David A. Shlapak

Senior Defense Researcher

Washington Office

Education

B.A. in political science, Northwestern University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

David A. Shlapak (he/him) is a senior defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Since joining RAND in 1982, he has led research and published on topics ranging from counterterrorism to nuclear strategy.

His areas of research focus on the return of great power competititon in the global security environment. His current work includes wargaming scenarios of U.S. conflict with China or Russia, the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. strategy, and the U.S.-China technology competition.

From 2014 to 2018, Shlapak was a founding codirector of the RAND Center for Gaming, one of six Methods Centers under the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He is a former acting director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program in Project AIR FORCE.

Shlapak holds a B.A. in political science from Northwestern University and did his graduate work at UCLA.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Shlapak, David A., The Russian Challenge, RAND Corporation (PE-250-A), 2018

Shlapak, David A., Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win, RAND Corporation (CT-467), 2017

Shlapak, David A., Michael Johnson, Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics, RAND Corporation (RR-1253), 2016

David A. Shlapak, "Towards a More Modest American Strategy," Survival, 57(2), 2015

Mikolic-Torreira, Igor, Don Snyder, Michelle Price, David A. Shlapak, Sina Beaghley, Megan Bishop, Sarah Harting, Jenny Oberholtzer, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Cortney Weinbaum, and Emma Westerman, Exploring Cyber Security Policy Options in Australia, RAND Corporation (RR-2008), 2017

Henry, Ryan, Steven Berner, and David A. Shlapak, Serious Analytical Gaming: The 360° Game for Multidimensional Analysis of Complex Problems, RAND Corporation (RR-1764), 2017

Kelly, Terrence K., James Dobbins, David A. Shlapak, David C. Gompert, Eric Heginbotham, Peter Chalk, and Lloyd Thrall, The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030-2040, RAND Corporation (RR-474), 2014

Shlapak, David A., How Not to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb: A Realistic Approach for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Weapons, RAND Corporation (PE-A1495-1), 2021

Honors & Awards

2016 Gold Medal Award, RAND

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Australian Broadcasting Corporation; BBC Radio; CBS News Online; KCRW, To The Point; Lietuvos Radijas; PBS NewsHour Online; Press Play, KCRW; Sinclair Broadcast Group; WhoWhatWhy; WNYC, New York Public Radio; Wprost.pl

Commentary: Newsweek; United Press International; U.S. News & World Report; War on the Rocks

Commentary

Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Security Cooperation

A 'Glass Half-Full': Next Steps for Enhancing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
The United States and key allies have taken steps toward redressing the imbalance in military power between NATO and Russia in Northeastern Europe. But NATO's defense planners must be clear-eyed about what remains to be done.
Feb 12, 2018
The RAND Blog
United States

The Made-in-America Global Security and Economic System Still Serves U.S. Interests
The next U.S. president will have many willing partners and an opportunity to expand the global system of security and economic institutions in a way that will help the United States and the world for decades.
Oct 26, 2016
The Cleveland Plain Dealer
Russia

The West Must Do Far More to Keep Putin at Bay
Russia is more willing than the West to use military power, even though it has less of it. The West should reconsider whether its efforts to deter Russian military interference are enough.
Aug 27, 2016
Newsweek
Wargaming

Gaming and Public Policy: Q&A with David Shlapak
David Shlapak discusses how using games in research can help improve decisionmaking across a wide range of areas, including national security, health care, and climate change.
Aug 11, 2016
Wargaming

In Defense of a Wargame: Bolstering Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
A series of wargames examined the potential results of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. While such an invasion appears unlikely, its consequences would be so dangerous that not taking steps to deter it more robustly would be imprudent.
Jun 14, 2016
War on the Rocks
Russia

Outnumbered, Outranged, and Outgunned: How Russia Defeats NATO
Today NATO is outnumbered, outranged, and outgunned by Russia in Europe and beset by a number of compounding factors that make the situation worse. But it is possible to begin restoring a more robust deterrent posture and to do so at a price tag that appears affordable.
Apr 21, 2016
War on the Rocks
Wargaming

Gaming the System: Obstacles to Reinvigorating Defense Wargaming
Reinvigorating wargaming in the defense community offers great potential value given the complex strategic situation that the U.S. faces today. DoD should educate sponsors and consumers about the appropriate use of wargames, set realistic expectations, and build the right amount of risk acceptance into its gaming enterprise.
Feb 18, 2016
War on the Rocks
Armored Vehicles

Destroy ISIL's Heavy Weapons and Vehicles: Level the Playing Field
More than any other option, employing air power decisively to deny ISIL the ability to use its armor and artillery has the potential to immediately and dramatically shift the battlefield balance against it.
Oct 20, 2014
War on the Rocks
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

A Dispatch from the Ukrainian Front
If Putin sought advice about what NATO is thinking, his Russian Western Front Military commander might say that given its current political indecisiveness and lack of military readiness, NATO lacks the capability to launch a credible intervention, but they should watch for changes in the alliance posture.
Sep 5, 2014
U.S. News & World Report
Security Cooperation

Russia Is Outmanned and Outgunned
Despite the smaller number of U.S. troops in Europe, the military balance there is far more favorable to NATO today than it was when nearly 10 times as many American soldiers, sailors and airmen were stationed on the continent.
Apr 10, 2014
U.S. News & World Report
International Diplomacy

America's Delicate Dance in the Pacific
Even if Japan and China ease the tensions in their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyus islands, the United States should gird itself for further uncomfortable contingencies in the coming years, writes David Shlapak.
Mar 28, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
America's Long Wars
Published commentary by RAND staff: America's Long Wars, in United Press International.
Feb 1, 2007
United Press International

Publications

Report
How Not to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb: A Realistic Approach for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Weapons
In this paper, the author argues that, instead of continuing failed approaches, the United States and its allies should adopt a "something-for-something" strategy that establishes a framework for managing North Korea's nuclear capability.
Nov 3, 2021
Report
NATO's Amphibious Forces: Command and Control of a Multibrigade Alliance Task Force
RAND researchers facilitated three wargaming events to explore command and control of NATO's amphibious forces in major combat operations. The authors note results and implications for future force development.
Jun 27, 2019
Report
America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity
This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.
May 7, 2019
Report
The Russian Challenge
This RAND Arroyo Perspective updates previous analysis published by the RAND Corporation about Russia as a source of military competition and potential conflict with the United States and its allies.
Jun 4, 2018
Report
Exploring Cyber Security Policy Options in Australia
RAND conducted a cyber security exercise in Canberra, Australia to explore opportunities to improve cyber security, assess the implications of possible solutions, and inform Australia's next national Cyber Security Strategy.
Aug 7, 2017
Report
Serious Analytical Gaming: The 360° Game for Multidimensional Analysis of Complex Problems
This report is intended to help decisionmakers who would like to design and run a 360° Game, which can be used in multidimensional analysis of complex problems and allows participants to investigate a problem from a variety of perspectives.
May 30, 2017
Testimony
Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win: Addendum
Document submitted April 17, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.
May 2, 2017
Testimony
Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win
Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.
Mar 1, 2017
Report
A Framework for Exploring Cybersecurity Policy Options
RAND conducted two discovery games to explore possible solutions for improving cybersecurity, assess their implications, and develop an initial framework to support debate and inform decisions regarding cybersecurity policies and practices.
Nov 23, 2016
Multimedia
Rethinking Russia's Threat to NATO
RAND researchers discuss a series of wargames that examined the probable outcome of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The wargames showed that a near-term Russian invasion could reach the Estonian and Latvian capitals in less than 60 hours.
Sep 30, 2016
Report
Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics
This report describes the implications of a series of war games that examined the threat Russia may present to NATO's three Baltic members: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Jan 29, 2016
Research Brief
Chinese Attacks on U.S. Air Bases in Asia: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to disrupt or degrade U.S. operations by attacking air bases.
Sep 14, 2015
Research Brief
Chinese Threats to U.S. Surface Ships: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to target U.S. surface ships, especially aircraft carriers.
Sep 14, 2015
Research Brief
Tallying the U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Relative Capabilities and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has focused on new weapon systems, with little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military forces and development. This brief summarizes a RAND Project AIR FORCE study that seeks to fill this gap.
Sep 14, 2015
Research Brief
U.S. and Chinese Air Superiority Capabilities: An Assessment of Relative Advantage, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to contest U.S. air superiority in an Asian conflict.
Sep 14, 2015
Report
The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017
A RAND study analyzed trends in the development of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (centered on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) and multiple types of operations from 1996 to 2017.
Sep 14, 2015
Report
Enhanced Army Airborne Forces: A New Joint Operational Capability
RAND examined options to increase the mobility, protection, and firepower of U.S. Army airborne forces, given likely future missions and threats, and identified a concept for enhancing today's forces by adding a light armored infantry capability. The near-term focus also meant that the current Air Force airlift fleet was an important consideration, since Army airborne forces rely on Air Force transport aircraft to deploy.
Jan 23, 2015
Research Brief
Developing a U.S. Strategy for Dealing with China — Now and into the Future
U.S. military strategy in Asia should include a framework that allows the United States and China to pursue common and individual goals, deters China's use of force to intimidate its neighbors, and postures U.S. forces to support partner militaries.
Sep 2, 2014
Report
The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030-2040
Looking to the 2030-2040 time frame, the U.S. Army will play an important role in helping U.S. policy and military strategy strike a balance between cooperating with China and deterring potential Chinese expansionism.
Sep 2, 2014
Research Brief
What’s the Potential for Conflict with China, and How Can It Be Avoided?
Presents scenarios to illustrate possible sources of military conflict with China over the next thirty years.
Apr 17, 2012
Report
Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence
Presents scenarios to illustrate possible sources of military conflict with China over the next thirty years.
Oct 10, 2011
Testimony
Questions of Balance: The Shifting Cross-Strait Balance and Implications for the U.S.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on March 18, 2010.
Mar 18, 2010
Report
A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute
Examines the changing political dynamic between China and Taiwan, evaluates key aspects of the cross-strait military balance, and considers how Taiwan might be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt.
Jul 23, 2009
Research Brief
How Taiwan's Status Is Resolved Will Determine Whether U.S.-China Relations Are Cooperative or Hostile
This research brief examines how U.S.-China relations would be affected by the manner in which Taiwan's status is resolved.
May 22, 2007
Report
U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan's Status
Identifies the principal pathways by which Taiwan's status might be resolved and analyzes the likely impact on U.S.-China relations.
May 12, 2007
Report
A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq
The promotion of democracy and freedom abroad will continue to require changes in how U.S. armed forces are organized and employed and how the services relate to one another and to U.S. allies.
Apr 8, 2007
Research Brief
America's Security Challenges Require a New Division of Labor Among the Armed Forces
This research brief assesses the primary challenges to U.S. security in the emerging security environment and offers suggestions for how the U.S. strategy and the defense program should be adjusted in order to meet these challenges.
Mar 27, 2007
Research Brief
Emerging Security Environment Requires Sophisticated Intelligence, Rapid Response, and Long-Range Capabilities
This research brief offers recommendations related to the future security environment and the balance of demands between the needs of major combat operations and those of counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and nation-assistance.
Jul 19, 2006
Report
Shaping the Future Air Force
Examines how U.S national security strategy and the USAF might change to better confront new challenges presented by future major regional conflicts and counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and nation-assistance operations.
Jun 29, 2006
Report
U.S. Interests in Central Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles
Examines long-term U.S. military interests in Central Asia.
Dec 6, 2005
Research Brief
U.S. Military Has Important but Limited Long-Term Role in Central Asia
This research brief analyzes the implications of economic, political, and social trends in Central Asia and examines the U.S. military role in the area.
2005
Report
A Global Access Strategy for the U.S. Air Force
A set of recommendations for a global access strategy to render the USAF better equipped to meet its access and basing needs and hence to perform its missions both rapidly and effectively.
2002
Report
Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.
2002
Report
The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture
The past 20 years have been a time of relative peace in Asia and, notwithstanding the 1997-1998 financial crisis, a period of robust economic growth as well.
2001
Report
Persian Gulf Security: Improving Allied Military Contributions
The authors lay out a practical and realistic blueprint for securing improved European force contributions to Persian Gulf security that appears well within the allies' political, financial, and military means.
2001
Report
Dire Strait? : Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy
This report analyzes the steps Taiwan should take to bolster the odds in its favor should a conflict with the mainland occur and describes how the United States can most effectivelycontribute in both peace and crisis.
2000
Journal Article
Global Access: Strategy 2000
Defense basing decisions reflect both military needs and political conditions.
2000
Report
The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications
China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development.
1999
Report
The Implications of the Possible End of the Arab-Israeli Conflict for Gulf Security
This report is intended to help the U.S. military — especially the U.S. Air Force — capitalize on changes in the Middle East security environment that may come about after a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.
1997
Report
Enhancing Air Power’s Contribution Against Light Infantry Targets
The objective of this effort was to explore the signatures and vulnerabilities of adversary light forces, to identify promising sensor and weapon technologies applicable to this target set, and to develop new concepts of operation (OPCONs).
1996
Research Brief
Finding Needles in Haystacks: Enhancing Air Power's Contribution Against Light Infantry
Discusses the challenges posed by light infantry opponents and presents new operational concepts that may help meet such challenges.
1996
Report
A Framework for Precision Conventional Strike in Post-Cold War Military Strategy
Examines the value PCS weapons have in future military strategies and draws inferences about investment of system development and acquisition dollars.
1996
Report
''Check Six begins on the ground'': Responding to the Evolving Ground Threat to U.S. Air Force Bases
Explores the possibility that future adversaries will use ground attacks on U.S. Air Force (USAF) bases as at least a partial countermeasure to overwhelming U.S. air superiority.
1995
Report
Perspectives on Theater Air Campaign Planning
This report describes the findings of an independent, exploratory look at how the United States Air Force plans and executes air campaigns and operations.
1995
Research Brief
Planning for Theater Air Campaigns
Interviewed planners at U.S. Air Force organizations -- at home and abroad -- to gain insights into air campaign planning and how the process might be improved.
1995
Report
Back to First Principles: U.S. Strategic Forces in the Emerging Environment
This report presents an approach to thinking about U.S. strategic forces in the 1990s.
1993
Report
Assessing the Structure and Mix of Future Active and Reserve Forces: Final Report to the Secretary of Defense
This study examines the structure and appropriate mix of active and reserve forces. It analyzes policy issues surrounding the Total Force (that is, active and reserve forces), to include history and effectiveness during the Persian Gulf War.
1992
Report
Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough?
Describes a methodology for estimating the force levels that would be needed to defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf crisis, and it describes the results of a preliminary analysis performed using the methodology.
1991
Report
Adapting the RAND Strategy Assessment System to Force Assessment Studies in the Joint Staff
Documents the results of an effort undertaken for the Capabilities Assessment Division (CAD) of the Joint Staff.
1991
Report
Sample Campaign Plans and Staff Assessments for NATO's Southern Region
This Note is the product of an intensive six-month effort by the RAND Strategy Assessment Center in support of the National Defense University's (NDU) spring 1988 Allied Forces Southern Europe seminar war game.
1989
Report
Green Agent User's Guide
This Note is a primer on the use of Green Agent, the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's model of nonsuperpower political-military behavior in crisis and conflict.
Nov 1, 1988
Research Brief
Building Confidence and Security in Europe
The value of NATO’s proposal at the Conference on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures and Disarmament in Europe in Stockholm may be judged as marginal and somewhat risky to the Alliance.
1987
Report
Testing the Effects of Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in a Crisis: Two Political-Military Games
Presents the results of two political-military games played at RAND in the spring of 1986 to investigate how possible European confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) might affect interaction between the United States and the Soviet Union ...
1987
Report
The RAND Strategy Assessment System's Green Agent Model of Third-Country Behavior in Superpower Crises and Conflict
This Note, a revision of N-2363, provides improved figures, up-to-date RAND Strategy Assessment System terminology, and includes updated decision rules valid as of July 1986.
Sep 1, 1986
Report
Plan Synchronization in the RSAC Environment
Addresses some of the issues involved in the synchronization of Analytic War Plans (AWPs) within the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's (RSAC) automated war-gaming system.
1986
Report
The RAND Strategy Assessment Center and the future of simulation and gaming
This paper was originally presented at a meeting of the Section for Military Studies of the International Studies Association at the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana on November 9, 1985. It describes the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's (R...
1985