David A. Shlapak

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

A 'Glass Half-Full': Next Steps for Enhancing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

The United States and key allies have taken steps toward redressing the imbalance in military power between NATO and Russia in Northeastern Europe. But NATO's defense planners must be clear-eyed about what remains to be done.

The Made-in-America Global Security and Economic System Still Serves U.S. Interests

The next U.S. president will have many willing partners and an opportunity to expand the global system of security and economic institutions in a way that will help the United States and the world for decades.

The West Must Do Far More to Keep Putin at Bay

Russia is more willing than the West to use military power, even though it has less of it. The West should reconsider whether its efforts to deter Russian military interference are enough.

Gaming and Public Policy: Q&A with David Shlapak

David Shlapak discusses how using games in research can help improve decisionmaking across a wide range of areas, including national security, health care, and climate change.

In Defense of a Wargame: Bolstering Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

A series of wargames examined the potential results of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. While such an invasion appears unlikely, its consequences would be so dangerous that not taking steps to deter it more robustly would be imprudent.

Outnumbered, Outranged, and Outgunned: How Russia Defeats NATO

Today NATO is outnumbered, outranged, and outgunned by Russia in Europe and beset by a number of compounding factors that make the situation worse. But it is possible to begin restoring a more robust deterrent posture and to do so at a price tag that appears affordable.

Gaming the System: Obstacles to Reinvigorating Defense Wargaming

Reinvigorating wargaming in the defense community offers great potential value given the complex strategic situation that the U.S. faces today. DoD should educate sponsors and consumers about the appropriate use of wargames, set realistic expectations, and build the right amount of risk acceptance into its gaming enterprise.

Destroy ISIL's Heavy Weapons and Vehicles: Level the Playing Field

More than any other option, employing air power decisively to deny ISIL the ability to use its armor and artillery has the potential to immediately and dramatically shift the battlefield balance against it.

A Dispatch from the Ukrainian Front

If Putin sought advice about what NATO is thinking, his Russian Western Front Military commander might say that given its current political indecisiveness and lack of military readiness, NATO lacks the capability to launch a credible intervention, but they should watch for changes in the alliance posture.

Russia Is Outmanned and Outgunned

Despite the smaller number of U.S. troops in Europe, the military balance there is far more favorable to NATO today than it was when nearly 10 times as many American soldiers, sailors and airmen were stationed on the continent.

America's Delicate Dance in the Pacific

Even if Japan and China ease the tensions in their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyus islands, the United States should gird itself for further uncomfortable contingencies in the coming years, writes David Shlapak.

America's Long Wars

Published commentary by RAND staff: America's Long Wars, in United Press International.

Report

Designing A Strange Game: A Nuclear Wargame for the 21st Century

This report details the theoretical motivation and design of a wargame meant to address the lack of serious games that consider nuclear weapon employment and tools available to teach stakeholders about the challenges of nuclear weapon employment.

Report

Network Logistics Games: Design and Implementation

This report details a logistics game design that is flexible enough to accommodate a variety of scenarios, objectives, and modifications.

Commentary

How Not to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb: A Realistic Approach for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Weapons

In this paper, the author argues that, instead of continuing failed approaches, the United States and its allies should adopt a "something-for-something" strategy that establishes a framework for managing North Korea's nuclear capability.

Report

NATO's Amphibious Forces: Command and Control of a Multibrigade Alliance Task Force

RAND researchers facilitated three wargaming events to explore command and control of NATO's amphibious forces in major combat operations. The authors note results and implications for future force development.

Report

America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity

This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.

Commentary

The Russian Challenge

This RAND Arroyo Perspective updates previous analysis published by the RAND Corporation about Russia as a source of military competition and potential conflict with the United States and its allies.

Report

Exploring Cyber Security Policy Options in Australia

RAND conducted a cyber security exercise in Canberra, Australia to explore opportunities to improve cyber security, assess the implications of possible solutions, and inform Australia's next national Cyber Security Strategy.

Report

Serious Analytical Gaming: The 360° Game for Multidimensional Analysis of Complex Problems

This report is intended to help decisionmakers who would like to design and run a 360° Game, which can be used in multidimensional analysis of complex problems and allows participants to investigate a problem from a variety of perspectives.

Testimony

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win: Addendum

Document submitted April 17, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Testimony

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Report

A Framework for Exploring Cybersecurity Policy Options

RAND conducted two discovery games to explore possible solutions for improving cybersecurity, assess their implications, and develop an initial framework to support debate and inform decisions regarding cybersecurity policies and practices.

Report

Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics

This report describes the implications of a series of war games that examined the threat Russia may present to NATO's three Baltic members: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Research Brief

Chinese Attacks on U.S. Air Bases in Asia: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017

Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to disrupt or degrade U.S. operations by attacking air bases.

Research Brief

Chinese Threats to U.S. Surface Ships: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017

Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to target U.S. surface ships, especially aircraft carriers.

Research Brief

Tallying the U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Relative Capabilities and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017

Discussion about China's military modernization has focused on new weapon systems, with little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military forces and development. This brief summarizes a RAND Project AIR FORCE study that seeks to fill this gap.

Research Brief

U.S. and Chinese Air Superiority Capabilities: An Assessment of Relative Advantage, 1996–2017

Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to contest U.S. air superiority in an Asian conflict.

Report

The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017

A RAND study analyzed trends in the development of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (centered on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) and multiple types of operations from 1996 to 2017.

Report

Enhanced Army Airborne Forces: A New Joint Operational Capability

RAND examined options to increase the mobility, protection, and firepower of U.S. Army airborne forces, given likely future missions and threats, and identified a concept for enhancing today's forces by adding a light armored infantry capability. The near-term focus also meant that the current Air Force airlift fleet was an important consideration, since Army airborne forces rely on Air Force transport aircraft to deploy.

Research Brief

Developing a U.S. Strategy for Dealing with China — Now and into the Future

U.S. military strategy in Asia should include a framework that allows the United States and China to pursue common and individual goals, deters China's use of force to intimidate its neighbors, and postures U.S. forces to support partner militaries.

Report

The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030-2040

Looking to the 2030-2040 time frame, the U.S. Army will play an important role in helping U.S. policy and military strategy strike a balance between cooperating with China and deterring potential Chinese expansionism.

Research Brief

What’s the Potential for Conflict with China, and How Can It Be Avoided?

Presents scenarios to illustrate possible sources of military conflict with China over the next thirty years.

Report

Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence

Presents scenarios to illustrate possible sources of military conflict with China over the next thirty years.

Testimony

Questions of Balance: The Shifting Cross-Strait Balance and Implications for the U.S.

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on March 18, 2010.

Report

A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute

Examines the changing political dynamic between China and Taiwan, evaluates key aspects of the cross-strait military balance, and considers how Taiwan might be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt.

Research Brief

How Taiwan's Status Is Resolved Will Determine Whether U.S.-China Relations Are Cooperative or Hostile

This research brief examines how U.S.-China relations would be affected by the manner in which Taiwan's status is resolved.

Report

U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan's Status

Identifies the principal pathways by which Taiwan's status might be resolved and analyzes the likely impact on U.S.-China relations.

Report

A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq

The promotion of democracy and freedom abroad will continue to require changes in how U.S. armed forces are organized and employed and how the services relate to one another and to U.S. allies.

Research Brief

America's Security Challenges Require a New Division of Labor Among the Armed Forces

This research brief assesses the primary challenges to U.S. security in the emerging security environment and offers suggestions for how the U.S. strategy and the defense program should be adjusted in order to meet these challenges.

Research Brief

Emerging Security Environment Requires Sophisticated Intelligence, Rapid Response, and Long-Range Capabilities

This research brief offers recommendations related to the future security environment and the balance of demands between the needs of major combat operations and those of counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and nation-assistance.

Report

Shaping the Future Air Force

Examines how U.S national security strategy and the USAF might change to better confront new challenges presented by future major regional conflicts and counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and nation-assistance operations.

Report

U.S. Interests in Central Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles

Examines long-term U.S. military interests in Central Asia.

Research Brief

U.S. Military Has Important but Limited Long-Term Role in Central Asia

This research brief analyzes the implications of economic, political, and social trends in Central Asia and examines the U.S. military role in the area.

Report

A Global Access Strategy for the U.S. Air Force

A set of recommendations for a global access strategy to render the USAF better equipped to meet its access and basing needs and hence to perform its missions both rapidly and effectively.

Report

Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century

This report draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.

Report

The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture

The past 20 years have been a time of relative peace in Asia and, notwithstanding the 1997-1998 financial crisis, a period of robust economic growth as well.

Report

Persian Gulf Security: Improving Allied Military Contributions

The authors lay out a practical and realistic blueprint for securing improved European force contributions to Persian Gulf security that appears well within the allies' political, financial, and military means.

Report

Dire Strait? : Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy

This report analyzes the steps Taiwan should take to bolster the odds in its favor should a conflict with the mainland occur and describes how the United States can most effectivelycontribute in both peace and crisis.

Journal Article

Global Access: Strategy 2000

Defense basing decisions reflect both military needs and political conditions.

Report

The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications

China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development.

Report

The Implications of the Possible End of the Arab-Israeli Conflict for Gulf Security

This report is intended to help the U.S. military — especially the U.S. Air Force — capitalize on changes in the Middle East security environment that may come about after a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.

Report

Enhancing Air Power’s Contribution Against Light Infantry Targets

The objective of this effort was to explore the signatures and vulnerabilities of adversary light forces, to identify promising sensor and weapon technologies applicable to this target set, and to develop new concepts of operation (OPCONs).

Research Brief

Finding Needles in Haystacks: Enhancing Air Power's Contribution Against Light Infantry

Discusses the challenges posed by light infantry opponents and presents new operational concepts that may help meet such challenges.

Report

A Framework for Precision Conventional Strike in Post-Cold War Military Strategy

Examines the value PCS weapons have in future military strategies and draws inferences about investment of system development and acquisition dollars.

Report

''Check Six begins on the ground'': Responding to the Evolving Ground Threat to U.S. Air Force Bases

Explores the possibility that future adversaries will use ground attacks on U.S. Air Force (USAF) bases as at least a partial countermeasure to overwhelming U.S. air superiority.

Report

Perspectives on Theater Air Campaign Planning

This report describes the findings of an independent, exploratory look at how the United States Air Force plans and executes air campaigns and operations.

Research Brief

Planning for Theater Air Campaigns

Interviewed planners at U.S. Air Force organizations -- at home and abroad -- to gain insights into air campaign planning and how the process might be improved.

Report

Back to First Principles: U.S. Strategic Forces in the Emerging Environment

This report presents an approach to thinking about U.S. strategic forces in the 1990s.

Report

Assessing the Structure and Mix of Future Active and Reserve Forces: Final Report to the Secretary of Defense

This study examines the structure and appropriate mix of active and reserve forces. It analyzes policy issues surrounding the Total Force (that is, active and reserve forces), to include history and effectiveness during the Persian Gulf War.

Report

Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough?

Describes a methodology for estimating the force levels that would be needed to defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf crisis, and it describes the results of a preliminary analysis performed using the methodology.

Report

Adapting the RAND Strategy Assessment System to Force Assessment Studies in the Joint Staff

Documents the results of an effort undertaken for the Capabilities Assessment Division (CAD) of the Joint Staff.

Report

Sample Campaign Plans and Staff Assessments for NATO's Southern Region

This Note is the product of an intensive six-month effort by the RAND Strategy Assessment Center in support of the National Defense University's (NDU) spring 1988 Allied Forces Southern Europe seminar war game.

Report

Green Agent User's Guide

This Note is a primer on the use of Green Agent, the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's model of nonsuperpower political-military behavior in crisis and conflict.

Research Brief

Building Confidence and Security in Europe

The value of NATO’s proposal at the Conference on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures and Disarmament in Europe in Stockholm may be judged as marginal and somewhat risky to the Alliance.

Report

Testing the Effects of Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in a Crisis: Two Political-Military Games

Presents the results of two political-military games played at RAND in the spring of 1986 to investigate how possible European confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) might affect interaction between the United States and the Soviet Union ...

Report

The RAND Strategy Assessment System's Green Agent Model of Third-Country Behavior in Superpower Crises and Conflict

This Note, a revision of N-2363, provides improved figures, up-to-date RAND Strategy Assessment System terminology, and includes updated decision rules valid as of July 1986.

Report

Plan Synchronization in the RSAC Environment

Addresses some of the issues involved in the synchronization of Analytic War Plans (AWPs) within the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's (RSAC) automated war-gaming system.

Report

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center and the future of simulation and gaming

This paper was originally presented at a meeting of the Section for Military Studies of the International Studies Association at the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana on November 9, 1985. It describes the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's (R...