Robert J. Lempert — Publications
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Do Small Outdoor Geoengineering Experiments Require Governance?
2024
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How Media Narratives Can Be Used in Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty Practice?
2024
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Informing Clean Energy Planning in California's San Joaquin Valley
2024
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The Use of Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty in the IPCC
2024
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The Budgetary Effects of Climate Change and Their Potential Influence on Legislation: Recommendations for a Model of the Federal Budget
2023
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City-Heat Equity Adaptation Tool (City-HEAT): Multi-objective Optimization of Environmental Modifications and Human Heat Exposure Reductions for Urban Heat Adaptation Under Uncertainty
2023
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Co-Designing Capabilities for a Robust Pandemic Response: Stakeholder Engagement for Visioning, Backcasting, and Evaluating New Decision-Support Capabilities
2023
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Community-Level, Participatory Co-Design for Landslide Warning with Implications for Climate Services
2023
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Elicitation of Climate Information to Support Water Agency Planning: Report of a Workshop with the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
2023
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From Least Cost to Least Risk: Producing Climate Change Mitigation Plans That Are Resilient to Multiple Risks
2023
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How Can AI Help People Become Better Versions of Themselves?
2023
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Residential Landslide Insurance in Sitka, Alaska: Market Conditions and Options for Improving Availability
2023
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Rhodium-SWMM: An Open-Source Tool for Green Infrastructure Placement Under Deep Uncertainty
2023
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Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches
2022
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Consistency of UK Climate Risk Approaches with New ISO Guidelines
2022
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Observed Impacts, Future Risks, and Adaptation Solutions: Highlights from the Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II Report
2022
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Transportation Planning for Uncertain Times: A Practical Guide to Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty for MPOs
2022
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Update on Findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2022
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Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
2021
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A Framework for Complex Climate Change Risk Assessment
2021
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Measuring Global Climate Risk
2021
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Recalibrating the Belt and Road Initiative Amidst Deep Uncertainties
2021
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Reopening California: Seeking Robust, Non-Dominated COVID-19 Exit Strategies
2021
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Reopening Under Uncertainty: Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Exit Strategy
2021
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Run Uphill for a Tsunami, Downhill for a Landslide
2021
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The Societal Benefits of Vehicle Connectivity
2021
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Defining the Solution Space to Accelerate Climate Change Adaptation
2020
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Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision-Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model
2020
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Implementing a New Mobility Vision for Rancho Higuera in a Deeply Uncertain, Fast-Changing World: Results from RAND Corporation Participatory Local Planning Workshops
2020
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Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making
2020
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Addressing Uncertainty in Developing Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies
2019
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Bezos World or Levelers: Can We Choose Our Scenario?
2019
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Could AI Drive Transformative Social Progress? What Would This Require?
2019
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Pathways to 2050: Alternative Scenarios for Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy
2019
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Resilience of the Eastern African Electricity Sector to Climate Driven Changes in Hydropower Generation
2019
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Robust Decision Making (RDM)
2019
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Sacramento Area Council of Governments Peer Review
2019
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Technology and Work Worth Doing (Not Jobs) Post-AlphaGo: A World-Building Workshop on the Future of Artificial Intelligence
2019
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Adapting Land Use and Water Management Plans to a Changing Climate in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida
2018
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Deep Decarbonization as a Risk Management Challenge
2018
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Is Climate Restoration an Appropriate Climate Policy Goal?
2018
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Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition
2018
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Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science
2017
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Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management
2017
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A Climate Stress Test of Los Angeles' Water Quality Plans
2017
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Demonstrating the Applicability of a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to Conservation Decision-Making Under Uncertain Future Climate: Pilot Study Using the Northern Pygmy Salamander (Desmognathus Organi)
2017
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Exploring America's Role in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink
2017
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Scenario Techniques for Energy and Environmental Research: An Overview of Recent Developments to Broaden the Capacity to Deal with Complexity and Uncertainty
2017
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Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
2017
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Testing the Scenario Hypothesis: An Experimental Comparison of Scenarios and Forecasts for Decision Support in a Complex Decision Environment
2017
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Understanding Scientists' Computational Modeling Decisions About Climate Risk Management Strategies Using Values-Informed Mental Models
2017
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Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning
2016
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Reinvigorating the Scenario Technique to Expand Uncertainty Consideration
2016
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Urban Responses to Climate Change: Framework for Decisionmaking and Supporting Indicators
2016
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Using High-Performance Computing to Support Water Resource Planning: A Workshop Demonstration of Real-Time Analytic Facilitation for the Colorado River Basin
2016
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Choices for America in a Turbulent World: Strategic Rethink
2015
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Developing Key Indicators for Adaptive Water Planning
2015
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The Effect of Near-Term Policy Choices on Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Transformation Pathways
2015
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Evaluating Simulation-Derived Scenarios for Effective Decision Support
2015
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Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program
2015
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Embedding (Some) Benefit-Cost Concepts Into Decision Support Processes with Deep Uncertainty
2014
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Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation
2013
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Creating Constituencies for Long-Term, Radical Change
2013
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Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh City
2013
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An Evolutionary Model of Industry Transformation and the Political Sustainability of Emission Control Policies
2013
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Improving Scenario Discovery Using Orthogonal Rotations
2013
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Improving the Contribution of Climate Model Information to Decision Making: The Value and Demands of Robust Decision Frameworks
2013
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Is it Ethical to Use a Single Probability Density Function?
2013
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Making Good Decisions Without Predictions: Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty
2013
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Managing Risk with Climate Vulnerability Science
2013
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Many Objective Robust Decision Making for Complex Environmental Systems Undergoing Change
2013
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Scenarios That Illuminate Vulnerabilities and Robust Responses
2013
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Characterizing Uncertain Sea Level Rise Projections to Support Investment Decisions
2012
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How Americans Will Live and Work in 2020: A Workshop Exploring Key Trends and Philanthropic Responses
2012
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Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Application to Climate Change
2012
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The Need for and Use of Socio-Economic Scenarios for Climate Change Analysis: A New Approach Based on Shared Socio-Economic Pathway
2012
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Recrafting Scenario Practice to Achieve Robust Long-Term Decisions
2012
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Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision-Making and Info-Gap Methods
2012
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Governing Geoengineering Research: A Political and Technical Vulnerability Analysis of Potential Near-Term Options
2011
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Managing Climate Risks in Developing Countries with Robust Decision Making
2011
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Some Thoughts on the Role of Robust Control Theory in Climate-Related Decision Support: An Editorial Comment
2011
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Technology Interactions Among Low-Carbon Energy Technologies: What Can We Learn from a Large Number of Scenarios?
2011
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Identifying and Evaluating Robust Adaptive Policy Responses to Climate Change for Water Management Agencies in the American West
2010
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Thinking Inside the Box: A Participatory, Computer-Assisted Approach to Scenario Discovery
2010
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Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate?
2009
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Methods for Long-Term Environmental Policy Challenges
2009
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Shaping Tomorrow Today: Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals
2009
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U.S. Pharmaceutical Policy in a Global Marketplace
2009
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Comparing Algorithms for Scenario Discovery
2008
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Comparing Alternative U.S. Counterterrorism Strategies: Can Assumption-Based Planning Help Elevate the Debate?
2008
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Evaluating Alternatives for Renewing TRIA in an Uncertain World
2008
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Identifying and Reducing Climate-Change Vulnerabilities in Water-Management Plans
2008
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Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use
2008
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Planning for Climate Change in the Inland Empire: Southern California
2008
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Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in the Inland Empire: Identifying Robust Water-Management Strategies
2008
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Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water-Resource Managers: A Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency
2008
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Regulating Drug Prices: U.S. Policy Alternatives in a Global Context
2008
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A Toolbox for Policy Planners
2008
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Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?
2007
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The Federal Role in Terrorism Insurance: Evaluating Alternatives in an Uncertain World
2007
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Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches
2007
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A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios
2007
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Trade-Offs Among Alternative Government Interventions in the Market for Terrorism Insurance: Interim Results
2007
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Despite Deep Scientific Uncertainty, Long-Term Problems Can Be Tackled
2006
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A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios
2006
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Multiple Equilibria in a Stochastic Implementation of DICE with Abrupt Climate Change
2006
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Assessment of Environmental Kuznets Curves and Socioeconomic Drivers in IPCC's SRES Scenarios
2005
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High-Performance Government: Structure, Leadership, Incentives
2005
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Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers
2004
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Next Generation Environmental Technologies: Benefits and Barriers
2003
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Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
2003
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Adaptive Strategies for Climate Change
2002
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Confronting Surprise
2002
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A New Decision Sciences for Complex Systems
2002
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Transition Paths to a New Era of Green Industry: Technological and Policy Implications
2002
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Assessing the Benefits and Costs of a Science Submarine
2001
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Climate-change Strategy Needs to Be Robust
2001
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Computer-assisted Reasoning
2001
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Finding Transatlantic Common Ground on Climate Change?
2001
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The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the Value of Information
2001
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Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change
2001
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Achieving the Texas Higher Education Vision
2000
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Carrots and Sticks for New Technology: Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Heterogeneous and Uncertain World
2000
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The Public Benefit of California's Investments in Energy Efficiency
2000
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RAND Review: Vol. 23, No. 3, Winter 1999-2000
2000
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Developing Countries & Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options for Growth
1999
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Technology Forces at Work: Profiles of Environmental Research and Development at DuPont, Intel, Monsanto, and Xerox
1999
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Technology Forces at Work: Profiles of Environmental Research and Development at DuPont, Intel, Monsanto, and Xerox: Executive Summary
1999
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The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education
1998
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New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning
1998
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When We Don't Know the Costs or the Benefits: Adaptive Strategies for Abating Climate Change
1996
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The Mediterranean environment : prospects for cooperation to solve the problems of the 1990s
1995
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Performance Measures for the Federal Investment in Environmental and Natural Resources Research and Development
1995
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Technology for a Sustainable Future — Ideas: A Summary of Workshop Discussions
1995
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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Its Sustainable Recovery: Volume 1
1994
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The impact of potential abrupt climate changes on near-term policy choices
1994
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Performance Measures for the Federal Investment in Science and Technology: A Draft Template for CENR
1994
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Global warming, let's take this decade to prepare
1993
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Report of a Workshop on Expanding U.S. Air Force Non-Combat Mission Capabilities
1993
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Transition to Sustainable Waste Management: A Simulation Gaming Approach
1993
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U.S. Spaced-Based Remote Sensing: Challenges and Prospects
1993
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Air Force Noncombat Operations: Lessons From the Past, Thoughts for the Future
1992
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Emerging Technology Systems and Arms Control
1991
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Cruise Missile Arms Control
1989
