of Global Disorder Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Deterring Russia, channeling growing Chinese power, and working with others to dismantle the Islamic State are daunting challenges, but not greater than rebuilding post-World War II Europe, containing the Soviet Union, ending the Cold War, and promoting democratic governance throughout much of the modern world.
Jul 22, 2015 Foreign Policy
What Afghanistan Wants from Washington
Afghan President Ghani's main mission in coming to Washington is to change the American view of Afghanistan, not so much inside the Obama administration as on Capitol Hill. This view remains a mostly negative one, formed by a seemingly endless war, high levels of government corruption, and repeated expressions of rank ingratitude on the part of Ghani's predecessor.
Mar 23, 2015 Politico
Q&A: What to Expect from Ghani's U.S. Visit
With Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's first official visit to the United States set to begin Sunday, a trio of RAND researchers discuss what to expect after the president and his chief executive officer, Abdullah Abdullah, arrive in Washington.
Mar 20, 2015 The RAND Blog
Why the Senate Intelligence Committee and the CIA May Both Be Right
Given that many questions of fact regarding the CIA's program of enhanced interrogation techniques can probably never be conclusively answered, the real issue comes down to a value judgment: whether inflicting physical pain on prisoners is an acceptable means of reducing the risk of terrorist attacks.
Dec 12, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
Afghanistan After America: A Fragile Stability
Since 2011, the United States, the Afghan government, and the Taliban have engaged in intermittent and often indirect talks about peace negotiations. It may be stalemate on the battlefield that eventually forces the parties to break this stalemate over the shape of a peace process.
Nov 14, 2014 The Mark News
Does ISIL Represent a Threat to the United States?
There are legitimate questions about how to best go about preventing ISIL from consolidating its control over Iraq and Levant. But this is very different from arguing that ISIL is not a threat and that the United States therefore should stand aside as it does so.
Oct 3, 2014 The Hill
Taking It One Crisis at a Time
The main difference between the immediate post-Cold War decade and the post-9/11 era as regards the variety of international challenges is that during that earlier period these challenges were faced and dealt with seriatim, rather than allowed to accumulate.
Aug 19, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
Learning Curve
The post-Vietnam “never again” attitude led to a severe atrophy of the U.S. military's counterinsurgency skills and it is quite possible that the U.S. military will go through a similar phase of unlearning over the next several years, writes James Dobbins.
Mar 14, 2013 Foreign Policy
Syria, the Case for Intervention
The longer this war drags on, the more radicalised become the insurgents, the more brutalised the population, the more inflamed the sectarian passions, and the more destabilised neighbouring societies, writes James Dobbins.
Dec 7, 2012 Financial Times
U.S. President Can Sustain Peace with China, Through Deterrence
The steady growth of China's military power raises important questions about the role that the next U.S. president should play in either containing China, cooperating with China, or trying to strike a balance between containment and cooperation, write James Dobbins and Roger Cliff.
Nov 6, 2012 The Orange County Register
The National Security Consensus
Today American public opinion is much less divided on international issues than it was four years ago. The two presidential candidates are much closer in their expressed views than were Obama and McCain, writes James Dobbins.
Nov 6, 2012 Foreign Policy
Rhetorical Questions
However one characterizes the strategic communications of the early Obama administration, there can be little doubt that by calibrating his messages more to foreign audiences, he increased regard for America around the globe, as confirmed in numerous opinion polls, writes James Dobbins.
Oct 26, 2012 Foreign Policy
Gate Crashing the Opposition: Why Washington Should Leave Regime Change to the Iranians
Emphasizing human rights will demonstrate to the Iranian people that the U.S. cares for their future. Threats of military action and war will only convince the Iranian opposition that America is a hostile power that supports regime change for its own narrow purposes, write James Dobbins and Alireza Nader.
Aug 23, 2012 Foreign Affairs
Conflict with China: What It Would Look Like, How to Avoid It
While China's overall military capabilities will not equal those of the United States anytime soon, it will more quickly achieve local superiority in its immediate neighborhood, first in and around Taiwan and then at somewhat greater distances, writes James Dobbins.
Aug 14, 2012 The Diplomat
Step Up Opposition Support
Well-meant advice and promises of postwar aid will mean much less in forging a relationship with the eventual rulers of Syria than decisive assistance now, writes James Dobbins.
Aug 9, 2012 NYTimes.com
Fiasco in the Levant
The United States' ability to shape future events in Syria will only be as great as the support it gives the rebels in their fight to topple Assad, writes James Dobbins.
Aug 9, 2012 Foreign Policy
The Case for Expanding Assistance to the Syrian Opposition
James Dobbins' testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the state of Syria.
Aug 1, 2012
Debating Hillary
Absent further developments or revelations, history will judge Hillary Clinton's tenure as secretary of state as solid if unspectacular, writes James Dobbins.
Jun 21, 2012 Foreign Policy
Obama Learned from Bush's Mistakes and Successes
On-the-job training is a necessary element of the American presidency, but so should be learning from the accomplishments, as well as the mistakes, of one's predecessor, writes James Dobbins.
May 2, 2012 U.S. News & World Report, Debate Club
U.S. and Israel Need to Agree on Strike Against Iran
Essential to any Israeli government decision to bomb Iran is confidence that whatever advice Washington might provide before the attack, the U.S. administration will feel bound to help Israel cope with the consequences of its action, writes James Dobbins.
Mar 5, 2012 U.S. News & World Report, Debate Club
Syria Is Trending Toward the Libya Model
If the Syrian opposition clearly asks for American help, if the rest of the Arab world supports such a military intervention, and if America's European allies prove ready to join in—and indeed lead—such an effort, the United States should contribute those military assets which only it can provide, writes James Dobbins.
Feb 14, 2012 U.S. News & World Report, Debate Club
Negotiating Peace in Afghanistan Without Repeating Vietnam
The Vietnam negotiations arose from a U.S. initiative, in response to domestic political imperatives and over repeated objections from the Saigon regime. By contrast, the incipient Afghan process has its roots in that society, not ours, writes James Dobbins.
Jan 13, 2012 The Washington Post
Iran's Self-Destructive Gamble
For all its bluster, the Iranian regime is more vulnerable than at any time in its 32-year history. Internally, Iran is constrained by deep political divisions, civil strife and a woeful economy, write Alireza Nader and James Dobbins.
Jan 6, 2012 NYTimes.com on January 5, 2012 and in International Herald Tribune
Dissuading Iran from the Bomb and Avoiding War
By refusing to face more squarely the probability that Iran will eventually acquire a nuclear weapons capability, the American and Israeli governments actually reduce their ability to dissuade Iran from crossing that threshold, writes James Dobbins.
Dec 2, 2011 Public Service Europe
An Attack Would Only Strengthen Iran's Influence
Reaction to a strike against Iran among neighboring populations would be almost uniformly hostile. The sympathy thereby aroused for Iran would make containment of Iranian influence much more difficult for Israel, for the U.S., and for the Arab regimes currently allied with Washington, writes James Dobbins.
Nov 16, 2011 U.S. News & World Report, Debate Club
Don't Overestimate Afghanistan Pessimism
Multiple polls commissioned by independent news and other organizations consistently reveal an Afghan population that sees improvement in its well-being, has a favorable view of its government and is optimistic about its future, writes James Dobbins.
Sep 29, 2011 Reuters blog, The Great Debate
Libyan Nation Building After Qaddafi
If Libya is to have a chance of replacing Qaddafi with something better, the United States, its allies, and the rest of the international community will need to pivot very quickly from the rather straightforward requirements of war fighting to taking seriously the complex and demanding tasks of peace building, write James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey.
Aug 23, 2011 Foreign Affairs
Afghanistan's Reasons for Optimism
Afghans in general are much more optimistic about their future than we Americans are about ours, write James Dobbins and Craig Charney.
Apr 1, 2011 The Washington Post
Thinking Twice about Libyan Engagement
We have learned over the past couple of decades that it is deceptively easy for the world's only superpower to topple objectionable regimes—but a good deal harder to replace them with something better, writes James Dobbins.
Mar 15, 2011 RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org
Your COIN Is No Good Here
One can legitimately argue for reducing the United States' commitment to the Afghan war, but it makes no sense to denigrate the tactics and techniques best designed to counter an insurgency, writes James Dobbins.
Oct 26, 2010 Foreign Affairs
A To-Do List for Shoring Up Haiti
It is not enough to raise stronger buildings. What Haiti truly needs is a more resilient and effective government, write James Dobbins and Laurel Miller.
Aug 23, 2010 Los Angeles Times
The Afghanistan Clock
By replacing Gen. Stanley McChrystal with Gen. David Petraeus, U.S. President Barack Obama has treated the most recent symptom of his Afghan malaise—an insubordinate, or at least indiscreet, general. He has not, however, addressed the underlying malady, writes James Dobbins.
Jun 25, 2010 ForeignPolicy.com
Talking to the Taliban
President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan wants to talk to the Taliban, and that's going to be a thorny issue for President Obama when the two leaders meet on Wednesday, writes James Dobbins.
May 12, 2010 International Herald Tribune
Dueling Doctrines: Mullen vs. Powell? Or Mullen & Powell vs. Rumsfeld?
Reflecting changes in the American approach to counterinsurgency, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen recently enunciated a new and apparently more restrained doctrine for the use of armed force. But is this really a repudiation of the so-called Powell Doctrine, asks James Dobbins.
Mar 17, 2010 Proceedings, a magazine of the U.S. Naval Institute
Skip the Graft
The latest disaster to befall Haiti creates the opportunity to combine bipartisan accord on Haiti in Washington with keen and perhaps sustained American public interest, writes James Dobbins.
Jan 17, 2010 The New York Times
When Generals and Ambassadors Feud
In 2007 in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker set a model for civil-military collaboration: They never let daylight show between their positions. General McChrystal and Ambassador Karl Eikenberry have diverged from this model, writes James Dobbins.
Nov 13, 2009 Foreign Policy
Our Man in Kabul
The last thing Karzai, NATO, and the United States can afford is the emergence of a renewed northern alliance, writes James Dobbins.
Nov 4, 2009 Foreign Affairs
Afghanistan: Echoes of Vietnam
Now that U.S. involvement in Iraq has begun to require fewer resources, Afghanistan is the new focus of American and European anti-war sentiment, and increasingly Obama's critics are drawing on the analogy of Vietnam, writes James Dobbins.
Oct 8, 2009 The Huffington Post
Real Threats, Real Fears, Real Defenses
Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the United States would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist, writes James Dobbins.
Sep 21, 2009 International Herald Tribune
Ultimate Exit Strategy
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described the upcoming high-level conference on Afghanistan at The Hague as a "big-tent meeting, with all the parties who have a stake and an interest in Afghanistan." With the situation in that country growing more precarious by the day, those attending this meeting must also think big, write Karl F. Inderfurth and James Dobbins.
Mar 26, 2009 International Herald Tribune
To Talk With Iran, Stop Not Talking
If the dominant imperative is to stop Iran from getting the bomb, every month counts. Perhaps the simplest -- and certainly the quickest -- way to launch a dialogue with Iran, and the one least likely to play unhelpfully into the upcoming Iranian election, would be to simply stop not talking to Tehran, writes James Dobbins.
Mar 3, 2009 The Washington Post
Dealing with Iran: The Case for Talking
Opponents of war with Iran who take their stand on the grounds that Washington should talk to Tehran first are in danger of finding themselves trapped within a broadening national consensus that could lead to an unwinnable war, writes James Dobbins.
Jun 30, 2008 International Herald Tribune
An Independent Kosovo Was a Part of the U.N.'s Plan
Diplomatic wrangling over Kosovo's declaration of independence this week has created a good deal of misunderstanding about the U.N. Security Council Resolution that defines that society's current status and future evolution, writes James Dobbins.
Feb 25, 2008 Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Not That Bad a Legacy, After All
George W. Bush may leave a positive foreign policy legacy after all. A year ago this would have seemed difficult to credit... [Y]et over this period, Bush has put in place a series of more pragmatic policies from which even a Democratic successor will have a hard time moving away, writes James Dobbins.
Jan 17, 2008 International Herald Tribune
The Right Way to Withdraw
We're involved too deeply in Iraq and Afghanistan to exit suddenly without fixing our mess.
Oct 14, 2007 Los Angeles Times
Ready for Another Mideast War?
The Bush administration has acknowledged that Israel attacked Syria last week, but has not given any indication that the United States sought to prevent it, or discourage a repetition, writes James Dobbins.
Sep 20, 2007 International Herald Tribune
Are the Sunnis Changing Sides
Are the Sunnis Changing Sides, in the International Herald Tribune
Aug 17, 2007 International Herald Tribune
How to Talk to Iran
How to Talk to Iran, in Washingtonpost.com
Jul 22, 2007 Washingtonpost.com
Who Lost Iraq?
Published commentary by RAND staff: Who Lost Iraq?
Apr 16, 2007 International Herald Tribune
My Enemy's Enemy
Published commentary by RAND staff: My Enemy's Enemy, in International Herald Tribune.
Feb 27, 2007 International Herald Tribune
A Bad Plan for the Middle East
Published commentary by RAND staff: A Bad Plan for the Middle East, in International Herald Tribune.
Jan 17, 2007 International Herald Tribune
America Needs to Pick Its Fights Carefully
Published commentary by RAND staff: America Needs to Pick Its Fights Carefully, in International Herald Tribune.
Aug 13, 2006 International Herald Tribune
America Needs to Pick Its Fights Carefully
Published commentary by RAND staff: America Needs to Pick Its Fights Carefully, in International Herald Tribune.
May 2, 2006 International Herald Tribune
Dialogue Can Stop Iran at the Nuclear Threshold
Published commentary by RAND staff: Dialogue Can Stop Iran at the Nuclear Threshold, in the Financial Times.
Apr 4, 2006 Financial Times
A Far too Costly Pentagon
Published commentary by RAND staff: A Far too Costly Pentagon, in United Press International.
Feb 27, 2006 United Press International
Give Haiti United Message from D.C.
Published commentary by RAND staff: Give Haiti United Message from D.C., in the Miami Herald.
Feb 26, 2006 Miami Herald
Amateur Hour in Iraq
Published commentary by RAND staff: Amateur Hour in Iraq, in United Press International.
Feb 10, 2006 United Press International
Iraq Needs Unity
Published commentary by RAND staff: Iraq Needs Unity in United Press International.
Dec 30, 2005 United Press International
NATO's Role in Nation-building
Published commentary by RAND staff: NATO's Role in Nation-building in NATO Review.
Dec 8, 2005 NATO Review
Little to Argue About on Iraq
Published commentary by RAND staff: Little to Argue About on Iraq in the Hill.
Dec 7, 2005 The Hill
Bush Needs Allies Near Iraq, However Unsavoury
Published commentary by RAND staff: Puts & Calls: Bush Needs Allies Near Iraq, However Unsavoury in the Financial Times.
Nov 1, 2005 Financial Times
NATO Peacekeepers Need a Partner
Published commentary by RAND staff: NATO Peacekeepers Need a Partner in the International Herald Tribune.
Sep 30, 2005 International Herald Tribune
Iraq's Constitution: From Dayton to Baghdad
Published commentary by RAND staff: IIraq's Constitution: From Dayton to Baghdad appearing in the International Herald Tribune.
Aug 27, 2005 International Herald Tribune
America Is Punishing Germany for Its Iraq Opposition
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Jul 12, 2005 Financial Times
Lessons to Be Learned from Conflicts in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Jun 28, 2005 NPR
Majority Rule That Respects Minorities
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Jun 11, 2005 International Herald Tribune
Iraq: Democracy vs. Power Sharing
Published commentary by RAND staff.
May 7, 2005 International Herald Tribune
Upcoming Iraqi Elections Could Make Ethnic Strife There Even Worse
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Jan 26, 2005 NPR
'Oil for Food' Worked
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Dec 10, 2004 Washington Post
In Iran, the U.S. Can't Stay on the Sidelines
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Dec 2, 2004 International Herald Tribune
We're All Multilateralists Now
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Nov 13, 2004 International Herald Tribune
The Kosovars Need to Know Where They're Headed
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Oct 29, 2004 International Herald Tribune
Elections and Nation-building
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Oct 20, 2004 International Herald Tribune
Safety First
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Sep 22, 2004 New York Times
Nation-Building Returns to Favour
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Aug 11, 2004 Financial Times
Kosovo: Delaying is the Least-Bad Option
The recent outbreak of ethnic violence in Kosovo has led to a good deal of soul-searching within the international community. A noble experiment in building a multi-ethnic Kosovo seems to have ended in failure. European governments are rethinking their approach. Talk of partition is gaining currency.
Aug 2, 2004 International Herald Tribune
Securing the Peace Will Require Finesse
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Jun 27, 2004 Orange County Register
Gaining The Iraqis' Toleration
Published commentary by RAND staff.
May 28, 2004 Washington Post
Changing Course In Iraq Is Not an Option
Published commentary by RAND staff.
May 17, 2004 The Financial Times
Time to Deal With Iran
Published commentary by RAND staff.
May 6, 2004 The Washington Post
A Perilous Journey from Sovereignty to the Polls
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Mar 18, 2004 Financial Times
A Way Out for Haiti
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Feb 19, 2004 New York Times
A Perilous Dialogue of Pessimists
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Feb 4, 2004 Financial Times
UN Man for Baghdad: Bringing the Afghan Experience to Iraq
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Jan 20, 2004 International Herald Tribune
Carrots Are as Vital as Sticks in the Balkans
In a collective display of wisdom and will in the Balkans, the U.S. and Europe imposed an uneasy peace upon the war-torn region in the second half of the 1990s.
Jan 6, 2004 Financial Times
We've Been Down This Road Before
commentaries by RAND Staff: insightful commentaries on current events, published in newspapers, magazines and journals worldwide.
Jul 17, 2003 Los Angeles Times
America's Record on Nation Building
commentaries by RAND Staff: insightful commentaries on current events, published in newspapers, magazines and journals worldwide.
Jun 13, 2003 The New York Times
And, Now: The Battle For Peace and Order
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Apr 11, 2003 New York Newsday
Europe is Split in a Number of Different Ways
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Feb 18, 2003 Albany Times Union
Afghanistan's Faltering Reconstruction
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Sep 12, 2002 New York Times
